Marathon Pace Help?
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Hi all,
I've kind of fallen off of the posting wagon, so I hope it's
okay to ask for advice. I've gotten some great advice here
in the past, and am hoping someone can help me if I'm
setting a realistic goal for my next marathon (3 wks. away).
This will be the first marathon I'm going to race; the
previous two were merely run/completed.
I know whenever anyone asks for help the first question is
usually something along the lines of "what's your training
like?" So I've pulled some numbers:
Weekly Mileage:
27.2, 30.1, 31.65, 30.37, 27.04, 38.03, 37.6, 32.82, 41.29,
40.31, 39.21,
28.01, 35.75, ~43 this week
Long Runs:
29/14 | 10.1 mi. | 1:34:32 | avg 9:22/mi.
30/21 | 11.24 mi. | 1:45:18 | avg 9:22/mi.
31/28 | 12.05 mi. | 1:51:23 | avg 9:15/mi. (last 3.05
@ avg 8:50)
32/07 | 10.06 mi. | 1:31:32 | avg 9:06/mi.
33/10 | 14.04 mi. | 2:11:01 | avg 9:20/mi.
34/20 | 15.07 mi. | 2:20:55 | avg 9:21/mi.
35/24 | 11.43 mi. | 1:44:25 | avg 9:08/mi.
36/03 | 17.03 mi. | 2:38:56 | avg 9:20/mi.
37/17 | 15.93 mi. | 2:27:06 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 3.93
@ avg 8:54)
38/24 | 20.83 mi. | 3:12:27 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 5 @ avg
8:45)
39/01 | 12.15 mi. | 1:45:46 | (6.07 @ avg. 9:08/mi., 6.08 @
avg. 8:17/mi.)
40/07 | 20.25 mi. | 3:08:52 | avg. 9:20/mi.
On the runs with fast finishes, all the fast miles were done
at <9:00, but some of the last miles were done at a faster
pace than the overall average for that section.
Speedy Stuff: (some tempo runs, some an at approx MP)
41/20 | 6.31 mi. | 54:03 | avg 8:34/mi.
42/06 | 5.10 mi. | 40:46 | avg 8:00/mi.
43/14 | 5K race | 23:04 | avg 7:26/mi - no taper
44/23 | 7.03 mi. | 53:51 | avg 7:40/mi.
45/02 | 8.03 mi. | 1:08:03 | avg 8:28/mi.
46/10 | 20K race | 1:37:47 | avg 7:53/mi. - no taper
47/23 | 5 mi. | 39:02 | avg 7:48/mi.
48/05 | 4 mi. | 33:37 | avg 8:24/mi.
The various calculators out there put me between 3:34 and
3:37, based on my 20K race. I'm not sure how much faith I
put in the calculators, however. I was thinking of shooting
for 8:30/mi, for an approx finishing time of 3:43. Is this a
realistic goal for me, based on my training? Or am I kidding
myself that I'm ready to run <3:45?
Any advice, suggestions would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
- marisa
with all that data shoot for a 8:45 pace unless ellevation
is high / course is very hilly less of course you train at
high allt. and hills plodzilla
Marisa wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> I've kind of fallen off of the posting wagon, so I hope
> it's okay to ask for advice. I've gotten some great advice
> here in the past, and am hoping someone can help me if I'm
> setting a realistic goal for my next marathon (3 wks.
> away). This will be the first marathon I'm going to race;
> the previous two were merely run/completed.
>
> I know whenever anyone asks for help the first question is
> usually something along the lines of "what's your training
> like?" So I've pulled some numbers:
>
> Weekly Mileage:
> 27.2, 30.1, 31.65, 30.37, 27.04, 38.03, 37.6, 32.82,
> 41.29, 40.31, 39.21,
> 44.01, 35.75, ~43 this week
>
> Long Runs:
> 02/14 | 10.1 mi. | 1:34:32 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/21 | 11.24 mi. | 1:45:18 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/28 | 12.05 mi. | 1:51:23 | avg 9:15/mi. (last 3.05 @
> avg 8:50)
> 03/07 | 10.06 mi. | 1:31:32 | avg 9:06/mi.
> 03/10 | 14.04 mi. | 2:11:01 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 03/20 | 15.07 mi. | 2:20:55 | avg 9:21/mi.
> 03/24 | 11.43 mi. | 1:44:25 | avg 9:08/mi.
> 04/03 | 17.03 mi. | 2:38:56 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 04/17 | 15.93 mi. | 2:27:06 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 3.93 @
> avg 8:54)
> 04/24 | 20.83 mi. | 3:12:27 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 5 @ avg
> 8:45)
> 05/01 | 12.15 mi. | 1:45:46 | (6.07 @ avg. 9:08/mi., 6.08
> @ avg. 8:17/mi.)
> 05/07 | 20.25 mi. | 3:08:52 | avg. 9:20/mi.
>
> On the runs with fast finishes, all the fast miles were
> done at <9:00, but some of the last miles were done at a
> faster pace than the overall average for that section.
>
> Speedy Stuff: (some tempo runs, some an at approx MP)
> 02/20 | 6.31 mi. | 54:03 | avg 8:34/mi.
> 03/06 | 5.10 mi. | 40:46 | avg 8:00/mi.
> 03/14 | 5K race | 23:04 | avg 7:26/mi - no taper
> 03/23 | 7.03 mi. | 53:51 | avg 7:40/mi.
> 04/02 | 8.03 mi. | 1:08:03 | avg 8:28/mi.
> 04/10 | 20K race | 1:37:47 | avg 7:53/mi. - no taper
> 04/23 | 5 mi. | 39:02 | avg 7:48/mi.
> 05/05 | 4 mi. | 33:37 | avg 8:24/mi.
>
> The various calculators out there put me between 3:34
> and 3:37, based on my 20K race. I'm not sure how much
> faith I put in the calculators, however. I was
> thinking of shooting for 8:30/mi, for an approx
> finishing time of 3:43. Is this a realistic goal for
> me, based on my training? Or am I kidding myself that
> I'm ready to run <3:45?
>
> Any advice, suggestions would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
>
> - marisa
Marisa wrote:
> Any advice, suggestions would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
Always a tricky one to answer but for what it's worth, your
training times and distances are similar to my
times/distances prior to my first marathon with the
exception of your 5K time (which is considerably slower).
Your 20K time is however only a little slower (2 minutes).
I managed a 3:32 for my first so I don't think that an 8:30
pace is unrealistic. Of course you have to take the nature
of the course in to account and the weather on the day.
Good luck! (and don't do anything crazy during your taper).
Tim
--
Remove the obvious to reply by email.
"Marisa" <distance_runner78_spam@spam.yahoo.com> wrote in
news:109oefb5lslgb77@corp.supernews.com:
> Hi all,
>
> I've kind of fallen off of the posting wagon, so I hope
> it's okay to ask for advice. I've gotten some great advice
> here in the past, and am hoping someone can help me if I'm
> setting a realistic goal for my next marathon (3 wks.
> away). This will be the first marathon I'm going to race;
> the previous two were merely run/completed.
>
> I know whenever anyone asks for help the first question is
> usually something along the lines of "what's your training
> like?" So I've pulled some numbers:
>
> Weekly Mileage:
> 27.2, 30.1, 31.65, 30.37, 27.04, 38.03, 37.6, 32.82,
> 41.29, 40.31,
> 39.21, 44.01, 35.75, ~43 this week
>
> Long Runs:
> 02/14 | 10.1 mi. | 1:34:32 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/21 | 11.24 mi. | 1:45:18 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/28 | 12.05 mi. | 1:51:23 | avg 9:15/mi. (last 3.05 @
> avg 8:50)
> 03/07 | 10.06 mi. | 1:31:32 | avg 9:06/mi.
> 03/10 | 14.04 mi. | 2:11:01 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 03/20 | 15.07 mi. | 2:20:55 | avg 9:21/mi.
> 03/24 | 11.43 mi. | 1:44:25 | avg 9:08/mi.
> 04/03 | 17.03 mi. | 2:38:56 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 04/17 | 15.93 mi. | 2:27:06 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 3.93 @
> avg 8:54)
> 04/24 | 20.83 mi. | 3:12:27 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 5 @ avg
> 8:45)
> 05/01 | 12.15 mi. | 1:45:46 | (6.07 @ avg. 9:08/mi., 6.08
> @ avg.
> 8:17/mi.) 05/07 | 20.25 mi. | 3:08:52 | avg. 9:20/mi.
>
> On the runs with fast finishes, all the fast miles were
> done at <9:00, but some of the last miles were done at a
> faster pace than the overall average for that section.
>
> Speedy Stuff: (some tempo runs, some an at approx MP)
> 02/20 | 6.31 mi. | 54:03 | avg 8:34/mi.
> 03/06 | 5.10 mi. | 40:46 | avg 8:00/mi.
> 03/14 | 5K race | 23:04 | avg 7:26/mi - no taper
> 03/23 | 7.03 mi. | 53:51 | avg 7:40/mi.
> 04/02 | 8.03 mi. | 1:08:03 | avg 8:28/mi.
> 04/10 | 20K race | 1:37:47 | avg 7:53/mi. - no taper
> 04/23 | 5 mi. | 39:02 | avg 7:48/mi.
> 05/05 | 4 mi. | 33:37 | avg 8:24/mi.
>
> The various calculators out there put me between 3:34
> and 3:37, based on my 20K race. I'm not sure how much
> faith I put in the calculators, however. I was
> thinking of shooting for 8:30/mi, for an approx
> finishing time of 3:43. Is this a realistic goal for
> me, based on my training? Or am I kidding myself that
> I'm ready to run <3:45?
The prediction calculators always assume you've trained
appropriately for the race in question. Most of your
training looks very good. With 2 or 3 more 20+ long runs and
weekly mileage in the 50 - 60 range, then I would feel
confident in suggesting a sub 3:40 prediction. However, I
think it's always best to be conservative. The fact that you
ran a 20K in 1:37:47 with no taper suggests that you can run
a marathon even faster than the predication calculator
suggests (again assuming the appropriate training). But we
still have that unknown territory - the last 10K of the
marathon. What was the end of the marathon like for you in
your other finishes?
The last factor is the race itself. I looked at the race
results from the 2003 Med-City Marathon. The times are
fairly slow. This could be for a few reasons. There were
only 334 finishers, so maybe only the locals run
it. The winners are not elite marathoners. The top male was
2:45, the top female was 3:14. If you actually finished
in what the calculators predicted, that would put you at
least with the top 5 females. What is the elevation map
like on this course? This could be a big reason for the
slow times.
Phil M.
--
"Pain is temporary: the success it brings can be
everlasting." -fortune cookie
The 20K race is the best predictor. Take the time and run it through
several calculators as you did. Assuming you have the training for the
marathon properly done, 8:30 looks do able to me. Depending on the course
and the weather naturally. I had an athlete I was coaching who was ready to
go sub 3:30 at Boston. Hot day--went out the window since she had no heat
acclimitization. Sometimes you gotta adjust like that.
"Marisa" <distance_runner78_spam@spam.yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:109oefb5lslgb77@corp.supernews.com...
> Hi all,
>
> I've kind of fallen off of the posting wagon, so I hope
> it's okay to ask
for
> advice. I've gotten some great advice here in the past,
> and am hoping someone can help me if I'm setting a
> realistic goal for my next marathon
(3
> wks. away). This will be the first marathon I'm going to
> race; the
previous
> two were merely run/completed.
>
> I know whenever anyone asks for help the first question
> is usually
something
> along the lines of "what's your training like?" So I've
> pulled some numbers:
>
> Weekly Mileage:
> 27.2, 30.1, 31.65, 30.37, 27.04, 38.03, 37.6, 32.82,
> 41.29, 40.31, 39.21,
> 44.01, 35.75, ~43 this week
>
> Long Runs:
> 02/14 | 10.1 mi. | 1:34:32 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/21 | 11.24 mi. | 1:45:18 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/28 | 12.05 mi. | 1:51:23 | avg 9:15/mi. (last 3.05 @
> avg 8:50)
> 03/07 | 10.06 mi. | 1:31:32 | avg 9:06/mi.
> 03/10 | 14.04 mi. | 2:11:01 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 03/20 | 15.07 mi. | 2:20:55 | avg 9:21/mi.
> 03/24 | 11.43 mi. | 1:44:25 | avg 9:08/mi.
> 04/03 | 17.03 mi. | 2:38:56 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 04/17 | 15.93 mi. | 2:27:06 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 3.93 @
> avg 8:54)
> 04/24 | 20.83 mi. | 3:12:27 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 5 @ avg
> 8:45)
> 05/01 | 12.15 mi. | 1:45:46 | (6.07 @ avg. 9:08/mi., 6.08
> @ avg. 8:17/mi.)
> 05/07 | 20.25 mi. | 3:08:52 | avg. 9:20/mi.
>
> On the runs with fast finishes, all the fast miles were
> done at <9:00, but some of the last miles were done at a
> faster pace than the overall average for that section.
>
> Speedy Stuff: (some tempo runs, some an at approx MP)
> 02/20 | 6.31 mi. | 54:03 | avg 8:34/mi.
> 03/06 | 5.10 mi. | 40:46 | avg 8:00/mi.
> 03/14 | 5K race | 23:04 | avg 7:26/mi - no taper
> 03/23 | 7.03 mi. | 53:51 | avg 7:40/mi.
> 04/02 | 8.03 mi. | 1:08:03 | avg 8:28/mi.
> 04/10 | 20K race | 1:37:47 | avg 7:53/mi. - no taper
> 04/23 | 5 mi. | 39:02 | avg 7:48/mi.
> 05/05 | 4 mi. | 33:37 | avg 8:24/mi.
>
> The various calculators out there put me between 3:34 and
> 3:37, based on
my
> 20K race. I'm not sure how much faith I put in the
> calculators, however.
I
> was thinking of shooting for 8:30/mi, for an approx
> finishing time of
3:43.
> Is this a realistic goal for me, based on my training? Or
> am I kidding myself that I'm ready to run <3:45?
>
> Any advice, suggestions would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
>
> - marisa
Thanks for all the replies, I appreciate the feedback.
Getting ready for this marathon has been completely
different from any training I've done before, and it helps
to hear from more experienced runners.
> The prediction calculators always assume you've trained
> appropriately for the race in question. Most of your
> training looks very good. With 2 or 3 more 20+ long runs
> and weekly mileage in the 50 - 60 range, then I would feel
> confident in suggesting a sub 3:40 prediction. However, I
> think it's always best to be conservative. The fact that
> you ran a 20K in 1:37:47 with no taper suggests that you
> can run a marathon even faster than the predication
> calculator suggests (again assuming the appropriate
> training). But we still have that unknown territory - the
> last 10K of the marathon. What was the end of the marathon
> like for you in your other finishes?
Being conservative is why I am afraid to completely trust
the calculators. I'm afraid of going out too fast and
blowing up. As for my previous finishes, the last 10K in my
first marathon was probably my best set of 6 miles. I hit
the 20 mark feeling awesome, and picked up my pace. I
actually ran negative splits (finished in 4:24, hit the
half point at
2:14-2:15). In the second marathon, I had some problems
in the last bit but I think that was due to it being
colder and windier than I'd anticipated and I was under-
dressed and my legs never fully warmed-up. (2:08/2:10
half splits).
> The last factor is the race itself. I looked at the race
> results from the 2003 Med-City Marathon. The times are
> fairly slow. This could be for a few reasons. There were
> only 334 finishers, so maybe only the locals run
> it. The winners are not elite marathoners. The top male
> was 2:45, the top female was 3:14. If you actually
> finished in what the calculators predicted, that would
> put you at least with the top 5 females. What is the
> elevation map like on this course? This could be a big
> reason for the slow times.
Well, Grandma's is 3 weeks after Med-City and I think it's
probably a much bigger draw for MN runners. As far as times,
the field at Med-City seems to vary from year to year. I
took a look at the results the other day and last year the
top 5 in my age group (<29F) were 3:33, 3:38, 3:45, 3:51 and
3:52. But in 2002, the top woman ran 2:56 and the top 5 in
my group were 3:27,
3:28, 3:29, 3:33:16 and 3:33:20. There are some spots where
the course might get tight, but I don't see anything along
the course that would be a real problem. I actually ran
the last half of it yesterday during my 20, and it is
completely flat. I've done some of pace/tempo runs along
the last 6 miles, and that area seems pretty conducive to
fast running.
> Always a tricky one to answer but for what it's worth,
> your training times and distances are similar to my
> times/distances prior to my first marathon with the
> exception of your 5K time (which is considerably
> slower). Your
20K
> time is however only a little slower (2 minutes).
>
> I managed a 3:32 for my first so I don't think that an
> 8:30 pace is unrealistic. Of course you have to take the
> nature of the course in to account and the weather on
> the day.
Weather does slightly concern me because the majority of my
long runs were been done in <40F degree weather. We've only
had 2 really hot days (>70) so far. The average race day
temp is 50-something degrees, but you never know with MN
weather. We had 3 days in a row where the highs were 50-
something, 84 and 50-something. So I'm not fully acclimated
to heat yet. I'm hoping for a string of hot weather over
the next 3 weeks so I have time to adjust in case race day
is a hot day.
I'll be setting 3 goals for the race: bare minimum, within
reach, and best-race-ever/great day. A time in the 3:3xs
would definitely be a great day.
Anyway, thanks again everyone. I appreciate the reassurances
that 8:30 isn't totally unrealistic. I'll keep you all
posted on what happens.
marisa
In article <109oefb5lslgb77@corp.supernews.com>, Marisa wrote:
> The various calculators out there put me between 3:34
> and 3:37, based on my 20K race. I'm not sure how much
> faith I put in the calculators, however. I was
> thinking of shooting for 8:30/mi, for an approx
> finishing time of 3:43. Is this a realistic goal for
> me, based on my training? Or am I kidding myself that
> I'm ready to run <3:45?
>
> Any advice, suggestions would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
Your mistrust is well-founded. I punched your 20 time into
the Daniels calculator and the WAVA tables. Also used the
Daniels calculator to predict your half marathon time, then
use the 2.2xhalf marathon formulas.
The results:
Daniels: 3:34:39 WAVA: 3:38:24 Daniels hmar * 2.2: 3:37:30.
The Daniels calculator is overly optimistic for predicting a
marathon based on shorter races IMO, so I wouldn't trust the
3:34 prediction. The other two predictions are more
realistic. To do better than these, you'd need a bit of a
boost from the taper.
My suggestion would be to go into this race with a clearly
defined plan -- some people go in to races with wildly
different goals e.g. I'd like to run
3:10 but maybe I'll get a sub 3. This can be a recipe for
disaster. In this example, there is no pacing plan that is
effective for both 3:00 (6:52 pace) and 3:10 (7:15 pace)
If you want a sub 3:40, you need to get to the halfway point
not much more than about 5 seconds per mile slower than goal
the pace. A 3:40 is 8:24 pace, so if you go out at 8:30
pace, you are giving yourself a fair chance of breaking
4:40 but also giving yourself a chance at a relatively
painless 3:45 if it doesn't go so well on the day.
Good luck,
--
Donovan Rebbechi http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/
In article <109oefb5lslgb77@corp.supernews.com>,
Marisa <distance_runner78_spam@spam.yahoo.com> wrote:
>Speedy Stuff: (some tempo runs, some an at approx MP)
>03/14 | 5K race | 23:04 | avg 7:26/mi - no taper
>04/10 | 20K race | 1:37:47 | avg 7:53/mi. - no taper
[various unmarked snips]
>The various calculators out there put me between 3:34 and
>3:37, based on my 20K race. I'm not sure how much faith I
>put in the calculators, however. I was thinking of shooting
>for 8:30/mi, for an approx finishing time of 3:43. Is this
>a realistic goal for me, based on my training? Or am I
>kidding myself that I'm ready to run <3:45?
I used one of my more pessimistic calculators for paces,
and it still came up with 3:45. There are a lot of
schemes, most don't have much validity (imho) so you have
to take any one of them with a grain of salt. But, barring
the marathon course being more difficult than your 20k
race, worse weather on marathon day, and the like, it
seems that a 3:45 is a reasonable, conservative, target.
Very much in your favor is that you've run 2 marathons
before, and have already pulled off a negative split
marathon. For planning purposes, assuming a flat course,
start on a 3:45 pace, hold it the first 20 miles, and then
(as you did once before), crank it up for the last 10k.
--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and
amateur activities notes and links. Sagredo (Galileo
Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less
appreciated than they would be had they been presented in a
more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences
I use a simple race predictor that works well for me, much
better than the online calculators. Very consistently I
finish in the uppper 4-6% of the field. I check out the
previous year's race results and see what time a top 5%
finish would be. This works well if you will be running a
course with variables such as elevation or hills that an
online calculator doesn't factor in. For me anyways, this
has worked pretty good for 10K, half, 30k, and marathon
distances. It wasn't as accurate when I did a 50 miler
(finished at 15%) but it was a small field, an unfamiliar
distance, and I did not pace myself well. I mostly run races
with only several hundred to perhaps a couple thousand
people so I don't know how accurate it it would be for an
event with 10's of thousands.
"Marisa" <distance_runner78_spam@spam.yahoo.com> wrote in
message news:<109oefb5lslgb77@corp.supernews.com>...
> Hi all,
>
> I've kind of fallen off of the posting wagon, so I hope
> it's okay to ask for advice. I've gotten some great advice
> here in the past, and am hoping someone can help me if I'm
> setting a realistic goal for my next marathon (3 wks.
> away). This will be the first marathon I'm going to race;
> the previous two were merely run/completed.
>
> I know whenever anyone asks for help the first question is
> usually something along the lines of "what's your training
> like?" So I've pulled some numbers:
>
> Weekly Mileage:
> 27.2, 30.1, 31.65, 30.37, 27.04, 38.03, 37.6, 32.82,
> 41.29, 40.31, 39.21,
> 44.01, 35.75, ~43 this week
>
> Long Runs:
> 02/14 | 10.1 mi. | 1:34:32 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/21 | 11.24 mi. | 1:45:18 | avg 9:22/mi.
> 02/28 | 12.05 mi. | 1:51:23 | avg 9:15/mi. (last 3.05 @
> avg 8:50)
> 03/07 | 10.06 mi. | 1:31:32 | avg 9:06/mi.
> 03/10 | 14.04 mi. | 2:11:01 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 03/20 | 15.07 mi. | 2:20:55 | avg 9:21/mi.
> 03/24 | 11.43 mi. | 1:44:25 | avg 9:08/mi.
> 04/03 | 17.03 mi. | 2:38:56 | avg 9:20/mi.
> 04/17 | 15.93 mi. | 2:27:06 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 3.93 @
> avg 8:54)
> 04/24 | 20.83 mi. | 3:12:27 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 5 @ avg
> 8:45)
> 05/01 | 12.15 mi. | 1:45:46 | (6.07 @ avg. 9:08/mi., 6.08
> @ avg. 8:17/mi.)
> 05/07 | 20.25 mi. | 3:08:52 | avg. 9:20/mi.
>
> On the runs with fast finishes, all the fast miles were
> done at <9:00, but some of the last miles were done at a
> faster pace than the overall average for that section.
>
> Speedy Stuff: (some tempo runs, some an at approx MP)
> 02/20 | 6.31 mi. | 54:03 | avg 8:34/mi.
> 03/06 | 5.10 mi. | 40:46 | avg 8:00/mi.
> 03/14 | 5K race | 23:04 | avg 7:26/mi - no taper
> 03/23 | 7.03 mi. | 53:51 | avg 7:40/mi.
> 04/02 | 8.03 mi. | 1:08:03 | avg 8:28/mi.
> 04/10 | 20K race | 1:37:47 | avg 7:53/mi. - no taper
> 04/23 | 5 mi. | 39:02 | avg 7:48/mi.
> 05/05 | 4 mi. | 33:37 | avg 8:24/mi.
>
> The various calculators out there put me between 3:34
> and 3:37, based on my 20K race. I'm not sure how much
> faith I put in the calculators, however. I was
> thinking of shooting for 8:30/mi, for an approx
> finishing time of 3:43. Is this a realistic goal for
> me, based on my training? Or am I kidding myself that
> I'm ready to run <3:45?
>
> Any advice, suggestions would be greatly appreciated. TIA.
>
> - marisa
Why be so conservative? The 20K performance is a pretty good
indicator and indicates that she can run better than 3:45
(her apparent goal). She is perhaps already being
conservative.
"gentolm" <gentolm@boeing.com> wrote in message
news:409C69B3.1EDD1507@boeing.com...
> with all that data shoot for a 8:45 pace unless ellevation
> is high / course is very hilly less of course you train at
> high allt. and hills plodzilla
>
> Marisa wrote:
> >
> > Hi all,
> >
> > I've kind of fallen off of the posting wagon, so I hope
> > it's okay to ask
for
> > advice. I've gotten some great advice here in the past,
> > and am hoping someone can help me if I'm setting a
> > realistic goal for my next marathon
(3
> > wks. away). This will be the first marathon I'm going to
> > race; the
previous
> > two were merely run/completed.
> >
> > I know whenever anyone asks for help the first question
> > is usually
something
> > along the lines of "what's your training like?" So I've
> > pulled some numbers:
> >
> > Weekly Mileage:
> > 27.2, 30.1, 31.65, 30.37, 27.04, 38.03, 37.6, 32.82,
> > 41.29, 40.31,
39.21,
> > 44.01, 35.75, ~43 this week
> >
> > Long Runs:
> > 02/14 | 10.1 mi. | 1:34:32 | avg 9:22/mi.
> > 02/21 | 11.24 mi. | 1:45:18 | avg 9:22/mi.
> > 02/28 | 12.05 mi. | 1:51:23 | avg 9:15/mi. (last 3.05 @
> > avg 8:50)
> > 03/07 | 10.06 mi. | 1:31:32 | avg 9:06/mi.
> > 03/10 | 14.04 mi. | 2:11:01 | avg 9:20/mi.
> > 03/20 | 15.07 mi. | 2:20:55 | avg 9:21/mi.
> > 03/24 | 11.43 mi. | 1:44:25 | avg 9:08/mi.
> > 04/03 | 17.03 mi. | 2:38:56 | avg 9:20/mi.
> > 04/17 | 15.93 mi. | 2:27:06 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 3.93 @
> > avg 8:54)
> > 04/24 | 20.83 mi. | 3:12:27 | avg 9:14/mi. (last 5 @ avg
> > 8:45)
> > 05/01 | 12.15 mi. | 1:45:46 | (6.07 @ avg. 9:08/mi.,
> > 6.08 @ avg.
39:1/i.)
> > 05/07 | 20.25 mi. | 3:08:52 | avg. 9:20/mi.
> >
> > On the runs with fast finishes, all the fast miles were
> > done at <9:00,
but
> > some of the last miles were done at a faster pace than
> > the overall
average
> > for that section.
> >
> > Speedy Stuff: (some tempo runs, some an at approx MP)
> > 02/20 | 6.31 mi. | 54:03 | avg 8:34/mi.
> > 03/06 | 5.10 mi. | 40:46 | avg 8:00/mi.
> > 03/14 | 5K race | 23:04 | avg 7:26/mi - no taper
> > 03/23 | 7.03 mi. | 53:51 | avg 7:40/mi.
> > 04/02 | 8.03 mi. | 1:08:03 | avg 8:28/mi.
> > 04/10 | 20K race | 1:37:47 | avg 7:53/mi. - no taper
> > 04/23 | 5 mi. | 39:02 | avg 7:48/mi.
> > 05/05 | 4 mi. | 33:37 | avg 8:24/mi.
> >
> > The various calculators out there put me between 3:34
> > and 3:37, based on
my
> > 20K race. I'm not sure how much faith I put in the
> > calculators,
however. I
> > was thinking of shooting for 8:30/mi, for an approx
> > finishing time of
39:2.
> > Is this a realistic goal for me, based on my training?
> > Or am I kidding myself that I'm ready to run <3:45?
> >
> > Any advice, suggestions would be greatly
> > appreciated. TIA.
> >
> > - marisa
"Marisa" <distance_runner78_spam@spam.yahoo.com> wrote in
news:109q6t6a1sh0fbf@corp.supernews.com:
> Thanks for all the replies, I appreciate the feedback.
> Getting ready for this marathon has been completely
> different from any training I've done before, and it helps
> to hear from more experienced runners.
>
>> The prediction calculators always assume you've trained
>> appropriately for the race in question. Most of your
>> training looks very good. With 2 or 3 more 20+ long runs
>> and weekly mileage in the 50 - 60 range, then I would
>> feel confident in suggesting a sub 3:40 prediction.
>> However, I think it's always best to be conservative. The
>> fact that you ran a 20K in 1:37:47 with no taper suggests
>> that you can run a marathon even faster than the
>> predication calculator suggests (again assuming the
>> appropriate training). But we still have that unknown
>> territory - the last 10K of the marathon. What was the
>> end of the marathon like for you in your other finishes?
>
> Being conservative is why I am afraid to completely trust
> the calculators. I'm afraid of going out too fast and
> blowing up.
What you could do is split the race into 3 parts and do each
part progresslively faster, like this:
1st 10 miles - 8:40/mi pace 2nd 10 miles - 8:30/mi pace Last
10K - 8:20/mi pace finish time - 3:43:29 (8:31/mi)
or like this for your "best-race-ever" goal:
1st 10 miles - 8:30/mi pace 2nd 10 miles - 8:15/mi pace Last
10K - 8:00/mi pace finish time - 3:37:15 (8:17/mi)
As you finish the first 10 miles try to judge your
condition. Can you run a little faster for the next 10
miles? If you feel up to it, then go for it, or at least try
going a little faster and see if you can get into the rhythm
of a faster pace. If after a mile or so, you aren't feeling
up to it, then move back to the pace of the 1st 10 miles.
After 20 miles do the same thing.
> Well, Grandma's is 3 weeks after Med-City and I think it's
> probably a much bigger draw for MN runners.
Ah yes. One of the most popular marathons in the US.
> Anyway, thanks again everyone. I appreciate the
> reassurances that
> 8:30 isn't totally unrealistic. I'll keep you all posted
> on what happens.
Please do!
Phil M.
--
"Pain is temporary: the success it brings can be
everlasting." -fortune cookie
"Marisa" <distance_runner78_spam@spam.yahoo.com> wrote in message news:<109q6t6a1sh0fbf@corp.supernews.com>...
> I'll be setting 3 goals for the race: bare minimum, within
> reach, and best-race-ever/great day.
As Donovan pointed out, this is a recipe for disaster if you
let that "best-race-ever" goal dictate your early pace - and
it just happens to be a normal day for you. If you havenŽt
*really* settled for your "within reach" goal, the odds are
that the magic of the moment will hijack your sense like it
has done to so many marathoners...
But thereŽs nothing wrong with the idea of three goals as
such: just wait until the "true marathon half-point" between
30 km and 20 miles to see whether youŽll have to accept the
"bare minimum", whether you can go, girl, go for the "great
day" or whether youŽll "just" continue fight it to the end
to get what is "within reach".
Anders
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