General Statistics on Cardiac Arrest ...

[M100c]

All,

My organization is considering purchasing an automatic
external defibrillator. Here is my question:

Given 800 attendees on site, once-a-week for 1.5 hrs, can
someone calculate the likelihood that someone will suffer a
cardiac arrest (on site) during the next 1, 3 or 5 years? I
would assume that my population has the same baseline risk
as any generalized population in the US.

If time-of-day is a weighting factor, then these attendees
will be on site between 9AM and 12PM.

If you can cite a reference, and provide the answer as a
function (so I could recalculate liklihood after changing
attendees and time on site), please post.

Thank you in advance,

Chris

[Ted Rosenberg]

cc'd by email

M100C wrote:
> All,
>
> My organization is considering purchasing an automatic
> external defibrillator. Here is my question:
>
> Given 800 attendees on site, once-a-week for 1.5 hrs, can
> someone calculate the likelihood that someone will suffer
> a cardiac arrest (on site) during the next 1, 3 or 5
> years? I would assume that my population has the same
> baseline risk as any generalized population in the US.

Obviously an incorrect assumption - I would assume that
your organization is primarily adult. Age and gender are
critical factors.

Also, average age is only ONE consideration, an organization
with an average age of 40 could all be 40, or could range
from 20 to 90

>
> If time-of-day is a weighting factor, then these attendees
> will be on site between 9AM and 12PM.

Possibly TOD is a factor, but no reliable stats exist
on tis yet

>
> If you can cite a reference, and provide the answer as a
> function (so I could recalculate liklihood after changing
> attendees and time on site), please post.
>

WHERE are you having this convention? - at Big Meadows Lodge
on top of a mountain in Virginia. or at the Baltimore
Convention Center, where you are three blocks from the R
Adams Crowly Shock-Trauma center?

Likewise, have you checked to see if the facilities you are
using already have one - telling bidders that having a unit
counts points in evaluating convention sites will have a
salutatory effect.

What has past experience been?

and, finally, what is your total budget? is the cost really
material to your organization, or the peace of mind more
important.
> Thank you in advance,
>
> Chris
>
>

--
"...in addition to being foreign territory the past is, as
history, a hall of mirrors that reflect the needs of souls
observing from the present" Glen Cook

[Sandy]

Ted Rosenberg <tedrosenberg@iname.com> wrote in message news:<40D75841.60208@iname.com>...
> cc'd by email
>
> M100C wrote:
> > All,
> >
> > My organization is considering purchasing an automatic
> > external defibrillator. Here is my question:
> >
> > Given 800 attendees on site, once-a-week for 1.5 hrs,
> > can someone calculate the likelihood that someone will
> > suffer a cardiac arrest (on site) during the next 1, 3
> > or 5 years? I would assume that my population has the
> > same baseline risk as any generalized population in
> > the US.

Okay... don't have any activities on a Monday morning. Serve
red wine and ****take mushrooms and eat dessert first, and
make everybody laugh. And you will not have anyone suffer
cardiac arrest.

[Brad Sheppard]

Ted: re avg age - very good point. 3/4's of CHD occur at ages over
65. Another factor - the socio-economic level of attendees
- the higher, the lower the incidence of CHD.

Ted Rosenberg <tedrosenberg@iname.com> wrote in message
news:<40D75841.60208@iname.com>...
> cc'd by email
>
> M100C wrote:
> > All,
> >
> > My organization is considering purchasing an automatic
> > external defibrillator. Here is my question:
> >
> > Given 800 attendees on site, once-a-week for 1.5 hrs,
> > can someone calculate the likelihood that someone will
> > suffer a cardiac arrest (on site) during the next 1, 3
> > or 5 years? I would assume that my population has the
> > same baseline risk as any generalized population in
> > the US.
>
> Obviously an incorrect assumption - I would assume that
> your organization is primarily adult. Age and gender are
> critical factors.
>
> Also, average age is only ONE consideration, an
> organization with an average age of 40 could all be 40, or
> could range from 20 to 90
>
> >
> > If time-of-day is a weighting factor, then these
> > attendees will be on site between 9AM and 12PM.
>
> Possibly TOD is a factor, but no reliable stats exist
> on tis yet
>
> >
> > If you can cite a reference, and provide the answer as a
> > function (so I could recalculate liklihood after
> > changing attendees and time on site), please post.
> >
>
> WHERE are you having this convention? - at Big Meadows
> Lodge on top of a mountain in Virginia. or at the
> Baltimore Convention Center, where you are three blocks
> from the R Adams Crowly Shock-Trauma center?
>
> Likewise, have you checked to see if the facilities you
> are using already have one - telling bidders that having a
> unit counts points in evaluating convention sites will
> have a salutatory effect.
>
> What has past experience been?
>
>
> and, finally, what is your total budget? is the cost
> really material to your organization, or the peace of mind
> more important.
> > Thank you in advance,
> >
> > Chris
> >

[Ted Rosenberg]

There is a mystic belief in Gauss curves and
population cohorts.

In fact, general populations are usually like inverse Perl
curves, and specific populations (such as members of an
organization) tend to be Poisson curves.

Brad Sheppard wrote:

> Ted: re avg age - very good point. 3/4's of CHD occur at
> ages over
> 65. Another factor - the socio-economic level of
> attendees - the higher, the lower the incidence of
> CHD.
>
> Ted Rosenberg <tedrosenberg@iname.com> wrote in message
> news:<40D75841.60208@iname.com>...
>
>>cc'd by email
>>
>>M100C wrote:
>>
>>>All,
>>>
>>>My organization is considering purchasing an automatic
>>>external defibrillator. Here is my question:
>>>
>>>Given 800 attendees on site, once-a-week for 1.5 hrs, can
>>>someone calculate the likelihood that someone will suffer
>>>a cardiac arrest (on site) during the next 1, 3 or 5
>>>years? I would assume that my population has the same
>>>baseline risk as any generalized population in the US.
>>
>>Obviously an incorrect assumption - I would assume that
>>your organization is primarily adult. Age and gender are
>>critical factors.
>>
>>Also, average age is only ONE consideration, an
>>organization with an average age of 40 could all be 40, or
>>could range from 20 to 90
>>
>>
>>>If time-of-day is a weighting factor, then these
>>>attendees will be on site between 9AM and 12PM.
>>
>>Possibly TOD is a factor, but no reliable stats exist
>>on tis yet
>>
>>
>>>If you can cite a reference, and provide the answer as a
>>>function (so I could recalculate liklihood after changing
>>>attendees and time on site), please post.
>>>
>>
>>WHERE are you having this convention? - at Big Meadows
>>Lodge on top of a mountain in Virginia. or at the
>>Baltimore Convention Center, where you are three blocks
>>from the R Adams Crowly Shock-Trauma center?
>>
>>Likewise, have you checked to see if the facilities you
>>are using already have one - telling bidders that having a
>>unit counts points in evaluating convention sites will
>>have a salutatory effect.
>>
>>What has past experience been?
>>
>>
>>and, finally, what is your total budget? is the cost
>>really material to your organization, or the peace of mind
>>more important.
>>
>>>Thank you in advance,
>>>
>>>Chris
>>>
>>>

--
"...in addition to being foreign territory the past is, as
history, a hall of mirrors that reflect the needs of souls
observing from the present" Glen Cook