View Full Version : Arabnews.com "Bush will win"
Arabnews.com "Bush will win"
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=46483&d=9&m=6&y=2004
A few weeks ago, Bush was trailing behind Kerry in most
major polls. He now holds a slight lead in many. The country
is too politically divided for any major swing to occur, but
the change in the White Houseıs fortunes has nevertheless
produced measurable results.
Late last week I hosted American University professor Allan
Lichtman on my Abu Dhabi TV ³Viewpoint² program. Lichtman is
the analyst who has developed a scientific model for
predicting the outcome of presidential elections.
While Lichtman has been using his model to correctly call
the results of every race since 1984, he has based his
approach on an analysis of the past 35 presidential contests
going back to 1860. Instead of utilizing polling data,
Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the
society. He has identified 13 such indicators and calls them
his ³13 Keys².
According to Lichtman for the incumbent to win reelection,
he needs to hold at least eight of these ³13 Keys². The ³13
Keys² are:
1. The Incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of
Representatives after the mid-term election;
2. There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;
3. The incumbent-party is the current president;
4. There is no real third-party;
5. The economy is not in recession;
6. Per capita economic growth is improving;
7. The administration effected major policy changes;
8. There is no major social unrest;
9. The incumbent is untainted by major scandal;
10. There have been no major military or foreign
policy failures;
11. There was a major military or foreign policy success;
12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and
13. The challenger is not charismatic and not a
national hero.
According to Lichtmanıs assessment, Bush currently can claim
the eight keys necessary to win. (Bush has ³Keys² 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 8, 11 and 13.) The four ³Keys² Bush loses are 6, 7, 10
and 12. ³Key² nine is still unclear.
And wouldn't that be a huge tragedy for America and for the world? More people will be killed in the Middle East. More people will be orphaned or widowed or have their homes and livelihoods destroyed. More people with nothing left to lose will see becoming a suicide bomber as acceptable. The world will be less safe. Great result that.
Dissent is NOT unpatriotic... But, then again, neither
is stupidity
"patch70" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
news:0BPDc.650$yJ.560@fe24.usenetserver.com...
> And wouldn't that be a huge tragedy for America and for
> the world? More people will be killed in the Middle
> East. More people will be orphaned or widowed or have
> their homes and livelihoods destroyed. More people with
> nothing left to lose will see becoming a suicide bomber
> as acceptable. The world will be less safe. Great
> result that.
>
>
>
> --
Question to any one using Mozilla Thunderbird: How do you set up a killfile?
Thanks
This does not belong in the racing forum. Please take
political threads someplace else. I hate to see this forum
go the way of others and become a place for political
discussions. Good grief! The tour starts in a matter of
days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Steve wrote:
> http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=46483&d-
> =9&m=6&y=2004
>
>
> A few weeks ago, Bush was trailing behind Kerry in most
> major polls. He now holds a slight lead in many. The
> country is too politically divided for any major swing to
> occur, but the change in the White Houseıs fortunes has
> nevertheless produced measurable results.
>
> Late last week I hosted American University professor
> Allan Lichtman on my Abu Dhabi TV ³Viewpoint² program.
> Lichtman is the analyst who has developed a scientific
> model for predicting the outcome of presidential
> elections.
>
> While Lichtman has been using his model to correctly call
> the results of every race since 1984, he has based his
> approach on an analysis of the past 35 presidential
> contests going back to 1860. Instead of utilizing polling
> data, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and
> the society. He has identified 13 such indicators and
> calls them his ³13 Keys².
>
> According to Lichtman for the incumbent to win reelection,
> he needs to hold at least eight of these ³13 Keys². The
> ³13 Keys² are:
>
> 1. The Incumbent party holds more seats in the US House
> of Representatives after the mid-term election;
>
> 2. There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;
>
> 3. The incumbent-party is the current president;
>
> 4. There is no real third-party;
>
> 5. The economy is not in recession;
>
> 6. Per capita economic growth is improving;
>
> 7. The administration effected major policy changes;
>
> 8. There is no major social unrest;
>
> 9. The incumbent is untainted by major scandal;
>
> 10. There have been no major military or foreign policy
> failures;
>
> 11. There was a major military or foreign policy success;
>
> 12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and
>
> 13. The challenger is not charismatic and not a national
> hero.
>
> According to Lichtmanıs assessment, Bush currently can
> claim the eight keys necessary to win. (Bush has ³Keys² 1,
> 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11 and 13.) The four ³Keys² Bush loses are
> 6, 7, 10 and 12. ³Key² nine is still unclear.
Steve <sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net> wrote in message news:<BD050BBC.30642%sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net>...
> http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=46483&d-
> =9&m=6&y=2004
>
>
FACT #1
1. Steve is RBR's Saddle Sore, day in and day out.
FACT #2
2. Steve is an off-topic Asshole.
-Ken
"K. J. Papai" <ken@kenpapai.com> wrote in message
news:6100cab2.0406280709.69ea9af9@posting.google.com...
> Steve <sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:<BD050BBC.30642%sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net>...
> > http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=46483-
> > &d=9&m=6&y=2004
> >
> >
>
> FACT #1
>
> 1. Steve is RBR's Saddle Sore, day in and day out.
>
> FACT #2
>
> 2. Steve is an off-topic Asshole.
>
FACT #3
3. Bush won't even podium or even contend for a stage win.
Glenn D.
patch70 <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message news:<0BPDc.650$yJ.560@fe24.usenetserver.com>...
> And wouldn't that be a huge tragedy for America and for
> the world? More people will be killed in the Middle
> East. More people will be orphaned or widowed or have
> their homes and livelihoods destroyed. More people with
> nothing left...
"patch170" and Steve two of the Biggest RBR Saddle Sores and
Infected Boils of all time.
-Ken
"Glenn Dowdy" <glenn.no.dowdy@hpspam.com> wrote in message
news:y3%DC.4884$17.3991@news.cpqcorp.net...
>
> "K. J. Papai" <ken@kenpapai.com> wrote in message
> news:6100cab2.0406280709.69ea9af9@posting.google.com...
> > Steve <sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net> wrote in message
> news:<BD050BBC.30642%sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net>...
> > > http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=464-
> > > 83&d=9&m=6&y=2004
> > >
> > >
> >
> > FACT #1
> >
> > 1. Steve is RBR's Saddle Sore, day in and day out.
> >
> > FACT #2
> >
> > 2. Steve is an off-topic Asshole.
> >
> FACT #3
>
> 3. Bush won't even podium or even contend for a stage win.
>
> Glenn D.
>
4. He thinks we give a rats a$$ what he has to say.
On 6/28/04 1:16 PM, in article
6100cab2.0406281216.46b9a5a1@posting.google.com, "K. J. Papai"
<ken@kenpapai.com> wrote:
> patch70 <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
> news:<0BPDc.650$yJ.560@fe24.usenetserver.com>...
>> And wouldn't that be a huge tragedy for America and for
>> the world? More people will be killed in the Middle East.
>> More people will be orphaned or widowed or have their
>> homes and livelihoods destroyed. More people with nothing
>> left...
>
> "patch170" and Steve two of the Biggest RBR Saddle Sores
> and Infected Boils of all time.
>
> -Ken
society......
Religion SUXX when it is in America But it is DA BOMB and
acceptable when it is used to murder "infidels &
unbelievers" in another country....
"Steve" <sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net> wrote in message
news:BD05D349.30832%sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net...
> On 6/28/04 1:16 PM, in article
> 6100cab2.0406281216.46b9a5a1@posting.google.com, "K. J.
> Papai" <ken@kenpapai.com> wrote:
>
> > patch70 <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in
> > message news:<0BPDc.650$yJ.560@fe24.usenetserver.com>...
> >> And wouldn't that be a huge tragedy for America and for
> >> the world? More people will be killed in the Middle
> >> East. More people will be orphaned or widowed or have
> >> their homes and livelihoods destroyed. More people with
> >> nothing left...
> >
> > "patch170" and Steve two of the Biggest RBR Saddle Sores
> > and Infected Boils of all time.
> >
> > -Ken
>
> society......
Actually we were given an inkling with the Bush
Administration's arguments before the Supreme Court on the
Gitmo/US Citizen Enemy Combatant cases. And a conservative
Supreme Court slapped Bush and Asscroft down mighty hard
today. All except the conservative Three Stooges.
>
> Religion SUXX when it is in America But it is DA BOMB and
> acceptable when it is used to murder "infidels &
> unbelievers" in another country....
Since the mid-1990s, more than 20 black churches in the US
South burned to the ground via arson. SUXX, doesn't it?
Steve <sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net> wrote in message news:<BD05D349.30832%sdsteve@REMOVEsbcglobal.net>...
> On 6/28/04 1:16 PM, in article
> 6100cab2.0406281216.46b9a5a1@posting.google.com, "K. J.
> Papai" <ken@kenpapai.com> wrote:
>
> > patch70 <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in
> > message news:<0BPDc.650$yJ.560@fe24.usenetserver.com>...
> >> And wouldn't that be a huge tragedy for America and for
> >> the world? More people will be killed in the Middle
> >> East. More people will be orphaned or widowed or have
> >> their homes and livelihoods destroyed. More people with
> >> nothing left...
> >
> > "patch170" and Steve two of the Biggest RBR Saddle Sores
> > and Infected Boils of all time.
> >
> > -Ken
>
> society......
"patch70" and Stevie = two of the Biggest RBR Saddle Sores
and Infected Boils of all time.
-Ken
> Religion SUXX when it is in America But it is DA BOMB and
> acceptable when it is used to murder "infidels &
> unbelievers" in another country....
vBulletin, Copyright ©2000-2009, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Search Engine Friendly URLs by
vBSEO 3.3.0
