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tomorrow-alpe d'huez

Daveg

Gulp!

And Cols du Galibier AND Telegraph IIRC.

Is this it? Will Lance ....launch? Bloody hope so-some fireworks are in order.

--
ATB-DaveG

Nick Burns

"DaveG" <Dave.G@YahBoo.com> wrote in message news:bepsr2$rf$1@newsg4.svr.pol.co.uk...
> Gulp!
>
> And Cols du Galibier AND Telegraph IIRC.
>
> Is this it? Will Lance ....launch?

IIRC LA stated that this was a stage he wanted to win.

> Bloody hope so-some fireworks are in order.
>
> --
> ATB-DaveG

Ewoud Dronkert

On Sat, 12 Jul 2003 21:59:11 +0100, DaveG wrote:
> And Cols du Galibier AND Telegraph IIRC. Is this it? Will Lance ....launch?

Galibier is a hell of a climb, but it's all downhill from there to the foot of the Alp, 48
kilometers. That will discourage the GC men from doing a big launch on the Galibier. See
http://www.phys.uu.nl/~dronkert/cycling/cols/

Daveg

"Nick Burns" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:ko%Pa.402$G97.228@news.randori.com...
>
> "DaveG" <Dave.G@YahBoo.com> wrote in message news:bepsr2$rf$1@newsg4.svr.pol.co.uk...
> > Gulp!
> >
> > And Cols du Galibier AND Telegraph IIRC.
> >
> > Is this it? Will Lance ....launch?
>
> IIRC LA stated that this was a stage he wanted to win.

So he should be 'going or it' then? hehe-all my football(soccer) fan mates are going crazy during
the long summer break-I've tried to educate them! This is great,I can't wait for tomorrow's stage.
Cheers Nick.

ATB-Dave.

Nick Burns

"Ewoud Dronkert" <me@privacy.net> wrote in message
news:5711hvkrdmv05c4eiend4nrekb7pcv0j2v@news.cis.dfn.de...
> On Sat, 12 Jul 2003 21:59:11 +0100, DaveG wrote:
> > And Cols du Galibier AND Telegraph IIRC. Is this it? Will Lance ....launch?
>
> Galibier is a hell of a climb, but it's all downhill from there to the foot of the Alp, 48
> kilometers. That will discourage the GC men from doing a big launch on the Galibier. See
> http://www.phys.uu.nl/~dronkert/cycling/cols/

The problem for Lance is that just about everyone knows his tactics at this point. Tomorrow will be
wild. How much does anyone want to bet that Virenque goes on another suicide attack tomorrow
starting on the Galibier? If someone is off the front at the bottom of the last climb, then that is
where Lance will attack the group he is in. If Lance is in the front group, he attacks about halfway
up. There is just no doubt it will be a wild stage tomorrow. I may as well go out on a limb and
predict that Virenque keep the MJ until the first ITT.

Bruce

Tomorrow - Lance wants to keep it together until the last climb (l'Alpe), and keep at least two of
his climbers with him to get water on the last descent. Then he'll try to win by attacking with 5-8
km to the top. So the others need to figure how to avoid that. LA thinks he can win best by
attacking very late in the stage, so they need to force him to work hard earlier. Their trouble is
they also need to be able to work that hard for that long! Jan will wait for the last climb unless
some others attack on Galibier, as that descent is too long for any single rider to have any energy
left for l'Alpe. Perhaps some will try to get Lance's helpers too tired on Galibier, so Lance is
alone to chase on the descent. That's what we need Garzelli for but he's unlikely to be there even
if he recovers from his disaster today.

As for Virenque - he'll get dropped on Galibier and lose 10-20 minutes by the finish, but he'll keep
the polka dot jersey.

-Bruce

"Nick Burns" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:pU0Qa.661$G97.473@news.randori.com...
> "Ewoud Dronkert" <me@privacy.net> wrote in message
> news:5711hvkrdmv05c4eiend4nrekb7pcv0j2v@news.cis.dfn.de...
> > On Sat, 12 Jul 2003 21:59:11 +0100, DaveG wrote:
> > > And Cols du Galibier AND Telegraph IIRC. Is this it? Will Lance ....launch?
> >
> > Galibier is a hell of a climb, but it's all downhill from there to the foot of the Alp, 48
> > kilometers. That will discourage the GC men from doing a big launch on the Galibier. See
> > http://www.phys.uu.nl/~dronkert/cycling/cols/
>
>
> The problem for Lance is that just about everyone knows his tactics at
this
> point. Tomorrow will be wild. How much does anyone want to bet that
Virenque
> goes on another suicide attack tomorrow starting on the Galibier? If
someone
> is off the front at the bottom of the last climb, then that is where Lance will attack the group
> he is in. If Lance is in the front group, he attacks about halfway up. There is just no doubt it
> will be a wild stage tomorrow.
I
> may as well go out on a limb and predict that Virenque keep the MJ until
the
> first ITT.

Raptor

DaveG wrote:
> Gulp!
>
> And Cols du Galibier AND Telegraph IIRC.
>
> Is this it? Will Lance ....launch? Bloody hope so-some fireworks are in order.
>

This sounds like the same route raced in 2001. Or is it a different route over the same summits?

--
--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we
could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security." --Microsoft VP in
charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.

Michael Thomas

On Sat, 12 Jul 2003 23:32:37 GMT, "Nick Burns" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote:

>I may as well go out on a limb and predict that Virenque keep the MJ until the first ITT.

**** gave it everything to win today stage, the first mountain stage set up by the race comittee so
a Frenchman could be in yellow (he won the same stage a few years ago...), and knows he will lose
big time tomorrow. He's not a GC contender and will now concentrate on his more familiar role,
taking the polka dot to Paris.

He's toast tomorrow. My guess is he loses 11 minutes.

--

MT

Stewart Fleming

Nick Burns wrote:

> The problem for Lance is that just about everyone knows his tactics at this point. Tomorrow will
> be wild. How much does anyone want to bet that Virenque goes on another suicide attack tomorrow
> starting on the Galibier? If someone is off the front at the bottom of the last climb, then that
> is where Lance will attack the group he is in. If Lance is in the front group, he attacks about
> halfway up. There is just no doubt it will be a wild stage tomorrow. I may as well go out on a
> limb and predict that Virenque keep the MJ until the first ITT.

Why would Virenque attack? He just needs to follow Lance. Lance doesn't need to attack at the foot
of Alpe d'Huez now either, he just needs to follow whoever else does. Virenque has 2'37 which he
KNOWs he cannot hold past the ITT. He WANTS KoM, so a deal will be done; USPS and Davitamon
control the peloton. I doubt if there will be a long escape in stage 8 (tonight here in NZ, and
the stage is LIVE!)

Ewoud Dronkert

On Sat, 12 Jul 2003 19:55:36 -0400, Bruce wrote:
>so Lance is alone to chase on the descent. That's what we need Garzelli for but he's unlikely to be
>there even if he recovers from his disaster today.

Disaster? He had some difficulty earlier, but finished in front of the Armstrong group.

Ewoud Dronkert

On Sat, 12 Jul 2003 22:48:03 -0600, Raptor wrote:
> This sounds like the same route raced in 2001. Or is it a different route over the same summits?

It's different, and not over the same passes.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/2001/tour01/stages/stage_10.shtml
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2003/tour03/?id=stages/stage8 The 2001 stage was a lot harder. BTA,
it's the riders that make the race hard, not the parcours.

This year's route from St. Jean-de-Maurienne:
http://www.phys.uu.nl/~dronkert/cycling/bourg-stjean-lautaret.jpg (570 KB)

Dave

"Stewart Fleming" <drmofe@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:3F11073C.10207@yahoo.com..

<snip>

He WANTS KoM, so a deal will be done; USPS
> and Davitamon control the peloton. I doubt if there will be a long escape in stage 8 (tonight here
> in NZ, and the stage is LIVE!)

No way there will be any co-operation between Quick-Step and USPS can you say "the Tom
Boonen affair"

Dave

Stewart Fleming

Dave wrote:

> No way there will be any co-operation between Quick-Step and USPS can you say "the Tom
> Boonen affair"

Hmmm. QuickStep ride tempo all the way up the valley, USPS tucked in behind, then tempo up the
Galibier. The break never got more than 3:30 and it was wiped out before the top of the Galibier.
Cooperation? Hmm, maybe...Virenque didn't have it yesterday though.

Some other observations: Gilberto Simoni - regardless of his dental visits, that performance in
refusing to get dropped on the Galibier was impressive.

George Hincapie rode tempo for what? 2/3rds of the Galibier? Wow.

Tyler Hamilton, whatever painkillers he is on, can I have some please? This Tour would be a totally
different story if that collarbone wasn't cracked. Attacking Lance up the Alpe with that injury was
remarkable.

Axel Merckx was WRECKED coming over the top of the Galibier.

What was that Austrian rider thinking about when he attacked on the Telegraphe to get up to a
breakaway that had blown apart???

USPS don't have such good control over the peloton as I think they will need.

The cat is out of the bag now - Armstrong is vulnerable. While the surge on the Alpe after the hard
riding on the Galibier was a good tactic to get Ullrich out of the picture, it hurt USPS more. Heras
was in real trouble and Armstrong was isolated with Euskatel and Beloki to contend with alone. Maybe
the crash upset the rhythum a bit though.

Likely scenario: A narrow victory for Lance in the ITT (I'm picking 1-2 mins max) and then it is all
on in the Pyrenees. A wide cooperation among teams to attack repeatedly rather than to let a small
group get away on a long breakaway will do a lot of damage.

Nick Burns

"Stewart Fleming" <drmofe@yahoo.com> wrote in message

<snip>
> Tyler Hamilton, whatever painkillers he is on, can I have some please?
<snip>

This is what Roche is talking about. When you assume, you make an ass out of everyone.