My opinion of Ullrich waiting for armstrong

[Boyd Speerschne]

This is just my opinion, but FWIW...this is what I beleive happened that day on the road to
Luz Ardiden:

Jan had to slow to a crawl just to avoid running into the Mayo/Armstrong/bikes dogpile in front of
him. He obviously didn't have time to downshift. So naturally, in order to keep from falling over,
he sped up a a bit. At this point, he could have stopped and waited. But, no one else was waiting
around. We must also remember that there were groups coming up behind them (Ullrich's group) who
they had worked hard to drop on the mountains beforehand. At this point, I think he had a moment of
temptation where he was torn between attacking and doing the right thing (waiting). He probably
thought something like "Now's my chance!!! But ****! I can't take it because no one will respect
it." It obviously took him a while to make his choice. But he did make the right one!!! So at this
point he turns off the gas and starts looking back for Armstrong. He swings to the right (outside)
part of the road and Basso

choir boy Hamilton on the inside and motions to Basso and Ullrich for them to slow down. Jan had
obviously all ready turned the gas off (if he hadn't, Tyler would still have been at the back,
sucking wheel), so he kind of glares at Hamilton with a "WTF do you think I'm doing?" look.

Then Lance catches back on and he rest is history.

- Boyd S.

[Warren]

In article <Xns93CA8F8C07376bspeerscNOSPAM@65.32.1.7>, Boyd Speerschneider
<bspeerscNOSPAM@yahoo.com> wrote:

> This is just my opinion, but FWIW...this is what I beleive happened that day on the road to Luz
> Ardiden:
>
> Jan had to slow to a crawl just to avoid running into the Mayo/Armstrong/bikes dogpile in front of
> him. He obviously didn't have time to downshift. So naturally, in order to keep from falling over,
> he sped up a a bit. At this point, he could have stopped and waited. But, no one else was waiting
> around. We must also remember that there were groups coming up behind them (Ullrich's group) who
> they had worked hard to drop on the mountains beforehand. At this point, I think he had a moment
> of temptation where he was torn between attacking and doing the right thing (waiting). He probably
> thought something like "Now's my chance!!! But ****! I can't take it because no one will respect
> it." It obviously took him a while to make his choice. But he did make the right one!!! So at this
> point he turns off the gas and starts looking back for Armstrong. He swings to the right (outside)
> part of the road

Much longer and slower path...

> and Basso

> choir boy Hamilton on the inside and motions to Basso and Ullrich for them to slow down. Jan had
> obviously all ready turned the gas off (if he hadn't, Tyler would still have been at the back,
> sucking wheel), so he kind of glares at Hamilton with a "WTF do you think I'm doing?" look.
>
> Then Lance catches back on and he rest is history.

I agree. I watched it again last night and when Lance fell off he lost 20-40 seconds before he got
pushed off and in a very short time he was just about to catch the back of the group led by Ullrich
(shot from the rear showing this), when he slipped off his pedal. The point is, if Jan et all hadn't
slowed Lance would not have gotten so close so soon before he slipped off his pedal. All of this
happened before Tyler spoke up. Let's not forget that Mayo(?) attacked the same moment Lance caught
back on, thereby not allowing him any recovery time.

-WG

[Mike Jacoubowsk]

> So at this point he turns off the gas and starts looking back for Armstrong. He swings to the
> right (outside) part of the road and Basso

I got the feeling that Ullrich was confused more than anything. He kept looking back, trying to
figure out what had gone on, and you just couldn't help but think that the gears inside his brain
were turning at about the same cadence as his pedaling.

Don't take this the right way, but I'm not so sure Ullrich is the sharpest tool in the shed. Or
perhaps he just doesn't have that intuitive sense of how to handle the unexpected. Lance benefits
greatly from extreme confidence; I think that's what got him through that field. Others would
have probably gotten themselves into trouble because they'd be looking for a quick return to the
road, while Lance figures "OK, I'm moving forward, interesting situation, let's see where it
goes." A master of the concept that, when all you have are lemons, you make the best lemonade you
possibly can.

Another thing people are making a big hoopla over is the fact that Ullrich didn't hear about the
other three riders on his team that crashed in the same corner... but isn't it possible that this
information was intentionally kept from him because he was already so rattled over the conditions,
and they didn't want to make him even more nervous? In retrospect, it seems really dumb, but it
could be one of those things that, at the time, someone who knew Ullrich well may have thought it
best not to tell him. Pure conjecture, of course.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles http://www.ChainReactionBicycles.com (http://www.chainreactionbicycles.com/)

"Boyd Speerschneider" <bspeerscNOSPAM@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:Xns93CA8F8C07376bspeerscNOSPAM@65.32.1.7...
> This is just my opinion, but FWIW...this is what I beleive happened that day on the road to Luz
> Ardiden:
>
> Jan had to slow to a crawl just to avoid running into the Mayo/Armstrong/bikes dogpile in front of
> him. He obviously didn't have time to downshift. So naturally, in order to keep from falling over,
> he sped up a a bit. At this point, he could have stopped and waited. But,
no
> one else was waiting around. We must also remember that there were groups coming up behind them
> (Ullrich's group) who they had worked hard to drop
on
> the mountains beforehand. At this point, I think he had a moment of temptation where he was torn
> between attacking and doing the right thing (waiting). He probably thought something like "Now's
> my chance!!! But ****! I can't take it because no one will respect it." It obviously took him a
> while to make his choice. But he did make the right one!!! So at this point he turns off the gas
> and starts looking back for Armstrong. He swings to the right (outside) part of the road and Basso

comes
> choir boy Hamilton on the inside and motions to Basso and Ullrich for them to slow down. Jan had
> obviously all ready turned the gas off (if he hadn't, Tyler would still have been at the back,
> sucking wheel), so he
kind
> of glares at Hamilton with a "WTF do you think I'm doing?" look.
>
> Then Lance catches back on and he rest is history.
>
> - Boyd S.
>
>

[Raptor]

Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
>>So at this point he turns off the gas and starts looking back for Armstrong. He swings to the
>>right (outside) part of the road and Basso

>
>
> I got the feeling that Ullrich was confused more than anything. He kept looking back, trying to
> figure out what had gone on, and you just couldn't help but think that the gears inside his brain
> were turning at about the same cadence as his pedaling.
>
> Don't take this the right way, but I'm not so sure Ullrich is the sharpest tool in the shed. Or
> perhaps he just doesn't have that intuitive sense of how to handle the unexpected. Lance benefits
> greatly from extreme confidence; I think that's what got him through that field. Others would
> have probably gotten themselves into trouble because they'd be looking for a quick return to the
> road, while Lance figures "OK, I'm moving forward, interesting situation, let's see where it
> goes." A master of the concept that, when all you have are lemons, you make the best lemonade you
> possibly can.

Though my motto (one of them) is, "Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity or
ignorance," I'm not ready to agree that Ullrich is dumb. There was quite enough confusion in the
situation without going, "Duh, what wuz dat?" Any rider in Ullrich's situation would have been
confused about what to do. And his looks of alleged confusion are very similar to just looking back
and wondering when/if LANCE would catch up. Swap positions with LANCE and Jan, and I think you'd see
LANCE behaving much the same way.

But I like your take on LANCE's intuition and balls. Got me chuckling over the image of LANCE
crossing the field, again.

> Another thing people are making a big hoopla over is the fact that Ullrich didn't hear about the
> other three riders on his team that crashed in the same corner... but isn't it possible that this
> information was intentionally kept from him because he was already so rattled over the conditions,
> and they didn't want to make him even more nervous? In retrospect, it seems really dumb, but it
> could be one of those things that, at the time, someone who knew Ullrich well may have thought it
> best not to tell him. Pure conjecture, of course.

Most likely to me is, Ullrich heard about the ice and tried to ride fast anyway. Actually, I think
he said that he took that particular corner carefully but it just didn't matter.

--
--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we
could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security." --Microsoft VP in
charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.

[Ignatz Q. Mouse]

wtf wrote:
> In article <Xns93CA8F8C07376bspeerscNOSPAM@65.32.1.7>,
> Boyd Speerschneider <bspeerscNOSPAM@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
>>This is just my opinion, but FWIW...this is what I beleive happened that day on the road to Luz
>>Ardiden:
>>
>>Jan had to slow to a crawl just to avoid running into the Mayo/Armstrong/bikes dogpile in front of
>>him. He obviously didn't have time to downshift. So naturally, in order to keep from falling over,
>>he sped up a a bit. At this point, he could have stopped and waited. But, no one else was waiting
>>around. We must also remember that there were groups coming up behind them (Ullrich's group) who
>>they had worked hard to drop on the mountains beforehand. At this point, I think he had a moment
>>of temptation where he was torn between attacking and doing the right thing (waiting). He probably
>>thought something like "Now's my chance!!! But ****! I can't take it because no one will respect
>>it." It obviously took him a while to make his choice. But he did make the right one!!! So at this
>>point he turns off the gas and starts looking back for Armstrong. He swings to the right (outside)
>>part of the road and Basso

>>choir boy Hamilton on the inside and motions to Basso and Ullrich for them to slow down. Jan had
>>obviously all ready turned the gas off (if he hadn't, Tyler would still have been at the back,
>>sucking wheel), so he kind of glares at Hamilton with a "WTF do you think I'm doing?" look.
>>
>>Then Lance catches back on and he rest is history.
>>
>>- Boyd S.
>
>
> Ulrich didn't wait, he mostly got caught.
>
> The numbers after the fall: Fall :00 Ulrich powering away :08 Mayo Up :12 Armstrong up :22
> Armstrong and Rubiero flying back :30-:40 Armstrong catches Mayo 1:01 Foot comes off 1:03 Full
> power 1:11 Mayo passes Tyler Hamilton 1:50 Armstrong seen in back of group 1:52
> 2:30 Armstrong catches Ulrich
>
> Armstrong lost perhaps 26 seconds with the fall and pedal exit. It took 150 seconds for him to get
> that 26 seconds back.
>
> TIME TO DISTANCE SAMPLE #1 Ulrich 150 seconds Armstrong 124 seconds
> 124/150 = .83
>
> Numbers after the attack
> :00 Mayo attacks, Armstrong follows
> 1:44 Armstrong passes landmark
> 2:00 Ulrich passes landmark
>
> TIME TO DISTANCE SAMPLE #2 Ulrich 120 seconds Armstrong 104 seconds
> 104/120 = .87
>
> 150 - 124/.87 = 7 seconds.
>
> Conclusion Ulrich waited no more than 7 seconds for Armstrong, including the time he lost swerving
> around Armstrong and Mayo laying on the pavement.

Excellent work, Dr. Watson, however it doesn't take into account that Ullrich or anyone else could
have attacked, but they all pretty much contintued the tempo, high, but not attacking.

Then there's the grassy knoll theory, ah, but it's been done to death...