Gas prices and an increase in cycling?

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Hello,

There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
the future. Of course, one would think that this would lead to an
increase in cycling.

However, I think human beings (especially Americans) are too lazy for
bicycles, and we'll probably see an increase in horses for
transportation [according to this it's already happening:
http://www.wyff4.com/news/15968363/detail.html].

But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually seen an
increase in cyclists?

Have you guys too?

Regards,
Cullen
www.comatimes.blogspot.com

Cullen Carter wrote:

> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
> the future.

Are you sure it won't be in the past?

> Of course, one would think that this would lead to an increase in
> cycling.

I'd rather not. If they are riding because they are financially
pressed, they won't be friendly toward avocational riders, especially
ones that flaunt expensive "racing" equipment and dress up like their
professional idols.

> However, I think human beings (especially Americans) are too lazy
> for bicycles, and we'll probably see an increase in horses for
> transportation [according to this it's already happening:

http://www.wyff4.com/news/15968363/detail.html].

You don't need conjecture on that, the numbers are in and they point
to mass transit, the reasonable solution as seen by government. I
hope to see the anti-transit attitude vanish and the NIMBY's who
rather have more lanes on the nearby freeway than commute trains use
existing but idle rail lines. Just a few in the SF Bay Area:
Dumbarton bridge rail line, NWP rails in Marin and Napa county, rials
from Walnut creek to Pleasanton-Livermore, Hollister branch, Monterey
Branch and Santa Cruz branch, all formerly had passenger service.

One huge traffic jam over the Santa Cruz Mountains is HWY17 where an
existing rail line lies dormant.

> But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually seen
> an increase in cyclists?

I'm not enamored with these new riders and their attitude toward
people who "play" on their bicycles. Hey! I'm on a training ride.

> Have you guys too?

I haven't seen many adults (in contrast to youth and local students)
ride more. I suppose bicycle shop operators on this forum could give
a broader picture.
--
Jobst Brandt

On May 12, 8:05 pm, "ccar...@new.rr.com" <ccar...@new.rr.com> wrote:
> Hello,
>
> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
> the future. Of course, one would think that this would lead to an
> increase in cycling.
>
> However, I think human beings (especially Americans) are too lazy for
> bicycles, and we'll probably see an increase in horses for
> transportation [according to this it's already happening:http://www.wyff4.com/news/15968363/detail.html].
>
> But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually seen an
> increase in cyclists?
>
> Have you guys too?
>
> Regards,
> Cullenwww.comatimes.blogspot.com

1- I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more lazy
than the citizens of any other country.
2- Horses, besides not being too welcome on city streets unless they
are pulling a couple snuggling in a carriage or being ridden by a
police officer, require a heck of a lot more work than does riding a
bike. Ever mucked out a stable or unloaded a truckload of alfalfa? ;-)
3- I haven't noticed any increased bicycle usage.

Regards,
Bob Hunt

On May 12, 8:53 pm, Bob <hunr...@aol.com> wrote:
> 1- I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more lazy
> than the citizens of any other country.
> 2- Horses, besides not being too welcome on city streets unless they
> are pulling a couple snuggling in a carriage or being ridden by a
> police officer, require a heck of a lot more work than does riding a
> bike. Ever mucked out a stable or unloaded a truckload of alfalfa? ;-)
> 3- I haven't noticed any increased bicycle usage.

1: Drive through funeral homes - http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/courses/geog100/CarMort.htm
- aren't exactly evidence to the contrary.
2: Agreed
3: I have, but it's spring here. And my LBS's biggest rival burned
down recently (*) so I can't verify that the apparent increase in
traffic there means anything.

Not conclusive by any means.

* Dukes, at Queen and Bathurst in Toronto. They've since reopened in a
temporary location on Richmond west of Spadina, which is frankly a
horrid location to ride a bike to.

jobst.brandt@stanfordalumni.org wrote:

> One huge traffic jam over the Santa Cruz Mountains is HWY17 where an
> existing rail line lies dormant.

Not much of that line is still existing. I've mountain biked on part of
the old right of way, and most of the tracks are gone until you get down
to Roaring Camp. During WWII many of the tunnels were blown up during
WWII when it was feared the Japanese would land in Santa Cruz and use
the tunnels as bunkers..

Steven Scharf wrote:

>> One huge traffic jam over the Santa Cruz Mountains is HWY17 where
>> an existing rail line lies dormant.

> Not much of that line is still existing. I've mountain biked on
> part of the old right of way, and most of the tracks are gone until
> you get down to Roaring Camp. During WWII many of the tunnels were
> blown up during WWII when it was feared the Japanese would land in
> Santa Cruz and use the tunnels as bunkers..

The largest hurdle is Lexington reservoir through which the RR grade
leaves Los Gatos and goes from near the bottom of the dam to above
waterline in a matter of a mile. The tunnel entrances were blasted as
a corps of engineers exercise for the US Army, closing the tunnels
being required by government safety regulations. The tunnels are
still there and would require refurbishment anyway, being on and near
the San Andreas fault.

http://www.geocities.com/rayhosler/tunnel/tunnel.html

The RR ROW is still there as are the tunnels. It requires desire,
funds and initiative to get that line running. My largest worry is
that unless Santa Cruz County institutes a zoning plan, the live in
the woods in shacks, plan will snowball if there is a transit corridor
there to make these properties desirable. This is an area of dirt
roads with more than a dozen mail boxes at the entrance. Most houses
are out of sight in the forest.

Jobst Brandt

On May 12, 9:53 pm, Bob <hunr...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>
> I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more lazy
> than the citizens of any other country.

Try spending a few weeks east of the Atlantic, then returning to the
US.

I've done that a few times. Each time, the body fat walking around in
the US airport shocks me. The difference is very noticeable.

- Frank Krygowski

ccarter@new.rr.com wrote:

> But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually seen an
> increase in cyclists?
>
> Have you guys too?

Definitely!

Started last spring when we had the $3/gal gas spike.

Saw more during this winter as well, which *really* surprised
me.

And even more bicyclist in "normal clothes" and older or hybrid
bikes with various sorts of rake/pannier/baskets on them. Seem
to be commuters to me.

And they even say "hi" or nod at you which the ones in "Lance
Armstrong outfits" riding double ring racing bikes won't do.


SMH

Frank Krygowski wrote:
> On May 12, 9:53 pm, Bob <hunr...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more lazy
>>than the citizens of any other country.
>
>
> Try spending a few weeks east of the Atlantic, then returning to the
> US.
>
> I've done that a few times. Each time, the body fat walking around in
> the US airport shocks me. The difference is very noticeable.

I don't think "being fat" necessarily translates into being
lazy.


SMH

In article
<6e91e5cf-ec02-44e9-8c90-194e8bb84920@l64g2000hse.googlegroups.com>,
Frank Krygowski <frkrygow@gmail.com> wrote:

> On May 12, 9:53 pm, Bob <hunr...@aol.com> wrote:
> >
> >
> > I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more lazy
> > than the citizens of any other country.
>
> Try spending a few weeks east of the Atlantic, then returning to the
> US.
>
> I've done that a few times. Each time, the body fat walking around in
> the US airport shocks me. The difference is very noticeable.
>
> - Frank Krygowski

Come visit me at Fermilab. You cannot always tell who is a foriegner,
but you can always tell who is _not_.

--
This signature can be appended to your outgoing mesages. Many people include in
their signatures contact information, and perhaps a joke or quotation.

On May 12, 6:05 pm, "ccar...@new.rr.com" <ccar...@new.rr.com> wrote:
> Hello,
>
> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
> the future. Of course, one would think that this would lead to an
> increase in cycling.
>
> However, I think human beings (especially Americans) are too lazy for
> bicycles, and we'll probably see an increase in horses for
> transportation [according to this it's already happening:http://www.wyff4.com/news/15968363/detail.html].
>
> But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually seen an
> increase in cyclists?
>
> Have you guys too?
>
> Regards,
> Cullenwww.comatimes.blogspot.com

Nope. I've not seen more bike in street yet.
Oh i'm not sure we are gonna see more bike in street due to the high
gas price. people can't ride a bike here. They are addicted to big
car.

In article <de0cfa46-b9ed-4b06-ad08-761903c2b416@t54g2000hsg.googlegroups.com>,
"ccarter@new.rr.com" <ccarter@new.rr.com> writes:
> Hello,
>
> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
> the future. Of course, one would think that this would lead to an
> increase in cycling.

I think it's a reasonable conjecture that more people (not
everybody) will supplement their tranportation options with
bicycles -- use the bicycle for short, infra-urban trips where
use of a motor vehicle would really be overkill, and reserve
their motor vehicles for the longer/heavier haul, and get more
for their gas money. People will become more selective in
their transportation options. I don't foresee any sudden
car->bike paradigm shift, as cycling adovates are accused of
conspiring towards, by so many car addicts.

> However, I think human beings (especially Americans) are too lazy for
> bicycles,

I think a lot of non-cycling North Americans are simply
blithely ... ~uninformed~ about the viability of cycling.
Perhaps many have an irrational lack of confidence in their
incipient cycling abilities. Perhaps many have tried it --
once -- and decided it's too much hard work for what one
gets from it. For a tyro rider or an adult who hasn't ridden
since they were 12, it /is/ hard work at first. New ridership
needs mucn empathy & support. And of course, some folks are
just irredeemably prejudiced against bikes.

> and we'll probably see an increase in horses for
> transportation [according to this it's already happening:
> http://www.wyff4.com/news/15968363/detail.html].

I know worldwide, bicycles outnumber motor vehicles by
quite a large margin. From that I extrapolate they must
also outnumber harness/halter-broken horses. Maybe world-wide,
bicycles are the #1 transportation choice? OTOH I hear on the
news media about how automobile use is on the increase in
developing nations.

> But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually seen an
> increase in cyclists?
>
> Have you guys too?

It's hard to tell; we have so many riders here. I'm
happily one of 'em.


cheers,
Tom

--
Nothing is safe from me.
I'm really at:
tkeats curlicue vcn dot bc dot ca

On Mon, 12 May 2008 18:53:12 -0700, Bob wrote:

> On May 12, 8:05 pm, "ccar...@new.rr.com" <ccar...@new.rr.com> wrote:
>> Hello,
>>
>> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
>> the future. Of course, one would think that this would lead to an
>> increase in cycling.
>>
>> However, I think human beings (especially Americans) are too lazy for
>> bicycles, and we'll probably see an increase in horses for
>> transportation [according to this it's already
>> happening:http://www.wyff4.com/news/15968363/detail.html].
>>
>> But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually seen an
>> increase in cyclists?

>> Have you guys too?

> 1- I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more lazy
> than the citizens of any other country.

If anything it's the opposite, with cultural pressure to always appear to
be productive, not "wasting time" on a bicycle. In the US, bicycles are
seen as toys for children and immature adults.

I think this is why there's so much emphasis on racing in bike
marketing in the US. Americans feel they have to justify their interest
in cycling by pretending it's a serious athletic pursuit.

2- Horses, besides not being too
> welcome on city streets unless they are pulling a couple snuggling in a
> carriage or being ridden by a police officer, require a heck of a lot
> more work than does riding a bike. Ever mucked out a stable or unloaded
> a truckload of alfalfa? ;-)

This is true.

We'll never go "back to horses" because we never came from horses to begin
with. This idea comes from our own car culture projected backwards. No
one ever saddled up to fetch a quart of milk! Most people walked. Draft
animals for pulling heavy loads were as likely to be mules or oxen as
horses. When bikes came around in the late 1800s they were immediately
popular among those who could afford them (about $4000, adjusted for
inflation) -- not just for their novelty, but their transportation value,
practicality, and economy.

3- I haven't noticed any increased bicycle usage.

I have, but it's a trend that started before the latest runup in fuel
prices.

BTW, in the UK they've been paying $8/gallon for years. If anything, it's
the congestion pricing in central London that has put more people on
bikes.

Matt O.

Jobst,

As the chief trainspotter here, what have you heard lately about the CA
high speed rail line from LA to SFO through Bakersfield and Fresno?
Sounds like a good deal to me, especially if they allow bikes aboard. :-)

Matt O.

On Mon, 12 May 2008 18:05:50 -0700, ccarter@new.rr.com wrote:

> Hello,
>
> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in the
> future. Of course, one would think that this would lead to an increase in
> cycling.

Some think it has already:

http://www.modbee.com/local/story/297918.html

Matt O.

Matt O'Toole wrote:

>>> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon
>>> in the future. Of course, one would think that this would lead to
>>> an increase in cycling.

>>> However, I think human beings (especially Americans) are too lazy
>>> for bicycles, and we'll probably see an increase in horses for
>>> transportation [according to this it's already

happening:http://www.wyff4.com/news/15968363/detail.html].

>>> But, I have to admit that - yes, I'm surprised - I've actually
>>> seen an increase in cyclists?

>>> Have you guys too?

>> 1) I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more
>> lazy than the citizens of any other country.

> If anything it's the opposite, with cultural pressure to always appear to
> be productive, not "wasting time" on a bicycle. In the US, bicycles are
> seen as toys for children and immature adults.

> I think this is why there's so much emphasis on racing in bike
> marketing in the US. Americans feel they have to justify their
> interest in cycling by pretending it's a serious athletic pursuit.

>> 2) Horses, besides not being too welcome on city streets unless
>> they are pulling a couple snuggling in a carriage or being ridden
>> by a police officer, require a heck of a lot more work than does
>> riding a bike. Ever mucked out a stable or unloaded a truckload of
>> alfalfa?

> This is true.

> We'll never go "back to horses" because we never came from horses to
> begin with. This idea comes from our own car culture projected
> backwards. No one ever saddled up to fetch a quart of milk! Most
> people walked. Draft animals for pulling heavy loads were as likely
> to be mules or oxen as horses. When bikes came around in the late
> 1800s they were immediately popular among those who could afford
> them (about $4000, adjusted for inflation) -- not just for their
> novelty, but their transportation value, practicality, and economy.

> 3) I haven't noticed any increased bicycle usage.

> I have, but it's a trend that started before the latest runup in
> fuel prices.

> BTW, in the UK they've been paying $8/gallon for years. If
> anything, it's the congestion pricing in central London that has put
> more people on bikes.

As I see it, the US appreciation of bicycles agrees with yours and may
go even farther:

http://draco.acs.uci.edu/rbfaq/FAQ/6.1.html

Jobst Brandt

Matt O'Toole wrote:

> As the chief trainspotter here, what have you heard lately about the
> CA high speed rail line from LA to SFO through Bakersfield and
> Fresno? Sounds like a good deal to me, especially if they allow
> bikes aboard.

Quentin Kopp is haeding up the task force and he is making good
progress. The big noise (smoke but no fire) is wheterh the cut-over
from the Californina Central Valley to the SF Bay Area crosses at Los
Baños or the existing rail corridor over Altamont pass. Other than
that, funding is available and has been voted for.

Jobst Brandt

<jobst.brandt@stanfordalumni.org> wrote in message
news:4828f2d4$0$34526$742ec2ed@news.sonic.net...
> Cullen Carter wrote:
>
>> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
>> the future.
>
> Are you sure it won't be in the past?

That might be truer than you intended.

Peak Oil theories aside I would not be surprised if we eventually repeat the
70's 80's 90's.... errrrr.... cycle again.

Grossy summarized, the price spikes of the 70's caused a huge gain in
efficiencies. Car kilometerage increased dramatically, insulation and energy
efficiency similarly improved. And yes previously uneconomic sources of oil
came online.

In fact it took pretty much two decades before that excess supply was
sopped up by the low price driven craze of massive SUV's and prolifigate
usage.

I suspect that within 5 years the 'cycle' will be repeating.


>> Of course, one would think that this would lead to an increase in
>> cycling.
>
> I'd rather not. If they are riding because they are financially
> pressed, they won't be friendly toward avocational riders, especially
> ones that flaunt expensive "racing" equipment and dress up like their
> professional idols.

Most might fit that description. But amnongst the dross some might be
converted.

In article <4828f2d4$0$34526$742ec2ed@news.sonic.net>,
jobst.brandt@stanfordalumni.org writes:
> Cullen Carter wrote:
>
>> There's no doubt that we'll see astronomical gasoline prices soon in
>> the future.
>
> Are you sure it won't be in the past?
>
>> Of course, one would think that this would lead to an increase in
>> cycling.
>
> I'd rather not. If they are riding because they are financially
> pressed, they won't be friendly toward avocational riders, especially
> ones that flaunt expensive "racing" equipment and dress up like their
> professional idols.

I'd like to think that the more people get away from
their POVs, the more sociable and amicable they're
likely to become.

Maybe incidents of so-called "road rage" would wane.

Nobody can have a chip on their shoulder while
riding a bike. It would blow off.


cheers,
Tom

--
Nothing is safe from me.
I'm really at:
tkeats curlicue vcn dot bc dot ca

Matt O'Toole wrote:
> On Mon, 12 May 2008 18:53:12 -0700, Bob wrote:
>> 1- I don't think there's any evidence that Americans are any more lazy
>> than the citizens of any other country.
>
> If anything it's the opposite, with cultural pressure to always appear to
> be productive, not "wasting time" on a bicycle. In the US, bicycles are
> seen as toys for children and immature adults.

That's a mighty wide brush you're painting with. I've ridden
seriously in various parts of the U.S. as an adult for something like
35 years now. While this is anecdotal evidence, I don't think I've
ever encountered the label of immature adult or toy user in that time.
I have encountered aggressive behavior from some people, but those are
not the common reactions.
>
> I think this is why there's so much emphasis on racing in bike
> marketing in the US. Americans feel they have to justify their interest
> in cycling by pretending it's a serious athletic pursuit.

Maybe, or perhaps the bicycle makers push the high priced bicycles
because the profit margin is much greater there. I will make one
observation about cycling that I have noticed in the U.S. but not
in Europe, where I have lived a couple of times. In the U.S. bicycle
advocates often live bicycling and pretty much not much else, to the
degree that some of them are boring and more than a little annoying.
IME, in Europe, people just ride bikes for transportation or for
exercise/entertainment and don't tend to claim any moral superiority
because of it.

> 3- I haven't noticed any increased bicycle usage.
>
> I have, but it's a trend that started before the latest runup in fuel
> prices.

I am seeing more adults riding in neighborhoods and on running/bike
paths...not so much on the roads where I ride. There is a fear factor
involved here, I believe. High speed auto traffic and bicycles are a mix
that's daunting for many folks, and in suburban areas, which is where a
significant part of the local population resides, there are a lot of
neighborhoods connected by highspeed arteries. Out here in the burbs,
there are no safely accessible places to shop by bicycle either.
>
> BTW, in the UK they've been paying $8/gallon for years. If anything, it's
> the congestion pricing in central London that has put more people on
> bikes.

Actually, in the UK, gasoline is priced in English pounds.
Converting the prices to dollars right now simply indicates how
far the dollar has fallen against other currencies. FWIW, petrol
prices in the U.K. have been high for years due to high rates of
taxation. The same is generally true in the rest of Europe. One
more point. Places like London, Paris, Rome etc. have mass transit
that is effective for two reasons. First, the cities were built way
before the advent of automobiles so retrofitting an automobile culture
is difficult and second, they have population densities that make mass
transit more cost-effective. An alternative to vast daily migration to
places of work from homes would be to distribute work closer to peoples'
homes, or to implement more telecommuting options.
>
> Matt O.


--
They wrote in the old days that it is sweet and fitting to die for
one's country. But in modern war, there is nothing sweet nor fitting in
your dying. You will die like a dog for no good reason.
-- Ernest Hemingway