2008 Tour de France : Stage 4 Cholet 29 km Individual time trial Tuesday, July 8

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Stage 4 : Individual Time Trial.

Stage 4 : Individual Time Trial
only question is, how many seconds can Cancellara put into second place.

I reckon he can win by a minute. Which is huge. Remember most time splits occur disproportionately from 40-50kms in the long tts.

I want to say Millar even though he probably doesn't stand a chance now he's not using dope. Cancellara does seem a more likely winner though.

According to the weather forecast I've seen, there might be some rain and wind, and so probably quite changing conditions.

So the start order might be decicive. The best ITT-ers will probably be scattered all over the GC by the 4.th stage, due to no prologue, time splits on the 1st stage and maybe also some tactical "slow" riding on stage 3 by some non-GC ITTer who will gamble on an early start.

I think there will be more surprises in the top 10 than usual, and maybe someone can beat Cancellara - which on paper is impossible on a 29 km flat ITT on the 4th stage.

According to the weather forecast I've seen, there might be some rain and wind, and so probably quite changing conditions.

So the start order might be decicive. The best ITT-ers will probably be scattered all over the GC by the 4.th stage, due to no prologue, time splits on the 1st stage and maybe also some tactical "slow" riding on stage 3 by some non-GC ITTer who will gamble on an early start.

I think there will be more surprises in the top 10 than usual, and maybe someone can beat Cancellara - which on paper is impossible on a 29 km flat ITT on the 4th stage.
unless it was an in form Wiggins or Mcgee, I could not see anyone beating him unless the conditions are +60 seconds influence from Cancellara's start.

respect to Zabriskie '05. I really don't think anyone bar Mcgee and Wiggins can get near him, and then only with 60 seconds up their sleeve. Under 20kms, perhaps Hushovd.

unless it was an in form Wiggins or Mcgee, I could not see anyone beating him unless the conditions are +60 seconds influence from Cancellara's start.

respect to Zabriskie '05. I really don't think anyone bar Mcgee and Wiggins can get near him, and then only with 60 seconds up their sleeve. Under 20kms, perhaps Hushovd.I'm more interested in what you experts think the placing and time gaps will be for the GC contenders on this chrono.

And apologies RAGT for forgetting you in my list of GT forum regulars.

I'm more interested in what you experts think the placing and time gaps will be for the GC contenders on this chrono.
Evans
Menchov +20 seconds
Popo +30 seconds
Valverde +80 seconds
Sastre +85 seconds
F Schleck +100 seconds
A Schleck +130 seconds

Evans
Menchov +20 seconds
Popo +30 seconds
Valverde +80 seconds
Sastre +85 seconds
F Schleck +100 seconds
A Schleck +130 secondsThanks thunder. Hazard a guess on Cunego?

Thanks thunder. Hazard a guess on Cunego?
if you can tell me, is his tattoo temporary or ink?

Evans
Menchov +20 seconds
Popo +30 seconds
Valverde +80 seconds
Sastre +85 seconds
F Schleck +100 seconds
A Schleck +130 seconds
I think Cunego +75

if you can tell me, is his tattoo temporary or ink?It has to be permanent. No washable crap. It allows him a convenient spot to stick the needles into without leaving marks... :D

if you can tell me, is his tattoo temporary or ink?temporary

Evans
Menchov +20 seconds
Popo +30 seconds
Valverde +80 seconds
Sastre +85 seconds
F Schleck +100 seconds
A Schleck +130 secondsSorry guys, but Andy Schleck will beat at least his brother. I saw him last Sunday ride alone for 50kms during the Luxembourg Champs. Thanks to him, Kirchen and Joachim had to organise a huge chase (together with Poos and Centrone), while Frank was resting in the back. Andy will be in HUGE shape.

Sorry guys, but Andy Schleck will beat at least his brother. I saw him last Sunday ride alone for 50kms during the Luxembourg Champs. Thanks to him, Kirchen and Joachim had to organise a huge chase (together with Poos and Centrone), while Frank was resting in the back. Andy will be in HUGE shape.Notwithstanding my limited experience, I prefer Frank's preparation strategy in that anecdote. What's he doing thrashing himself the weekend before a GT?

Sorry guys, but Andy Schleck will beat at least his brother. I saw him last Sunday ride alone for 50kms during the Luxembourg Champs. Thanks to him, Kirchen and Joachim had to organise a huge chase (together with Poos and Centrone), while Frank was resting in the back. Andy will be in HUGE shape.
nope he wont

nope he wontwhy not? Do u know something we don't?

Evans
Menchov +20 seconds
Popo +30 seconds
Valverde +80 seconds
Sastre +85 seconds
F Schleck +100 seconds
A Schleck +130 seconds

I think on the shorter Time Trial I think Valverde will be within 50 seconds, especially early in the race before the heavy fatigue sets in. Sastre I think will be around 120 seconds though. Until I see him prove that he has improved his TT ability, I am taking a I believe it till i see it approach

Assuming Cancellara wins then there may be a yellow jersey up for grabs on stage 6. Cancellara can climb but will he able to stay with the main group all the way up to Super Besse? Also, CSC may not want to chase all day given their GC hopes so a break may stay away. The yellow jersey wearer may then be the person who does best in the TT and makes it into the break. TTers who can climb a bit would be trying hard anyway but the time gap between riders such as Millar, Van De Velde and Chavanel may be significant come stage 6 IMO.

The weather for the stage looks a bit less windy then the last few days but still with a 10-15 mph west-south-westerly. As far as i can see any variations in the wind should be small. Looks like it may be dry through the race although it does look like there will be showers not far to the south so i wouldnt bank on it.

Anyone care to guess a top ten?


1. Cancellara
2. Cadel Evans
3. Sebastian Lang
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Denis Menchov
6. Popovych
7. J.I Guiterrez
8. Sylvain Chavanel
9. David Millar
10. Christian Vandevelde

Other possible top tens... or rounding out the top 25...

Leif Hoste, Kreuzinger, Adam Hansen, Lovkvist, Kirchen, Devolder, Pate, Stu O'grady, Jens Voight, Bruseghin, Shumacher, Posthuma, Rosseler, Astarloza, Zubeldia, Pereiro

Anyone care to guess a top ten?


1. Cancellara
2. Cadel Evans
3. Sebastian Lang
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Denis Menchov
6. Popovych
7. J.I Guiterrez
8. Sylvain Chavanel
9. David Millar
10. Christian Vandevelde

Other possible top tens... or rounding out the top 25...

Leif Hoste, Kreuzinger, Adam Hansen, Lovkvist, Kirchen, Devolder, Pate, Stu O'grady, Jens Voight, Bruseghin, Shumacher, Posthuma, Rosseler, Astarloza, Zubeldia, Pereiro
1. Cancellara
2. Valverde
3. Evans
4. Millar
5. Devolder
6. Schumacher
7. Kirchen
8. Menchov
9. Krueziger
10. Clement

Due to our alternating picking (in which I had 1st, he had 2nd and 3rd, I had 4th and 5th, he had 6th pick)... I've got Cancellara, Valverde, and Devolder in the sweep with thumper.

He has Evans, Millar, Vandevelde