2008 Tour de France : Stage 14 - Saturday, July 19: Nîmes - Digne les Bains, 194.5km

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Stage 14

If Cavendish makes it over the climb, then Cavendish shits this in.

If Cavendish doesn't make it over the climb, I think Ciolek will and he'll win.

If Cavendish makes it over the climb, then Cavendish shits this in.

If Cavendish doesn't make it over the climb, I think Ciolek will and he'll win.You really think that this is going to be a sprint finish??

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You really think that this is going to be a sprint finish??Columbia are greedy and want stage wins!

But I think it's time that FLECHA finally tries himself in a break. He either does it today or the day before the time trial. Last night could have been a sign he is hungry.

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That's worse than I thought it was.

That's worse than I thought it was.
maybe your boy hincapie will try something. although, I personally think he is toast.

maybe your boy hincapie will try something. although, I personally think he is toast.
I was thinking Columbia might send someone in a break but I was trying to think of who. Adam Hansen is the most likely one. He tried unsuccessfully at the Giro. Hincapie needs to conserve his energy for the alps.

Columbia are greedy and want stage wins!

But I think it's time that FLECHA finally tries himself in a break. He either does it today or the day before the time trial. Last night could have been a sign he is hungry. Look dude, once again, try to be a bit realistic. You can say that Columbia is greedy and want stage wins; so they will send someone in the break, or that it will end in a sprint and hence Cavendish will win and thereby have them winning all 19 stages of the Tour, or 14 stages if you take out the high mountains. :rolleyes:

I wish they'd say the multiplication factor they use for the vertical part of those maps. It's only 500 m or so elevation between the start and end point, and if they use the same scale as the horizontal axis, you wouldn't even see it.

Live tracker:
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All you really need to know is that it's up hill all day. This will suit a break away. With a decent climb near the finish, and a downhill run to the line I would be surprised if it ended in a bunch sprint.

A Columbian team member in a breakaway could just sit at the back and not do any work knowing Cavendish will be there if the peleton catches them. But it depends on whether Cavendish is feeling up to it today, or whether the team thinks he would even survive in the peleton, or whether they just want to rest him, or whether he calls it a day and heads for the Olympics. Who knows.

A good day for a break. The GC contenders and their teams won't want to work before Sunday's stage. That final 10K will be interesting.

The upslope is only 0.4% for the first 115km or so.... then 0.3% for most of the rise on the next 35km of upslope to Col de L'Orme. Then about 5% for the last 5km of the climb. Not really significant IMO.

I don't think it will lose the sprinters. It will be slightly uphill all day, which will be similar in some ways to slogging into a mild headwind. The upgrade won't be linear in any case.

The upslope is only 0.4% for the first 115km or so.... then 0.3% for most of the rise on the next 35km of upslope to Col de L'Orme. Then about 5% for the last 5km of the climb. Not really significant IMO.

I don't think it will lose the sprinters. It will be slightly uphill all day, which will be similar in some ways to slogging into a mild headwind. The upgrade won't be linear in any case.more of a case of how tired any of the sprinters are. Cavendish keeps saying that he's really tired ... (though that didn't seem to stop him today). On the other hand, McEwen had his best showing Friday though it's not as though that will affect Silence-Lotto's overall tactics for the stage, and Seb. Chavanel did well Thursday so FDJ might be more likely to pull at the front to bring back any breaks.

what teams have sprinters that will make it over that last climb? friere-rabobank, pozzato-liquigas, cofidis-duque??, hushovd is sposidly ill. i dont think there will be enough teams willing to work to pull the break back for this stage, rabobank wont work for a sprint.

I think quite a few riders will have been saving theirselves for this stage - the last two stages looked like bunch sprints but this one has more of a question mark there. The long climb wont have that much effect as the gradient is so small but the fourth category close to the finish will put a few sprinters off. This means that there will be fewer teams doing the chasing so a good breakaway stands a decent chance of staying away. So im going for a fairly large break with quite a few riders in there who are decent at the classics but not good enough in the mountains to be GC contenders. Could also be a rider in there looking to lift themself up GC such as Dessel.

The upslope is only 0.4% for the first 115km or so.... then 0.3% for most of the rise on the next 35km of upslope to Col de L'Orme. Then about 5% for the last 5km of the climb. Not really significant IMO.

I don't think it will lose the sprinters. It will be slightly uphill all day, which will be similar in some ways to slogging into a mild headwind. The upgrade won't be linear in any case.
To me that bit looks like it averages 1%? At 145km there are at 371 metres and 165km they are at 455. After that, that section then steepens a bit if anything making it 1%? A fairly constant gradient though so maybe that will help the organisation of a chase.

Actually, if it is a large group that breaks away then maybe Freire, Hushovd and Zabel will try to get themselves in there to get some points both along the way and at the end?

I'm not sure Cavendish will start as I think it is time for him to think about the Olympics.
Regardless today is a day for a breakaway victory (I think starting ~ 110km in)

Hm, not sure about some of my arithmetic above. Anyway, there was a group of about 20 in front but now there are four with a lead of 3.35. In the group there is Sandy Casar at only 13 minutes down on overall. Wonder if they'll stay away? I would have thought that quite a lot of teams will fancy the chances of someone breaking away on the last climb so the teams at the front may not necessarily be the obvious sprinters' ones

Hm, not sure about some of my arithmetic above. Anyway, there was a group of about 20 in front but now there are four with a lead of 3.35. In the group there is Sandy Casar at only 13 minutes down on overall. Wonder if they'll stay away? I would have thought that quite a lot of teams will fancy the chances of someone breaking away on the last climb so the teams at the front may not necessarily be the obvious sprinters' onesIndeed Casar may be able to break into top 15. I'm not sure how conducive this course is for the peloton to regain time. Only 1 more hour until ITV4 coverage starts!