Met office wrong

Wafflydirtycatl

and I love it.

The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts.

Woke this morning to glorious sun.

Went out and did 35 miles round the lanes.

GLORIOUS GLORIOUS GLORIOUS

Sunny - windy - but not a cold wind - it was invigorating

I just love it when the Met Office get it wrong :-)

Cheers, helen s

~~~~~~~~~~
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Zog The Undenia

Congokid

In article <blf4mc$f8b$6@news8.svr.pol.co.uk>, Zog The Undeniable <ffff@gggg.net> writes
>wafflyDIRTYcatLITTERhcsBOX wrote:
>> and I love it. The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these
>> here parts. Woke this morning to glorious sun.
>
>Went to work by car [1]and didn't need to :-(

It was lovely here this morning and this afternoon. I even went out in shirtsleeves to interview a
client. But I got very wet on the way home early this evening.

--
congokid Eating out in London? Read my tips... http://congokid.com (http://congokid.com/)

Stan Cox

wafflyDIRTYcatLITTERhcsBOX wrote:
> and I love it.
>
> The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts.
>
> Woke this morning to glorious sun.
>
> Went out and did 35 miles round the lanes.
>
> GLORIOUS GLORIOUS GLORIOUS
>
> Sunny - windy - but not a cold wind - it was invigorating
>
> I just love it when the Met Office get it wrong :-)
>
> Cheers, helen s
>
>
>

Yup Forecast for here was rain in morning clearing in the afternoon. Sunny in morning but I decided
to ride the winter bike to work anyway...Good Decision. I rode home in torrential rain. Well my new
mudguards work anyway :)

Stan Cox

Adrian Boliston

"Stan Cox" <stanDOTcox@ntlworld.com> wrote in message
news:kHHeb.4552$QH3.2336@newsfep4-winn.server.ntli.net...

> Yup Forecast for here was rain in morning clearing in the afternoon. Sunny in morning but I
> decided to ride the winter bike to work anyway...Good Decision. I rode home in torrential rain.
> Well my new mudguards work anyway :)

There has been a nasty band of rain brewing along the uk south coast all day as seen on

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/radar6.shtml

but luckily I must have been just above it as it was just lightly spitting here in somerset.

Sandy Morton

In article <blfi94$bnqdi$1@ID-111900.news.uni-berlin.de>, Adrian Boliston
<adrian@boliston.co.uk> wrote:
> There has been a nasty band of rain brewing along the uk south coast all day as seen on

Good enuff for the English - it was a purrfect day on the Bicycle Island:-)

--
T h e - e x t e n d e r ! ! ! !

Dave Larrington

Adrian Boliston wrote:

> There has been a nasty band of rain brewing along the uk south coast all day as seen on
>
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/radar6.shtml
>
> but luckily I must have been just above it as it was just lightly spitting here in somerset.

Those dolts from the Met Office assured us natives of London Town Devine that we would be rained on
yesterday arvo. We were not. The same dolts neglected to mention that we /would/ get rained on this
morning. Gun, petrol, matches...

Dave Larrington - http://www.legslarry.beerdrinkers.co.uk/
===========================================================
Editor - British Human Power Club Newsletter
http://www.bhpc.org.uk/
===========================================================

Simon Brooke

Sandy Morton <atm@sandymillport.fsnet.co.uk> writes:

> In article <blfi94$bnqdi$1@ID-111900.news.uni-berlin.de>, Adrian Boliston
> <adrian@boliston.co.uk> wrote:
> > There has been a nasty band of rain brewing along the uk south coast all day as seen on
>
> Good enuff for the English - it was a purrfect day on the Bicycle Island:-)

Absolutely gorgeous evening here. Like a fool I went round the Dalbeattie 'red' route with a
fourteen-year-old who was embarrassingly better than me on all sections (and rode some sections that
I walked). But hey, they're indestructable at that age and I'm not. But it's a wonderful route and
it was a very pleasant ride - just a little faster than I'm used to on the climbs!

--
simon@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

For office use only. Please do not write or type below this line.

Tony Raven

wafflyDIRTYcatLITTERhcsBOX wrote:
>
> I just love it when the Met Office get it wrong :-)
>

That would be every day then IME.

Tony

--
"If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain

Rj Webb

On 01 Oct 2003 17:55:01 GMT, wafflycathcs@aol.comcomcom (wafflyDIRTYcatLITTERhcsBOX) wrote:

>and I love it.
>
>The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts.
>
>Woke this morning to glorious sun.
>
>Went out and did 35 miles round the lanes.
>

Me too... A few fun passes in the Peak, with a triple of course.. BTW if you want a really crap
Sustrans surface.. try the 68 between Buxton and Whaley Bridge. This incorperates the worst yellow
road surface I have ever found..

Great afternoon, and another 500m knocked off...

Richard Webb

Zog The Undenia

Tony Raven wrote:

> That would be every day then IME.

bah - they got it wrong the other way around today and I got wet :-(

Actually, it was a nice cooling sort of drizzle...the sort that only makes your front wet.

N Crowley

wafflycathcs@aol.comcomcom (wafflyDIRTYcatLITTERhcsBOX) wrote in message
news:<20031001135501.17589.00000119@mb-m26.aol.com>...
> and I love it.
>
> The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts.
>
> Woke this morning to glorious sun.

#

You can always check the free latest radar information and judge for yourself.

Tony Raven

n crowley wrote:
>
> You can always check the free latest radar information and judge for yourself.

I use two simple methods that are arguably far more accurate than the Met Office. First assume today
will be the same as yesterday (Persistence Forecasting) and second, look out the window.

Comparison with Persistence Forecasts is one way the Met Office assess their forecasting performance
and they are only slightly better. Where they win is those days where there is a clear shift from
yesterday's weather so if you catch those days by a look out the window I would argue you do better
than the Met Office.

Tony

--
"If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain

James Annan

Tony Raven wrote:

> Comparison with Persistence Forecasts is one way the Met Office assess their forecasting
> performance and they are only slightly better.

I'm not sure they would like your assessment of 'slightly'. But it depends how exactly you define
it. After all, a persistence forecast for an unbiased coin toss is right 50% of the time (as is
'climatology'), and since weather is much more persistent than that, there is not really a lot of
room for improvement. They have certainly been ahead of persistence for many years, and continue to
improve consistently - at least according to their own analysis:-)

One way in which I could certainly envisage them falling down a bit is with local effects eg due to
topography, and looking out of the window should definitely help with that problem. But the most
important bit must surely be that you get up-to-date observations rather than the 6-12h old ones
that they used for the last forecast.

James

Tony Raven

James Annan wrote:
>
> I'm not sure they would like your assessment of 'slightly'. But it depends how exactly you define
> it. After all, a persistence forecast for an unbiased coin toss is right 50% of the time (as is
> 'climatology'), and since weather is much more persistent than that, there is not really a lot of
> room for improvement. They have certainly been ahead of persistence for many years, and continue
> to improve consistently - at least according to their own analysis:-)
>

Their own analysis has been challenged as misleading and representing best case. Their claim of 84%
accuracy was challenged by a study John Thornes at Birmingham University which showed that assuming
tomorrow will be the same as today beats Met Office forecasts in the summer. I gave the Met Office
the benefit of the doubt and the season in using the word "slightly"

Tony

--
"If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain

Dave Larrington

Seeing as how most weather forecasts seem to boil down to either:

o the weather will do what it's doing now, or o partly cloudy with a chance of rain

it's a wonder that they only claim 84%. However, I don't mind the forecaster getting it wrong if
it's Louise Lear.

Dave Larrington - http://www.legslarry.beerdrinkers.co.uk/
===========================================================
Editor - British Human Power Club Newsletter
http://www.bhpc.org.uk/
===========================================================

Job Donjon

The Met Office are never wrong. They FORECAST the weather, they don't promise it. A forecast is just
what it says!! You do need to switch to "logic" mode to understand !!!!! :-)

Tony Raven

job donjon wrote:
> The Met Office are never wrong. They FORECAST the weather, they don't promise it. A forecast is
> just what it says!! You do need to switch to "logic" mode to understand !!!!! :-)

Yep, the forecast is right, its the weather that got it wrong.

Tony ;-)

--
"If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain