So when will the oil run out, then?
View Full Version : So when will the oil run out, then?
they seem to have gone a bit quiet in recent years but for as long as i can remember there have
always been doom mongers predicting that the oil wells will run dry 'soon'.
having some time on my hand[s] i decided to see what the web had to say. it seems they are still out
there[1] and it all looks rather alarming. but there seems to be no emerging consensus or even
emerging debate as with global warming. so is it real or just web-talk [bearing in mind that i once
found a web site that had convincing graphs to show that the world is run by blood drinking lizards
and that speed cameras cost lives]?
so what are people's thoughts on this [and where can i buy shares in bicycles]?
[1] see
http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,1097672,00.html
http://www.zmag.org/weblinks/kerr_endofoil.htm
etc.
[Not Responding] wrote:
> they seem to have gone a bit quiet in recent years but for as long as i can remember there have
> always been doom mongers predicting that the oil wells will run dry 'soon'.
>
> having some time on my hand[s] i decided to see what the web had to say. it seems they are still
> out there[1] and it all looks rather alarming. but there seems to be no emerging consensus or even
> emerging debate as with global warming. so is it real or just web-talk [bearing in mind that i
> once found a web site that had convincing graphs to show that the world is run by blood drinking
> lizards and that speed cameras cost lives]?
>
> so what are people's thoughts on this [and where can i buy shares in bicycles]?
North Sea gas will run out much sooner, although North Sea oil production is falling too. If you've
just bought a new gas boiler it may be your last - unless they're going to go back to "town gas" and
fit new jets to all the burners. We're importing a lot of our gas from France these days - building
all those gas-fired power stations might not have been such a good idea.
There are still large reserves of oil elsewhere in the world, and because most fuel [1] is so
heavily taxed the additional cost of extracting "difficult" reserves could be absorbed if goverments
wanted the price to stay the same.
It's not going to run out any time soon - but the effects of burning it are the real problem.
[1] with the glaring exception of aviation fuels
Blood drinking lizards!!!!!! (help!).
"[Not Responding]" <not_responding@dev.null.invalid> wrote in message
news:v7p5vvoa7vc1tv8bev5lgfmte43d5tgp96@4ax.com...
> they seem to have gone a bit quiet in recent years but for as long as i can remember there have
> always been doom mongers predicting that the oil wells will run dry 'soon'.
>
> having some time on my hand[s] i decided to see what the web had to say. it seems they are still
> out there[1] and it all looks rather alarming.
Someone like the union of concerned scientists say "no serious environmentalists" use that one.
On Wed, 31 Dec 2003 15:18:48 +0000, "[Not Responding]"
<not_responding@dev.null.invalid> wrote:
>they seem to have gone a bit quiet in recent years but for as long as i can remember there have
>always been doom mongers predicting that the oil wells will run dry 'soon'.
Why else do you think Dubya had to send the troops in to Iraq? Do try to keep up at the back there!
Guy
===
May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
http://chapmancentral.demon.co.uk (http://chapmancentral.demon.co.uk/)
In article <3n09vvkeckb43fjc91140bdcftljbfdg3n@4ax.com>, one of infinite monkeys
at the keyboard of "Just zis Guy, you know?" <outlook.bugs@microsoft.com> wrote:
> Why else do you think Dubya had to send the troops in to Iraq?
Because his dad did. Which was because he'd tricked his former friend and regional agent into
invading Kuwait. Which was because, with the cold war winding down, his armaments industry needed a
trade show to avoid economic recession.
> Do try to keep up at the back there!
Exactly.
--
Finally, someone takes a stand against Humbug. Three cheers for Austrian shop workers!
On Thu, 01 Jan 2004 20:28:44 +0000, "Just zis Guy, you know?"
<outlook.bugs@microsoft.com> wrote:
>On Wed, 31 Dec 2003 15:18:48 +0000, "[Not Responding]" <not_responding@dev.null.invalid> wrote:
>
>>they seem to have gone a bit quiet in recent years but for as long as i can remember there have
>>always been doom mongers predicting that the oil wells will run dry 'soon'.
>
>Why else do you think Dubya had to send the troops in to Iraq? Do try to keep up at the back there!
>
>Guy
oh, i'm quite aware that the likes of saddam, ubl and wmd are very much secondary targets [or, handy
excuses to be more accurate] in bush's war for oil. but that's all down to the merkins energy
insecurity; they'd have the same attitude however much oil was remaining for as long as someone else
had their hand on the tap.
if you scout about the web you can find some pretty detailed graphs and hypotheses based on
something called the hubbert curve showing that we might be facing some real problems real soon
[even if the yanks retain their tenuous grasp of the rapidly depleting hose]. 'real soon' is defined
as 5 - 10 years by some.
with such an impending crisis you would think there might be a tincy bit of a mainstream debate;
even if it were a deniers vs accepters debate as with global warming theories. but there is
*nothing*. the closest to mainstream i can track down is george monbiot [url in previous post].
bearing in mind that [a] ever since i was a boy there's been someone claiming the oil's going to end
[and it didn't]; [b] you can find a page on the web propounding any lunatic theory imaginable, the
lack of public debate implies that mainstream scientists have put it in the same box as loch ness
monsters & cold fusion.
i just wondered if anyone here had any opinions or insights.
[Not Responding] wrote:
> bearing in mind that [a] ever since i was a boy there's been someone claiming the oil's going to
> end [and it didn't]; [b] you can find a page on the web propounding any lunatic theory imaginable,
> the lack of public debate implies that mainstream scientists have put it in the same box as loch
> ness monsters & cold fusion.
>
> i just wondered if anyone here had any opinions or insights.
I understand that a significant issue is not the actual volume of oil, but the energy cost of
extracting it. Once it costs a gallon of oil (energy-wise) to extract a gallon of oil, there is
little point in bothering, however much remains in the ground. The energy cost does depend on
technological advances, but (IIRC) seems to be rising from negligible to significant levels, and is
expected to rise further.
However there are plenty of other fossil fuels to burn, and there will be no shortage of schemes to
turn these fuels into suitable sources for cars (not to mention biodiesel and electric power etc),
so I don't see the cost/lack of oil power playing a significant role in transport for some time yet.
James
Dream of the day when bikes will dominate the roads. But then again I'd miss my car. With the advent of hybrid electric/petrol cars like the Toyota Prion, I guess oil usage will drop. Then again the Chinese are starting to buy cars like there's no tomorrow.
One thing is for sure - there will always be idiot drivers on the road.
"[Not Responding]" <not_responding@dev.null.invalid> wrote in message
> >Why else do you think Dubya had to send the troops in to Iraq? Do try to keep up at the
> >back there!
> >
> >Guy
>
> bearing in mind that [a] ever since i was a boy there's been someone claiming the oil's going to
> end [and it didn't]; [b] you can find a
i just wondered if anyone here had any opinions or insights.
1. ISTR reading that oil supplies in most of the OPEC countries had on average less than 25 years.
By a strange coincidence Iraq's supplies had:
135
2. The newly discovered reserves in Iraq were heavily investigated and exploitation deals sort of
agreed by a major world power who strongly opposed military action
(hint, PBP)
On Fri, 02 Jan 2004 15:00:48 GMT, Spider1977
<usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote:
>Toyota Prion
Mad Car Disease?
Guy
===
May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
http://chapmancentral.demon.co.uk (http://chapmancentral.demon.co.uk/)
MartinM wrote:
>
> i just wondered if anyone here had any opinions or insights.
>
I read somewhere that the 'merkin economy can only keep running on tick as long as the world trades
oil in dollars, which provides the market for dollars that 'merkin government and banks have to sell
to generate tick for the consumer and tax payer.
Iraq was starting to get more pally with France and Germany and if Iraq had managed to pursued the
world that it didn't have any WMD (never!) it would of started selling oil in Euros. This may have
swung the whole oil market into euros and stuffed the 'merkins.
Electorally it would be death for any 'merkin government to tax oil to European levels or restrict
the size, mass and power of MDG's. Perhaps a health scare linking driving, 'drivers leg', prostate
cancer, impotence and obesity that can only be avoided by walking, cycling or travelling in public
transport that allows full leg movement.
--
Andy Morris
AndyAtJinkasDotFreeserve.Co.UK
Love this:
Put an end to Outlook Express's messy quotes
http://home.in.tum.de/~jain/software/oe-quotefix/
"AndyMorris" <AndyMorris@DeadSpam.com> wrote in message news:<bt504t$gee$1@news5.svr.pol.co.uk>...
> MartinM wrote:
> >
> > i just wondered if anyone here had any opinions or insights.
> >
>
> I read somewhere that the 'merkin economy can only keep running on tick as long as the world
> trades oil in dollars, which provides the market for dollars that 'merkin government and banks
> have to sell to generate tick for the consumer and tax payer.
>
> Iraq was starting to get more pally with France and Germany and if Iraq had managed to pursued the
> world that it didn't have any WMD (never!) it would of started selling oil in Euros. This may have
> swung the whole oil market into euros and stuffed the 'merkins.
>
> Electorally it would be death for any 'merkin government to tax oil to European levels or restrict
> the size, mass and power of MDG's. Perhaps a health scare linking driving, 'drivers leg', prostate
> cancer, impotence and obesity that can only be avoided by walking, cycling or travelling in public
> transport that allows full leg movement.
But hey , look on the bright side, you can still buy gasoline (whatever that is) for 50p a gallon
when you go to Florida ;-)
<snip>
We're importing a lot of our gas from
> France these days -
We import about 5% of electricity from France. France has very few oil / gas resources.
The gas importation is largely done via the interconnector which links Bacton in Norfolk with
Zeebrugge in Belgium. However this spot was chosen not to tap into the vast low country gas fields
but to link to the huge pipelines which bring the gas from Russia.
Not all my time at British Gas was entirely wasted.....
--
Andrew
"Look laddie, if you're in the penalty area and aren't quite sure what to do
with the ball, just stick it in the net and we'll discuss all your options
afterwards."
"AndyMorris" <AndyMorris@DeadSpam.com> wrote in message
news:bt504t$gee$1@news5.svr.pol.co.uk...
> MartinM wrote:
> >
> > i just wondered if anyone here had any opinions or insights.
> >
>
> I read somewhere that the 'merkin economy can only keep running on tick as long as the world
> trades oil in dollars, which provides the market for dollars that 'merkin government and banks
> have to sell to generate tick
for
> the consumer and tax payer.
>
> Iraq was starting to get more pally with France and Germany and if Iraq
had
> managed to pursued the world that it didn't have any WMD (never!) it would of started selling oil
> in Euros. This may have swung the whole oil market into euros and stuffed the 'merkins.
AFAIK the Iraqis had already demanded payment under the oil for food programme in Euros. Some people
have made the same point, that the Gringos could not allow this to continue or possible suffer a
domino effect of other counties also trading oil in Euros.
--
Andrew
"Look laddie, if you're in the penalty area and aren't quite sure what to do
with the ball, just stick it in the net and we'll discuss all your options
afterwards."
>
> Electorally it would be death for any 'merkin government to tax oil to
> European levels or restrict the size, mass and power of MDG's. Perhaps a
> health scare linking driving, 'drivers leg', prostate cancer, impotence
and
> obesity that can only be avoided by walking, cycling or travelling in
public
> transport that allows full leg movement.
>
> --
> Andy Morris
>
> AndyAtJinkasDotFreeserve.Co.UK
>
>
> Love this:
> Put an end to Outlook Express's messy quotes
> http://home.in.tum.de/~jain/software/oe-quotefix/
"MartinM" <Martinm2@wcms.org.uk> wrote in message
news:3cf5c6dc.0401030023.71a8303e@posting.google.com...
> "AndyMorris" <AndyMorris@DeadSpam.com> wrote in message
news:<bt504t$gee$1@news5.svr.pol.co.uk>...
> > MartinM wrote:
> > >
> > > i just wondered if anyone here had any opinions or insights.
> > >
> >
> > I read somewhere that the 'merkin economy can only keep running on tick
as
> > long as the world trades oil in dollars, which provides the market for dollars that 'merkin
> > government and banks have to sell to generate tick
for
> > the consumer and tax payer.
> >
> > Iraq was starting to get more pally with France and Germany and if Iraq
had
> > managed to pursued the world that it didn't have any WMD (never!) it
would
> > of started selling oil in Euros. This may have swung the whole oil
market
> > into euros and stuffed the 'merkins.
> >
> > Electorally it would be death for any 'merkin government to tax oil to European levels or
> > restrict the size, mass and power of MDG's. Perhaps a health scare linking driving, 'drivers
> > leg', prostate cancer, impotence
and
> > obesity that can only be avoided by walking, cycling or travelling in
public
> > transport that allows full leg movement.
>
> But hey , look on the bright side, you can still buy gasoline (whatever that is) for 50p a gallon
> when you go to Florida ;-)
So is that an Imperial or US gallon ?.... (and does anyone know the difference ?? ;-) Dave.
"\(T'other\) Dave" <no-one@nowhere.org> wrote in message
> > But hey , look on the bright side, you can still buy gasoline (whatever that is) for 50p a
> > gallon when you go to Florida ;-)
>
> So is that an Imperial or US gallon ?.... (and does anyone know the difference ?? ;-) Dave.
Yes a US gallon is 8x 16fl oz which is : 6.4 pints? they don't have pints in the US do
they? or yards?
Strangley enough they know what metric is when it comes to selling things for the European market
;-) Martin
MartinM wrote:
>
> Yes a US gallon is 8x 16fl oz which is : 6.4 pints? they don't have pints in the US do they?
> or yards?
They do have pints, and very disappointing they are too, when drinking beer (16floz rather than out
20floz, which also explains the difference in a gallon = 8 pints).
James
James Annan wrote:
> MartinM wrote:
>
> >
> > Yes a US gallon is 8x 16fl oz which is : 6.4 pints? they don't have pints in the US do they? or
> > yards?
>
> They do have pints, and very disappointing they are too, when drinking beer (16floz rather than
> out 20floz, which also explains the difference in a gallon = 8 pints).
And regrettably many pub landlords over here like to follow American practice by serving 16oz in a
20oz glass, making the space up with a load of frothy air :-(
OK, I exagrerate a bit, but short-measure is one of the biggest rip-offs in the pub trade.
John B
JohnB wrote:
>
> James Annan wrote:
>
>>They do have pints, and very disappointing they are too, when drinking beer (16floz rather than
>>out 20floz, which also explains the difference in a gallon = 8 pints).
>
>
> And regrettably many pub landlords over here like to follow American practice by serving 16oz in a
> 20oz glass, making the space up with a load of frothy air :-(
For me, "over here" is Japan, and both types of pint are (occasionally) served. Was a bit of an
unpleasant surprise the first time I got such a small glass, and then a pleasant one when I got the
UK size recently at a different place - no prizes for guessing which one I'm likely to visit more
frequently!
James
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