Couple quick questions with TSS/CTL jumps

I don't have WKO, but calculate my own TSS/CTL from the available information. TSS is easy, but I'm just starting with the CTL calculations.

CTL is a rolling 6 week average of weekly TSS, right? Eg, sum up 6 weeks of TSS and divide by 6?

So, is it theoretically possible to jump from a CTL of 8 to 126 by putting in an 880TSS week?

Is it possible to jump from a CTL of 76 to 235 by putting in 1644TSS in one week? Does that sound reasonable? I think my calculations are wrong...

__________________
Winter training camp: Austin: 1/3-1/12
Late winter camp, San Francisco: 2/12-2/15
Collegiate Nationals: 5/8-5/10
iliveonnitro.blogspot.com

No. It is an exponentially-weighted moving average with a (default) time constant of 6 wk (i.e., a half-life of 29 d).

May I have the formula for calculating it?

Trying to match it is fairly similar to a 3-period moving average trendline. I cannot get an exponential or polynomial curve (even 6th order) to fit it. Even given this, I cannot extract a value from a graph with this program.

If I wanted to calculate it in MS Excel (until this college student can afford WKO+, probably in February right before collegiate season), how can I go about doing it so that I get an accurate number?

Thank you.

__________________
Winter training camp: Austin: 1/3-1/12
Late winter camp, San Francisco: 2/12-2/15
Collegiate Nationals: 5/8-5/10
iliveonnitro.blogspot.com

The search button is your friend :

http://www.cyclingforums.com/t448790.html

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Piotr already provided a link to the calculations, but no your examples are not possible.

With a starting CTL of 8 and an 880 TSS week your CTL would rise to approximately 26 TSS/day at the end of the week with a 42 day CTL time constant. Assuming a starting ATL of 8 or starting TSB of 0 your TSB would be approximatley -55 the day following your 880 week assuming a 7 day ATL time constant and you'd very likely be trashed from such a sudden increase in training load.

One rule of thumb on smart load building is to try to avoid sustained CTL ramp rates steeper than 5-8 points per week. So if your CTL really did start at 76 you wouldn't want it to be higher than perhaps 81-84 after a week and maybe 89-90 the following week. As your CTL load builds you'll probably want to slow that ramp rate even more to avoid overtraining and illness.

Good luck,
-Dave
P.S. I know a hundred bucks sounds like a lot of cash to a student, but WKO+ really is worth the price of a couple of racing tires or a lightweight cassette. Spreadsheets are handy for planning purposes but WKO+ really is worth the price if you can save up the cash.

Thanks for your help guys, that link was very useful. Incorporated ATL, CTL, TSB from it. Calculated that my current CTL is a measly 75. But, that's still a LOT better than the 48 it was last year. I went over all of last year and was able to hit a high CTL of 108, and my peak was timed perfectly (made sense, considering my results).

Time to work my CTL back up to 108+ for collegiate nationals and hopefully 120+ by SuperWeek. Thanks again for the help, guys.

__________________
Winter training camp: Austin: 1/3-1/12
Late winter camp, San Francisco: 2/12-2/15
Collegiate Nationals: 5/8-5/10
iliveonnitro.blogspot.com

Nitro, I second Dave on his recommendation of WKO+. I had the damndest time getting mine, but I finally did. I think it's worth every bit of the price.

You know, you can try it our for free for two weeks.

I know how great it is; I used it before while interning as a coach. This is why I'm trying to do my own analysis for now -- I can't really live without the basics. But, trying to save up the money for it is pretty difficult. Like I said, hopefully in time for collegiate season in Feb/March.

Thanks again guys.

__________________
Winter training camp: Austin: 1/3-1/12
Late winter camp, San Francisco: 2/12-2/15
Collegiate Nationals: 5/8-5/10
iliveonnitro.blogspot.com