15 Watts per Year?

vio765 · #1 04-30.-2007

is raising my FTP by 15 watts per year a reasonable goal? i know there are several factors to play in this (such as genetics, recovery and training methods), but is this goal reasonable? of course, the body is not linear when it comes to improvement. for example, one year i increase my FTP by 5 watts, and the next year will be 20 watts. assume the following:

230Watts FTP
~700 TSS per week @ ~0.780 IF
~17-18% of total workout time is at Threshold
500 training hours/year
153pounds
1-3 FTP intervals per week
1-3 tempo (60-90min) per week
1 day in the gym
1 day off
examplary diet and recovery practices
5 TTs a year and 6-8 other races (mostly road)

let me know if you need more info

daveryanwyoming · #2 04-30.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by vio765

is raising my FTP by 15 watts per year a reasonable goal?...

15 watts per year sounds very conservative as far as goal setting given your starting point. Perhaps not if you're projecting out 20 years at that rate

but you should be able to come up quite a bit from an FTP of 230 watts and 3.3 w/kg. Everyone is different so there's no way to know for certain, but 4 w/kg is a totally reasonable goal on the kind of schedule you describe and I'm talking about this season not three to five years out. My FTP has gone up by over 30 watts in the last month as I transitioned from indoor SST/L4 work to a five day a week outdoor schedule.

Your schedule sounds good with L4 and L3 work, but don't leave out some L5 work as well. I rest on Monday and then either sprint or do L5 work to start my training week and then follow that up with a day of L4/SST repeats followed by a longer L3 day, another rest day and then weekend stuff that could be races, group rides, more L4 or more L3 or sometimes just a long ride for the heck of it. I always feel like I could be doing more on this schedule but my FTP as well as power over shorter durations just keep rising.

Good luck,
Dave

rmur17 · #3 04-30.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by vio765

is raising my FTP by 15 watts per year a reasonable goal? i know there are several factors to play in this (such as genetics, recovery and training methods), but is this goal reasonable? of course, the body is not linear when it comes to improvement. for example, one year i increase my FTP by 5 watts, and the next year will be 20 watts. assume the following:

230Watts FTP
~700 TSS per week @ ~0.780 IF
~17-18% of total workout time is at Threshold
500 training hours/year
153pounds
1-3 FTP intervals per week
1-3 tempo (60-90min) per week
1 day in the gym
1 day off
examplary diet and recovery practices
5 TTs a year and 6-8 other races (mostly road)

let me know if you need more info

700 TSS at say 50 training weeks per year -> 35,000 Tss/yr. No issue at all with that - definitely a solid training load.

How many years have you been training in that manner (or what manner) to get to your current FTP? And what age are you? Those would be my first questions..

vio765 · #4 04-30.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by rmur17

700 TSS at say 50 training weeks per year -> 35,000 Tss/yr. No issue at all with that - definitely a solid training load.

How many years have you been training in that manner (or what manner) to get to your current FTP? And what age are you? Those would be my first questions..

i train like 37 weeks per year (formal, rigorous training) and the rest is a transition period where i do a lot of yoga and some weight training. but i still ride about 200-300 TSS per week during the transition. i rode 2 years on a XC mountain bike (casually, socially, not competitively, but regularly). this will be my 3rd year of road cycling. the previous years werent very serious like this year. i am 28. i am guessing that last years FTP was 215-220 and the year before that was maybe 200ish. not sure (no powermeter!)

john979 · #5 04-30.-2007

Mostly likely you will see larger gains the first couple of years training then your increase will drop off.

giannip · #6 05-01.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveryanwyoming

15 watts per year sounds very conservative as far as goal setting given your starting point. Perhaps not if you're projecting out 20 years at that rate

but you should be able to come up quite a bit from an FTP of 230 watts and 3.3 w/kg. Everyone is different so there's no way to know for certain, but 4 w/kg is a totally reasonable goal on the kind of schedule you describe and I'm talking about this season not three to five years out. My FTP has gone up by over 30 watts in the last month as I transitioned from indoor SST/L4 work to a five day a week outdoor schedule.

Your schedule sounds good with L4 and L3 work, but don't leave out some L5 work as well. I rest on Monday and then either sprint or do L5 work to start my training week and then follow that up with a day of L4/SST repeats followed by a longer L3 day, another rest day and then weekend stuff that could be races, group rides, more L4 or more L3 or sometimes just a long ride for the heck of it. I always feel like I could be doing more on this schedule but my FTP as well as power over shorter durations just keep rising.

Good luck,
Dave

Is this continually the same workouts every week or would you build for say 3 weeks and drop off for 1?

rmur17 · #7 05-01.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by vio765

i train like 37 weeks per year (formal, rigorous training) and the rest is a transition period where i do a lot of yoga and some weight training. but i still ride about 200-300 TSS per week during the transition. i rode 2 years on a XC mountain bike (casually, socially, not competitively, but regularly). this will be my 3rd year of road cycling. the previous years werent very serious like this year. i am 28. i am guessing that last years FTP was 215-220 and the year before that was maybe 200ish. not sure (no powermeter!)

okay - sounds like you shouldn't be knocking on the genetic ceiling anytime soon. 15W or 5-8% per year isn't unreasonable at all. As others have said, progress isn't often linear - some years may flatline if you can't train properly due to crashes or illness and some may be much better. At only 28 and only three years of cycling under your belt you can look forward to many years of improvement.

daveryanwyoming · #8 05-01.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by giannip

Is this continually the same workouts every week or would you build for say 3 weeks and drop off for 1?

I've moved away from preset work week / rest week cycles. I take extra rest if life gets in the way, if I'm tapering for an important event or if my CTL ramp is getting too steep in response to an unusually large training dose.

I started training last fall with a more traditional 3 week on, one week off pattern but between posts from folks I respect on this forum (Tom Anhalt comes to mind, thanks!) and the feeling that I was often resting when I felt great and then trying to train when life was making things very tough I switched to taking rest when I need it or don't have much choice or as a preventative measure when I've loaded up a lot of training. The Performance Manageer in WKO+ has made this much easier than back in the days when I just tracked hours or miles.

Everyone has a different idea of what constitutes an excessive CTL ramp, but if I bump up my CTL by more than 10 TSS per week I back off and stabilize a bit. If I know I have an extended business trip or other interuption coming I tend to hit things a bit harder in the week leading up to forced off time. I still try to train on hotel ergs and otherwise but it's not always possible. If I have an upcoming A or B race I do some spreadsheet based what if planning to manage a taper without spending too much CTL in the process. I've attached my Performance Manager chart for the last 26 weeks of training. The two big positive TSB spikes represent business travel where I trained pretty hard in anticipation of the forced rest. There are also a couple of B race mini tapers in there including one a couple of weeks ago where TSB rose into the low positive numbers for two days prior to a road race where I felt great and rode really well.

I don't know if that exactly answers your question, but I train pretty steadily these days unless I have to back off, am tapering or feel I may be digging too deep a hole based on CTL ramp and TSB. I do mix up the schedule a bit so not every week looks like the week I described but that's my typical training week and what seems to be keeping me on the positive FTP ramp. The racing schedule is pretty sparse here in western Wyoming so I train more and race less than I did when I raced in NorCal. All in all I think that may be a good thing although I'm jealous of the guys riding Copperopolis and the Madera stage race, those were mainstays for years.

Gotta go, it's Tuesday and time to sprint

-Dave

mullerrj · #9 05-03.-2007

I would say that 15 watts per year is conservative if you're an elite athlete and have hit a wall..but for a newbie, you should be averaging at least that a month- I would think. I'm a relative newbie road rider (less than 2 yrs riding) and I've started charting/plotting my FTP each month since January and here are my values: 200, 215, 230, 260 and just the other day 275. My current power to weight ratio is 3.5 watts/kg. My goal is to reach a P/W ratio of 4 by the end of this year. Not sure how I'm going to reach that..by losing weight, by gaining power, or a combination of both. But, these values did not come easy..lot of hard work spinning at the gym, at home with my Cycleops Pro 300 PT, and on the road with the A-B group rides in my area. You can do it..15 watts/mo..if you're a relative newbie like me..cause I'm an old fart (almost 50) and I'M DOING IT!

Piotr · #10 05-03.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveryanwyoming

My FTP has gone up by over 30 watts in the last month as I transitioned from indoor SST/L4 work to a five day a week outdoor schedule.

Can you elaborate? I'm very interested why I didn't increase 30 W over the past 2 months despite the indoor/outdoor transition.

Edit: I guess your last post does answer some questions, but 30 W in a month? Sounds more like such an increase could come after a taper rather than a change in training.

daveryanwyoming · #11 05-03.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by Piotr

Can you elaborate? I'm very interested why I didn't increase 30 W over the past 2 months despite the indoor/outdoor transition.

Well, I'm surprised as well, pleasantly surprised but I sure didn't expect a big jump like that.

I've got a few theories. One is that I was just a bit lazy indoors since it aint a lot of fun to sit still and stare at a fan for an hour at a time. Or put differently RPE is higher indoors and the suffer factor seems higher so perhaps I wasn't hitting my best numbers on the KK trainer. But I did stick with it for 5 months of Wyoming winter and I only had one or two weeks where travel kept me away from my SST and L4 sets.

Another theory is that I'm riding more days now that I'm outside. I balanced the trainer time with XC skating over the winter and raced a few ski marathons as cross training. I suspect I got some crossover benefit, but now I'm getting a steady 5 days a week on the bike so from a specificity standpoint I'm targeting the right muscles and right range of motion for cycling with all my workouts not just some of them. OTOH, I think I would have burned out trying to do 5 indoor trainer workouts a week and I love ski skating and backcountry skiing so those things kept me sane and may have given me some crossover benefit.

A third theory that has occurred to me as I started racing and doing fast group rides is that I just push myself harder when I'm riding with other fast riders. I'll dig deeper to bridge or cover a break or even taking my turns at the front. I don't think I ever had that kind of motivation on the trainer even on test days. Like you I came back and analyzed my first couple of race results and my NP numbers were way higher than anything I'd seen over the winter. I don't think they're NP busters since my histogram step down for a month of outdoor riding supports those numbers and my long L4 intervals are consistently within 10 watts of my new FTP estimate and that's assuming I'm going to do 3x20 or 2x30 and won't go all out on any of them.

Our numbers are pretty similar, I'm a masters racer these days and after more than a decade off the bike my license came back as a 4 on the road and 3 on the track so I've got to earn my way back out of the 4's all over again. Over the winter my FTP rose to 260 or so and NP for the first hour of my first race (a 2 hour hilly RR) was 284. I felt great in that race and never felt close to losing it, I moved up at will, rode at the front on climbs and attacked half a dozen times trying to spur some kind of action but they'd just chase me down and sit up. I still finished well even after letting myself get boxed before an uphill field sprint (the decade off shows there with poor tactics in the closing miles especially when we just weren't going very fast).

Since that race I'm consistently riding L4 repeats at 275 to 285 watts and have seen forty five minute to an hour long NPs in the low 290s. My histogram for the last three weeks has a dramatic step down at ~ 290 watts as well.

Anyway, I'm not sure how much longer my power will stay on the upward climb, but so far I'm very happy with the transition to riding outdoors. I'm riding a 3 stage omnium in a couple of weeks that includes a TT so I plan on putting my new FTP estimate to the test. I'll keep you posted.

BTW are you planning on riding the High Uintas SR or the Utah State 40K TT? I'm eyeing both of those races. I'm gonna be out of town for the Bear Lake RR, but that looked good as well.
-Dave

Edit: I don't think it's taper related since I only did a mini taper for those races, basically just 80% of duration while maintaining the same workout schedule and the same or even a bit more intensity. Also I've been able to continue hitting those numbers since that first race and have been building, not tapering during that time.

Piotr · #12 05-03.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by daveryanwyoming

Well, I'm surprised as well, pleasantly surprised but I sure didn't expect a big jump like that.

I've got a few theories. One is that I was just a bit lazy indoors since it aint a lot of fun to sit still and stare at a fan for an hour at a time. Or put differently RPE is higher indoors and the suffer factor seems higher so perhaps I wasn't hitting my best numbers on the KK trainer. But I did stick with it for 5 months of Wyoming winter and I only had one or two weeks where travel kept me away from my SST and L4 sets.

Another theory is that I'm riding more days now that I'm outside. I balanced the trainer time with XC skating over the winter and raced a few ski marathons as cross training. I suspect I got some crossover benefit, but now I'm getting a steady 5 days a week on the bike so from a specificity standpoint I'm targeting the right muscles and right range of motion for cycling with all my workouts not just some of them. OTOH, I think I would have burned out trying to do 5 indoor trainer workouts a week and I love ski skating and backcountry skiing so those things kept me sane and may have given me some crossover benefit.

A third theory that has occurred to me as I started racing and doing fast group rides is that I just push myself harder when I'm riding with other fast riders. I'll dig deeper to bridge or cover a break or even taking my turns at the front. I don't think I ever had that kind of motivation on the trainer even on test days. Like you I came back and analyzed my first couple of race results and my NP numbers were way higher than anything I'd seen over the winter. I don't think they're NP busters since my histogram step down for a month of outdoor riding supports those numbers and my long L4 intervals are consistently within 10 watts of my new FTP estimate and that's assuming I'm going to do 3x20 or 2x30 and won't go all out on any of them.

Our numbers are pretty similar, I'm a masters racer these days and after more than a decade off the bike my license came back as a 4 on the road and 3 on the track so I've got to earn my way back out of the 4's all over again. Over the winter my FTP rose to 260 or so and NP for the first hour of my first race (a 2 hour hilly RR) was 284. I felt great in that race and never felt close to losing it, I moved up at will, rode at the front on climbs and attacked half a dozen times trying to spur some kind of action but they'd just chase me down and sit up. I still finished well even after letting myself get boxed before an uphill field sprint (the decade off shows there with poor tactics in the closing miles especially when we just weren't going very fast).

Since that race I'm consistently riding L4 repeats at 275 to 285 watts and have seen forty five minute to an hour long NPs in the low 290s. My histogram for the last three weeks has a dramatic step down at ~ 290 watts as well.

Anyway, I'm not sure how much longer my power will stay on the upward climb, but so far I'm very happy with the transition to riding outdoors. I'm riding a 3 stage omnium in a couple of weeks that includes a TT so I plan on putting my new FTP estimate to the test. I'll keep you posted.

BTW are you planning on riding the High Uintas SR or the Utah State 40K TT? I'm eyeing both of those races. I'm gonna be out of town for the Bear Lake RR, but that looked good as well.
-Dave

Edit: I don't think it's taper related since I only did a mini taper for those races, basically just 80% of duration while maintaining the same workout schedule and the same or even a bit more intensity. Also I've been able to continue hitting those numbers since that first race and have been building, not tapering during that time.

Thanks for the quick response - you must a be a quick typist

. Looks like your rise in FTP might be due to undertraining on the bike during the winter months. 1hr indoors for me felt like a day off

. After the transition I didn't feel like I started working any harder. In fact, I felt a little tired and took 2 weeks very easy. I don't think I improved on my FTP at all since mid-March. Despite being able to climb some canyons here, I feel like I'm neglecting serious L4 work. Call me crazy, but I kinda like indoor training.

I just wish I could ride my 20 min faster now than I did in Feb.-March.

I'll probably skip Bear Lake unless I feel awesome the week before. Because my CTL hovers around 70 right now, I may not be ready to spend time and money to race 104 miles (2 laps around the lake for cat. 3's) 140 miles from home when I could have a great training ride here. After this weekend's Buffalo Stampede I plan on spending the rest of May building my CTL and if all goes well I may be ready for High Uintas. It's fun to ride by 2-3 foot snow banks in late June, although this year's snow pack is a little lower than usual. I'd love to do the 40K State TT. The only issue I have is not having any TT equipment whatsoever. I'll probably invest in some bars, but that's about it. We'll see. BTW, you may want to come out for Garden Creek race in Idaho on Memorial Day weekend. Perhaps you did the Tax Day Circuit race? That's a great course, rolling and climbing to a finish. Someone submitted a photo of the finish to Velonews. I wish I could do that race again soon.

daveryanwyoming · #13 05-03.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by Piotr

....Looks like your rise in FTP might be due to undertraining on the bike during the winter months. 1hr indoors for me felt like a day off

.

Yeah, that could be, but undertraining is sure relative. It sure wasn't undertraining compared to the months of little gear spinning coaches had me do during the winter months twenty years ago. I started this winter with two hour sessions, but found a morning and evening one hour session was more tolerable. I came out of winter indoor training with a CTL of 67 and have taken it into the low 80s since then so I've definitely increased my training load since getting outdoors but it's sure a lot easier mentally.

Quote:

After the transition I didn't feel like I started working any harder. In fact, I felt a little tired and took 2 weeks very easy. I don't think I improved on my FTP at all since mid-March. Despite being able to climb some canyons here, I feel like I'm neglecting serious L4 work....

That's a pretty big difference. I came out of winter work totally psyched to ride. I've been doing one or two L4 sessions a week usually one on Wed. and one Sat. and up to two L3/SST sessions per week if I'm not racing. I just find 20 and 30 minute L4/SST or even hour and a half L3/SST intervals so much easier mentally out on the road. Those months on the trainer really changed my perspective WRT training quality or what RDO was calling efficiency a while back. I realized how easy it is to accumulate junk miles outdoors so I try hard to leave home with a training goal. It might be sprints or L5/L4 repeats or a long L3 ride but I try to limit L1 to WU, CD and rest between efforts. If I can't handle the preplanned pace I bump down a level and can usually get some good work that way. I really try to avoid just noodling around in L1 since I'm really not doing any on bike rest days. It really bugs me now to look down and see L1 power numbers unless I'm intentionally resting between efforts.

Quote:

I plan on spending the rest of May building my CTL and if all goes well I may be ready for High Uintas. ... I'd love to do the 40K State TT. The only issue I have is not having any TT equipment whatsoever. I'll probably invest in some bars, but that's about it.

Yeah both look good to me. Looks like it's open masters for the High Uintas so I'll probably get schooled on my current comeback fitness but I still might do it. I'm pretty sure I can go under an hour with clip on bars and limited time trial kit but I mostly want to do the 40K as a gold standard FTP test. I'll sure try for a good time but I was a lousy TT rider back in the day so I'd like to see what I can do now with all the long interval L4 work I've been doing.

Quote:

...BTW, you may want to come out for Garden Creek race in Idaho on Memorial Day weekend. Perhaps you did the Tax Day Circuit race? That's a great course, rolling and climbing to a finish. ...

I saw Garden Creek on the calendar, I'll look into it. I was out of town for the Tax Day race, sounds like a real good one for next year though. I actually did a race in Oregon that weekend IIRCC.

Thanks for the race suggestions,
-Dave

john979 · #14 05-04.-2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by mullerrj

I would say that 15 watts per year is conservative if you're an elite athlete and have hit a wall..but for a newbie, you should be averaging at least that a month- I would think. I'm a relative newbie road rider (less than 2 yrs riding) and I've started charting/plotting my FTP each month since January and here are my values: 200, 215, 230, 260 and just the other day 275. My current power to weight ratio is 3.5 watts/kg. My goal is to reach a P/W ratio of 4 by the end of this year. Not sure how I'm going to reach that..by losing weight, by gaining power, or a combination of both. But, these values did not come easy..lot of hard work spinning at the gym, at home with my Cycleops Pro 300 PT, and on the road with the A-B group rides in my area. You can do it..15 watts/mo..if you're a relative newbie like me..cause I'm an old fart (almost 50) and I'M DOING IT!

I have a PT300 Pro too and went from 250 to 290 in 8 weeks, and a friend with the same beast went from 220 to 270 since January. Such intra-season gains are typical. Inter-season gains are different -- i.e. peak 2006 to peak 2007.

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