Average year over year change in FTP? - Page 2

Originally Posted by daveryanwyoming

Central limit theorem all but guarantees it if enough folks reply and their results aren't strangely dependent on one another.

Originally Posted by daveryanwyoming

I suspect that's why we'll see a fairly well defined mean and a normal distribution with an outlying peak on the higher tail. IOW, the curve will be fairly well defined for folks with a few years of consistent training but newer cyclists, and folks coming back from long layoffs or injuries will represent that smaller peak on the high end. 'Course there's always the question of whether folks are training effectively and progressing as fast as they might be....

Just my swag at what the data will show,
-Dave
P.S. And we probably won't see a peak on the lower end, lot's of folks are probably going backwards on their power gains but I bet most aren't hanging around these forums or posting their results when they burn out on training

Originally Posted by musher

I choose +5% to 10% , i had a PM for 3 years ( starting my 4 th).
My first year 5%, i was learning how to use a PM, 2 year 8% & 3 years 9%.
Iwill be very happy with 5% this winter.