Is it time to adjust my FTP setting?

So what do you guys think?
I have been ramping CTL for 12 weeks from zero up to 96. I reduced mileage last week by 50 percent to taper for a race I wanted to do well in. I maintained my intensity during the week. My CTL dropped to 88.5 and TSB went from minus 39 to +2.1 the day of the race.
After the race I downloaded the file and to my surprise, I pulled a PB for my 1 minute , 5 minute and 20 minute maximal mean power.
My current FTP is set at 315 watts. I can usually push somerwhere around 320-330 watts during my 20 minute L4 intervals (normalised power) with a VI of around 1.01 – 1.06.
My 20 minute maximal power in the race was 330 watts average and normalised power was 367 watts. Obviously my VI was larger than I usually see during training.
My questions.
1. Is this to be expected after a one week taper?
2. Would it be wise to increase my ftp setting or do you think my gain in ftp is simply a result of the taper and will not be repeatable now that I am back to a normal training load and ATL rises once again which will induce more fatigue?

If your FTP is 315 then you rode as you should. A 20min average of 330 works to an FTP of 313.5, according to my trusty calculator. 330x0.95=313.5

However, if one takes the normalised power then your FTP is 348. If you can regularly push more than FTP during L4 intervals then I'd say your FTP is set a tad low.

so I have to be able to regularly push 348 watts if the wattage I pushed in my race is to reflect a new ftp value.

I guess a one off due to the freshness of a taper is just that, a one off.

Why is it then that the ftp testing protocol suggests that you be sufficiently rested and motivated?

Wont this give a one off best result that can't be easily repeated in training due to fatigue setting in?

I don't think I can regularly push 348 watts once my regular training load is in full swing.

but in the test you have to first have to do some hard efforts (5min all out / 20 TT / 15 min L2) so that takes care of the freshness factor.

I THINK

your right about the 5 minute warm up component.

Although I think this would not have been a problem during my race.I achieved 367 NP for a 20 min period which began after 20 km where I had averaged 240 watts. The first section was downhill so it was relatively easy. I actually averaged 365 watts NP for a period of 33 minutes. I assume this would therefore includes the 5 minute max warm up.

I don't know but it sounds plausible to me.

Personal bests? Yes, especially if you've been hitting it hard for 12 weeks straight without really coming up for air and the race was hard.

FTP is your rested, best-case 1hr output. You're not supposed to be able to hit it regularly for *1 hour* durations during training, which is why people estimate it from shorter intervals and assume that they'd be able to over-perform on race day. So, don't sandbag on your FTP estimate because you're afraid that you won't be able to hit it under normal training circumstances. That just leads to an inflated CTL number.

IMO, your race day numbers are strong enough to justify the questions you're asking, but not so strong that your FTP estimate is *clearly* low. Only you know how maxed you were during the race, and how hard you push during your 20-min training intervals. Based on your strong race performance, I think it'd be worth trying to test yourself during training and see what you can do in a focused situation (ie, really max-out a 2x20 set to see if you can hit 320-330w AP for the set), and then check your FTP estimate with that data.

I'd put it this way: I'm not at all surprised at the personal bests for 1 min and 5 min power. OTOH, unless the race entailed a long climb I am a bit surprised that you set a personal best for 20 min power (as mass start races usually don't require you to go truly "flat out" for that long).

Based on your level 4 intervals alone, I definitely think that your functional threshold power is higher than 315 W. However, whether it is "only" 325 W or somewhere north of the figure is difficult to say for certain, as I have no way of telling just how difficult that 20 min effort during the race at 330 W average power/367 W normalized power was for you.

So, how did the race go?

I ended up with a fourth place. I stuffed the sprint.

That 33 minute section was all up hill except for a couple of flat sections in between. The hill itself was not that steep. Probably about 2.5 - 3 percent gradient average.

There was a pretty full on attack at the beginning of the climb, and then it was a really hard grind to the top. The last 10 minutes I was absolutely on the edge. It was for sure the hardest 30 minute effort I have ever put in.

My heart rate was higher than what I usually can achieve during training as well. This could be related to the extra freshness thanks to the taper though.


Yeh I was very surprised that I achieved a 5 min PB as well as 20 minute PB.
Although the 5 min PB was only about 5 watts above my previous PB.

Also the funny thing is I still felt fresh at the end. After an effort like this, I rarely have a lot left to finish off the race. I had plenty. Tapers really do work.