Quit knocking Zabel.

After last year's Tour and with this one coming up, a lot of people are complaining that Zabel is a liability to Ullrich. And suggesting that Zabel shouldn't ride the Tour this year so that Ulle can win.

Why? What? It seems that the media has convinced everyone that the Tour cannot be won without a Postal/Discovery like dedication to the leader. Total crap! I wish anyone would show me how Zabel cost Ulle the 2004 Tour. It's just nonsense. Zabel isn't a great time trialist, but come on. He's at least as good as Noval and Padrnos. And racing for sprints isn't costing Ullrich time in the mountains.

Leaving Zabel off Telekom's (I mean, T-Mobile) team at the Tour de France would deprive the race of a great, classy, and hard working rider. And it wouldn't help Ulle.

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Harry

You cant be serious? I love Zabel, I mean the guy is my hero, but if you cant see how haveing a specialist sprinter competing for the green jersy detracts from a GC rider in that team then you know little about cycling my friend. A sprinter doesnt just appear at the end of a stage and go hell for leather, it takes a whole team effort to get him there then 3 or 4 specialist to do the last 2 - 3 KM. You seen T- Mobile last year chasing breackaways for Zabel instead of conserving energy for helping in the Hills. Did it cost JU the tour? no, but i think it may have if Vino was riding. I would love to see Zabel in this years tour, as a team leader with a specialist sprint team to back him up....not as part of Mobile

In 1997, Telekom (as was) won: Yellow Jersey, Best Team, White Jersey - oh and the Green Jersey for Zabel.

It is complete and utter tosh to say that Zabel costs Telekom/Mobile the overall - I agree with tckylde, this is just the usual propoganda, the same that says you can't win a GT double anymore. And your comments show a complete lack of understanding of the kind of sprinter Zabel is - he's more in the mould of the roadman sprinter, like Kelly, able to come off the right wheel and take the win or go from a way out (his last Tour de France stage win was a slight uphill drag as I recall); than a pure speed machine like Petacchi or Cipollini who are dependent on their lead out men to get them in the right place at the right time.

Since sprinters don't cost anything to the GC guys then perhaps we will see a sprinter in Discovery's lineup at this years Tour? I don't think so! (Atleast not if Lance has anything to say about it). It's not 1997 anymore, things have changed. If you want your team to win everyone and I mean everyone has to be comitted to helping the leader win. You can't have sideshows distracting you from the ultimate goal anymore.

He who has the most and best weapons and the least bad luck will win. Team harmony is of great importance and some teams do not have it.

You figure out which ones do not and you have your less effective teams!

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Dope,when training and talent just aren't enough.

Again, this is Discovery propoganda - you can't win with a sprinter/times have changed/can't have distractions. Once Armstrong has retired, I can see cycling undergoing a change - the ProTour demands that 3 of the top 5 riders on any PT team is present at every GT - we may very well see a double winner (impossible if you believe the Armstrong camp) and I doubt strongly we will see one rider dominate the Tour (and only the Tour).

I for one am glad that T-Mobil don't give in to the pressure and continue to give Zabel a place on the team and a shot at another Green Jersey. Because if all teams played it the Discovery way what an incredibly bland and dull race that would be.

We should be careful to distinguish between two positions: (1) a team cannot win the GC with a sprinter (clearly false), and (2) a team has a better chance of winning the GC without a sprinter (I believe generally true and true in Zabel's case)

Here are the reasons Zabel is a liability, as I have argued for some time on this and a former board now:

PART I: Why Zabel does not help JU:

-- Zabel is not a climber, even though he might be a decent climber AMONG the sprinters. Therefore, he cannot help Jan in the mountains.

-- Zabel is not a strong time trialist, individual or team. Therefore, Zabel cannot help Jan in the TTT.

What is Zabel's assistance to JU then? NOTHING! But note that there is a real opportunity cost, in terms of who could have gone instead of Zabel.

Consider the likely Discovery team:

LA

The strongest climbers:
Ace (also good TTT)
Chechu (reasonable also TTT)
Triki

The TTTists, flats domestiques and/or low-level mountain domestiques:
Hincapie (improved climbing)
Ekimov
Noval (not bad climber)
Popovych (decent climber)
Salvodelli or Padrnos (Salvodelli is a decent climber)

Every body falls within at least one of two categories. A sprinter is useless as a helper.

PART II: Why Zabel is a LIABILITY.

-- Opportunity cost (described above) -- He is taking up a slot that a more helpful domestique could occupy.

-- Wasted energy -- Even if Zabel has no dedicated lead-out person, he wastes the team's energy in himself sprinting and in having at least some people help him win Green Jersey points. Contrast Discovery -- where nobody tries for stage wins except LA or when LA wants them to. Nobody wastes energy to try and get points for the Green Jersey. Consider not just cyclist energy, but the energy of the DS and other parties surrounding the team.

If T-Mobile members have to chase breakaways in order to keep the peloton together and permit Zabel to have a chance at a stage win, that's wasted energy in a flat stage in most instances.

-- Risk of injury -- Zabel could cause teammates to be injured in helping him. Sprinting is a relatively high-risk activity. If Zabel causes teammates to be injured or injures himself, that could hamper the overall GC efforts.

And it's not just Discovery that is knocking Zabel. ANDREAS KLODEN, one of Zabel's teammates, has stated indirectly that the T-Mobile team would be better off in the Tour without Zabel. Kloden and Zabel in fact have had discussions about this issue, as publicly reported on the T-Mobile site and German media channels.

It's not disparaging Zabel to say that he is better left off the T-M team if JU is to have max chances of winning the GC. It just speaks to whether a team's singular objective is to win the GC. Discovery is not "knocking" Max Van Heeswijk by excluding him from the Tour de France team; he just doesn't fit in well into the objectives of winning the GC. True, VH was on one of the Vuelta teams that USPS was seeking to use to assist Heras to victory (in a year when Heras won). Still, VH is more of a "worker" sprinter than Zabel would ever be, due to Zabel's stature.

I fail to see how competing for the green jersey could be called a sideshow. It takes real guts to ride the way the sprinters do and Zabel is the best at it. That is why he won 6 green jerseys and had he been included in the T-Mobile team this year, at the Tour de France, he would have been a contender again.

When I first started watching the Tour in 2000 I had no alleigance to any rider or team but, I quickly grew to really love Zabel because of his gutsy riding. I also quickly became an Ullrich fan for I could see that Lance was a "totally protected rider" who had a team that's sole purpose was to secure a win for their leader. I was not impressed with him for that reason but I saw Ullrich slogging along wit that huge gear that he uses, and he seemed to me to be doing it more on his own then Lance, with his team always surrounding him like bodyguards.

The green jersey competition is very exciting and it goes right down to the last day. Zabel is great at it and I really respect him

I agree for the most part. I dont think the Green and sprinting battle is just a sideshow, and doesnt have to be that way for a team with GC honours on their mind. Zabel has been a worthy winner in the past and this years Tour would of been his best shot in years to win it. He cant get close to beating McEwen or Boonen but there was only 4 or 5 pure sprint stages for them this year. (tough tough Tour for those guys) Thats not alot and the margin for error was small. If you missed a bunch kick then you were effectively out of the running. Next year i assume they will get 8 or 9 stages to show their stuff, this plays much more into the hands of Boonen and co. Also like this years Tour, the fastest/best most deserving sprinter does not always win the Green. Just the most regular. I think the Green is past Zabel but he does have some sorta shot at it. He would probably now need to go about it the way OGrady does. Thats getting up the road in a breakaway and getting a win or more points that way.

Zabel doesn't have any lead out men. And even if he did, it still wouldn't matter. Ullrich has plenty of men for the mountains, and plenty for the flats. Yes, it would be an issue if T-Mobile wasted energy chasing down attacks on flat stages in order to set Zabel up, but how often have we seen that in the last couple of years? And as for the whole wasted energy theory, I don't see anyone knocking CSC for sending Sastre out on breaks.

As for TT, Zabel is at least as good as Padrnos. So again, what's the detraction?

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Harry

Zabel is not as strong as Padrnos on TTT; give me a break.

-- From 2004 USPS official bio, 2003 Tour de France role: "It was more of the same at the Tour de France, with Padrnos playing a key role in the team time trial victory..."
http://www.uspsprocycling.com/teamfi...le_padrnos.htm

-- From 2005 DC official bio, 2004 Tour de France role: "At the Tour de France, Padrnos did an excellent job in the first week, riding alongside Lance Armstrong through the rainy first week and turning in a solid effort in the team's victory in the team time trial."

http://team.discovery.com/bios/padrnos.html

Second, it is not clear that Padrnos would be on the DC Tour de France squad, which I think will be the following:

LA
Ace
Chechu
Triki
Noval
Eki
Hincapie
Popo
Either Salvodelli or Padrnos (Padrnos only if Paolo is too tired after the Giro; this is hinted at by Paolo's indication in a cyclingnews interview that Padrnos will be helping Paolo in the Giro and that Paolo himself may ride the Tour de France if he is not too fatigued. That Paolo is preferable is also reinforced by the continuing cap on TTT gains, depending on placement position and not actual time gained. One of Padrnos' main reasons for being on the Tour de France team was for the TTT)

Separately, the comparison is not whether Zabel is as strong as any person on DC, but whether there is another person on TM who could better help JU on TTT. For example, Zabel may or may not be stronger in TTT than Manuel Beltran (although it must be said Beltran has improved in TTT since joining USPS/DC). But that doesn't say anything about whether Beltran is more valuable to LA than Zabel is to JU, obviously.

Finally on this point, Padrnos is a helper on the flats. Zabel is not doing the work as much of a flats domestique; he is trying for points for the green jersey and is not flats domestique in the way that Padrnos is. Also, Padrnos is better in the mountains than Zabel, although neither is good.
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That JU has some climbers to assist doesn't mean he couldn't use more; or take on a stronger flats domestique.

Sastre goes out on breaks because he and Basso are both trying to place high in GC. They are the CSC GC hopefuls. So Sastre tries to go out on breaks so he can gain time on his GC rivals, and also to try and win a stage. CSC knows that it doesn't have too much hope for overall GC win (even with Basso, unless his ITT improves considerably), and therefore has to "hedge" more with stage wins. Sastre IS the GC hopeful on CSC, together with Basso. So it's normal for the GC hopeful to try and gain time on his rivals. Especially when the person (like Sastre) is not a master at ITT (not that Sastre is poor in that discipline; he's just not particularly good relative to the key GC combatants).

Obviously, Sastre is typically permitted to go on those long breakways after he has lost a lot of time to LA and company. At that point, even if Sastre were trying to help Basso, it is sometimes useful on mountain stages to have a teammate as a matter of strategy, so that they could drop back to help as needed or so that the second person on the road for the team could join the leading teammate and both could gain more time on people from other team who are behind in the stage. So having Sastre in front has many potential benefits.
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When people help Zabel, though, that is wasted energy for the GC. Zabel will obviously never have a chance on GC. Zabel would be on the Tour de France team for one or more of the following reasons:

1) Team wants to "hedge" with Zabel trying for stage wins and the green jersey. The team is worried that JU is not going to win the GC, so has to try and hedge with other "wins".

2) Team feels Zabel has done a lot for the team, especially when JU was at Coast/Bianchi. Therefore, nobody (except Kloden) is willing to indicate that Zabel shouldn't be on the Tour de France team.

3) Zabel is a very popular cyclist in Germany. The team doesn't want to incur fan wrath by excluding Zabel.

And thank goodness Zabel doesn't have any leadout men in the Tour de France, or else JU would be even worse off, with two spots occupied.

It is evident that Zabel is a deadweight to JU in the Tour de France; a hurtful influence. For JU to have max chances of winning the GC, Zabel should be excluded from the Tour de France team.

Kloden is clearly in agreement that Zabel is hurtful to a GC win by somebody on the Tour de France team. Read for yourselves -- many people, including Kloden, see Zabel as a liability.

"In front of a substantial media crowd, one could clearly feel that Zabel was still annoyed at the ongoing discussions of his participation in the Tour de France when he was asked for a statement about it. His team-mate and Tour podium finisher Andreas Klöden had brought about the issue in public when he told journalists at the end of last year that "in order to win the Tour de France, you need one captain and eight helpers," indirectly questioning Zabel's participation. Both Zabel and Klöden are saying they had a reconciling conversation about it, but the attending media representatives were eager to know more. "It's OK to have different opinions and to think about different strategies," Zabel acknowledged. When asked if one of the reasons should he be excluded would be his (unconfirmed) poor team time trial qualities, he said: "At the moment, there are 15 riders on the roster for the Tour, and the management will pick nine of them in June. All I can say is that I tried to help the team as much as I could on the stages [counting for general classification], which is why this questioning isn't very pleasant. Anyhow, I think it's time to put an end to this topic, and further asking about it will only keep it alive," he explained, trying to get out of the line of fire."

http://www.cyclingnews.com/riders/20...d=erik_zabel05

It must be remembered that saying Zabel should be excluded from the Tour de France in order to maximize JU's chances is not saying Zabel isn't a good sprinter or a good cyclist. Zabel obviously works very hard, and his achievements are very significant. It's just that he shouldn't be on the TM Tour de France team.

Subject to rider form, I would think the best Tour de France team for TM would be:

JU
Kloden
Vino
Sevilla
Lara
Guerini
[Adag]
[Kessler]
[somebody other than Zabel]

Cyclingnews has a piece on Zabel that contains the following:

"Nor will the discussions about his participation at the Tour de France this year. Tour runner-up Andreas Klöden has been saying that only a team composed of one leader and eight helpers could be victorious at the overall classification at the Grande Boucle. Asked if he thought Klöden was right, Zabel diplomatically countered, "I'd put it this way: Only the individually strongest rider wins the Tour de France." T-Mobile insiders have also been talking about the time-trialling skills of 'Ete' Zabel, saying that his performances were slowing down the team in one of the important events towards Tour de France victory: the team time trial. "I don't think it's funny when I get the blame for the team's loss of 15 seconds at the team time trial," he continued. "I am not the best time triallist, but go beyond my pain threshold on that day, to be able to look into the eyes of my teammates in the evening." Zabel is currently listed in the provisional team selection for the Tour de France, which includes 15 riders. His participation in the race will probably not be known until only a few weeks before the event, when the team management decides on it"

This provisional list of 15 riders shows the folly of T-M. That's about all the eligible riders (skills wise) for the Tour de France. Givfe me a break.

Also, I don't know what 15 seconds Zabel is referring to, but I note the actual times of the top teams in last year's TTT and the fact that, if T-Mobile had gone just 13 seconds faster, they would have lost 20 seconds to LA instead of 40 seconds.

1 US Postal presented by Berry Floor 1.12.03
2 Phonak Hearing Systems 1.07
3 Illes Balears-Banesto Santander 1.15
4 T-Mobile Team 1.19

The cap on time loss based on positional placement makes the selection of team members important.

The problem on TM is more than Zabel. Their choice of Ivanov over Evans was a big mistake. Ivanov, a substitute, was dropped in the TTT. As was Guerini.

Another problem with the TM team composition (apart from Zabel's being on it) is that the TM climbers last year were not too good TTTs. That remains the case relative to DC, although Sevilla is quite a good TTT. The real strength of DC's climbers is that they are decent TTTs as well. Ace is an excellent TTT and ITT; Rubiera has reasonable TTTs. Even Beltran is improving, although the worse of the bunch. Ironically, Heras, the worse TTTist of the climbers on former USPS, has left. With the addition of Popo and Salvodelli, both pretty good climbers (if not at the Rubiera/Ace level), the DC TTT skills will not be worse than last year.

I appreciate good ITTs may not be good TTTs. However, on DC, good ITT climbers become good TTT members.

Here are the flat ITT results of key climbing-only domestiques on USPS last year, compared with Guerini and Sevilla. Ace is an excellent ITT and TTT, and even Rubiera is no slouch. Beltran is somewhat weaker.

2004 Stage 19 (when they didn't have to save energy for work for LA anymore)

9 Jose Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor +3.40
10 Jose Azevedo (Por) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 3.49
49 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 7.26
56 Erik Zabel (Ger) T-Mobile Team 7.52
60 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) T-Mobile Team 7.59
80 Oscar Sevilla (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 9.25

2003 Stage 12
17 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 5.32
27 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 6.15
37 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 7.03
88 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) Team Telekom 9.01
150 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Telekom 11.10
Sevilla -- No results

2003 Stage 19

24 José Luis Rubiera (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 2.20
67 Manuel Beltran (Spa) US Postal-Berry Floor 3.41
80 Giuseppe Guerini (Ita) Team Telekom 4.12
89 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Telekom 4.29
115 José Azevedo (Por) ONCE-Eroski 5.11 (after fall of Beloki)
Sevilla -- no results

The above results are likely not indicative of how Zabel might TTT, because Zabel wouldn't be making much effort in ITTs so that he can save punch for the sprints. Still, Zabel is not too good a TTTist, I would imagine.

Knock knock:


Whoooz zeea?


Za bell!


Za bell who?


Is a bell necesary on a team?