Australia: Likely Team and Medal Prospects in Beijing

Originally Posted by thunder

Road team

Rogers
Evans
Davis
O'Grady
Cooke
Gerrans
Lloyd

5 spots for the rr, of which, they have to field tt spots. I think we have 2 spots, because NZ are not fielding a tter and NZ won the Oceania Champs, assume McCauley or Odlin won that.

If Evans rides the tt, he will be equal favourite with Canc. Rogers might be good for top 5. If Australia are not granted the tt spot, Evans has to ride. Misplaced loyalty might see Rogers get the ride tho.

In the rr the competition for spots will be tough. I think Allan Davis has to go, because he rides circuits almost as good as Freire, and he can finish off a sprint after 260kms better than any other Australian.

I would take Evans, Ogrady, Davis, Rogers and probably Cooke. It is a toss up between Gerrans and Cooke for the last spot, if the Hamburg Vattenfal Cyclassics is before the Tour, that might be a good selection race for Lloyd, Cooke and Gerrans for the last spot. I dont think Barloworld will ride it though, which will hurt Cooke's chances.

I would be more in favour of taking riders who can take their own chances, and to potentially help out a leader in the final stages of the race, and not to work earlier. I would not be taking Gerrans and Lloyd to do domestique work in the first 150 kms. Let the Italians and the Spaniards do the heavy lifting.

I think the team will be Evans Rogers Ogrady Gerrans and Lloyd.

I would take Evans, Rogers, Cooke, Ogradys and Davis.

Decent chance for medal in the rr.



Track got spots in individual pursuit, team pursuit, points, keirin, team sprint, match sprint.

I think the only chances for a medal are the team pursuit, and the points race. I dont think the sprint guys can bring home a medal, the sprint field is just so deep at the moment.

I dont know who is in the team, Bayley for match sprint and keirin, and maybe the team sprint, Kelly for the keirin and team sprint maybe, French perhaps for all three events he is the fastest rider in the leadoff position in the team sprint, and Dan Ellis perhaps in the team sprint.

Dont think they will win anything.

Track endurance, I think Cam Meyer is the best shot at gold. He is a good chance for a medal. In the team pursuit, I think they should medal, I dont think they will win gold, GB should win, but dont right off the Danes and the New Zealanders. Who knows what the guys will be doing in terms of medical programs.

Mcgee cant win the ip. And Roberts will not be in the top 10.

I am not sure how many spots there are for the team. I would like to see the team include Jack Bobridge and Leigh Howard at the expense of Luke Roberts, in the teams pursuit. Bobridge was the strongest teams pursuiter at the Manchester worlds Jono said, I assume they had the benefit of power outputs and lap tmes from Mckenzie. Bobridge is not a huge rider, only 5'10" and about 155lbs, so he is not great wind break for slipstream. Probably bigger than Jamieson however.

The team was without Lancaster who was injured for the Manchester worlds. That guy is the equivalent to GB's Ed Clancy, the strong guy of the Aus team pursuit. Brownie is also a great rider in the pick-up leadoff posi. So still some improvement for the teams pursuiters.


Track

Mcgee
Lancaster
Roberts
Brown
Jamieson
Meyer
Bobridge
(Howard)

Bayley
Kelly
Ellis
French



And there's no madison spot, as they did not qualify a team.


Reasons why did not qualify a madison spot:

Increased competition at the world cups which are now the qualifiers. The best madison riders are in Europe on Protour teams, and have to ride the road calendar which means they need to rest in October/November then start the base, instead of coming into form for the track calendar. And no real continuation of madison pairings. There are about a dozen riders who have been rotated through madison team pairings. And classic1 will say the madison skills of the current crop of young guys suck, their changes suck, and assume the entire skill set is about as sloppy as that. At world cup and pro 6-day level, they cannot ride with that lack of competency. (So classic bangs my ears off about)

Originally Posted by classic1

The track riders can potentially medal in every event, but like thunder said, its unlikely.

I reckon TP will be a silver, maybe McGee silver or bronze in the IP, probably a medal in the Keiran (lottery, Hoy is the top favourite for GB) and team sprint (bronze).

Would not be surprised if they shanghai O'Grady or Brown into the points race. Either are capable of winning it in top form. I reckon Meyer is class but the Olympics is a huge step up from world cups and even the worlds.

As for the sheilas [women], Meares will likely medal in the sprint but wont win Gold (Pendelton too good IMO), and that Mactier is capable of a win in the pursuit if she farkin starts listening to the coaches and doesn't go out as stupidly fast as she normally does.

Originally Posted by Crankyfeet

I asked thunder in the FID if he could possibly give a rundown of Australia's medal hopes in the Olympics and he PM'd me a typically informative/in-depth thunder reply. He also recommended I forward it to classic1 for comments as classic has ridden at domestic pro level in Australia and knows the Aussie track scene.

Here were the responses:




And classic added:

Originally Posted by thunder

the key to getting Graeme de Bruijn to ride, is stem selection. If you get the right stem, you can balance a hamburger on it, and you can get Brown to do anything. Those Cinelli bulls horn stem-bar combos are perfect.

Originally Posted by Crankyfeet

He also recommended I forward it to classic1 for comments as classic has ridden at domestic pro level in Australia and knows the Aussie track scene.

Originally Posted by classic1

As for the sheilas [women], Meers will likely medal in the sprint but wont win Gold (Pendelton too good IMO), and that Mactier is capable of a win in the pursuit if she farkin starts listening to the coaches and doesn't go out as stupidly fast as she normally does.

Originally Posted by classic1

Ha ha. What a dumbarse. Can't even spell 'Meares' properly.

Originally Posted by classic1

Pffftttt

On a sporting level my cycling career was about the equivalent of playing reserve grade AFL footy for the Nar Nar Goon Mudguppies in the Bumfark and District football league. Except they pay more at Nar Nar Goon than for riding a bike.

Originally Posted by Crankyfeet

Yes you can... that was a typo of mine when I translated it across... there.... fixed it.

Originally Posted by classic1

Good thing Sergei Sukhoruchenkov or Djamolidine Abdoujaparov aren't riding this year.

Harder to spell Sergei Sukhoruchenkov in Russian.though. Сергей Сухорученков. Do Russkies write in Martian or something?

Originally Posted by Crankyfeet

So will we win more medals than NZ? I'm aware from the WC that Britain are obviously going to dominate the medal table.

What's happened to Bayley that he has receded from being the world's best sprinter four years ago when he won gold in Athens?

Originally Posted by classic1

Ulmer retired you idjut.