2008 Tour De France Stage 15 - Sunday, July 20: Embrun - Prato Nevoso, 183km

Stage 15.

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Ricco if there isnt a long breakaway? I think he will be targetting this stage, trying to stay with the main contenders on the one after the rest day and then trying to go again on alpe d'huez.

Another uphill finish. Stage profile:



I await Grater's prediction on which Columbia rider will be in a break, and which one will win the stage - probably Kirchen?

That is not a very steep final climb. It looks like it's about 7%.

I pick a rejuventated Valverde. Maybe Cunego goes for it.

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"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

A long way after the first climb to make an attack stick. I think we could see CSC lift the place on the first climb to try and blow as many Lotto riders away as possible. Maybe then try and push the pace after that with Sastre attacking on the climb followed by Frank Schleck? They may try and follow stage 10's example by putting Cancellara or O'Grady in an early break.

There is over 100 km between the cresting of Agnel and the start of the final climb. They may sure try to put as much pressure as possible on the weaker teams during the ascent of Agnel, but unless some GC rider pops, I'm not sure that they can keep up the tempo all the way to the start of the final climb. Tourmalet-Hautacam was much shorter, and so they could afford to blow up Cancellara and Voigt by maintaining a high speed.

I just hope whoever has received fresh blood is not stupid enough to pull off a Vino act. That would sure set off the alarm bells.

Yes, it is a long way although quite a few of those k's are downhill. I think they will keep the pace fairly high - some domestiques may make it back but they will have to work hard. As to the GC threats to them i think the rest of the first seven and perhaps eight are the ones they will be keeping a close eye on although they will want to take advantage of any easy chances to make time on the others. Then again they could just sit up and look to put in a big effort on one or more of the other stages. I think they will have some sort of plan as they need to make quite a few minutes on evans, menchov and vandevelde. One of their big advantages is having a stronger team and they will be lookign to make use of this IMO.

My bet is that Cunego and Valverde will gain 20-40 secs on the others by attacking on the final climb.

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It never gets easier, you just go faster
Oton ATK Sandisk Mp3-soittimet ja Koss kuulokkeet

They would be much better off by using their energy on stages 16 or 17. For example there's a 10K flat part before Alpe d'Huez and two mountains before that so there they could really damage Evans. Cadel is in a pretty tough spot where he can't be completely sure which one (Schleck or Sastre) to follow so CSC should take advantage of that.

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It never gets easier, you just go faster
Oton ATK Sandisk Mp3-soittimet ja Koss kuulokkeet

Actually i think for at least This stage its easy, follow Schleck. If Sastre puts in a really good attack, Menchov/VandeVelde will start to chase it down because we are a point where these guys are thinking of their podium places. Then when those 2 chase, just follow their wheels.

I wonder if some people will be afraid to win a stage now.

They only announced the new test after the rest day.

Cavendish
Ciolek
Kirchen.

Grater told me to say that.

A good example of why you shouldn't do your analysis on a stage TOO far ahead in the current climate.

I agree with Bro Deal: Cunego or Valverde.

And my dark horse pick: Moncoutie