2009 Giro : stage 12 : Thurs 21 May : Sestri Levante - Riomaggiore (ITT) 60.6kms

Stage 12 : ITT.

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

60.6 kilometers, over 1200 meters of climbing. This stage is just, wow. It's going to take a good chunk over an hour and a half to complete this course. Two climbs, two very techinical descents. Only about 18 kilometers of flat terrain, the rest is up or down.

If someone has a bad day, they're screwed. The lighter climbers will loose time because the climbs aren't steep enough for them and the flats and the downhills will hurt. The heavier guys will be destroyed by the climbs. So a midweight climber with good descending and general TTing skills for the win I think.

I thought Basso would be a good pick for this. Not the lightest climber so he has the power to put on the hurt on these flatter climbs, he's a good TTist. However he's a crap descender so the roughly ten miles of downhill are going to hurt his chances. Menchov could be a good shout, maybe Pellizotti. Still, my odds on favourite for this is LL. Good TTist, good climber, good descender. All the skills he needs to put a couple of minutes into his nearest rival should he be on form.

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"Hope is the first step on the road to dissapointment."

This is the sort of time trial where you don't have to be a solid time trialist to profit. If you have the climbing legs then you will win. Levi is taken back to the pack on a TT like this IMO. If it was more flatter, Levi would **** it in.

Don't rule out guys like Menchov.

Rogers is climbing well and can time trial.

There is also one other rider who can climb well at the moment and can time tiral and that's Lovkvist.

Leipheimer will more than likely win but I wouldn't count out Columbia's main two filling up the podium considering how much Columbia's on a roll at the moment.

What about Wiggins?? He's used to ITT, and looked impressive on first climbs last week. Seems to be in very good shape too.

It's about 50km too long for Wiggins

I've actually driven over the first half of the course, over the Passo del Bracco into Levanto. The bottom of the descent is Poggio like. It will be absolute carnage if it rains.

As for the course, I'd expect the riders to leave the TT bikes in the back of the truck.

From what I've read most people will be doing it on road bikes with TT bars on. Still have TT helmets and the other go faster clothing items but it's too hilly and too technical for a disk or even a tri-spoke.

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"Hope is the first step on the road to dissapointment."

So you're saying the winner will be an ITT specialist despite of the course ???

There isn't much to lose from having a disc on, they don't affect the handling of a bike much and don't add much weight. I'd definitely use a standard road race front wheel though - that's where all the handling comes in. I rode a relatively similar TT a few weeks ago, albeit about 2/3 of the distance but still lots of ups and downs with technical descents. After some thought and some test runs I went with the lo-pro but with a shallow front wheel. I was 5th and most of the rest of the top 10 went with a similar set-up. In my view almost all of the difficulty handling a lo-pro comes from the deep-section front.

My guess is that a few of the climbers/non-TTists may go for broke by leaving out the aerodynamic kit, but Levi/Canc/Wiggs will bring their fast gear but just tone it down a little, change the front wheel maybe raise the bars a bit.

Leipheimer
Basso
Menchov
Rogers
Bruseghin
Horner
Di Luca

I'm almost sure Leipheimer will take this one. For the next three on the list I'm not sure about positions, but pretty much sure they'll take 2 - 4. Next three should share 5-7, order could be different. Horner is there 'cause of current form and miraculous TT progress that Astana does to their riders (and progress in general). Speaking of Astana, Popovych and Armstrong could also do well.
I just realized Rogers often disappoints in GT TTs.

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The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

Leipheimer
Bruseghin
Basso
Lökvist
Rodriguez
Rogers
Menchov
Armstrong

Those placings are just a guess but I'd be pretty sure Leipheimer will hammer on the ITT. If he can get a good lead he can even give up some time to the mountain guys before the final ITT. Armstrong is a mystery but I'd say he will give his everything for a good placing. GC candidates will probably be the only riders who are allowed to give their all, except for Armstrong. And then I can't decide who's the main man for Columbia: Lökvist or Rogers?

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Oton ATK Sandisk Mp3-soittimet ja Koss kuulokkeet

Ah, yes...
How could I forget Lökvist.

__________________
"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

lance to win, cunego to do a good ride also.

Leipheimer to take it from Menchov and probably Rogers. Lovkvist/Pinotti/Armstrong not far behind.

I see we achieved consensus on who'll take it. We mostly agree about who will be LL's main rivals too.
The conclusion is - very predictable TT.
What I want to know is what do you think how much time Di Luca will lose on LL and Menchov. That is real question for tomorrow.
I say 1:20 on Leipheimer and little less than a minute on Menchov.

__________________
"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "