2009 Giro : stage 16 : Monday, May 25 :Pergola - Monte Petrano 237 kms

stage 16

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

This is one very very tough stage - coming as it does so far in to the Giro.

Monte Nerone and Monte Catria look to be particularly tough climbs.

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Looks like a hot one too. temps over 30C in the valleys. I think they will start the racing early, with Liquigas looking to make it a really tough day.

Leipheimer will get dropped and will be totally out of it by the end of this stage...

Sastre will try a big move... he's been riding incredibly well and keeping his cards close to his chest but will let it all hang out on this stage.

predictions... i'm going with the killer to take back the jersey. not sure what Sastre has been hiding under the hood though.. don't think he has 3mins worth of it though.

I'm picking Pellizotti.
There was a bit of hard work done by some of the guys yesterday and I think he probably had the easiest ride since Basso was up the road so all he had to do was mark and sit in on the others and move when they did.

I to reckon Leipheimer will get done today and lose time, he can't match the others on the climbs when they wind up the pace. He'll have no team mates to help out by then either.
Sastre is probably playing a similar tactic to last years Tour de France although I don't think he can make up his time loss and enough to cover the final TT in on mountain stage, I think he'll need to do it over 2 stages.
I think he will have to make a move to cut some time if he has anything up his sleeve.

Diluca and Menchov will remain the front two, Levi I also think may struggle, Rogers will drop off also, But Sastre and Basso may be strong and out to gain time.

Liquigas will send Pellizotti on the attack on the penultimate mountain and before that they probably try to get a guy in the breakaway. I think yesterday was Basso's turn and today is Pellizotti's.
Menchov will follow Di Luca and Leipheimer so I don't think he'd go after Basso, Pellizotti or Sastre.
Leipheimer will follow the wheels of Menchov and/or Basso and hope they will fade on the final climb. His time difference to Menchov should be +/- 30 secs.
Finally I'll take a wild bet and say that Di Luca will be dropped on the last climb. If either Basso/Pellizotti/Sastre are up the road he might crack under the pressure of the chase group. I don't think he can climb (and we saw that in the TT) as well as Menchov and I might even say that he'll get dropped before Leipheimer.

My bet:
1. Pellizotti/Basso
2. Menchov +2.00
3. Sastre +2.00
4. Leipheimer +2.20
5. Basso/Pellizotti +3.00
6. Di Luca +3.00
Armstrong, Rogers, etc. +5.00

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It never gets easier, you just go faster
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The stage will have started already wont it???? Where would be the best place to get updates.....live feeds wont start till 2/3 of the way through

sastre will go hell for leather at the bottom of the final climb, win the stage and take pink

I just read something about a brakre away.
dion, popo, belotti, sprick, jeannersson, lopen garcia, gomez gomez, danielson, wiggins, cunego, carlstrom, bossisio, cataldo, ardila, tjalingi, scarponi, de bonis, brutt, voigt, fernandez

watch it online.
http://www.myp2p.eu/competition.php?...ipline=cycling
select the day, then there is a number of different options for your viewing pleasure, select the feed of choice.
It's in Italian so turn the sound down and go to EuroSport and select live audio.
(although with the French open on at the moment the audio starts a bit later throught the stage)

Alternatively go to http://www.cyclingfans.com/ they list a number off different live feeds.

Thanx for that

Astana to set a fierce pace on the penultimate climb and then the final climb to stop people attacking Levi who isn't that great at accelerating. The pretenders to the throne will drop away one by one leaving a small group, time gaps between these guys won't be that great. Menchov to finish first out of the top people, then LL, then Di Luca and Pellizotti.

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"Hope is the first step on the road to dissapointment."

If it pans out that way, Popovych is in a break 6 minutes up the road at the moment which could benefit Astana later in the race....or could put him right in contention

There's a differnce between a ty effort and a rr effort Leiphrimer has been dangling off the back and getting dropped the last couple of days but there will be nowhere to hide today and without Horner all of his team mates have gotten dropped out of lead group so no help there.
Roger's climbing is also suspect.. he'll like go by the wayside as well.