Green Jersey - Tour de France.

Who do you think will take the Green Jersey in this years Tour.

You all know I'm a huge Cavendish fan and I don't think he will unfortunately. He may win about 4 - 6 stages hopefully but will struggle to win the Green Jersey, even if he gets to Paris which he wants to. He even said that he isn't going for the Green Jersey as he is still too young to get it. He also said that about MSR!

Anyway, a lot of you would think guys like Hushovd or Bennati might take it. There is one guy who I know I'm not forgetting. Goes by the name of Heinrich Haussler. He is the most consistent rider in the peloton. He may only win one stage, but you can bet your bottom dollar that he will come second and third in most of the flat stages. And he can climb a bit. There's your consistency. Even Cav mentioned last year it's all about consistency. The most consistent sprinter in the peloton at the moment is Haussler. How many seconds will he get in this years Tour? Probably more than what Cavendish wins.

Although the only problem with this assessment is he has Hushovd as a team-mate. But Hushovd should be aware that Haussler is the best chance to take the Green Jersey. This guy could finish top 3 on all sprint finishes he's that good

Nice topic. The Green jersey battle isn't exactly the cup of tea most of the Tour de France fans would drink first, but I see - you would. And I have to admit it's very interesting question.
I think, besides consistency, every Green jersey contender has to have experience and mental strength which experience brings. Mountainous part of the race is usually huge suffering for the most of Green jersey contenders so they have to learn how to deal with it. Not just to finish these stages, but to be ready to be at the back of the group, often fighting with time limits. For someone who took several stages and was in contention for several more in past days, this role isn't the most pleasant one. Also, this suffering brings injuries and danger of more injuries due to lack of concentration while chasing the time ramp.
So, my conclusion is: rider who best knows his own body and knows what to expect from it during three weeks race and has experience of finishing GT - will have best chances. Freire is one of them, not mentioned from you.

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"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
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Freire is a major chance. Forgot him! Won it last year.

Haussler completed the Tour de France last year. But only once.

Cavendish never has completed one!

Hushovd, Freire and Bennati would be the 3 favourites. Although Haussler is sprinting the best he ever has.

This may be heresy but I think that it is more difficult to win the Green jersey than it is to win any other Tour de France jersey.
The eventual winner has to be the most consistently placed rider throughout the entire race - and I think that is the sign of a really strong rider.

Anyhow, getting on with my selection :
Freire's got to be a strong contender to rgain the jersey.
Cavendish has said that he intends to complete this years Tour de France : it will be inteesting to see how he fares but I think he might be just a bit inexperienced to win the Points jersey.
Hushovd will be a contender too.
Di Luca? If he's going for Yellow, perhaps not a contender for Green

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.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Since when has he been riding the tour?

Di Luca will not be there. LPR wasn't invited, hence the rumored talks between Petacchi and Silence-Lotto so that Ale-Jet could ride. Ale would've been a good bet for Green though

I've just looked at the Tour route and it looks like this year Green jersey may take someone who's more all-arounder than sprinter. Mountains will come very quickly, before them there are more breakaway stages than sprint stages and transition from Pyrenees to Alps is more rolling than flat. Having said that, I have no idea who could be that all-arounder.
Polka-dot jersey competition will also be very interesting. Organizers have categorized lots of climbs which they could left non-categorized. Also, there are some stages with massive climbs far from the finish, so breakaways for the points will be certain. And not breakaways with just couple of riders, some bigger groups, with more contenders fighting like they're riding for overall.
Maybe just wishful thinking.

__________________
"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

What about Thor Hushovd? Is he actually going to the Tour? The older that guy gets, the easier he climbs. He could benefit of 3rd/4th places on the flat, and some nice placings in hilly stages.

Will mountain stages actually count for green jersey attribution?

boonen or cav

There are some Green jersey points available in mountain stages, but not lots of them and probably won't be taken by sprinters.The point with mountain stages is that they come very quickly, so there's no opportunity for sprinters to build huge stock of Green jersey points like before. They'll have to survive mountains and hope they can come out of them fresh enough to collect (or make up what they've missed) some points in transitional stages (which also aren't typically sprinters').
You can look at the map (or time schedule) by yourself and see places marked with green (and "s" in it), which indicates intermediate sprints, then you can try to find how points are distributed in different stages and intermediate sprints.

__________________
"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

Here it is. Available points during the race.

Before Pyrenees maximum available points - 227 (including ITT), 212 (without ITT points)
In the Pyrenees - 114
After Pyrenees - 255
In the Alps - 96
After the Alps - 94, including ITT - 109.

And just to notice, stages after Pyrenees look better suited for sprinters.

__________________
"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

Cav's chances for the Green jersey hinge after the Pyrenees. How well will his body recover after heavy climbs?