2009 TDF : Stage 4 : Tuesday 7 July : Montpellier > Montpellier : 39kms

Ttt.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

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__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

I usually find TTTs pretty dull but I spent some time in Montpelier and really look forward to seeing the place again.

Too short for the good teams too long for the lesser ones.

I look forward to this stage and I believe it will set the stage for which team or teams are hungry and ready to win it all.

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Dope,when training and talent just aren't enough.

I'll be looking very carefully how pulls are going in Astana.
Garmin, Columbia, Astana, Saxo for high placing. Rabo and Lotto to loose some more time.

__________________
"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

yeah, could be a make it or break it stage for evans and menchov

Columbia all the way.

A little run down on the TTT.

The TTT is a different discipline. No matter how many good TT guys you have in your team, it means jack. Teams need to train specificially long and hard for the TTT. Garmin and Columbia specialise in the discipline. Garmin are desperate for a result. Garmin want revenge on Columbia.

After yesterday I don't know if Columbia will be strong enough. They would have used up a lot of energy. HOWEVER, they got help and the chasers had to do a lot of work to.

Columbia also have won the two TTT's this year. That tells you something. If you don't have the team cohesion (Astana clearly don't), you won't win a TTT.

The Big 3

Garmin

Bradley Wiggins
Christian Vandevelde
Ryder Hesjedal
David Zabriskie
David Millar
Danny Pate
Tyler Farrar
Julian Dean
Martijn Maaskant

Columbia

Tony Martin
Bert Grabsch
George Hincapie
Michael Rogers
Kim Kirchen
Maxime Monfort
Bernhard Eisel
Mark Renshaw
Mark Cavendish

Astana

Alberto Contador
Levi Leipheimer
Andreas Kloden
Lance Armstrong
Sergio Paulinho
Yaroslav Popovych
Gregory Rast
Haimar Zubeldia
Dmitriy Muravyev

Okay!

Astana do look like they will be hard to beat, but have they practiced? Levi and Lance were in the states and the rest of the team were in Europe and this team doesn't work well together. To win a TTT, you need to be unified. Work together. Have that team cohesion. Astana don't have that.

Columbia showed the right move yesterday by dropping Grabsch back to rest him for today. Columbia showed yesterday they have the team cohesion. Providing Cav sticks with them, he can help them in short bursts. Yesterday Columbia showed that they have the motor that no other team has. They are going to be hard to beat. Columbia have practiced this discipline a lot and have already won both TTT's this year.

Garmin have also practiced this discipline a lot and they do have the firepower as Columbia. They might be looking for revenge. The only thing not on Columbia's side is what happened yesterday. They worked hard and may be spent.

I don't believe it. Columbia are the strongest team in the world at the moment in regards to stage wins and flat stages. This course is technical. Too much for the Astana men.

Tony Martin was one rider that wasn't doing much work in the lead pack after the gap formed I think you will find.

Tony Martin could be in yellow after today. Columbia know they are on the verge of carrying yellow again. To carry green and yellow is what they want. The sponsors will be laughing. You don't know how bad they do want yellow.

After today, if they win this time trial and get enough time to put Martin in yellow, they will carry.

Yellow Jersey
Green Jersey
White Jersey

Perhaps Polka Dot they will look at on stage 5 too. (they will aim for Polka dot tomorrow. They will make sure a break doesn't get away until after the first climb where Martin can take maximum points to claim it.

Columbia will be highly motivated today. They are on the verge of repeating last year. Motivation is the key here. If they don't win the stage, they will want to put Martin in yellow so they will stay close to Astana, if not beat them and they will definately do saxo bank by more than 33 seconds and they will.

Yes, Columbia are here for stage wins, BUT, they can repeat Kirchen last year with Martin. I know I would prefer to have those 3 jersey's than Green and White. And they can still set Cavendish up for a sprint tomorrow anyway if they so wish.

Grater do I sense a little hard on for Columbia...LOL!!! I* Agree Columbia and Garmin will be the two to beat however, I think Astana will put in a good show dispite the percieved tension in the team, saxo wont be to bad, but yeah I think this is realy going to hirt evans chances........menchov already hirt his in the 1st stage

Might I also say that the corners are technical and Cav/Renshaw/Eisel will come into play. They need the quick bursts around the corners.

I would normally have picked Columbia for the win but after the work load yesterday I think that may have taken the top end edge away.
I agree with the Astana cohesion (or lack thereof) but just have a feeling they or part of them will work very hard to get the time need to put Armstrong into Yellow. I think he wants the Yellow Jersey ad will do what ever it takes (it will also help bolster the 'I'm the leader' scenario, at least to him but not Bertie :P ).
Saxo have always been pretty solid in the TTT's I'm expecting they'll be competative, keeping Cancellara in Yellow is important to them.
Garmin as Gratar has already summerised are a very competative in the TTT's I think they will have targeted this stage for a win. I kind of think Silence-Lotto may perform a little better than they normally get credit for, I think they'll work really hard.

I'm going to say :-
1. Astana
2. Saxo Bank
3. Garmin
4. Columbia
5. Silence-Lotto
(I'd rather the order the other way around though )

Cancellara to hold onto Yellow by around 10-15secs from Armstrong then Contador & Martin.
That's my guesstimate :P


Should be good and looking forward to watching it.

Columbia are a very strong TTT squad.

No mention of Saxo though?
I think they're contenders also.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it" - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Little?? He has been gushing about Columbia for a long time now; last year, it got to slightly absurd levels.

Yeah I know he's still waiting for Ullrich to come out of retirement