2009 TDF stage 17 - Bourg-Saint-Maurice Le Grand-Bornand 169.5 km - Page 3

Had AC not attacked I would agree with you. Now it will be much for difficult for LA and AK. I predict:

1. AC
2. AS
3. LA

basically it went something like this... Astana making fast tempo on Col de Romme to stop attacks.. Sastre attacks.. couple times marked by Schlecks, Contador and Kloden... Wiggins goes but gets dropped out of that group, Armstrong dropped too... Wiggins pulls and pulls and pulls loosing ground all the while.. Vande Velda makes it up and helps out.. Schlecks and Contador & Kloden still pulling away all the time... Contador has a chat with Klodie (looks like he nods and says he's good to go) attacks near the top of the Col de la Columbier.. Kloden gets dropped?? Contador sits up.. doesn't take another pull for the whole race (Schlecks look pretty upset about that, but why would he?) Armstrong attacks the 2nd group just before the top of the Col de la Columbier... gets away from the others... Nibali finds a time machine some where on the way down and makes it back to Armstrong.. they catch Kloden near the end... they drop Klodi... Frank takes the honors, Contador 2nd, Andy third... Nibali over Armstrong (didn't contest really)..

One minute to 1:30 maybe.

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Dope,when training and talent just aren't enough.

LA put :20 on AS in Monaco
:56 on FS.

I think it will be a 4 way fight for 3rd between LA, AK, FS, and BW. Ventoux will decide it.

Yeah but there's an ITT and then there's Ventoux. Whatever is made up in the TT could be lost on the slopes of the Ventoux. In fact the Ventoux could cost the likes of Bradley Wiggins and LA as much as the Col De La Colombiere today. This could be especially the case as the likes of LA has to put his all into tkaing time out of Andy Schleck and then hold him on the Ventoux. I still think that third for LA is a possible. Interestingly in many ways this race nullifies the advantages the ITT gives. I guess getting the balance right between climbers and TTspecialists is really difficult. Winners should be able ot come from both disciplines.

I'll take a wild stab and say LA might make up the time gap on Andy Schleck but lose it again on the Ventoux.

My podium forecast is
Conti
A.Schleck
LA

anybody else care to take a wild guess?

Besides great ride by Schlecks I have to notice very bad move by Contador... He only helped Schlecks to get rid of Kloden and gain substantial time gaps before TT. Maybe that's exactly what he wanted, although he says Kloden approved the attack.

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"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

I dont think LA can make up enough time in the TT to be close enough to AS. He is 1:30 back on AS and :30 back on FS. Even if he does make up most of that 1 1/2 minutes, he wont stay with AS on Ventoux. If he makes up 1 min(which he did on first TT) on FS, he will have maybe 30 seconds on FS going into Ventoux. He has proven he can climb with FS, AK, and BW. He cant stay with AS or AC.

I see him marking FS on Ventoux.

Interestingly, AC can now help both LA and AK on Ventoux. He wont have to attack cause he will already have +3 minutes on AS. He can just stay in the group and suport them. Of course Saxo will have their strategy with the 2 Schlecks.
I'm thinking LA and FS are going to fight for 3rd. I think LA has ridden very conservatively on the climbs. This is because of his ability to accelerate on the last half of the climbs. Just my opinion and prediction. Totally inductive.

harumph sounds like cobblers to me. He looked desparate when Klod didn't follow. I think he's a little bit of a hot head and is desperate to prove he's the new LA.

He needs to calm down a bit as he's in the lead

It's may be tough for the Schleks to hold off Wiggins and Kloden in the TT, but even if they lose a two or three minutes, Ventoux will sort it all out for them.

With regards to Contador's attack 3km from the top of the last climb, Johan Bruyneel said: "I had advised Alberto not to go because he didn’t need to go. He didn’t need to go because it was clear that the Schlecks would go full gas to the finish. I told him, ‘You don’t have to attack to win the Tour de France today’. It’s a bit of a pity that Andreas couldn’t hold on because we could have been first, second and third on GC but now we are first, fourth and fifth."

He then went on to say:
"But in the end you can’t want it all. Our purpose is to win the Tour and we got a big step forward today. If we want everything we can end up with nothing and that’s not what we want. Second and third are not a goal. If it happens that’s ok but we don’t go after it. Winning the Tour is the goal."

I dont know what is going to happen next year with AC, where he will be, but he is going to have a hard time without the support he has now. He will do well, but how well. He has a lot to learn.

Lance has said about 3 or 4 times that he is a better and in better shape in this years tour than he was for like 3-4 of his tour wins. Now all of a sudden when Contador has blown by him he says he cant hang with a the young guys. This guy is full of it.This pretty much is the the best Lance we see. Alberto Conatdor is the best climber ever.Johan Brunel the manager of team Astana and who was there for all of Lance's wins even says that Contador is the best climber he has ever seen. So all this crap about Lance can catch him and he was staying back on purpose is a bunch of bs.Lance is not climbing with Ulrich who was a power climber and fit Lance to a tee. Contador accelerates at speeds Lance would never had dealt with. Contador is not a bad tt either. He is the tt champion of Spain and he did beat Lance in the first tt. I expect Lance to cut A LITLLE into Contadors lead tomorrow but dont get me wrong here I dont see Lance wheter at 37 or 30 a better climber then Contador.

Lance just races for one race

This would have been Contadors 3rd tour in a row.
Contador has already won the Giro and The Vuelta(which is harder than the Tour de France)Lance has never done that

He's best GT rider, so he'll sure do well. But, his behaviour in this Tour won't bring him any friends, just enemies. I'm not saying he's over the line all the time, but he does things which don't go him in favor.

__________________
"Soldiers! Heroes!

The supreme command has erased our regiment from its records. Our regiment has been sacrificed for the honor of Belgrade and the Fatherland. Therefore, you no longer have to worry for your lives - they do not exist anymore.
So, forward to glory! For King and country! Long live the king! Long live Belgrade! "

It is poetic justice really, the Tour starts, Lance says he will ride for AC. Lance gets in the split peleton and ends up ahead of Contador on the GC, all of a sudden there are "two team leaders", Lance thinks he has a chance to win. Then he gets a severe butt-kicking on all the HC and Cat-1 climbs and realizes "Crap, I can't ride with this kid, he is too much for me!", so he decides it is time to say he can't win the GC and he will ride for AC after all. No Lance, you didn't choose to be a good teammate, you just realized you aren't the team leader that you once thought you were. So as AC said from the start, the road will sort it out, it truly has.