Will Bicycle Theft Increase?

Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps rising, but
it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in bikes becoming so
much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers? Will the term,
"bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?

Close to 1,000 bikes are stolen (reported) in my community every year. Only a small percentage
are recovered and the police provide no solution to this.

I'd advise those who ride regularly to find an old beater or two now, while they're still
available, in the $25-$50. category and keep them in reserve. During World War II, when no new
cars were sold, used cars went for a premium price, if one could even be found. I imagine that
bicycles were very popular then, and also hard to buy. Do any old-timers remember what the
bicycle availability and usage was back then?

Steve McDonald

"Steve McDonald" wrote:

> During World War II, when no new cars were sold, used cars went for a premium price, if one could
> even be found. I imagine that bicycles were very popular then, and also hard to buy. Do any
> old-timers remember what the bicycle availability and usage was back then?

Go rent the movie "The Bicycle Thief" (in Italian with english sub-titles) which is set in
post-war Italy.

Art Harris

Probably will cause an increase in gasoline theft, buy a locking gas cap instead of a beater bike!

"Steve McDonald" <bigrocketman3@webtv.net> wrote in message
news:1458-3E50C181-300@storefull-211...wson.webtv.net...
>
> Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps
> rising, but it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in
> bikes becoming so much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers?
> Will the term, "bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?
>
> Close to 1,000 bikes are stolen (reported) in my community every year. Only a small
> percentage are recovered and the police provide no solution to this.
>
> I'd advise those who ride regularly to find an old beater or two now, while they're still
> available, in the $25-$50. category and keep them in reserve. During World War II, when no
> new cars were sold, used cars went for a premium price, if one could even be found. I imagine
> that bicycles were very popular then, and also hard to buy. Do any old-timers remember what
> the bicycle availability and usage was back then?
>
> Steve McDonald

In article <1458-3E50C181-300@storefull-2111.public.lawson.webtv.net>,
bigrocketman3@webtv.net says...
>
> Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps
> rising, but it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in
> bikes becoming so much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers?
> Will the term, "bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?

I think they are already being stolen as fast as they are being purchased, there probably wouldn't
even be a worth while market for new bikes in college towns if it weren't for the thieves

--
_________________________
Chris Phillipo - Cape Breton, Nova Scotia http://www.ramsays-online.com

In article <MPG.18bb08569d2d1b51989bbf@news.eastlink.ca>, Chris Phillipo
<cphillipo@ramsays-online.coim> wrote:
>In article <1458-3E50C181-300@storefull-2111.public.lawson.webtv.net>,
>bigrocketman3@webtv.net says...
>>
>> Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps
>> rising, but it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in
>> bikes becoming so much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers?
>> Will the term, "bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?
>
>I think they are already being stolen as fast as they are being purchased, there probably wouldn't
>even be a worth while market for new bikes in college towns if it weren't for the thieves

Doesn't that sort of assume that stolen bikes are removed from the "market"? I thought they were
part of the market. You don't mean to tell me those thieves are all collectors...?

--Paul

Ha! The average american is to fat and out of shape to ride a bike for more then just a mile of
recreatinal riding. If they had to ride to work a good lot of them would die of a heart attack. Gas
theif would be more likely.

"Steve McDonald" <bigrocketman3@webtv.net> wrote in message
news:1458-3E50C181-300@storefull-211...wson.webtv.net...
>
> Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps
> rising, but it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in
> bikes becoming so much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers?
> Will the term, "bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?
>
> Close to 1,000 bikes are stolen (reported) in my community every year. Only a small
> percentage are recovered and the police provide no solution to this.
>
> I'd advise those who ride regularly to find an old beater or two now, while they're still
> available, in the $25-$50. category and keep them in reserve. During World War II, when no
> new cars were sold, used cars went for a premium price, if one could even be found. I imagine
> that bicycles were very popular then, and also hard to buy. Do any old-timers remember what
> the bicycle availability and usage was back then?
>
> Steve McDonald

Derral <didleman@cox.net> wrote:
: Probably will cause an increase in gasoline theft, buy a locking gas cap instead of a beater bike!

Better yet, sell your car now while it's still worth something and stockpile a few thousand $20
bikes - you'll make a fortune!

Cheerz, Lynzz

Steve McDonald <bigrocketman3@webtv.net> wrote:

: Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps
: rising, but it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in
: bikes becoming so much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers?
: Will the term, "bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?

I read that the oil crisis was one reason for the 70's cycling boom in Finland. In the Netherlands
bike theft figures in really big numbers. I know some .nl folks who have had 5 bikes stolen from
them. But I suspect it's about supply (lots of bikes available) not just demand (not enough bikes
available), when you try to explain the Dutch scene. In other words, the resulting volume of bikes a
professional can acquire and sell is lucrative...

: Close to 1,000 bikes are stolen (reported) in my community every year. Only a small
: percentage are recovered and the police provide no solution to this.

I hear quite a few are recovered here... but the owners don't claim them, so they are sold by the
police in an auction. (Hmm, now that's one good place to get cheap parts for your dream recumbent
homebuilt project

--
Risto Varanka | http://www.helsinki.fi/~rvaranka/ varis at no spam please iki fi

>bigrocketman3@webtv.net (Steve McDonald)

wrote:

> Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps rising,
> but it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in bikes becoming
> so much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers? Will the term,
> "bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?

---snip----

This sounds as if you are visualizing bands of thugs roaming the street robbing people of their
bikes. Did you just watch "Road Warrior" or a similiar post-apocalypse movie or something?

> Close to 1,000 bikes are stolen (reported) in my community every year. Only a small percentage
> are recovered and the police provide no solution to this.

The solution to bike theft is the same as the solution to any property crime. It's up to property
owners to protect their property by taking reasonable precautions to prevent theft.

> I'd advise those who ride regularly to find an old beater or two now, while they're still
> available, in the $25-$50. category and keep them in reserve. During World War II, when no new
> cars were sold, used cars went for a premium price, if one could even be found. I imagine that
> bicycles were very popular then, and also hard to buy. Do any old-timers remember what the
> bicycle availability and usage was back then?

Your analogy doesn't hold true. Automobiles, bicycles and many other forms of machinery were
dfifficult or impossible to obtain during WW2 because of the war effort's consumption of both
resources and manufacturing capacity. I don't know if bikes were extremely difficult to obtain then
but I know it was next to impossible to buy a new sewing machine between mid-1942 and late 1945
primarily because the factories that produced them were converted to the production of small arms.

Regards, Bob Hunt

You insist on being insulting and contrary even when you cite no legitimate basis or purpose for it.
Perhaps the anonymity of the Web offers you your only means to vent your personal frustrations.

In fact, no bicycle owner can prevent its theft, when it has to be left in an unprotected
place. Skilled thieves can break any lock with cutters or a hammer and ultra-freezing aerosol
spray to make it brittle. Unless you can carry your bicycle into every place to which you ride,
no amount of owner responsibility will eliminate that. And, there are gangs of bike thieves
roaming about now. I only asked the question, if theft would get worse and possibly violent, in
a gas shortage.

The effects of the car, bike and gas shortage of World War II may make it a very good analogy
to how a scarcity of gas could affect the demand for bicycles in the future. Unless you have a
horse to tow it, a car without gas has little function. It doesn't matter if the unavailability
of cars is due to a shutdown of manufacturing or a fuel shortage, as the demand for other means
of transportation will increase in either case.

Steve McDonald

In article <2935-3E51B0D4-344@storefull-2114.public.lawson.webtv.net>, Steve McDonald
<bigrocketman3@webtv.net> wrote:
> I only asked the question, if theft would get worse and possibly violent, in a gas shortage.
>
> The effects of the car, bike and gas shortage of World War II may make it a very good analogy
> to how a scarcity of gas could affect the demand for bicycles in the future. Unless you have a
> horse to tow it, a car without gas has little function. It doesn't matter if the
> unavailability of cars is due to a shutdown of manufacturing or a fuel shortage, as the demand
> for other means of transportation will increase in either case.

I don't see why this is going to create a problematic scarcity of bikes. If manufacturers can't sell
cars but they can sell bikes, they will make more bikes. One month of car expense pays for a bike
good enough to commute on for years. I'm sure there would be catastrophic effects on the economy if
people could not afford to drive to work, since millions of people have built mansions in the
countryside and commute hours each way every day to get to their jobs. But I don't think
bike-jacking would be the thing to worry about in that situation. The high price of food in the
inner-city and inability to get to work (with or without a bike) would be much bigger problems.

--Paul

>bigrocketman3@webtv.net (Steve McDonald)

wrote:

>You insist on being insulting and contrary even when you cite no legitimate basis or purpose for
>it. Perhaps the anonymity of the Web offers you your only means to vent your personal frustrations.
>
> In fact, no bicycle owner can prevent its theft, when it has to be left in an unprotected
> place. Skilled thieves can break any lock with cutters or a hammer and ultra-freezing aerosol
> spray to make it brittle. Unless you can carry your bicycle into every place to which you
> ride, no amount of owner responsibility will eliminate that. And, there are gangs of bike
> thieves roaming about now. I only asked the question, if theft would get worse and possibly
> violent, in a gas shortage.
>
> The effects of the car, bike and gas shortage of World War II may make it a very good analogy
> to how a scarcity of gas could affect the demand for bicycles in the future. Unless you have a
> horse to tow it, a car without gas has little function. It doesn't matter if the
> unavailability of cars is due to a shutdown of manufacturing or a fuel shortage, as the demand
> for other means of transportation will increase in either case.
>
>Steve McDonald

Steve- I was not trying to insult you and I apologize if you took offense at what was intended as a
joke about roaming bands of bicycle thieves in a post-apocalyptic world. Further, I wasn't singling
out those of us (including me) that have lost bikes to thieves as being irresponsible. What I was
saying is that unless one is willing to put a police officer on every corner 24-7 "the solution to
bike theft is the same as the solution to any property crime. It's up to property owners to protect
their property by taking reasonable precautions to prevent theft". Theft of property will *always*
occur. There is no way to prevent *every* theft.

Having said all that, your original post asked if a gas shortage would make bicycles scarce or hard
to obtain. You said it would and likened such a situation to the unavailability of newly-
manufactured autos in WW2 due to wartime conditions. I gave you my opinion by replying,
"Automobiles, bicycles, and many other forms of machinery were difficult or impossible to obtain
during WW2 because of the war effort's consumption of both resources and manufacturing capacity. I
don't know if bikes were extremely difficult to obtain then but I know it was next to impossible to
buy a new sewing machine between mid-1942 and late 1945 primarily because the factories that
produced them were converted to the production of small arms.". Unless you're positing such a severe
scarcity of petroleum that all the bike manufacturers will be unable to obtain sufficient petroleum
products to build bikes, your analogy simply does not hold water. If OTOH you *are* positing such a
dire shortage of petroleum then building bicycles will become a high priority just as manufacturing
small arms did in between '42 and '45 and then of course the bike shortage you envision won't occur,
will it? At least not until the total breakdown of modern society occurs and then we're in big
trouble anyway you slice it.

In summary- You asked for opinions. I offered mine and gave you my reasoning. You didn't like my
opinion or the way it was phrased. Instead of disagreeing with it and setting out your reasons
for that disagreement (or just ignoring it) you simply attacked me. Or did I miss something in
your post?

Bob Hunt

"Steve McDonald" wrote in
>
> Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough....

Crime is a great economic indicator in the USA. The stronger the economy, the lower the crime rate,
and visa versa. Bicycle theft probably varies with the general crime rate. The scenario you ponder
is part of an overall decline in the economy.

Suppose alternative transportation and renewable sources of energy thrive ..........

Regards, Larry "Cabin Fever" Fieman

> Suppose the petroleum supply is reduced enough, so that not only the price of gas keeps rising,
> but it becomes hard to buy or completely unavailable at times. Will this result in bikes becoming
> so much in demand, that they will be stolen in greatly increased numbers?

I doubt it. Anyone driving a car can easily buy a bicycle. My guess is that bicycle thieves are not
normally people who drive a great deal.

> Will the term, "bike-jacking", become part of our vocabulary?

I doubt that too. Too hard to make a fast getaway and trying would make the bike jacker vulnerable,
assuming he/she could even get on the bike.

>During World War II, when no new cars were sold, used cars went for a premium price, if one could
>even be found. I imagine that bicycles were very popular then, and also hard to buy.

My guess is that there is plenty of reserve production capacity and sufficient stockpiles that this
would not really be a problem.

MY guess is also that only a few people will really start riding because of the gas prices. More
likely, the prices of used SUVs will drop and the demand for more reasonable, economical cars will
increase dramatically.

jon isaacs

Yes, you missed everything after my first paragraph, where I made some effort to present my reasons
for disagreement. But, I'm glad that you've turned our exchange in a friendlier direction and I'll
work at doing that, myself.

To individuals who have limited resources, the availability of greater numbers of new bicycles
wouldn't help them much. If their bikes were stolen, especially if it happened repeatedly,
cheap, old ones might be all they could afford. If the demand for bikes doubled, all the used
ones would get snapped up, regardless of how many of the more expensive new ones were for
sale. If the demand kept growing, before long, all bikes would sell for more and less affluent
riders who had their wheels stolen would become pedestrians. Then there's the matter of rising
shoe prices.

As I recommended to others, I have two extra $15. to $25. beater bikes from Goodwill stashed in
my garage. With a little work, I could turn either of them into a passably good ride. Anyone
think that I'm foolish or overly pessimistic about the future for doing this?

Steve McDonald