10 Questions For Lance Armstrong

"The five-time Tour de France champ on his cancer crusade, his divorce and the French"

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...488805,00.html

J. Spaceman

.. and a lot about retiring.

Jason Spaceman wrote:
> "The five-time Tour de France champ on his cancer crusade, his divorce and the French"
>
> http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...488805,00.html
>
>
>
>
> J. Spaceman

I noticed that too, at least TWO ref. to retiring soon, but I personally don't see it before the end
of 2004, maybe even 2005.

"Dan Connelly" <djconnel@ieee.org> wrote in message
news:RZ3cb.1399$se7.1034@newssvr16.news.prodigy.com...
> .. and a lot about retiring.
>
> Jason Spaceman wrote:
> > "The five-time Tour de France champ on his cancer crusade, his divorce
and
> > the French"
> >
> >
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...488805,00.html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > J. Spaceman

I would bet at 2004 end -

Tour de France Olympics Worlds?

Good way to end, 6 times, a gold or two and a worlds TT or road title/

"metalleg" <metalleg@insightbb.com> wrote in message news:U18cb.558823$YN5.383425@sccrnsc01...
> I noticed that too, at least TWO ref. to retiring soon, but I personally don't see it before the
> end of 2004, maybe even 2005.
>
> "Dan Connelly" <djconnel@ieee.org> wrote in message
> news:RZ3cb.1399$se7.1034@newssvr16.news.prodigy.com...
> > .. and a lot about retiring.
> >
> > Jason Spaceman wrote:
> > > "The five-time Tour de France champ on his cancer crusade, his divorce
> and
> > > the French"
> > >
> > >
> http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...488805,00.html
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > J. Spaceman
> > >
>

"rope --> huh?" <cfbill@charter.net> wrote:
> I would bet at 2004 end -

> Tour de France Olympics Worlds?

> Good way to end, 6 times, a gold or two and a worlds TT or road title/

He won't retire until he loses the Tour. I see him on an Indurain trajectory. Regardless of the Tour
result he'll shoot for a gold in the TT in Athens. If he does not hit 6 next summer he'll be gone
after that. Worlds is a been-there-done-that sort of thing for him.

I don't think anyone here, and certainly not the people that slam LANCE for not racing enough, have
a clue about the amount of stress associated with those three weeks in July and their toll over five
years. Both Indurain and LANCE are very strong men in any sense in which you would apply that word.
And both adopted very similar training schedules which are very light post-Tour. I do not think this
is chance.

Bob Schwartz cvcc@execpc.com

"Bob Schwartz" <cvcc@shell.core.com> wrote in message news:vn3f5dcaagev14@corp.supernews.com...
> "rope --> huh?" <cfbill@charter.net> wrote:
> > I would bet at 2004 end -
>
> > Tour de France Olympics Worlds?
>
> > Good way to end, 6 times, a gold or two and a worlds TT or road title/
>
> He won't retire until he loses the Tour. I see him on an Indurain trajectory. Regardless of the
> Tour result he'll shoot for a gold in the TT in Athens. If he does not hit 6 next summer he'll be
> gone after that. Worlds is a been-there-done-that sort of thing for him.
>

I agree. I think it would have been also true any time after he got his third.

> I don't think anyone here, and certainly not the people that slam LANCE for not racing enough,
> have a clue about the amount of stress associated with those three weeks in July and their toll
> over five years. Both Indurain and LANCE are very strong men in any sense in which you would apply
> that word. And both adopted very similar training schedules which are very light post-Tour. I do
> not think this is chance.
>
> Bob Schwartz cvcc@execpc.com

In an interview with a french cycling magazine last year (sorry lost the reference) he said quite
clearly - two more TDFs and then he retires. i.e. 2004 is the last year, whether he gets the 6th win
or not. The time article seems to support that, and it makes sense - a realistic champion will want
to quite while he's on form, and whether he gets number 6 or not he won't want to ruin it by
endlessly trying to stage a comeback.

In article <RZ3cb.1399$se7.1034@newssvr16.news.prodigy.com>, Dan Connelly <djconnel@ieee.org> wrote:

> .. and a lot about retiring.
>
> Jason Spaceman wrote:
> > "The five-time Tour de France champ on his cancer crusade, his divorce and the French"
> >
> > http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...488805,00.html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > J. Spaceman
>

I'm going to go far out on a limb and make a prediction. Lance Armstrong will find by mid-May that
his body is aging and failing him. He will at that point retire rather than risk coming a certain
second or worse in the Tour.

That should stir the near off-season pot.

"WM" <w_meredithNO@SPAMyahoo.com> wrote in message
news:260920031955286829%w_meredithNO@SPAMyahoo.com...
> In an interview with a french cycling magazine last year (sorry lost the reference) he said quite
> clearly - two more TDFs and then he retires. i.e. 2004 is the last year, whether he gets the 6th
> win or not. The time article seems to support that, and it makes sense - a realistic champion will
> want to quite while he's on form, and whether he gets number 6 or not he won't want to ruin it by
> endlessly trying to stage a comeback.
>
>
> In article <RZ3cb.1399$se7.1034@newssvr16.news.prodigy.com>, Dan Connelly
> <djconnel@ieee.org> wrote:
>
> > .. and a lot about retiring.
> >
> > Jason Spaceman wrote:
> > > "The five-time Tour de France champ on his cancer crusade, his divorce
and
> > > the French"
> > >
> > >
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...488805,00.html
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > J. Spaceman
> > >

"B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
news:z8%cb.14988$ai7.5682@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net...
> I'm going to go far out on a limb and make a prediction. Lance Armstrong will find by mid-May that
> his body is aging and failing him. He will at that point retire rather than risk coming a certain
> second or worse in the Tour.

Would you be willing to put $$ on that?

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:

>
> "B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
> news:z8%cb.14988$ai7.5682@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net...
>> I'm going to go far out on a limb and make a prediction. Lance Armstrong will find by mid-May
>> that his body is aging and failing him. He will at that point retire rather than risk coming a
>> certain second or worse in the Tour.
>
> Would you be willing to put $$ on that?

Yeah, that's a silly prediction.

I hope that when the time comes, he retires based on the fact that his body is aging, and not based
on an arbitrary line he drew on the number of wins. If he comes back next year and kicks tail again,
why should he retire?

Shayne Wissler

"Kurgan Gringioni" <kgringioni.remove.it.for.mail@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:UR%cb.4135$iT4.3032912@news1.news.adelphia.net...
>
> "B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
> news:z8%cb.14988$ai7.5682@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net...
> > I'm going to go far out on a limb and make a prediction. Lance
Armstrong
> > will find by mid-May that his body is aging and failing him. He will at that point retire rather
> > than risk coming a certain second or worse in
the
> > Tour.
>
>
>
>
> Would you be willing to put $$ on that?
>
>

I would, but I would expect odds. That is about a 10 to 1, in that realm. Too many details to risk
on a straight bet.

"Nick Burns" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:3f749492$0$57560$a32e20b9@news.nntpservers.com...
>
> "Kurgan Gringioni" <kgringioni.remove.it.for.mail@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:UR%cb.4135$iT4.3032912@news1.news.adelphia.net...
> >
> > "B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
> > news:z8%cb.14988$ai7.5682@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net...
> > > I'm going to go far out on a limb and make a prediction. Lance
> Armstrong
> > > will find by mid-May that his body is aging and failing him. He will
at
> > > that point retire rather than risk coming a certain second or worse in
> the
> > > Tour.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Would you be willing to put $$ on that?
> >
> >
>
> I would, but I would expect odds. That is about a 10 to 1, in that realm. Too many details to risk
> on a straight bet.

Nick, where do you reside? This could be worth an ale bet. I'd bet with Henry, but I have no desire
to drink with him under any circumstances.

"B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
news:Oj1db.15434$ai7.8749@newsread1.....earthlink.net...
>
> "Nick Burns" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:3f749492$0$57560$a32e20b9@news.nntpservers.com...
> >
> > "Kurgan Gringioni" <kgringioni.remove.it.for.mail@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> > news:UR%cb.4135$iT4.3032912@news1.news.adelphia.net...
> > >
> > > "B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
> > > news:z8%cb.14988$ai7.5682@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net...
> > > > I'm going to go far out on a limb and make a prediction. Lance
> > Armstrong
> > > > will find by mid-May that his body is aging and failing him. He
will
> at
> > > > that point retire rather than risk coming a certain second or worse
in
> > the
> > > > Tour.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Would you be willing to put $$ on that?
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I would, but I would expect odds. That is about a 10 to 1, in that
realm.
> > Too many details to risk on a straight bet.
>
> Nick, where do you reside? This could be worth an ale bet. I'd bet with Henry, but I have no
> desire to drink with him under any circumstances.
>
>

I live in Ca, but we can have a gentlemen's bet (can't do that one with Hank either...).

"B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
news:Oj1db.15434$ai7.8749@newsread1.....earthlink.net...
>
> "Nick Burns" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:3f749492$0$57560$a32e20b9@news.nntpservers.com...
> >
> > "Kurgan Gringioni" <kgringioni.remove.it.for.mail@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> > news:UR%cb.4135$iT4.3032912@news1.news.adelphia.net...
> > >
> > > "B. Lafferty" <javaeye@nospamearthlink.net> wrote in message
> > > news:z8%cb.14988$ai7.5682@newsread1.news.atl.earthlink.net...
> > > > I'm going to go far out on a limb and make a prediction. Lance
> > Armstrong
> > > > will find by mid-May that his body is aging and failing him. He will
> at
> > > > that point retire rather than risk coming a certain second or worse
in
> > the
> > > > Tour.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Would you be willing to put $$ on that?
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I would, but I would expect odds. That is about a 10 to 1, in that realm. Too many details to
> > risk on a straight bet.
>
> Nick, where do you reside? This could be worth an ale bet. I'd bet with Henry, but I have no
> desire to drink with him under any circumstances.

Dumbass -

The reason I think your prediction is stupid is that the limiting factor in stage racing as one gets
older is the ability to recover day to day. That can't be tested until actually doing the race (in
this case, the Tour de France). Additionally, if a rider isn't doing well in May, it doesn't necessarily follow
that they will be going poorly in July. Lemond in '89 is a good example of that. Conversely, Simoni
of '03 is the inverse.

The above reasons is why we never see Tour riders retiring in May. They retire *after* the race, not
before it.

Older riders can still compete in one day races (no need for next-day recovery) - the old guys do
very well in the Cobbled Classics for instance.