Hey Simon, where's Serguei/Herguey?

I know, it's mean to gloat, so I guess this means I need to improve my
personality....

Simon, Let me dig up something:

http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...6d2ffd44e58f85

Where you say Gonchar is about equal to Savoldelli in the mountains.

Honchar just had his jour sans, then:

86 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 33.47

That, by the way, was the Zabel group.

Svoldelli, obviously having a day in which he was not trying, or not
capable, or just lazy:

50 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 23.04

Nothing to be proud of, but still ten minutes ahead of the roughly
equivalent Gonchar.

More importantly, I think my original comment that Sergei (I keep spelling
it differently so Google can find this post later was a dubious GC threat is
amply vindicated.

BTW, if we're tracking GC threats, I think it's down to a few guys. Using
some rash assumptions (mostly I looked for people who did well today and
didn't completely suck in the TT, or vice versa), here's my short list in
no particular order:

Denis Menchov
Levi Leipheimer*
Floyd Landis
Cadel Evans
Carlos Sastre
Andreas Kloden

Dubious possibilities:

Haimar Zubeldia
Michael Rogers
Christophe Moreau**

No longer in it, but I'm mentioning them to mock those who ever mentioned
them as favourites:

Paolo Savoldelli
George Hincapie (and everyone else on suddenly sad-sack Discovery)
Gilberto Simoni
Damiano Cunego
Michael Rasmussen (what were you people thinking?)
Hergey Honchar (what was Simon thinking?)

*Levi only gets a mention because I believe his TT performance was an
anomaly, and he seems to have made some sort of recovery with today's
performance.

**Christophe is pretty well-placed on GC, and maybe I should be more
generous, but he was pretty consistent about losing 2 minutes today, and 2
minutes in the TT. Also, he's French.

So, that's my unscientific list. Errors and omissions to the usual address
please.

One more thing: I'm liking this Tour de Anarchy stuff. I'm doubtful, but
it's not entirely impossible some low-hoper could sneak away in a break and
steal just enough time from a disorganized pack to get away with the yellow
jersey. If you want a specific scenario, how about this:

Stage 18, the day before the final TT, and the day after they leave the big
mountains. Landis has a couple of minutes on GC against all comers, the
T-Mobile team have all had their mandatory jours sans, and after a [random
misfortune] Kloden is not in contention. The stage starts out tired, but
somewhere around the first sprint point, a group of ten riders takes off,
with no Phonak representation, and . . . Christophe Moreau and Eddy
Mazzoleni have snuck into the bunch!

Nightmare scenario for Landis: his team sucks, so the hopes to chase down
and control such a break are marginal. This isn't an obvious stage for
sprinters, so those teams won't help. T-Mobile is strong, but if they're
represented in the break, they'll sit in.

The break works well together, and the decimated Phonak cannot catch the
break. Landis ends up trying to pull the peloton himself.

Mazzoleni and Moreau drop the escape over one of the last two climbs, and
TTT to the end. Mazzoleni takes the stage win, Moreau is in yellow by
3:30, and the TT is tomorrow...

I think such a scenario is quite possible.
--
Ryan Cousineau, rcousine@sfu.ca, www.wiredcola.com
Democracy, whiskey, and sexy!

"Ryan John Cousineau" <rcousine@sfu.ca> a écrit dans le message de news:
e96588$kpm$1@morgoth.sfu.ca...
|I know, it's mean to gloat, so I guess this means I need to improve my
| personality....
|
| Simon, Let me dig up something:
|
| http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...6d2ffd44e58f85
|
| Where you say Gonchar is about equal to Savoldelli in the mountains.
|
| Honchar just had his jour sans, then:
|
| 86 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 33.47
|
| That, by the way, was the Zabel group.
|
| Svoldelli, obviously having a day in which he was not trying, or not
| capable, or just lazy:
|
| 50 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 23.04
|
| Nothing to be proud of, but still ten minutes ahead of the roughly
| equivalent Gonchar.
|
| More importantly, I think my original comment that Sergei (I keep spelling
| it differently so Google can find this post later was a dubious GC
threat is
| amply vindicated.
|
| BTW, if we're tracking GC threats, I think it's down to a few guys. Using
| some rash assumptions (mostly I looked for people who did well today and
| didn't completely suck in the TT, or vice versa), here's my short list in
| no particular order:
|
| Denis Menchov
| Levi Leipheimer*
| Floyd Landis
| Cadel Evans
| Carlos Sastre
| Andreas Kloden
|
| Dubious possibilities:
|
| Haimar Zubeldia
| Michael Rogers
| Christophe Moreau**
|
| No longer in it, but I'm mentioning them to mock those who ever mentioned
| them as favourites:
|
| Paolo Savoldelli
| George Hincapie (and everyone else on suddenly sad-sack Discovery)
| Gilberto Simoni
| Damiano Cunego
| Michael Rasmussen (what were you people thinking?)
| Hergey Honchar (what was Simon thinking?)
|
| *Levi only gets a mention because I believe his TT performance was an
| anomaly, and he seems to have made some sort of recovery with today's
| performance.
|
| **Christophe is pretty well-placed on GC, and maybe I should be more
| generous, but he was pretty consistent about losing 2 minutes today, and 2
| minutes in the TT. Also, he's French.
|
| So, that's my unscientific list. Errors and omissions to the usual address
| please.
|
| One more thing: I'm liking this Tour de Anarchy stuff. I'm doubtful, but
| it's not entirely impossible some low-hoper could sneak away in a break
and
| steal just enough time from a disorganized pack to get away with the
yellow
| jersey. If you want a specific scenario, how about this:
|
| Stage 18, the day before the final TT, and the day after they leave the
big
| mountains. Landis has a couple of minutes on GC against all comers, the
| T-Mobile team have all had their mandatory jours sans, and after a [random
| misfortune] Kloden is not in contention. The stage starts out tired, but
| somewhere around the first sprint point, a group of ten riders takes off,
| with no Phonak representation, and . . . Christophe Moreau and Eddy
| Mazzoleni have snuck into the bunch!
|
| Nightmare scenario for Landis: his team sucks, so the hopes to chase down
| and control such a break are marginal. This isn't an obvious stage for
| sprinters, so those teams won't help. T-Mobile is strong, but if they're
| represented in the break, they'll sit in.
|
| The break works well together, and the decimated Phonak cannot catch the
| break. Landis ends up trying to pull the peloton himself.
|
| Mazzoleni and Moreau drop the escape over one of the last two climbs, and
| TTT to the end. Mazzoleni takes the stage win, Moreau is in yellow by
| 3:30, and the TT is tomorrow...
|
| I think such a scenario is quite possible.
| --

That would be way cool! Of course Landis would still win. After all, we're
talking about France and Moreau.

Ryan John Cousineau wrote:
> I know, it's mean to gloat, so I guess this means I need to improve my
> personality....
>
> Simon, Let me dig up something:
>
> http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...6d2ffd44e58f85
>
> Where you say Gonchar is about equal to Savoldelli in the mountains.
>
> Honchar just had his jour sans, then:
>
> 86 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 33.47
>
> That, by the way, was the Zabel group.
>
> Svoldelli, obviously having a day in which he was not trying, or not
> capable, or just lazy:
>
> 50 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 23.04
>
> Nothing to be proud of, but still ten minutes ahead of the roughly
> equivalent Gonchar.
>
> More importantly, I think my original comment that Sergei (I keep spelling
> it differently so Google can find this post later was a dubious GC threat is
> amply vindicated.
>
> BTW, if we're tracking GC threats, I think it's down to a few guys. Using
> some rash assumptions (mostly I looked for people who did well today and
> didn't completely suck in the TT, or vice versa), here's my short list in
> no particular order:
>
> Denis Menchov
> Levi Leipheimer*
> Floyd Landis
> Cadel Evans
> Carlos Sastre
> Andreas Kloden
>
> Dubious possibilities:
>
> Haimar Zubeldia
> Michael Rogers
> Christophe Moreau**
>
> No longer in it, but I'm mentioning them to mock those who ever mentioned
> them as favourites:
>
> Paolo Savoldelli
> George Hincapie (and everyone else on suddenly sad-sack Discovery)
> Gilberto Simoni
> Damiano Cunego
> Michael Rasmussen (what were you people thinking?)
> Hergey Honchar (what was Simon thinking?)
>
> *Levi only gets a mention because I believe his TT performance was an
> anomaly, and he seems to have made some sort of recovery with today's
> performance.
>
> **Christophe is pretty well-placed on GC, and maybe I should be more
> generous, but he was pretty consistent about losing 2 minutes today, and 2
> minutes in the TT. Also, he's French.
>
> So, that's my unscientific list. Errors and omissions to the usual address
> please.
>
> One more thing: I'm liking this Tour de Anarchy stuff. I'm doubtful, but
> it's not entirely impossible some low-hoper could sneak away in a break and
> steal just enough time from a disorganized pack to get away with the yellow
> jersey. If you want a specific scenario, how about this:
>
> Stage 18, the day before the final TT, and the day after they leave the big
> mountains. Landis has a couple of minutes on GC against all comers, the
> T-Mobile team have all had their mandatory jours sans, and after a [random
> misfortune] Kloden is not in contention. The stage starts out tired, but
> somewhere around the first sprint point, a group of ten riders takes off,
> with no Phonak representation, and . . . Christophe Moreau and Eddy
> Mazzoleni have snuck into the bunch!
>
> Nightmare scenario for Landis: his team sucks, so the hopes to chase down
> and control such a break are marginal. This isn't an obvious stage for
> sprinters, so those teams won't help. T-Mobile is strong, but if they're
> represented in the break, they'll sit in.
>
> The break works well together, and the decimated Phonak cannot catch the
> break. Landis ends up trying to pull the peloton himself.
>
> Mazzoleni and Moreau drop the escape over one of the last two climbs, and
> TTT to the end. Mazzoleni takes the stage win, Moreau is in yellow by
> 3:30, and the TT is tomorrow...
>
> I think such a scenario is quite possible.
> --
> Ryan Cousineau, rcousine@sfu.ca, www.wiredcola.com
> Democracy, whiskey, and sexy!

There's one very serious flaw to your prognostication for stage 18. If
today's results are any indication of what to expect, Floyd will not
have a couple of minutes on the GC contenders. He'll have many
multiples of that, such that he and Axel together can do whatever's
necessary to limit the damage you portend.

"trg" <trg@world.REMOVETHIS.std.com> a écrit dans le message de news:
44b6a0a4$0$31647$626a54ce@news.free.fr...
| "Ryan John Cousineau" <rcousine@sfu.ca> a écrit dans le message de news:
| e96588$kpm$1@morgoth.sfu.ca...
||I know, it's mean to gloat, so I guess this means I need to improve my
|| personality....
||
|| Simon, Let me dig up something:
||
|| http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...6d2ffd44e58f85
||
|| Where you say Gonchar is about equal to Savoldelli in the mountains.
||
|| Honchar just had his jour sans, then:
||
|| 86 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 33.47
||
|| That, by the way, was the Zabel group.
||
|| Svoldelli, obviously having a day in which he was not trying, or not
|| capable, or just lazy:
||
|| 50 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 23.04
||
|| Nothing to be proud of, but still ten minutes ahead of the roughly
|| equivalent Gonchar.
||
|| More importantly, I think my original comment that Sergei (I keep
spelling
|| it differently so Google can find this post later was a dubious GC
| threat is
|| amply vindicated.
||
|| BTW, if we're tracking GC threats, I think it's down to a few guys. Using
|| some rash assumptions (mostly I looked for people who did well today and
|| didn't completely suck in the TT, or vice versa), here's my short list in
|| no particular order:
||
|| Denis Menchov
|| Levi Leipheimer*
|| Floyd Landis
|| Cadel Evans
|| Carlos Sastre
|| Andreas Kloden
||
|| Dubious possibilities:
||
|| Haimar Zubeldia
|| Michael Rogers
|| Christophe Moreau**
||
|| No longer in it, but I'm mentioning them to mock those who ever mentioned
|| them as favourites:
||
|| Paolo Savoldelli
|| George Hincapie (and everyone else on suddenly sad-sack Discovery)
|| Gilberto Simoni
|| Damiano Cunego
|| Michael Rasmussen (what were you people thinking?)
|| Hergey Honchar (what was Simon thinking?)
||
|| *Levi only gets a mention because I believe his TT performance was an
|| anomaly, and he seems to have made some sort of recovery with today's
|| performance.
||
|| **Christophe is pretty well-placed on GC, and maybe I should be more
|| generous, but he was pretty consistent about losing 2 minutes today, and
2
|| minutes in the TT. Also, he's French.
||
|| So, that's my unscientific list. Errors and omissions to the usual
address
|| please.
||
|| One more thing: I'm liking this Tour de Anarchy stuff. I'm doubtful, but
|| it's not entirely impossible some low-hoper could sneak away in a break
| and
|| steal just enough time from a disorganized pack to get away with the
| yellow
|| jersey. If you want a specific scenario, how about this:
||
|| Stage 18, the day before the final TT, and the day after they leave the
| big
|| mountains. Landis has a couple of minutes on GC against all comers, the
|| T-Mobile team have all had their mandatory jours sans, and after a
[random
|| misfortune] Kloden is not in contention. The stage starts out tired, but
|| somewhere around the first sprint point, a group of ten riders takes off,
|| with no Phonak representation, and . . . Christophe Moreau and Eddy
|| Mazzoleni have snuck into the bunch!
||
|| Nightmare scenario for Landis: his team sucks, so the hopes to chase down
|| and control such a break are marginal. This isn't an obvious stage for
|| sprinters, so those teams won't help. T-Mobile is strong, but if they're
|| represented in the break, they'll sit in.
||
|| The break works well together, and the decimated Phonak cannot catch the
|| break. Landis ends up trying to pull the peloton himself.
||
|| Mazzoleni and Moreau drop the escape over one of the last two climbs, and
|| TTT to the end. Mazzoleni takes the stage win, Moreau is in yellow by
|| 3:30, and the TT is tomorrow...
||
|| I think such a scenario is quite possible.
|| --
|
| That would be way cool! Of course Landis would still win. After all, we're
| talking about France and Moreau.
|

Since you were so explicite in your scenario, I guess I should do likewise.

Keeping true to form, and owing to the fact that he has the yellow jersey on
his back and Floyd's hips are killing him, Moreau actually does better in
the second TT relative to Floyd that the first and only loses 30 seconds to
him in the final TT.

On the final stage into Paris, Moreau suddenly and apparently for no
apparent reason head butts Axel Merckx. The race commisaar has no choice but
to DQ Moreau. Afterwards, a Belgium Television station hired a deaf person
to lip read the conversation between the two leading up to the incident
which occured in Issy-Les-Moulinaux, right in front of ASO's headquarters.

Merckx: You don't deserve that champagne you garlic-smelling son of a dirty
cheese farmer!
Moreau: [Head butts Merckx]

trg wrote:
>
> Since you were so explicite in your scenario, I guess I should do likewise.
>
> Keeping true to form, and owing to the fact that he has the yellow jersey on
> his back and Floyd's hips are killing him, Moreau actually does better in
> the second TT relative to Floyd that the first and only loses 30 seconds to
> him in the final TT.
>
> On the final stage into Paris, Moreau suddenly and apparently for no
> apparent reason head butts Axel Merckx. The race commisaar has no choice but
> to DQ Moreau. Afterwards, a Belgium Television station hired a deaf person
> to lip read the conversation between the two leading up to the incident
> which occured in Issy-Les-Moulinaux, right in front of ASO's headquarters.
>
> Merckx: You don't deserve that champagne you garlic-smelling son of a dirty
> cheese farmer!
> Moreau: [Head butts Merckx]

A good prediction given recent events, but hardly unprecedented.
Francesco "GWB impersonator" Casagrande got his ass kicked
out of the Giro at a time when he was still a contender, for more
or less this sort of thing, except there wasn't even a provocation.

"Scott" <hendricks_scott@hotmail.com> a écrit dans le message de news:
1152819757.956676.118030@b28g2000cwb.googlegroups.com...
|
| Ryan John Cousineau wrote:
| > I know, it's mean to gloat, so I guess this means I need to improve my
| > personality....
| >
| > Simon, Let me dig up something:
| >
| > http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...6d2ffd44e58f85
| >
| > Where you say Gonchar is about equal to Savoldelli in the mountains.
| >
| > Honchar just had his jour sans, then:
| >
| > 86 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 33.47
| >
| > That, by the way, was the Zabel group.
| >
| > Svoldelli, obviously having a day in which he was not trying, or not
| > capable, or just lazy:
| >
| > 50 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 23.04
| >
| > Nothing to be proud of, but still ten minutes ahead of the roughly
| > equivalent Gonchar.
| >
| > More importantly, I think my original comment that Sergei (I keep
spelling
| > it differently so Google can find this post later was a dubious GC
threat is
| > amply vindicated.
| >
| > BTW, if we're tracking GC threats, I think it's down to a few guys.
Using
| > some rash assumptions (mostly I looked for people who did well today and
| > didn't completely suck in the TT, or vice versa), here's my short list
in
| > no particular order:
| >
| > Denis Menchov
| > Levi Leipheimer*
| > Floyd Landis
| > Cadel Evans
| > Carlos Sastre
| > Andreas Kloden
| >
| > Dubious possibilities:
| >
| > Haimar Zubeldia
| > Michael Rogers
| > Christophe Moreau**
| >
| > No longer in it, but I'm mentioning them to mock those who ever
mentioned
| > them as favourites:
| >
| > Paolo Savoldelli
| > George Hincapie (and everyone else on suddenly sad-sack Discovery)
| > Gilberto Simoni
| > Damiano Cunego
| > Michael Rasmussen (what were you people thinking?)
| > Hergey Honchar (what was Simon thinking?)
| >
| > *Levi only gets a mention because I believe his TT performance was an
| > anomaly, and he seems to have made some sort of recovery with today's
| > performance.
| >
| > **Christophe is pretty well-placed on GC, and maybe I should be more
| > generous, but he was pretty consistent about losing 2 minutes today, and
2
| > minutes in the TT. Also, he's French.
| >
| > So, that's my unscientific list. Errors and omissions to the usual
address
| > please.
| >
| > One more thing: I'm liking this Tour de Anarchy stuff. I'm doubtful, but
| > it's not entirely impossible some low-hoper could sneak away in a break
and
| > steal just enough time from a disorganized pack to get away with the
yellow
| > jersey. If you want a specific scenario, how about this:
| >
| > Stage 18, the day before the final TT, and the day after they leave the
big
| > mountains. Landis has a couple of minutes on GC against all comers, the
| > T-Mobile team have all had their mandatory jours sans, and after a
[random
| > misfortune] Kloden is not in contention. The stage starts out tired, but
| > somewhere around the first sprint point, a group of ten riders takes
off,
| > with no Phonak representation, and . . . Christophe Moreau and Eddy
| > Mazzoleni have snuck into the bunch!
| >
| > Nightmare scenario for Landis: his team sucks, so the hopes to chase
down
| > and control such a break are marginal. This isn't an obvious stage for
| > sprinters, so those teams won't help. T-Mobile is strong, but if they're
| > represented in the break, they'll sit in.
| >
| > The break works well together, and the decimated Phonak cannot catch
the
| > break. Landis ends up trying to pull the peloton himself.
| >
| > Mazzoleni and Moreau drop the escape over one of the last two climbs,
and
| > TTT to the end. Mazzoleni takes the stage win, Moreau is in yellow by
| > 3:30, and the TT is tomorrow...
| >
| > I think such a scenario is quite possible.
| > --
| > Ryan Cousineau, rcousine@sfu.ca, www.wiredcola.com
| > Democracy, whiskey, and sexy!
|
| There's one very serious flaw to your prognostication for stage 18. If
| today's results are any indication of what to expect, Floyd will not
| have a couple of minutes on the GC contenders. He'll have many
| multiples of that, such that he and Axel together can do whatever's
| necessary to limit the damage you portend.
|

The real flaw is that Floyd will find allies of circumstance, as he did
today, and likely the same as he did today- Rabobank. Whoever the number 2
and 3 are in the GC will not be happy to see Floyd knocked down a rung if it
means they also get knocked down a rung and possibly off the podium that
close to Paris. Whoever is higher than Moreau on the GC will work to bring
the break back.

<bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> a écrit dans le message de news:
1152821364.566086.134760@m79g2000cwm.googlegroups.com...
| trg wrote:
| >
| > Since you were so explicite in your scenario, I guess I should do
likewise.
| >
| > Keeping true to form, and owing to the fact that he has the yellow
jersey on
| > his back and Floyd's hips are killing him, Moreau actually does better
in
| > the second TT relative to Floyd that the first and only loses 30 seconds
to
| > him in the final TT.
| >
| > On the final stage into Paris, Moreau suddenly and apparently for no
| > apparent reason head butts Axel Merckx. The race commisaar has no choice
but
| > to DQ Moreau. Afterwards, a Belgium Television station hired a deaf
person
| > to lip read the conversation between the two leading up to the incident
| > which occured in Issy-Les-Moulinaux, right in front of ASO's
headquarters.
| >
| > Merckx: You don't deserve that champagne you garlic-smelling son of a
dirty
| > cheese farmer!
| > Moreau: [Head butts Merckx]
|
| A good prediction given recent events, but hardly unprecedented.
| Francesco "GWB impersonator" Casagrande got his ass kicked
| out of the Giro at a time when he was still a contender, for more
| or less this sort of thing, except there wasn't even a provocation.
|

I'm sure that a rider (was it de la fuente?) punched someone a couple of
days ago. I was lying in my hospital bed, still groggy from the aftereffects
of the aenesthesia (no, really), sort of nodding in and out, so I didn't
catch all the details, but I'm pretty sure it really happened. Anyone?

Ryan John Cousineau wrote:
> I know, it's mean to gloat, so I guess this means I need to improve my
> personality....
> Simon, Let me dig up something:
> http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...6d2ffd44e58f85
> Where you say Gonchar is about equal to Savoldelli in the mountains.
> Honchar just had his jour sans, then:
> 86 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 33.47
> That, by the way, was the Zabel group.
> Svoldelli, obviously having a day in which he was not trying, or not
> capable, or just lazy:
> 50 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 23.04
> Nothing to be proud of, but still ten minutes ahead of the roughly
> equivalent Gonchar.
> More importantly, I think my original comment that Sergei (I keep spelling
> it differently so Google can find this post later was a dubious GC threat is
> amply vindicated.

Dumbass,

Comparing times of two guys who caught different autobuses
is irrelevant. They both sat up - one sat up sooner, or took a
more scenic route than the other. You should be beating up on
me for saying that Gonchar was not a proven no-hoper
(although I don't think T-Mobile's brief defense of his jersey
was a bad decision anyway). And beating up on Simon for
predicting that Rasmussen was the danger man because he'd
take gobs of time on every mountain stage.

bjw@mambo.ucolick.org wrote:
> Comparing times of two guys who caught different autobuses
> is irrelevant. They both sat up - one sat up sooner, or took a
> more scenic route than the other. You should be beating up on
> me for saying that Gonchar was not a proven no-hoper
> (although I don't think T-Mobile's brief defense of his jersey
> was a bad decision anyway). And beating up on Simon for
> predicting that Rasmussen was the danger man because he'd
> take gobs of time on every mountain stage.

But he's far enough back now to be able to get into a break. That could be
useful to T-M.

trg wrote:
>
>
> Merckx: You don't deserve that champagne you garlic-smelling son of a dirty
> cheese farmer!
> Moreau: [Head butts Merckx]

Someone notify **** that AG2R are using garlic-inhalers! And dirty
cheese! One can only imagine what the peasants over at Credit Agricole
and Agritubel have cooked up...

<benn.trovato@hotmail.com> a écrit dans le message de news:
1152823847.676535.119880@h48g2000cwc.googlegroups.com...
|
| trg wrote:
| >
| >
| > Merckx: You don't deserve that champagne you garlic-smelling son of a
dirty
| > cheese farmer!
| > Moreau: [Head butts Merckx]
|
| Someone notify **** that AG2R are using garlic-inhalers! And dirty
| cheese! One can only imagine what the peasants over at Credit Agricole
| and Agritubel have cooked up...
|

You might have a point there. Agritubel make some sort of tubular bovin
product. I'm afraid to find out exactly what that means. It just sounds too
disgusting.

trg schreef:
> Agritubel make some sort of tubular bovin product. I'm afraid to
> find out exactly what that means. It just sounds too disgusting.

Probably tastes like ****.


--
E. Dronkert

trg wrote:
>
> The real flaw is that Floyd will find allies of circumstance, as he did
> today, and likely the same as he did today- Rabobank. Whoever the number 2
> and 3 are in the GC will not be happy to see Floyd knocked down a rung if it
> means they also get knocked down a rung and possibly off the podium that
> close to Paris. Whoever is higher than Moreau on the GC will work to bring
> the break back.





Dumbass -


All these theories are extremely unlikely because in these modern days
of radio communications in team cars, the Phonak DS merely has to buy
some help with $$$$$$.

The Robert Millar type episode will never happen again unless a rider's
own team is against him.


thanks,

K. Gringioni.

bjw@mambo.ucolick.org wrote:
>
> Comparing times of two guys who caught different autobuses
> is irrelevant.

<snip>



Dumbass -


That's true, but the comment about Gonchar not being a GC threat was
proven, especially since his team felt the same way, having him fetch
water bottles while wearing the jersey. That says it all right there.


thanks,

K. Gringioni.

in message <e96588$kpm$1@morgoth.sfu.ca>, Ryan John Cousineau
('rcousine@sfu.ca') wrote:

> I know, it's mean to gloat, so I guess this means I need to improve my
> personality....
>
> Simon, Let me dig up something:
> http://groups.google.com/group/rec.b...6d2ffd44e58f85
>
> Where you say Gonchar is about equal to Savoldelli in the mountains.

I did, yes.

> Honchar just had his jour sans, then:
>
> 86 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 33.47
>
> That, by the way, was the Zabel group.
>
> Svoldelli, obviously having a day in which he was not trying, or not
> capable, or just lazy:
>
> 50 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel 23.04

So on a day when the whole Discovery Channel team melted like snow in the
springtime, Gonchar also faded. You say this /disproves/ my assertion?
As you'll know, there's a lot more difference in ability between fifth
and ninth place than between fiftieth and ninetieth. Gonchar had a bad
day. So, too, did /everyone/ except Menchov, Landis, Liephiemer, Evans,
and Sastre. And Evans and Sastre didn't look too great at the end.

> Nothing to be proud of, but still ten minutes ahead of the roughly
> equivalent Gonchar.

Indeed. And?

Having made the obligatory defence of going out on a limb, I agree
Gonchar is not now going to make the podium, and, in all probability,
never was.

> More importantly, I think my original comment that Sergei (I keep
> spelling it differently so Google can find this post later was a
> dubious GC threat is amply vindicated.
>
> BTW, if we're tracking GC threats, I think it's down to a few guys.
> Using some rash assumptions (mostly I looked for people who did well
> today and didn't completely suck in the TT, or vice versa), here's my
> short list in no particular order:
>
> Denis Menchov
> Levi Leipheimer*
> Floyd Landis
> Cadel Evans
> Carlos Sastre
> Andreas Kloden
>
> No longer in it, but I'm mentioning them to mock those who ever
> mentioned them as favourites:
>
[...]
> Michael Rasmussen (what were you people thinking?)

Rasmussen was always an either/or bet with Menchov - Rabobank weren't
going to back both of them.

> One more thing: I'm liking this Tour de Anarchy stuff. I'm doubtful,
> but it's not entirely impossible some low-hoper could sneak away in a
> break and steal just enough time from a disorganized pack to get away
> with the yellow jersey. If you want a specific scenario, how about
> this:
>
> Stage 18, the day before the final TT, and the day after they leave the
> big mountains. Landis has a couple of minutes on GC against all comers,
> the T-Mobile team have all had their mandatory jours sans, and after a
> [random misfortune] Kloden is not in contention. The stage starts out
> tired, but somewhere around the first sprint point, a group of ten
> riders takes off, with no Phonak representation, and . . . Christophe
> Moreau and Eddy Mazzoleni have snuck into the bunch!
>
> Nightmare scenario for Landis: his team sucks, so the hopes to chase
> down and control such a break are marginal. This isn't an obvious stage
> for sprinters, so those teams won't help. T-Mobile is strong, but if
> they're
> represented in the break, they'll sit in.
>
> The break works well together, and the decimated Phonak cannot catch
> the break. Landis ends up trying to pull the peloton himself.
>
> Mazzoleni and Moreau drop the escape over one of the last two climbs,
> and TTT to the end. Mazzoleni takes the stage win, Moreau is in yellow
> by 3:30, and the TT is tomorrow...
>
> I think such a scenario is quite possible.

I think such a scenario is entirely possible. The /only/ team which
hasn't run into very severe questionmarks is Rabobank - what on earth is
a team from /Holland/ doing being so good in the mountains? I was joking
last year about Rasmussen practising in the mountains of Jutland, but
Boogerd - how does a boy from ‘s-Gravenhage learn to climb like /that/?

Looking at strength in depth again, this is the position in the clubhouse
after one minute:
team | riders
-----------------+--------
Davitamon-Lotto | 1
Gerolsteiner | 1
Phonak | 1
Rabobank | 1
Team CSC | 1

after five minutes:
team | riders
--------------------------------+--------
T-Mobile | 3
Gerolsteiner | 3
Phonak | 2
Rabobank | 2
AG2R-Prevoyance | 2
Team CSC | 2
Discovery Channel | 1
Crédit Agricole | 1
Lampre-Fondital | 1
Cofidis | 1
Saunier Duval | 1
Davitamon-Lotto | 1
Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears | 1
Euskaltel-Euskadi | 1

after ten minutes:
team | riders
--------------------------------+--------
T-Mobile | 3
Gerolsteiner | 3
Saunier Duval | 3
Phonak | 2
Agritubel | 2
Rabobank | 2
Discovery Channel | 2
Davitamon-Lotto | 2
Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears | 2
AG2R-Prevoyance | 2
Team CSC | 2
Euskaltel-Euskadi | 2
Crédit Agricole | 1
Lampre-Fondital | 1
Cofidis | 1

after twenty minutes:
team | riders
--------------------------------+--------
Lampre-Fondital | 4
Saunier Duval | 4
AG2R-Prevoyance | 4
Gerolsteiner | 4
T-Mobile | 3
Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears | 3
Team CSC | 3
Rabobank | 3
Phonak | 2
Discovery Channel | 2
Bouygues Telecom | 2
Davitamon-Lotto | 2
Euskaltel-Euskadi | 2
Agritubel | 2
Crédit Agricole | 1
Cofidis | 1
Milram | 1

What that tells me is Evans is unlikely to win. He doesn't have support.
Leipheimer looks a better bet, despite personally lagging 5'39" on GC.
Kloden isn't out of it - he's only 2'29" back on GC and has a strong
team (although they stuffed up their strategy a bit today). Landis is
short on support, with only Axel Merckx in the clubhouse after twenty
minutes; so I don't think he'll keep the jersey.

Lampre aren't in it despite their '20 minute' strength; their best on GC
is Tadej Valjavec at 9'37" back, but Damiano is 16 minutes adrift (and
was ten minutes down today). Likewise Saunier Duval: plenty of
reasonable climbers but, as in the Giro, Simoni can't stay with Sastre
when the road kicks up (I personally think SDV should have promoted
Piepoli to team leader for this one - he was quite obviously in better
form than Simoni in the Giro).

My personal - sentimental - bet is still on Sastre. Not because I think
he's most likely to win, the team has lost two of its strongest riders;
but because his win would give me, personally, most pleasure. Most
likely, now? Very tough call. Probably Menchov. But only if Rabobank
focus on him and ignore Rasmussen's spotty ambitions.

Boogerd was awesome.

--
simon@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

'Victories are not solutions.'
;; John Hume, Northern Irish politician, on Radio Scotland 1/2/95
;; Nobel Peace Prize laureate 1998; few have deserved it so much