TDF '04 contenders

alicem

Ohhh, juicy thread with loads of scope for thought on many topics! Very interesting indeed. Problem is this site is so massive (a great thing but not for a blonde like me) that I keep getting lost so am def subscribing to read all of this at a later date and the other that you mentioned Patch!

Ciao tutti

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Dazzle

Ullrich 1st - will have a very hard national tour and will come into form in Swiss Tour
Armstrong - wont have a bad day, but will lack his top power. Maybe 2nd
Hamilton & Mayo would be my other possible picks. Would like to see Hamilton get through without injury - definite podium. Vino will be too nice to Ullrich - about 6th

kerank

Ullrich doesn't ride L-B-L due to lack of form... I don't know about you guys, but this seems a little suspicious to me. Would the team really make this anouncement to the world if it were true? Maybe he's "sand-bagging" a little to get Armstrong and others to relax their training. It's never too soon for tactics in the TDF.

I hope Armstrong wins. I don't know him, and have never met him. After reading his books and watching over the last few years, he seems like a hard person to get along with (although, he has seemed to mellow recently). His story is such an inspiring one, and gives many people with a terrible disease hope. For this reason alone, I hope he wins 2 more.

traxnseq

interesting point; but please remember that there is a tradition every year about ullrich: weight, shape, preparation....
every year the same stories and no one really give him a chance to be in a good condition for the tour; BUT he never finished the Tour worst then 2nd.....
I am quite sure that this year he prepared himself like never before (and for the condition and for the mind) and there is no reason to worry about his recent races, the time is just not right so far; German Tour and Tour de Suisse will really be a final stage before the tour and he will show up on both before explosing at the Tour de France.....

Trekker2017

I'm a newbie so if this is a dumb question, I appolgize... has there ever been a (for the want of a better phraze) tripple crown winner? I mean has anyone ever won all of the major tours in one year? Is it even possible? With all the hoopla over the TDF maybe it's time for the fans to demand something more from the athletes and the sponsors.

keydates

The "Triple Crown of Cycling" consists of winning the Tour de France, Giro d'Italia, and World Cycling Championship in one year. Only two people have done it: Eddy Merckx (1974) and Stephen Roche (1987).

http://www.informationblast.com/Tri...of_Cycling.html

limerickman

I think you question was directed at winning the Giro, TDF and Vuelta - in one season.

The triple crown - as Keydates rightly points out is what is referred to as the Triple Crown.

No one has managed to win all three majour tours in one season.
Merckx came closest in 1969.

patch70

Some of Merckx's greatest years:
1970: Giro & Tour double
1971: Tour & Worlds double
1972: Giro & Tour wins plus 4th in Worlds
1973: Giro & Vuelta wins plus 4th in Worlds
1974: Triple Crown!

What a freak!

limerickman, I know he won the Tour in 1969 but did not get podium for the other two Grand Tours. How close was he to the Triple Grand Tour in that year?

timdodge

july will be a nailbiter, for sure... lance is on record as saying he only has eyes on first place. if one (or more) other riders could put some real pressure on him, then i think he would try to make a "statement" and either succeed, or knock himself out from trying. either way, it would be first place or nothing.

the trick this year, like the last several, will be for other riders to consistently attack lance and the blue train. in the mountains there will be plenty of riders to do this: jan, vino, tyler, roberto, etc. depending on the gc, lance may not be able to let many of these attacks go unanswered without risking his position. but by responding, he may have to dig too deep opening the door for someone to make headway. the key will be for the posties to keep the heat on and minimize the likelihood of any attack succeeding. but if three or four other teams are coordinated, it may be too much to defend.

my last point (for now) is that there seems to be a general belief that lance is vulnerable, given his showing last year. everyone will be looking for weakness. on the other hand, if lance can show his strength early, the rest of the peloton may begin to fight for 2nd place. the mind games and strategy will be something to watch.

limerickman

Yes, it will be a combination of issues which could dethrone LA.
The person who is to beat LA will have to cycle like never before.

But I think it's curious that the likes of Hincapie etc have had a
relatively quiet year compared with prior years when LA won the
TDF.
Hincapie identified several classics which he had specifically targetted for a podium position this year - but his performances this year
were way off his performances in prior years in the classics.
Heras has also left USPS too.
So I think USPS are slightly weaker this year, compared to prior years.

Is LA the same cyclist as before ?
Personally, I think that he is not as dominant but this doesn't mean that the rest of the peloton has closed in on him either.

Granted his form has been very good so far this season.
But Big Migs form was excellent as he went for his 6th title too !

I just hope that this years TDF is half as good as last years !

Powerful Pete

I voted for Simoni. Am Italian, no choice really!

But then again, he was clearly in far less brilliant shape than for the Giro last year, when he rode away from the (albeit limited) competition. He has obviously changed his training programme to be able to not lose 20 minutes in every mountain stage in the Tour this year.

He has not won the Giro, and is much hungrier.... Ok, I do not really think he has a chance in hell, but I am hoping for a more dignified performance than in 2003. Maybe a top ten?

And no one has yet voted for Basso, on CSC with a very good coach... anyone think he can make the podium?

All wishful thinking, I know...

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patch70

I would give Basso a reasonable chance of a top 5 finish. It seems everything CSC touches turns to gold this year and if he remains their leader, I would certainly give him a chance.

Team Phonak also have been showing some decent form which bodes well for Hamilton getting to the podium if he can stay upright.

I agree Simoni will be hungrier after the Giro but his time trialling is just not strong enough.

Mayo (& Zubeldia) look to be in reasonable form too. But a yellow jersey with orange shorts is probably too ugly for the organisers to sope with.

Roy Gardiner

I suspect you mean at least half as good which would make it fine indeed; but I think we're in for one of the best ever.

- if all, or at least most, of the major and minor favourites can avoid the series of stupid injuries that mucked it up last year
- if Ullrich does hit full form; with T-Mobile behind him, look out.

Can't wait.

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Roy Gardiner, Hainault Roads Club

oneradtec

I think Juan Miguel Mercado will finish ahead of many names on the list...so perhaps he should have atleast been included on the list. I'm not sure he's ready yet..perhaps he needs another year or so but I've heard some say that he is a future grand tour winner with incredible talent and potential. One journalist even went so far as to say he was a future 5 tour winner. Wow! He's a bit young though..I think he's 26. I think Indurain was 28 when he won his first TDF. 5 tours might be a real stretch...but he does have some big potential. I'm from North Carolina..and I remember how many players came to University of NC after Michael Jordan left..and were claimed to be the next 'Micheal Jordan'...most of them though played a few years at the scchool..graduated...were not drafted...and fell into anonymity.

I give Mercado a chance for a very impressive top 5. You never know....No one woulda thought Zubeldia last year.