The Next 5 Time Tour de France Champion

philoakley

It could be years before we see another five time winner but I agree with gntlmn that Cunego has time on his side. He will have to improve his time trialing but he looks the best talent for the future. I am not sure about Karpets. He definitely has the stamina for a three week tour but seems to be an average time trialist and climber. He could be another a Mancebo.

It is interesting that apart from Ulrich, we haven't had a young rider win the Tour since Fignon in 1983. Both Indurain and Armstrong were late developers in terms of the tour and did not come up against strong competition year after year. I don't see any super TT/mountain men coming through at the moment which will make for very interesting Tours when Armstrong decides to stop but will probably result in a reasonable wait for the next 5 timer.

Capt.Injury

Somebody im surprise no one mentioned already is V. Karpets who won the White Jersey. HE did very well in the Time Trials.

I find it impossible for anyone to even try and predict a 5-time winner, because you can never predict injuries, lost of desire, and so many factors that doesn't even include actual performance in the races.

craigstanton

Hi Capt,

Welcome to the strand on convo. Check above. Both points have already been made.

Capt.Injury

Ok ok, so i was about 4 hours behind, Give me a break. SO I miss one once and a while

Craig Walsh

How old is Jose Azevedo? A domestique for Lance and came fifth overall if a pretty good effort.

I would say it will be out of Cunego or Karpets, but then again it could be anybody.

IMO to win one Tour you are pretty good rider, to win three you are something special, and to win 5 you deserve your spot among the greats.

kuhlpinkdash

DOes anyone else think it odd that 5 seems to be some sort of standard champions amount, (obviously Lance does not fit, but i'll call him an outlier)..

What I'm trying to say is, is there some type of cyclical thing going on?
I dont know how many people have won four or three tours...but i'm sure its not a pyrimidical pattern (i know thats not a word by the way) ie decreasing winners of a greater amount of tours...

Why would alll these great men win the same amount? (ignoring outside effects such as drunk french mike tyson types)

Surely its not just that the best cyclists are only at their peak for 5 years...surely it would be different for all, some longer and some shorter?

Any ideas?

Gelli

Impossible to say - it may not be 20 or 30 years or even longer before it happens again, if it even does.
Since the race has become more "professional?" and the focus of peoples seasons as opposed to just a big race in a season, none of the young riders have done that well, and haven't gone on to win either - several have faided into complete obscurity, others have just not done allot and kept progressing. The demands are just different.

Azevedo is 31 (think) so unlikely to be a 5time winner; Menchov or Karpets are possible, Cunego is the obvious one and Basso is improving every year and is still young, whilst Sevilla is still young enough to have a chance as well. Other possibilities could include people like Valverde (think he's a huge talent), Popyvich (will he be groomed as LA's Tour replacement now he's joined Disco??), Cadel Evans, Nozal, Mike Rogers, Thomas Lövkvist etc might all do something, Cancellara as well. And Zubeldia isn't that old and can time trial reasonably as well.

gntlmn

I'm beginning to wonder about Armstrong, but he seems to always be full of surprises and then manages to come out on top in the end. I read an article in "The Statesman", an Austin,Texas paper, this morning, and he was quoted as saying he doesn't have the Tour on his mind at all right now contrary to the way he was 12 months ago. It said Tour victory and preparation were on his mind last year from the moment he stepped off the podium in Paris. He doesn't have that attitude now. In fact, he won't decide for several months whether he will even ride the Tour in 2005.

Is he going to pull an Ullrich on us? With this attitude, if he's not putting us on, he won't win in such dominating fashion in 2005 as he did in 2004, if he wins at all.

gntlmn

At Lance's Tour de France victory celebration in Austin on Friday, he spoke briefly of his future. I wonder if we should give Popyvich more weight in this 5 time discussion. Here's a quote from the following MSNBC article.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5700182/

“It would make me very proud to be able to retire and stay involved in a program and continue to win the Tour with somebody else,” he said. “Use my experience and time on a bike to help another person.”

He suggested Ukrainian standout Yaroslav Popovych could be that rider. Popovych recently signed a three-year deal with Armstrong’s newly sponsored Discovery Channel team.

“We think he’s a rider of the future in the Tour de France,” Armstrong said. “We think it’s tough right now to find another American to win the Tour. We think we have strong Americans who can contend or win stages, but we need to find someone who can win the Tour. At 24 years old ... we think he’s that guy.”

Popovych has two top-five finishes in the Giro d’Italia (2003-2004).

Armstrong didn’t say if he will race the Tour de France in either of the next two years. For now, he is thinking about focusing on other races in 2005.

Craig Walsh

So is LA hinting he may do a Hinault and help another rider win it, like Hinault did to Lemond in 1986?

babylou

I didn't know stabbing someone in the back was considered help.

gntlmn

The way I took those comments he made was entirely different. I interpreted those to mean that he was going to help in some support fashion but not by being a rider in that race. I was thinking he is considering being involved in a racing team as a member of the staff, somehow sharing his knowledge to further the next racer's objectives of winning. My guess is that he may want to be a coach or team director sometime in the future, after he quits racing. But that's reading things into what he said, which wasn't much. He's still being a bit vague about his own riding schedule for next year.

Craig Walsh

I believe he is contracted to next year's Tour whether he wants to or not.

He has mentioned stuff about the World Hour Record and some of the other Spring Tome Classics, so I would like to see him compete in say Paris-Nice, or the Giro, Milan-San remo (I know he has done it before) etc.

Roadrash Dunc

Sounds like Popyvich has a bright future , but this years young jersey winner does too , Karpets.

Next few years i predict lots of single wins , its possible we havent even seen the next multi-tour winner yet.
Kloden have a shot at it?