Ullrich's Intentions

limerickman

I can see the basis of your question – why shouldn’t JU attack and attack each and every stage ?

The TDF in recent years has adopted the tactic of minimizing time lost in the first few stages and then hoping that if there is a weakness amongst the major contenders on GC,
that this weakness will be exposed in the high mountains.
More often than not, it is JU who wilts before LA does, in the mountains.
There is some validity in thinking that perhaps a different tactical approach might work for JU against LA.
Perhaps.
But JU is aware that in this years TDF, LA has now also got TH to contend with (whereas last year, LA had really only had JU to consider as a possible challenger)
JU may be keeping his powder dry in the expectation that sooner or later TH will have to start going for GC against LA and that in doing so, JU might just be able to benefit if TH puts up a tough enough challenge.
JU could find himself being overhauled by TH, in the event of his (TH’s) challenge to LA.

There is still over two weeks to go in the TDF – a lot can happen in that time frame.
But yes, the window of opportunity reduces the longer JU (and TH) refrain from attacking outright, LA.

musette

There just aren't that many opportunities for time gains on flat stages, if you are a major contender like JU and other major GC contenders' teams are going to watch you closely. I don't think JU is missing opportunities -- there are fewer opportunities in this phase of the TdF. Also, note that JU also knows LA has a stronger team who can control the peloton extremely effectively.

LA has a wasted spot with Zabel. A problem-ridden rider and not too dependable rider in Santiago Botero. He has his buddies that he likes to ride with. But, if JU needed to distance himself from LA on the flats, how is he going to do that?

DeRosa_AV

There is no point in attacking LA in these early stages USP would just chase everything down. It will be won in the mountains and ITT. I think mayo may well be the wild card now he is so far down on GC and has nothing to lose by being agressive, TH and JU benefit because USP will be weaker in having to defend the lead. A couple of really hot days for the TT and JU could be in business, Armstrongs ability to quickly change pace on the mountain TT will not give him any advantage.

limerickman

I agree with Musette and De Rosa - effectively there is no point in attacking on the flat stages for JU.
However I can see that the usual tactics of waiting for the mountains and for one of the GC candidates to crack tactics, has not worked for JU in the past either.

It's a quandry - I think the ommission of Cadel Evans and the inclusion of Zabel has effectively tied one hand behind JU's back.

DiabloScott

This is going to be the most tactically interesting Tours in a long time. There are so many people who can and will attack, each with their own strengths, none of them can afford to just wait and react - they'll have to make their own race. I think we'll see some pretty creative moves, and while the favorites are marking each other the spoilers will be forcing their hands. The stage to La Mongie looks like the official ringing of the bell.

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Cam the Ram

I think Armstrong has a lot to worry about with Tyler Hamilton as well. Hamilton has been a team member of USPS, so he knows the team tactics, and most important, I am sure he knows Armstrong has weaknesses. I think Hamilton is the best chance of Ullrich winning the race. If Hamilton can mess Armstrong up enough, Ullrich can take advantage.

__________________
"We improve ourselves by victories over ourself. There must be contests, and you must win."

- Edward Gibbon (1737 - 1794)

gntlmn

Those are all good arguments if you are talking about the Armstrong of the 2003 TdF. But this year, he is much stronger. Last year, he had contracted the flu from his kids and had diarrhea for a while. He was noticeably weaker. It's a wonder he pulled out a win at all.

This year, the story is different. People say that he was weak up the Dauphine Libere only 3 weeks before the Tour. Well, the truth is he did his best time. He didn't win this race, but he still did his best time. So unless Tyler and Mayo get a lot better with the rest of the Tour, they aren't going to win anyway. They aren't quite as good at the GC. This is evident by the fact that already they are going to have to play catch up in the mountains. And Lance is no slouch up there either.

And what evidence is there that the others will make it up in the TT's? I don't see any yet. Lance won the prologue, and then USPS won the TTT. So if they have the horsepower, they've been holding back. That's a poor tactic, it seems.

limerickman

Limoges-St Flour next Tuesday looks interesting : five Category 3
climbs, three category 2 climbs and one category 1 climb.
(and I'm doing this in the Etape tomorrow !)

Stage 12 which you refer to is pretty flat until the last climb at
La Mongie.

Randybaker99

This thread has evolved into a more accurate view of what it takes to win at the TdF. All the competitors are too well matched for a GC contender to succeed in any kind of flat course breakaway. Look at the overwhelming advantage that the Peloton has over a breakaway on the flats - between an aerodynamic advantage of about 40% and radio communications; no one is going to succeed at a break unless the leaders allow it. The big sprint teams would have caught Voekler in Stage 5 but USPS effectively shut down the chase to avoid the risk of big crashes.

This race is more like a multiway game of chess, than some sort of brute force slugfest.

Jan's best hope is to try and find a way to latch on to the wheels of some of the strong climbers like Mayo in the mountain stages and try to gain advantage. He has his work cut out for him. Saving his energy right now seems like a pretty good strategy to me.

Cam the Ram

There is no evidence to state that Armstrong is at his best right now. The other day he had a small crash and had his foot ran over. Any rider will tell you, that you can crack even when you are in the best condition.

__________________
"We improve ourselves by victories over ourself. There must be contests, and you must win."

- Edward Gibbon (1737 - 1794)

gntlmn

Not to mention that riding with the yellow jersey has its own set of fatiguing responsibilities--defending it during the race and spending an hour every day in obligatory yellow jersey press conferences. If Armstrong held it into Paris, that would add up to more than ten hours of rest time lost.

Armstrong and company don't want that kind of burden. They want to be on the podium in Paris, not necessarily in between.

musette

Ullrich says in his autobio: "'The outcome of this race will determine how I will be remembered,' Ullrich said in his autobiography published before the Tour. 'Either as a gifted talent who made life difficult for himself, but always managed to pull things together to succeed in the end, or as a sloppy genius who wasn't capable of using his exceptional talent.'"

Cam the Ram

Well I think that sort of talk from Ullrich in his autobiography means he is not settling this year. I couldn't imagine the frustration he is going through with his other Tour performances. It takes a lot of guts for him to still be riding for 1st place. He does look like he kept his weight down this year in the winter months, and people have always said he was the strongest rider in the Tour. We (Ullrich supporters) can only hope for the best...

__________________
"We improve ourselves by victories over ourself. There must be contests, and you must win."

- Edward Gibbon (1737 - 1794)

Cam the Ram

I also think Armstrong is either scared of Ullrich or knows Ullrich is a talented rider just like himself. In a lot of the press gatherings, Armstrong always puts Ullrich ahead of Hamilton, Heras, and Mayo.

__________________
"We improve ourselves by victories over ourself. There must be contests, and you must win."

- Edward Gibbon (1737 - 1794)