RvV

Jeff Jones

"Benjamin Weiner" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> wrote in message
news:40710709$1@darkstar...
> steve robertson <not.really@texus.net> wrote:
>
> Then Hoste handed Wesemann a gift by chasing down Bruylandts's
> attack in the final km. Not sure why (perhaps rather chase down
> a rival Belgian team, damn the consequences?) or why Wesemann
> didn't react to Bruylandts right away (perhaps he sussed that
> Hoste would go for rivalry reasons, or because Hoste had been
> sitting on? Too complicated.) Chung, you really need to write
> up that study of game theory in cycling.
>
I don't think it was rivalry. I think Hoste was feeling "fresh" and was also
relatively inexperienced in this sort of a situation. Wesemann was smarter,
although I think he still would have won had he chased down Bruylandts
himself.

Jeff

Robert Chung

Benjamin Weiner wrote:
> Chung, you really need to write
> up that study of game theory in cycling.

Yeah, right. 'Cuz, but for one or two notable exceptions, there's been a
recent dearth of truly sphincter-tightening posts on rbr.

Besides, I'm sorta stuck on the title. Here are two candidates:
1. Selten, Harsanyi, and extreme payoffs: collusion and reneging in the
world of professional cycling.
2. Last but N to fuck your buddy wins.

BTW, a tantalizing finding from some of the experimental game theory stuff
is that reneging (or cheating, or back-stabbing, or fuck-your-buddy-ing)
is more common when you're desperately trying to avoid the wolves at the
door than when you're dominant. The application to doping behavior is left
to the reader as a gedanken experiment.

h squared

Jeff Jones wrote:
>
> "Benjamin Weiner" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> wrote in message
> news:40710709$1@darkstar...
> > steve robertson <not.really@texus.net> wrote:
> >
> > Then Hoste handed Wesemann a gift by chasing down Bruylandts's
> > attack in the final km. Not sure why (perhaps rather chase down
> > a rival Belgian team, damn the consequences?) or why Wesemann
> > didn't react to Bruylandts right away (perhaps he sussed that
> > Hoste would go for rivalry reasons, or because Hoste had been
> > sitting on? Too complicated.) Chung, you really need to write
> > up that study of game theory in cycling.
> >
> I don't think it was rivalry. I think Hoste was feeling "fresh" and was also
> relatively inexperienced in this sort of a situation. Wesemann was smarter,
> although I think he still would have won had he chased down Bruylandts
> himself.

i'm a terrible observer, but it looked to me like hoste did wait a bit
for wessemann to chase, but maybe when he didn't, hoste didn't want to
just give up his chance for a win. i don't see what bruylandts has to
complain about really. even though hoste spent all day in front and then
chased him down, hoste still beat him (unless he just gave up trying
after hoste chased him down, but then he needs a spanking)

i like hoste's quote on cyclingnews- "I had spent all day in front and I
had Van Petegem and Van Bon behind me. They were the top men and me the
helper. I'm happy with my second place and had a real super day."

h

Ewoud Dronkert

On Mon, 05 Apr 2004 11:00:55 GMT, h squared wrote:
> it looked to me like hoste did wait a bit
> for wessemann to chase, but maybe when he didn't, hoste didn't want to
> just give up his chance for a win. i don't see what bruylandts has to
> complain about really.

Like he said, the fastest guy should normally close the gap, and
certainly now that Wesemann left it himself: W challenged him and Hoste
folded. You can read elsewhere that Wesemann received info on his 2
breakaway partners: "Don't worry!" so he was definitely bluffing.
Unnecessary even.

> even though hoste spent all day in front and then
> chased him down, hoste still beat him (unless he just gave up trying
> after hoste chased him down, but then he needs a spanking)

Bruylandts is the worst sprinter ever. He's the original strijkijzer.

Tom Kunich

"Benjamin Weiner" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> wrote in message
news:40710709$1@darkstar...
> steve robertson <not.really@texus.net> wrote:
>
> > >Lotto seemed to be playing the Van Bon card, by not having Hoste work
in
> > >front. But not having Van Bon work behind defeated the purpose
somewhat.
> > >Andreas Klier is pretty handy too - he won Gent Wevelgem in 2003.
>
> > yeah, when I read on the Cyclingnews live report that Hoste
> > was not working because Van Bon was behind and that Van Bon
> > was not working because Hoste was in front, I was a bit
> > perplexed.
>
> Then Hoste handed Wesemann a gift by chasing down Bruylandts's
> attack in the final km.

It was clear that Hoste either chaced Bruylandts down or it was Dave's win.
Wesseman knew that he simply could not chace Dave and win the sprint.
Steffen performed like a genius.

> Not sure why (perhaps rather chase down
> a rival Belgian team, damn the consequences?)

No, because he was on a different team - that's why their jerseys were
different colors. What is with this helping a countryman thing? Would you
give away a race to someone from your home state if you might have a chance
to win it yourself?

Ewoud Dronkert

On 5 Apr 2004 10:07:09 -0800, Benjamin Weiner wrote:
> You see the Spanish teams lead the chase of each other's
> riders all the time, for example.

That is often because of the high value Spanish teams place on team
classification. I have heard them say it is as important as the
individual.

Benjamin Weiner

Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote:
> "Benjamin Weiner" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> wrote in message
> > Then Hoste handed Wesemann a gift by chasing down Bruylandts's
> > attack in the final km.

> It was clear that Hoste either chaced Bruylandts down or it was Dave's win.
> Wesseman knew that he simply could not chace Dave and win the sprint.
> Steffen performed like a genius.

Dumbass,

He did ride smartly, but in the finale, Wesemann was the strongest
and had the most to lose. That's why Hoste could have waited a
fraction of a second, requiring Wesemann to chase. That's my point.
Wese probably could have chased down Bruylandts and still won anyway -
after all Hoste had been in the break all day.

> > Not sure why (perhaps rather chase down
> > a rival Belgian team, damn the consequences?)

> No, because he was on a different team - that's why their jerseys were
> different colors. What is with this helping a countryman thing? Would you
> give away a race to someone from your home state if you might have a chance
> to win it yourself?

Dumbass,

I don't really believe that scenario, and Jeff Jones has refuted it,
but I said the opposite of what you're replying to. You see the Spanish
teams lead the chase of each other's riders all the time, for
example. Rivalries are stronger between teams from the same country,
if only because commentators will say things like "Lotto is having a
good year, Domo is a disappointment" etc.

Amit

h squared <peckledoggyremovetoreply@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:<40713C68.C6E0AF18@hotmail.com>...
> Jeff Jones wrote:
> >
> > "Benjamin Weiner" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> wrote in message
> > news:40710709$1@darkstar...
> > > steve robertson <not.really@texus.net> wrote:
> > >
> > > Then Hoste handed Wesemann a gift by chasing down Bruylandts's
> > > attack in the final km. Not sure why (perhaps rather chase down
> > > a rival Belgian team, damn the consequences?) or why Wesemann
> > > didn't react to Bruylandts right away (perhaps he sussed that
> > > Hoste would go for rivalry reasons, or because Hoste had been
> > > sitting on? Too complicated.) Chung, you really need to write
> > > up that study of game theory in cycling.
> > >
> > I don't think it was rivalry. I think Hoste was feeling "fresh" and was also
> > relatively inexperienced in this sort of a situation. Wesemann was smarter,
> > although I think he still would have won had he chased down Bruylandts
> > himself.
>
> i'm a terrible observer, but it looked to me like hoste did wait a bit
> for wessemann to chase, but maybe when he didn't, hoste didn't want to
> just give up his chance for a win. i don't see what bruylandts has to
> complain about really.

You're still a better observer than Kunich.

Hoste was sitting on the whole way, not even soft pedalling through.
When Bruylandts pulled off Hoste actually pushed Bruylandts ahead of
him.

> even though hoste spent all day in front and then
> chased him down, hoste still beat him (unless he just gave up trying
> after hoste chased him down, but then he needs a spanking)
>

If you attack with a kilo to go and you can still sprint when you're
caught then you need to upgrade.

-Amit

Jeff Jones

"Ewoud Dronkert" <me@privacy.net> wrote in message
news:kj43705f36r6tk15n4nt4crbvfa8tck2p5@4ax.com...
> On 5 Apr 2004 10:07:09 -0800, Benjamin Weiner wrote:
> > You see the Spanish teams lead the chase of each other's
> > riders all the time, for example.
>
> That is often because of the high value Spanish teams place on team
> classification. I have heard them say it is as important as the
> individual.

It is (or used to be) in the grand tours, 'cos the team that wins gets an
invite to next year's.

Back to the topic, there's no personal rivalry between Hoste and Bruylandts,
who were roomates when they were in Domo. And Wesemann (who did hesitate
first) had a number of things in his favour: he was the quickest; he knew
that Hoste wasn't as experienced and had relatively fresh legs, and would
probably be happy to get second. It was smart riding, as I think Wesemann
was on the front when Bruylandts attacked, so Hoste would realise that
Wesemann wouldn't react.

Summary: I don't think Hoste could have won, no matter what he did. Only
Bruylandts or Wesemann.

Bruylandts was hoping that Hoste would realise this (that he could only get
second) and not chase him down because then there'd be a Belgian victory
rather than a German one. But I don't think Hoste had that in mind.

Jeff (there's way too much second guessing here, which qualifies 100 percent
for an RBR analysis)

Ewoud Dronkert

On Tue, 6 Apr 2004 04:20:19 +1000, Jeff Jones wrote:
>> high value Spanish teams place on team classification.
>
> It is (or used to be) in the grand tours,

Right, that's what I meant.

> 'cos the team that wins gets an invite to next year's.

I think there's more to it than that; they place an intrinsic value on
team ranking that we (Dutch, Belgian, but more general probably:
non-Spanish...) just don't understand.

Stewart Fleming

Robert Chung wrote:
> Benjamin Weiner wrote:
>
>>Chung, you really need to write
>>up that study of game theory in cycling.
>
>
> Yeah, right. 'Cuz, but for one or two notable exceptions, there's been a
> recent dearth of truly sphincter-tightening posts on rbr.
>
> Besides, I'm sorta stuck on the title. Here are two candidates:
> 1. Selten, Harsanyi, and extreme payoffs: collusion and reneging in the
> world of professional cycling.

Speaking of payoffs, was it just a bad translation or did Paolo Bettini
really say "I paid cash for that [the chase] in the last 20km"?

Tom Kunich

"Benjamin Weiner" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> wrote in message
news:4071923d$1@darkstar...
> Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > "Benjamin Weiner" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org> wrote in message
> > > Then Hoste handed Wesemann a gift by chasing down Bruylandts's
> > > attack in the final km.
>
> > It was clear that Hoste either chaced Bruylandts down or it was Dave's
win.
> > Wesseman knew that he simply could not chace Dave and win the sprint.
> > Steffen performed like a genius.
>
> He did ride smartly, but in the finale, Wesemann was the strongest
> and had the most to lose. That's why Hoste could have waited a
> fraction of a second, requiring Wesemann to chase. That's my point.
> Wese probably could have chased down Bruylandts and still won anyway -
> after all Hoste had been in the break all day.

Ten more seconds and Wesemann couldn't have caught Bruylandts. It was a big
gamble on Steffen's part because if he had gone first Hoste could have put
that same effort into a long sprint to the line and Wesemann would have been
SOL. When Hoste dug in and chased down Dave, he was putting in some evil
power to those pedals.

> > > Not sure why (perhaps rather chase down
> > > a rival Belgian team, damn the consequences?)
>
> > No, because he was on a different team - that's why their jerseys were
> > different colors. What is with this helping a countryman thing? Would
you
> > give away a race to someone from your home state if you might have a
chance
> > to win it yourself?
>
> I don't really believe that scenario, and Jeff Jones has refuted it,
> but I said the opposite of what you're replying to. You see the Spanish
> teams lead the chase of each other's riders all the time, for
> example. Rivalries are stronger between teams from the same country,
> if only because commentators will say things like "Lotto is having a
> good year, Domo is a disappointment" etc.

I'll let our Belgian friends put in a comment here. But you should remember
what happened a couple of years ago when the Belgian teams allowed their own
personal vedettas between rival Belgian teams to become more important than
the races they were in.

Tom Kunich

"Amit" <amit@physics.utoronto.ca> wrote in message
news:df5bdaa0.0404051007.51d2337f@posting.google.com...
> h squared <peckledoggyremovetoreply@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:<40713C68.C6E0AF18@hotmail.com>...
> >
> > i'm a terrible observer, but it looked to me like hoste did wait a bit
> > for wessemann to chase, but maybe when he didn't, hoste didn't want to
> > just give up his chance for a win. i don't see what bruylandts has to
> > complain about really.
>
> You're still a better observer than Kunich.
>
> Hoste was sitting on the whole way, not even soft pedalling through.
> When Bruylandts pulled off Hoste actually pushed Bruylandts ahead of
> him.

I have heard anyone here say anything about "the look" that Steffen gave
Hoste which clearly said, "I ain't chasing". Is that because you're all so
observant?

h squared

Ewoud Dronkert wrote:

> strijkijzer.

i'm learning dutch right and left on this group lately. my dictionary
says flat iron, but is there more to it than that?

( also, a belgian girl this morning on a hair styling and makeup group
taught me "ronde van frankrijk" for the tour de france. she also said
that even if you aren't into bike racing, (like she isn't, boohoo), if
you live in belgium you know about the ronde van vlaanderen, same way as
if you live in the usa, you know about the superbowl. but she said that
soccer is still more popular than bike racing. )

heather