Who Is Favoured In The Tour De France ?

David Kerber

In article <c2352af0.0404220948.264abf1e@posting.google.com>,
ackthpt@concentric.net says...

....

> > > There is a big difference in being in good shape and being a Tour
> > > champion. Heras has no chance to win this year or any other year. Some
> > > of you people just don't get it. You have to be a truly great rider to
> > > win the Tour. Merckx was great, Indurian was great, Lemond was great,
> > > Lance is great, Heras... not so great.
> >
> > I agree, Heras has a shot at the mountain goat jersey, but not the
> > overall. He's just not strong enough in the TT's.
>
>
> Did I miss something? Did they take the mountain time trial out of
> the 2004 TdF?

No, but I temporarily forgot about it.


> In case anyone missed it, Manolo "Venga Venga Venga" Saiz has happened
> to turn out some decent TTT results and the team still has solid
> talent to keep a leader out of trouble in the flat stages. Heras has
> done some excellent TT riding, not first place stuff, but not far
> enough down to hurt him if he piles some time on in the mountains.

He's going to have to pile up a lot of time advantage in the mountains,
and I don't think he can do that against Lance, who is better than Heras
is in the flat TT's. Of course I realize that it's really the team who
does it for their leader in the flat stages.


> They may have lost Azevedo, but they're no longer burdened by
> supporting Beloki who couldn't match Heras in the mountains.


--
Remove the ns_ from if replying by e-mail (but keep posts in the
newsgroups if possible).

Sonarrat

buzz_macdonald@hotmail.com (Buzz) wrote in message news:<dd4ec770.0404220613.5e5d1505@posting.google.com>...
> Richard Adams <ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote in message news:<c677o2$oo@dispatch.concentric.net>...
> > Sonarrat wrote:
> >
> > > in article VKEhc.21950$CO3.961908@news20.bellglobal.com, Gunny Bunny at
> > > none@none.com wrote on 4/21/04 6:01 PM:
> > >
> > >
> > >>I heard Lance Armstrong is no longer the favourite !
> > >
> > >
> > > Iban Mayo.
> > >
> > > -Sonarrat.
> > >
> >
> > After reviewing Mayo's sterling performance in 2002, I'm think he peaked
> > last year. Vino should be a threat if he wasn't working for Ullrich.
> > Heras has been rather uneven, but if he's in good shape and Liberty
> > Seguros is sharp he's probably the bigger danger. He's usually ready to
> > turn it up on the first mountain stage, before Lance has his climbing
> > legs ticking over.
>
> There is a big difference in being in good shape and being a Tour
> champion.

And what would that be?? Is the object not still to get to the finish
line having spent less time on the road than everybody else? I fail
to see why you have to be mythological about it...

-Sonarrat.

Richard Adams

"Jeff Jones" <jeff@cyclingnews-punt-com> wrote in message news:<4087fa2a$0$11080$a0ced6e1@news.skynet.be>...
> "G.T." <getnews1@dslextreme.com> wrote in message
> news:mYRhc.25198$Ze.18880@newssvr27.news.prodigy.com...
> >
> > "Harris" <aharris@bookworm.suffolk.lib.ny.us> wrote in message
> > news:YyPhc.3104$WC3.27778@ord-read.news.verio.net...
> > > In rec.bicycles.tech Gunny Bunny <none@none.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > > I heard Lance Armstrong is no longer the favourite !
> > >
> > > Well, Ullrich certainly isn't.
> > >
> > > http://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news?slu...uters&type=lgns
> > >
> >
> > Never underestimate the power of misinformation.
> >
> What's wrong with that report? If you saw Ullrich racing in Fleche
> yesterday, you would realise that it would be pointless for him to start
> LBL. He doesn't have anything like the condition he had last year at this
> time.
>
> Jeff


It's those frites with mayonnaise and pitchers of Stella. Sure does
me in, just thinking about it.

Kevin Metcalfe

sonarrat@stormloader.com (Sonarrat) wrote in message news:<21429691.0404221222.35dd8952@posting.google.com>...
> buzz_macdonald@hotmail.com (Buzz) wrote in message news:<dd4ec770.0404220613.5e5d1505@posting.google.com>...
> > Richard Adams <ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote in message news:<c677o2$oo@dispatch.concentric.net>...
> >
> > There is a big difference in being in good shape and being a Tour
> > champion.
>
> And what would that be?? Is the object not still to get to the finish
> line having spent less time on the road than everybody else? I fail
> to see why you have to be mythological about it...

Tour champions take control of the race at it's most important
moments. Those most important moments are not necessarily the place
and time of your choosing. That means that even if Heras shows up as
a better climber than Lance this year, he still might not win. Can
Heras out climb Lance more than Lance can out TT Heras? What about if
the pack shatters in a cross wind in the flats? And even if Heras
beats Lance in the 15km Alpe d'Huez time trial, do you think it will
be by enough to make up for the drubbing he's going to take in the
flat 60km ITT three days later?

You have to be a tremendous climber to win the Tour. Yet, skinny
little pure climbers rarely ever win. That's not an accident or fate.
It's just a matter of fact that skinny little climbers don't often
have the whole package to win the tour any more than a pure sprinter
does. It's just that their specialty means they lose less time than
sprinters.

The only riders I think have the talent to beat an on form Armstrong
in the Tour are Ullrich and Vandenbrouke. Unfortunately, Vandenbrouke
has not followed a very steady path and I think it is past him now.
Ullrich? He's got some work ahead of him. Hamilton? Not quite.

Tour winners are able to find their moment and slaughter the
opposition. Going backwards in time:

2003 - Armstrong at Luz Ardiden
2002 - Armstrong in the Pyrenees and Ventoux
2001 - Armstrong at Alpe d'Huez (Hey aren't they climbing that this
year?)
2000 - Armstrong at Hautacam
1999 - Armstrong at Seistriere
1998 - Pantani at Plateau de Beille
1997 - Ullrich at Andorre-Arcalis
1996 - Riis at Sestrieres and Hautacam
1995 - Indurain at Liège and La Plagne (sure Zuelle won the stage...)
1992 - 1994 Indurain - the "Extraterrestiral TT", Hautacam, and
probably others I can't remember.
1990 - Lemond to St. Entienne and Luz Arididen. Didn't win either
stage but took nearly 10 minutes back from Chiapucci in two big
chunks.
1989 - Lemond - Champs-Elysées
1983 - Fignon - all over the place

So where is Heras or Beloki or Mayo going to make the big kill that
remotely resembles any of the ones listed above?

Kevin Metcalfe
nslckevin@yahoo.com
Pleasant Hill, CA

Sonarrat

in article 71b8fc58.0404221908.664ce335@posting.google.com, Kevin Metcalfe
at nslckevin@yahoo.com wrote on 4/22/04 8:08 PM:

> sonarrat@stormloader.com (Sonarrat) wrote in message
> news:<21429691.0404221222.35dd8952@posting.google.com>...
>> buzz_macdonald@hotmail.com (Buzz) wrote in message
>> news:<dd4ec770.0404220613.5e5d1505@posting.google.com>...
>>> Richard Adams <ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote in message
>>> news:<c677o2$oo@dispatch.concentric.net>...
>>>
>>> There is a big difference in being in good shape and being a Tour
>>> champion.
>>
>> And what would that be?? Is the object not still to get to the finish
>> line having spent less time on the road than everybody else? I fail
>> to see why you have to be mythological about it...
>
> Tour champions take control of the race at it's most important
> moments. Those most important moments are not necessarily the place
> and time of your choosing. That means that even if Heras shows up as
> a better climber than Lance this year, he still might not win. Can
> Heras out climb Lance more than Lance can out TT Heras? What about if
> the pack shatters in a cross wind in the flats? And even if Heras
> beats Lance in the 15km Alpe d'Huez time trial, do you think it will
> be by enough to make up for the drubbing he's going to take in the
> flat 60km ITT three days later?
>
> You have to be a tremendous climber to win the Tour. Yet, skinny
> little pure climbers rarely ever win. That's not an accident or fate.
> It's just a matter of fact that skinny little climbers don't often
> have the whole package to win the tour any more than a pure sprinter
> does. It's just that their specialty means they lose less time than
> sprinters.
>
> The only riders I think have the talent to beat an on form Armstrong
> in the Tour are Ullrich and Vandenbrouke. Unfortunately, Vandenbrouke
> has not followed a very steady path and I think it is past him now.
> Ullrich? He's got some work ahead of him. Hamilton? Not quite.
>
> Tour winners are able to find their moment and slaughter the
> opposition. Going backwards in time:
>
> 2003 - Armstrong at Luz Ardiden
> 2002 - Armstrong in the Pyrenees and Ventoux
> 2001 - Armstrong at Alpe d'Huez (Hey aren't they climbing that this
> year?)
> 2000 - Armstrong at Hautacam
> 1999 - Armstrong at Seistriere
> 1998 - Pantani at Plateau de Beille
> 1997 - Ullrich at Andorre-Arcalis
> 1996 - Riis at Sestrieres and Hautacam
> 1995 - Indurain at Liège and La Plagne (sure Zuelle won the stage...)
> 1992 - 1994 Indurain - the "Extraterrestiral TT", Hautacam, and
> probably others I can't remember.
> 1990 - Lemond to St. Entienne and Luz Arididen. Didn't win either
> stage but took nearly 10 minutes back from Chiapucci in two big
> chunks.
> 1989 - Lemond - Champs-Elysées
> 1983 - Fignon - all over the place
>
> So where is Heras or Beloki or Mayo going to make the big kill that
> remotely resembles any of the ones listed above?

I'll be surprised if Beloki even starts. I'll be even more surprised if he
finishes, and I'll be floored if he comes into Paris anywhere near the
business end of the GC.

Heras has a lot of options. He knows Armstrong's strengths and weaknesses
like the back of his hand (as does Hamilton). All he needs to do is figure
out where to attack... he certainly won't fail to reach the top 10 if he
finishes.

Mayo is talented but inconsistent. Often, when Zubeldia was able to stay
with Armstrong in the mountains, Mayo was really struggling to stay in
contact. He also can't yet time-trial as well as Zubeldia can, and there
are no indications yet that the Euskaltel-Euskadi team is any better than
last year. But he has the grit and tactics to place high in Grand Tours,
and he should only need to ride himself into form over the first week to be
a serious contender.

-Sonarrat.

warren

In article <BCADDBDF.3201%mynick@nospam.hotmail>, Sonarrat
<mynick@nospam.hotmail> wrote:


> Heras has a lot of options. He knows Armstrong's strengths and weaknesses
> like the back of his hand (as does Hamilton).

Heras has only one option and that is to attack on the steep climbs in
the Pyrenees. He has done nothing but follow Armstrong and Rubierra
during the last two Tours and then climb well on 3, maybe four days in
the Pyrenees in all of that time. That is not enough to come close to
beating Armstrong if all is normal.

I doubt that Heras will even beat Armstrong on the Alp d'Huez because
Heras has shown every year that that type of long, not-so-steep climb
does not suit him as well as many other riders in the race.

-WG

Richard Adams

warren wrote:

> In article <BCADDBDF.3201%mynick@nospam.hotmail>, Sonarrat
> <mynick@nospam.hotmail> wrote:
>
>
>
>>Heras has a lot of options. He knows Armstrong's strengths and weaknesses
>>like the back of his hand (as does Hamilton).
>
>
> Heras has only one option and that is to attack on the steep climbs in
> the Pyrenees. He has done nothing but follow Armstrong and Rubierra
> during the last two Tours and then climb well on 3, maybe four days in
> the Pyrenees in all of that time. That is not enough to come close to
> beating Armstrong if all is normal.
>
> I doubt that Heras will even beat Armstrong on the Alp d'Huez because
> Heras has shown every year that that type of long, not-so-steep climb
> does not suit him as well as many other riders in the race.
>
> -WG


Yeah, but Armstrong is only explosive for so long. He can't maintain
those attacks for long and you watch the followers start to reel back time.

Say Armstrong is good for the last 5 Km of a climb and Heras is actually
good for 7 Km. Heras could attack and Lance would either have to let
him go, or burn himself out countering. That mountain TT that Heras did
in the '03 Vuelta was pretty amazing. To be that fast on that kind of
climb after three weeks shows he's a tough little nut.

Robert Chung

Kevin Metcalfe wrote:
>
> The only riders I think have the talent to beat an on form Armstrong
> in the Tour are Ullrich and Vandenbrouke. Unfortunately, Vandenbrouke
> has not followed a very steady path and I think it is past him now.

VDB coulda been a contender. Million dollar legs. Who'd'a thunk they'd be
connected to a $1.98 head?

--Robert Chung,
who thought VDB was going to be the next campionissimo

John Forrest Tomlinson

On 22 Apr 2004 20:08:00 -0700, nslckevin@yahoo.com (Kevin Metcalfe)
wrote:

> What about if
>the pack shatters in a cross wind in the flats?

Heras has never had a problem dealing with those sorts of situations
in grand tours that I'm aware of. And neither has his current team.
In fact, that team has blown the field apart in cross-winds in Spain.

JT

Ewoud Dronkert

On Fri, 23 Apr 2004 08:23:57 +0200, Robert Chung wrote:
> --Robert Chung,
> who thought VDB was going to be the next campionissimo

Aaah, 1999, great year.

Robert Chung

Ewoud Dronkert wrote:
> On Fri, 23 Apr 2004 08:23:57 +0200, Robert Chung wrote:
>> --Robert Chung,
>> who thought VDB was going to be the next campionissimo
>
> Aaah, 1999, great year.

Age UCI_points
21 279
22 986
23 543
24 1391
25 1818 <-- 1999
26 173
27 0
28 0
29 355

Ewoud Dronkert

On Fri, 23 Apr 2004 15:03:29 +0200, Robert Chung wrote:
>> Aaah, 1999, great year.
>
> Age UCI_points
> 21 279
> 22 986
> 23 543
> 24 1391
> 25 1818 <-- 1999
> 26 173
> 27 0
> 28 0
> 29 355

Haha! Exactly.

warren

In article <c6a9mp$og@dispatch.concentric.net>, Richard Adams
<ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote:

> warren wrote:
>
> > In article <BCADDBDF.3201%mynick@nospam.hotmail>, Sonarrat
> > <mynick@nospam.hotmail> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >>Heras has a lot of options. He knows Armstrong's strengths and weaknesses
> >>like the back of his hand (as does Hamilton).
> >
> >
> > Heras has only one option and that is to attack on the steep climbs in
> > the Pyrenees. He has done nothing but follow Armstrong and Rubierra
> > during the last two Tours and then climb well on 3, maybe four days in
> > the Pyrenees in all of that time. That is not enough to come close to
> > beating Armstrong if all is normal.
> >
> > I doubt that Heras will even beat Armstrong on the Alp d'Huez because
> > Heras has shown every year that that type of long, not-so-steep climb
> > does not suit him as well as many other riders in the race.
> >
> > -WG
>
>
> Yeah, but Armstrong is only explosive for so long. He can't maintain
> those attacks for long and you watch the followers start to reel back time.
>
> Say Armstrong is good for the last 5 Km of a climb and Heras is actually
> good for 7 Km.

You can "say" that, but he hasn't shown it in the Tour. He's been
sitting behind Armstrong (only guy on the team to do so) on nearly all
climbs unless the climb is very steep and only then on the last one or
two climbs of the day when he is doing what he's paid to do..

> That mountain TT that Heras did
> in the '03 Vuelta was pretty amazing. To be that fast on that kind of
> climb after three weeks shows he's a tough little nut.

Steep climbs are where he's best. That's not the Alp d'Huez.

-WG

Tom Kunich

In 2002 and 2003, Heras was treated almost as protected as Lance. And yet
Heras's performances were all over the map. I would say that there's no way
that Heras could be considered a serious threat to Lance or Jan.

Beloki is a much greater threat but with his recovery problems and changing
to a new team I don't think that he'll represent the optimal condition this
year and it would take that to threaten the big two.

However, lately some pretty damn good Frenchmen have been showing some signs
of becoming pretty good. And it is surely time that we see another great
Frenchman racing. I think we may see someone new challenging perhaps even to
his own surprise.

"Kevin Metcalfe" <nslckevin@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:71b8fc58.0404221908.664ce335@posting.google.com...
> sonarrat@stormloader.com (Sonarrat) wrote in message
news:<21429691.0404221222.35dd8952@posting.google.com>...
> > buzz_macdonald@hotmail.com (Buzz) wrote in message
news:<dd4ec770.0404220613.5e5d1505@posting.google.com>...
> > > Richard Adams <ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote in message
news:<c677o2$oo@dispatch.concentric.net>...
> > >
> > > There is a big difference in being in good shape and being a Tour
> > > champion.
> >
> > And what would that be?? Is the object not still to get to the finish
> > line having spent less time on the road than everybody else? I fail
> > to see why you have to be mythological about it...
>
> Tour champions take control of the race at it's most important
> moments. Those most important moments are not necessarily the place
> and time of your choosing. That means that even if Heras shows up as
> a better climber than Lance this year, he still might not win. Can
> Heras out climb Lance more than Lance can out TT Heras? What about if
> the pack shatters in a cross wind in the flats? And even if Heras
> beats Lance in the 15km Alpe d'Huez time trial, do you think it will
> be by enough to make up for the drubbing he's going to take in the
> flat 60km ITT three days later?
>
> You have to be a tremendous climber to win the Tour. Yet, skinny
> little pure climbers rarely ever win. That's not an accident or fate.
> It's just a matter of fact that skinny little climbers don't often
> have the whole package to win the tour any more than a pure sprinter
> does. It's just that their specialty means they lose less time than
> sprinters.
>
> The only riders I think have the talent to beat an on form Armstrong
> in the Tour are Ullrich and Vandenbrouke. Unfortunately, Vandenbrouke
> has not followed a very steady path and I think it is past him now.
> Ullrich? He's got some work ahead of him. Hamilton? Not quite.
>
> Tour winners are able to find their moment and slaughter the
> opposition. Going backwards in time:
>
> 2003 - Armstrong at Luz Ardiden
> 2002 - Armstrong in the Pyrenees and Ventoux
> 2001 - Armstrong at Alpe d'Huez (Hey aren't they climbing that this
> year?)
> 2000 - Armstrong at Hautacam
> 1999 - Armstrong at Seistriere
> 1998 - Pantani at Plateau de Beille
> 1997 - Ullrich at Andorre-Arcalis
> 1996 - Riis at Sestrieres and Hautacam
> 1995 - Indurain at Liège and La Plagne (sure Zuelle won the stage...)
> 1992 - 1994 Indurain - the "Extraterrestiral TT", Hautacam, and
> probably others I can't remember.
> 1990 - Lemond to St. Entienne and Luz Arididen. Didn't win either
> stage but took nearly 10 minutes back from Chiapucci in two big
> chunks.
> 1989 - Lemond - Champs-Elysées
> 1983 - Fignon - all over the place
>
> So where is Heras or Beloki or Mayo going to make the big kill that
> remotely resembles any of the ones listed above?
>
> Kevin Metcalfe
> nslckevin@yahoo.com
> Pleasant Hill, CA