TdF--two man race?

jim gravity

Tom Kunich wrote:
> Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
> because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
> unbroken record forever.



True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
won #6 yet.

I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?

I can't.



--

Tom Kunich

"jim gravity" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
news:iWekc.13060$Qe.12056@fe24.usenetserver.com...
> Tom Kunich wrote:
> > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005
> > because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
> > unbroken record forever.
>
> True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
> won #6 yet.
>
> I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
> that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
> restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
>
> I can't.

Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going to
ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted as
saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.

Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?

Tom Kunich

"Michael" <mdw3@nospam.cornell.edu> wrote in message
news:OOdkc.23$0K.13@twister.rdc-kc.rr.com...
>
> "lazysegall" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
> news:Jtdkc.20792$kB5.16708@fe33.usenetserver.com...> Can you explain how
Ivan basso would win? Maybe
> he has the 7th best
> > chance, but I don't think he has a prayer and what about Heras. He seems
> > to be more legitimate threat than Basso and Moreau.
>
> Yeah, he was the the best young rider in 2002, finishing 11th. And
> then in 2003 he was 7th. You are right. It's not likely he's a serious
> contender this year: he hasn't won that much, and he isn't a very good
> time trialer. But he's only 25 or 26, and I think he will have a break
> out year, but maybe not this year.

Lance wasn't considered "a very good time trialer" when he started. And yet
that was what he was known for in the USA. Don't write Basso off. He's a
winner and he never quit last year under the worst conditions. That bodes
very well for that young man.

lazysegall

Tom Kunich wrote:
> "jim gravity" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message news:iW-
> ekc.13060$Qe.12056@fe24.usenetserver.comnews:iWekc.13060$Qe.12056@fe24 .-
> usenetserver.com...
> > Tom Kunich wrote:
> > > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in
> > > 2005 because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain
> > > an unbroken record forever.
> >
> > True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
> > won #6 yet.
> >
> > I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
> > that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
> > restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
> >
> > I can't.
> Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going
> to ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted
> as saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.
> Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?



Bike riders haven't quit at the top, but other superstar US atheletes
have. I agree, with the Heras thing, but he has been time trialing
better, one of the TTs is a mountain, and he is on a team that has
always been excellent in the TTT. I think that makes him a stornger
canidate then moreau for instance...at least in this tour.



--

psycholist

"Tom Kunich" <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:hOfkc.14565$eZ5.12047@newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net...
> "jim gravity" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
> news:iWekc.13060$Qe.12056@fe24.usenetserver.com...
> > Tom Kunich wrote:
> > > Regardless of what you hear, Lance might very well race again in
2005
> > > because if he puts the mark at 7 Tours it will likely remain an
> > > unbroken record forever.
> >
> > True, 7 will be hard to match. (smartass comment coming) But he hasn't
> > won #6 yet.
> >
> > I think the real reason he would show up for number 7 or number 6 for
> > that matter, is because he hasn't lost yet. Could you imagine the self
> > restraint required to walk away, "while on top"?
> >
> > I can't.
>
> Remember back a day or so when some idiot said that Lance wasn't going to
> ride in the US because of dumb US racers? Strange that he was quoted as
> saying that he intends to race more in the US if he rides in 2005.
>
> Has any bicycle racer quit while on top? And why would they?
>

Bernard Hinault ... retired at 32 after helping LeMond win ... a promised
payback. I think it could be argued that he was still at least very near
the top of his game.

Bob C.

Michael

"Tom Kunich" <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:GPfkc.14568$eZ5.4108@newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net...

> Lance wasn't considered "a very good time trialer" when he started. And yet
> that was what he was known for in the USA. Don't write Basso off. He's a
> winner and he never quit last year under the worst conditions. That bodes
> very well for that young man.

I agree. I think he will do very well this year, and you never know what
will happen.

M.

Richard Adams

Tom Kunich wrote:

> "Tom Schulenburg" <tschulenYOUR@HATpacbell.net> wrote in message
> news:Zfdkc.57814$WB2.36460@newssvr25.news.prodigy.com...
>
>>"Michael" <mdw3@nospam.cornell.edu> wrote in message
>>news:rTckc.18$0K.1@twister.rdc-kc.rr.com...
>>
>>
>>>The Euskaltel riders haven't done that well in time trials, but you can
>>>bet they have been working on it. I really think this year will be a
>
> close
>
>>>race. Any of the following riders have a great chance:
>>>
>>>Final 8 from Last Year:
>>>
>>>1. Lance Armstrong (USA), U.S. Postal Service, 83:41:12
>>>2. Jan Ullrich (G), Bianchi, 01:01
>>>3. Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz), Telekom, 04:14
>>>4. Tyler Hamilton (USA), CSC, 06:17
>>>5. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 06:51
>>>6. Iban Mayo (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, 07:06
>>>7. Ivan Basso (I), Fassa Bortolo, 10:12
>>>8. Christophe Moreau (F), Credit Agricole, 12:28
>>>
>>
>>I agree with the top four. They are all riders who are not afraid to
>
> attack.
>
>>Vino will give up a little in the TT, and because he'll be riding support
>>for Jan. - He's not going to hammer to the top of the climbs if he needs
>
> to
>
>>stay fresh for the next stage. Tyler needs to keep the bike upright for
>
> the
>
>>whole race - something he's had problems with. Zubeldia and Mayo are
>>wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
>>(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge. Basso and Moreau are
>>not threats. Beloki looked good last year, but I don't think he'll be
>
> back
>
>>to form in 2004. Heras's chances are overated - He can't TT like the rest,
>>can only attack on really steep climbs, and has an idiot for a DS. Levi
>>Leipheimer could be a darkhorse - if healthy I'd expect him to be in the
>
> top
>
>>5.
>
>
> IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino because
> he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.
>
> I expect the time gaps between Lance and Jan to be more on the order of 3-4
> minutes. There will be some 20 seconds on La Mongie, 40 seconds on Plateau
> de Beille, 30 seconds on Villard-de-Lans, almost a minute on L'Alpe d'Huez
> and the rest in the Besancon time trial. If Lance retires from the European
> peloton at the end of 2004 then perhaps Jan will race again in 2005 but if
> Lance is there I expect Jan to retire a broken man. Regardless of what you
> hear, Lance might very well race again in 2005 because if he puts the mark
> at 7 Tours it will likely remain an unbroken record forever.

As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

lazysegall

wrote:
> As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
> to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
> you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
> the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.



It might be Vino who ends as the T-mobile threat. Vino was third, Lance
will focus on Jan, and Jan's form is bad. Furthermore, Vino has been ok
in the early season...not bad, but he looks like a man ready to peak for
the tour...I would watch out and I will go out on a limb and say that he
has a better chance to "win" not finish second...i mean win than jan.



--

Howard Kveck

In article <03s290hnebsgl8mcodbibogq20jcmdlcd4@4ax.com>,
Ewoud Dronkert <me@privacy.net> wrote:

> On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:07:21 GMT, Tom Schulenburg wrote:
> >Zubeldia and Mayo are
> >wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one year
> >(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.
>
> In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
> form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.

I don't think Mayo or Zubeldia are really -that- far off on TTs, anyway.
In the '03 TdF, they did pretty well on the first one, but not as good on
the second (Mayo lost just enough time to give up his 4th on GC to
Hamilton).

> >Basso and Moreau are not threats.
>
> I agree about Moreau, that is one instabile guy. Basso, I have hope for
> him. He seemed to be lacking a little in the Ardennes classics, but
> we'll see how he does in Romandie. So far, so good.

Basso's still pretty young, and he does seem to be focusing on the Tour
a bit. I think he'll have a good TdF this year.

> >Leipheimer could be a darkhorse
>
> Ofcourse, he already is a dark horse. We don't know what to expect.
> Can't be worse than last year though.

Well, he could crash before he even starts the race - that'd be worse. I
hope he has a good Tour.

--
tanx,
Howard

Q: Can we call it a quagmire yet?

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

Tom Kunich

"lazysegall" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
news:qpgkc.27241$mJ2.1836@fe04.usenetserver.com...
>
> I agree, with the Heras thing, but he has been time trialing
> better, one of the TTs is a mountain, and he is on a team that has
> always been excellent in the TTT. I think that makes him a stornger
> canidate then moreau for instance...at least in this tour.

Not in my opinion. Heras cannot keep a steady high speed on a climb unless
it is very steep. You'll notice that in every climb that didn't have those
high pitches that he was riding at or off of the back of the climbers, often
unable to keep a steady pace and rocking back and forth on and off.

In a TT up such a climb where he doesn't have a group to pace him, I think
that he'll be far too slow on the lesser gradients to make up for it. L'Alpe
is too shallow for Heras anyway.

Tom Kunich

"Richard Adams" <ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote in message
news:c6sl3u$a4a@dispatch.concentric.net...
> Tom Kunich wrote:
> >
> > IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino
because
> > he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.
>
> As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
> to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
> you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
> the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.

In 2002 and 2003 Jan beat his teams to death trying to set the pace in the
mountains. That seems to me to be a perfectly understated case demonstrating
just how strong the Posties really are.

Vino will now be a lieutenant and so limited in his freedom to attack. I
believe that it is Floyd who is to be Vino's foil this year.

Tom Schulenburg

"Tom Kunich" <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:Ztvkc.358$Hs1.95@newsread2.news.pas.earthlink.net...
> "Richard Adams" <ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote in message
> news:c6sl3u$a4a@dispatch.concentric.net...
> > Tom Kunich wrote:
> > >
> > > IF Tyler comes into the Tour on form I expect him to beat out Vino
> because
> > > he climbs faster and TT's faster when on form.
> >
> > As Telekom never seemed to take the lead in mountains, I expect T-mobile
> > to be the same, however, with a good climber and attacker in Vino, don't
> > you suppose they'll let USPS do the pace setting and then send Vino up
> > the road? He strikes me as a dangerous ally for Jan.
>
> In 2002 and 2003 Jan beat his teams to death trying to set the pace in the
> mountains. That seems to me to be a perfectly understated case
demonstrating
> just how strong the Posties really are.
>
> Vino will now be a lieutenant and so limited in his freedom to attack. I
> believe that it is Floyd who is to be Vino's foil this year.
>
>


I agree with Jan not being able to dictate the pace on climbs (but Jan
didn't ride in 2002.) In 2001 I remember Jan having Vino and Livingston
with him in the mountains and they weren't able to drop Lance. I wouldn't
be surprised if Vino wasn't treated as a second "protected" rider by
T-Mobile (especially with Jan's condition in question) This would allow him
to attack, and force Postal to cover, while Jan just sits on chase looking
for opportunity to counter.

-T

Chris

"curt" <nospam@verizon.net> wrote in message

> I have no concern, it is just when I read here people talk about Lance and
> Jan as if they are the only two in the race.

That is merely *your* impression. Everyone knows there is a GC that ranks
every finisher.

>I personally think Lance is on
> his way out and someone will take him down this year or certainly the next
> if he even competes. I would like to see him win a record 6, but he will
> need some luck on his side. It is amazing he has won so many in a row as
it
> is.

It is what it is.

>As for Jan, I think he is on a very strong team and they most likely do
> not want to see a record six from an American.

I see you are catching on...

> I would suspect that most of
> Europe would like to see anyone but an American win and I wouldn't blame
> them to be honest.

Most? I doubt that. Lance has plenty of fans on both sides of the ocean.
Winning 6 is obviously unoprecedented and many people enjoy the excitement
that comes from seeing something that has never happened before. Still,
there are as many opinions as there are people so I would say you should
just let them speak for themselves.


> This will no doubt be a very exciting TdF. I am looking forward to it and
> hope we have some decent coverage and don't have to put up with some
stupid
> major network taking over on the last day and not even showing the race.

Who cares about the last day except those rare editions when it ends in an
ITT?

> No concern here, just surprised people are not looking at other strong
> riders to win. Yes, I do sometimes hear Tyler's name mentioned, so he is
> being looked at as a serious competitor.
>
> Curt

Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is that
with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a rider that
has never placed lower than second AND never beaten Armstrong (unless you
count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these guys are getting the
majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2 most consistent
riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking the race are so low
that it is surprising some of the others can even stay motivated to pursue
GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).

I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more than a
longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there are really
only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing yellow in
Paris.

lazysegall

wrote:
> Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
> that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
> rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten Armstrong
> (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these guys
> are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the 2
> most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking the
> race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even stay
> motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> I would love to think that there are other riders out there with more
> than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there are
> really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at wearing
> yellow in Paris.



In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
Lance anything could happen.



--