TdF--two man race?

Tom Kunich

"Tom Schulenburg" <tschulenYOUR@HATpacbell.net> wrote in message
news:OWykc.3716$7X1.2198@newssvr27.news.prodigy.com...
>
> "lazysegall" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
> news:q_xkc.5681$k74.2470@fe13.usenetserver.com...
> > wrote:
> > > Of course they are looking at others. What you need to understand is
> > > that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has been competing with a
> > > rider that has never placed lower than second AND never beaten
> Armstrong
> > > (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that these
> guys
> > > are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also the
2
> > > most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2 taking
> the
> > > race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can even
stay
> > > motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> > > I would love to think that there are other riders out there with
more
> > > than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that there
> are
> > > really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at
wearing
> > > yellow in Paris.
> >
> > In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
> > 3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that weird
> > things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have also been
> > injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again with Jan and
> > Lance anything could happen.
>
> Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
> remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
> wheels.

Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of those
lesser jersey holders I think.

alex

"Howard Kveck" <YOURhoward@h-SHOESbomb.com> wrote in message
news:YOURhoward-118169.22252929042004@netnews.comcast.net...
> In article <03s290hnebsgl8mcodbibogq20jcmdlcd4@4ax.com>,
> Ewoud Dronkert <me@privacy.net> wrote:
>
> > On Thu, 29 Apr 2004 20:07:21 GMT, Tom Schulenburg wrote:
> > >Zubeldia and Mayo are
> > >wildcards - I'm not sure they will improve their TT's enough in one
year
> > >(without sacraficing climbing) to really challenge.
> >
> > In the earlier stage races this year Mayo showed exceptionally good TT
> > form, for him. And I don't think he lost his climbing legs.
>
> I don't think Mayo or Zubeldia are really -that- far off on TTs,
anyway.
> In the '03 TdF, they did pretty well on the first one, but not as good on
> the second (Mayo lost just enough time to give up his 4th on GC to
> Hamilton).

You are right. In fact Mayo arrived to the TdF03 a bit in a downward state
of shape. He definitely had not prepared specifically for it. Let's not
forget he had won the Vuelta al Pais Vasco (beating Tyler in the last TT!),
then he was second in LBL and finally he was the only one that could put
Lance into trouble during the (Dauphine?). I think people is exagerating his
TT "disability".

As much as I like the Euskaltel concept, I think the major handicap for Mayo
and Zubeldia is that they are in a team with amateurish direction and
management. And this is not likely to change, as the founder of foundation
that created the team is also the top manager (and it seems that the
sponsors are not ready to demand more professionality just yet).

NFN Smith

Tom Schulenburg wrote:

>
> That's my point about all things being equal (No Bad Luck), But if past
> performance is any indication of future results, I don't think you'll see
> Lance or Jan crack. One of the things that impressed me last year (And
> hopefuly I've learned from) is that both Lance and Jan were in situations
> where they were about to crack - what they did was drop off the pace and
> ride tempo to the top. In both cases they limited their losses to a few
> seconds. A less experienced rider would have tried to hang on until they
> bonk.

True, but Things Happen that you can't expect. Last year, Beloki
crashed. In 1989, Pedro Delgado missed his prologue start time.

Actually, the best example to watch for is Indurain in '96. He was the
favorite, having won 5 consecutive tours, but he was also at the end of
his career. He cracked on a cold, rainy mountain stage, and as it
turned out, Riis was the stronger rider that year.

In the case of Armstrong, the real question is in how much he has left
in his career. I think he's now at the point where his most prominent
opponent may not necessarily be Ullrich, but his own advancing age.
Lance is still close enough to the top that he can still compete at the
top level, and win, but that isn't going to be much longer. If
Armstrong doesn't crack this year, the chances of doing so next year are
much higher.

The primary reason that Ullrich isn't quite facing the same problem is
mostly a matter of age, and that he's a couple of years younger than
Armstrong. However, given Ullrich's battles with his weight over his
career, he might be susceptible to cracking at an earlier age.

As we see Armstrong and Ullrich begin to reach the ends of their careers
at the top, it may be more productive to look for the identity of the
next Tour winner not in the guys who have challenged, come close, but
not quite made it to the top step of the podium, but guys who are
considerably younger. I will admit that I haven't followed the
competition for the young rider white jersey in recent years, but that
may be the more likely place to see who's going to be next.

Smith

lazysegall

Tom Kunich wrote:
> "Tom Schulenburg" <tschulenYOUR@HATpacbell.net> wrote in message news:O-
> Wykc.3716$7X1.2198@newssvr27.news.prodigy.comnews:OWykc.3716$7X1.2198@ n-
> ewssvr27.news.prodigy.com...
> >
> > "lazysegall" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message news:q-
> > _xkc.5681$k74.2470@fe13.usenetserver.comnews:q_xkc.5681$k74.2470@fe13-
> > .usenetserver.com...
> > > wrote:
> > > > Of course they are looking at others. What you need to
> > > > understand is that with a rider as dominant as Armstrong has
> > > > been competing with a rider that has never placed lower than
> > > > second AND never beaten
> > Armstrong
> > > > (unless you count the 1996 Tour), it sort of makes sense that
> > > > these
> > guys
> > > > are getting the majority of the focus. The 2 top riders are also
> > > > the
> 2
> > > > most consistent riders. The odds of anyone other than those 2
> > > > taking
> > the
> > > > race are so low that it is surprising some of the others can
> > > > even
> stay
> > > > motivated to pursue GC (as opposed to stages or jersey prizes).
> > > > I would love to think that there are other riders out there with
> more
> > > > than a longshot chance at taking the race. The reality is that
> > > > there
> > are
> > > > really only 2 with anything more than a very modest chance at
> wearing
> > > > yellow in Paris.
> > >
> > > In the long run it is probably a lot better for a rider to finish
> > > 3,4,5,6 in gc then to win any of the jerseys. No to mention that
> > > weird things happen. Think about beloki's crash...Lance could have
> > > also been injured in that fall. If the same thing happened again
> > > with Jan and Lance anything could happen.
> >
> > Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
> > remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just
> > sucking wheels.
> Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of
> those lesser jersey holders I think.



First they didn't win one Jersey, they dominated. Second, we don't just
remember them because of the jersey. Third, I was talking about finances
not memories. Fourth, the gc contenders who we are talking about can't
win jerseys other than KOM, which is not that prestigous or good for
sponsers. Fifth on stages, the only way that a rider can get on breaks
is if they drop out of the gc. I really don't think you can tell a rider
to intetionally do that. Otherwise, why not try to suck lances wheel and
get a victory at the end. Anyway a lot of the lesser names do get stage
wins. Vino and tyler for instance.



--

David Off

Tom Kunich wrote:

> "Tom Schulenburg" <tschulenYOUR@HATpacbell.net> wrote in message
> news:OWykc.3716$7X1.2198@newssvr27.news.prodigy.com...
>>Nobody's going to remember who finished 4th or 5th in GC. People do
>>remember stage winners, and Jersey winners. The rest are just sucking
>>wheels.
>
> Anyone here remember Sean Kelly or Eric Zabel? They were a couple of those
> lesser jersey holders I think.

erm... that is what he said

Tom Schulenburg

"lazysegall" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
news:v4Tkc.39645$Qe.15012@fe24.usenetserver.com...
<SNIP>

> First they didn't win one Jersey, they dominated.

How many TdF's did Marco Pantani win? Bjarne Riis? Pedro Delgado? They are
in the record books, and remembered as champions.

<SNIP>

> Fifth on stages, the only way that a rider can get on breaks
> is if they drop out of the gc. I really don't think you can tell a rider
> to intetionally do that. Otherwise, why not try to suck lances wheel and
> get a victory at the end. Anyway a lot of the lesser names do get stage
> wins. Vino and tyler for instance.

Vino is not a lesser name and was in the mix for the GC - Threatening to
take the Yellow Jersey. Tyler won his stage because he was not a threat to
the GC, and Euskatel was not capable of protecting their riders ahead of
him.

I don't think there is a team out there who wouldn't value a stage win more
than a fourth place finish.

-T

Bob Schwartz

Tom Schulenburg <tschulenYOUR@hatpacbell.net> wrote:
> I don't think there is a team out there who wouldn't value a stage win more
> than a fourth place finish.

I don't know that I agree with that. A fourth place GC finish can
establish a rider as a contender to win someday. Grand Tour victors
most often come from a fairly small group of possible winners. In
the case of the Tour de France it is almost unheard of for someone
to win with no prior Grand Tour top placings. Perhaps LANCE comes
close in 1999 although he had placed fourth in the prior year's
Vuelta. I think Fignon in 1983 might be the most recent example of
this.

It is the potential winners that draw the most attention. A good
illustration of the value of a potential winner is Berzin, who
was able to keep finding spots on teams well after it was clear
his career had dead ended, just on the possibility that he might
regain his form.

Another example is Levi Leipheimer. If he were nothing more than
a stage winner he might be back in the US riding for Noble House
like Marty Jemison. While a cynic might conclude that he owes his
spot on Rabobank to his pom pom waving wife, it is really because
of the 3rd place finish in the Vuelta that puts him on that
exclusive list.

Bob Schwartz
cvcc@execpc.com