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23-09.-2004, 05:32 PM
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#151 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: London
Posts: 78
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
Average TDF Speeds 1989-2004 (kmh) 1989 37.5 1990 38.3 1991 38.7 1992 39.5 1993 38.7 1994 38.4 1995 39.2 1996 39.2 1997 39.2 1998 40.0 1999 40.3 2000 38.6 2001 40.0 2002 40.0 2003 40.9 2004 40.6 As you can see, we are looking at average speeds that are between 1-2kmh faster than the early 1990's. Over 90-100 hours of racing this mounts up to a big increase in distance (you can do the maths). The size of the TDF peloton has stayed basically the same at around 190-200 riders. Sure, the route and weather conditions differ from year to year but aerodynamics in TT's don't increase the average that much as they represent a small proportion of the overall route. I don't think that the higher average speeds are due to better training. In my opinion it is due to better recovery that has been assisted by perfromance enhancing drugs. The average speed is the basis of my argument which I know you disagree with, but I think these numbers are very interesting to say the least and cannot be totally explained by better training techniques. Greg Lemond recently commented that he could not finish in the top 20 in the Tour now even if he was in top condition and this to me is very significant. Don't you think that the percentages involved with the Festina and Cofidis doipng scandals work out at more than 5% of the team? |
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23-09.-2004, 06:17 PM
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#152 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 111
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
I have to say I have no idea who Greg Lemond is lol, well i am only 17! That might explain it!! I agree with you to a point, that these increases could be due to performance enhancing substances but i don't think that they are completly to blame. And do cyclists cheat more now than they did in 1989??? There has been so many advances in every facet of cycling in the last 10-15 years. Training programs, bike technology, diet, recovery technology, the support riders have medicaly etc, i mean all this contributes to faster times doesn't it?? And its not just cycling where times have got quicker. I mean swimming, running, even car racing (and you can't tell me they are taking drugs). Technology has made huge leaps latley So surely those things have made a difference. I think it might be easier to look at the time taken to ride the Tour by each winner over time rather than the average speed. It just might be easier to see improvements... im not sure. But i will admit that this technolgy also applies to cheating and doping. And i am not saying that the faster times have nothing to do with cheating, because im sure it does, i just don't think that it has improved the times that much. Bear in mind that i am only 17 so compared to all the experienced cyclist brains out there i am just learning!! |
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23-09.-2004, 08:23 PM
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#153 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 303
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
That's good then, you still have time to avoid being one of those snobbie weanies. |
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23-09.-2004, 10:00 PM
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#154 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Not quite there
Posts: 968
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
Look at the last 7 years. The speeds are basically the same. If you look at the speeds over the entire tour, the largest increase is from the late 1920's to the early 1950's (there was no tour during WWII). Anyway, the avg speed have always gone up. Look at the whole picture. I think it could easily be argued that doping isn't responsible for all of the increases.
__________________
Cheap, Strong and Light. Pick any Two. |
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23-09.-2004, 10:03 PM
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#155 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 121
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
DNA testing would be difficult. 1st red blood cells contain no nuclei (at least in mammals) and you would have to rely on mitochondrial DNA- much trickier. If you did and found only one population - you would have to have very, very very stringent controls to offer this as proof. Once again cyclingnews.com has a very good article about the new test being used. To some extent the article over dramatizes the risk of transfusions. I say this cautiously as there are risks but not to the extent most think. However, doing this on the sly probably is much more riskier. http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php...04/blood_doping |
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24-09.-2004, 12:18 AM
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#156 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: London
Posts: 78
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
cyclingnews.com is reporting that Hamilton's B sample from the Olympics Games has produced a negative result butthe one from the Vuelta is positive. I would say this is good news for Tyler Hamilton as he can now cast doubt on the testing procedures.
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24-09.-2004, 12:44 AM
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#157 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 121
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
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I guess technically he keeps the Gold, but still may face suspension? |
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24-09.-2004, 12:56 AM
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#158 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 121
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
That is an interesting graph. It appears that average speeds are indeed leveling out. From 80 to 90 significant improvements in bike technolgy have been made- pedals, bikes are lighter, sti shifters, In the early 80's down tube shifters and no look style pedals. Training has dramaticly improved during the past ten years- yes altitude training was available, but people didn't monitor it as well (heart rate monitors, lactic acid monitors etc). Even in the early 90s a fair number of riders relied on racing frequently to get in shape for the Tour. Style of racing has also changed- now everyone targets the TDF. It has become a monster. Teams are honed to do well at the tour not just participate. On an anecdotal side Paul Sherwin and others have commented that now in the tour there are no "days off" where the peleton takes it easy for a stage as in the 70's because the Tour has become so big that every stage is raced all out. I am not denying that doping hasn't played a role, but the graph looks just like I would expect given improvements over the years in equipment training and focus. |
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24-09.-2004, 12:58 AM
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#159 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Ljubljana, Slovenia
Posts: 1,213
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Hehe that is very interesting! I wish Tyler the best!
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24-09.-2004, 01:08 AM
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#160 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: St. Simons Island, Ga.
Posts: 27
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Back to Tyler
Now Phonk claims to have the results of both "B" tests and the IOC "B" test is negative while the UCI "B" test is positive. This seems to support what phonak claims in that the test is not reliable as it is based on probability. It makes you wonder 1)If it is a faulty test? 2)What percentages are used 3)Do they differ in threshholds between the UIC and IOC test and if so why? 4)Once again why the long delay in the IOC posting the results? 5)If the tests are faulty enough to have "A" tests positive and one "B" test negative while the other is positive does this warrent enough to destroy a persons career or reputation? I support fully stronger testing and bans but at the same time is kinda of being 75% sure enough to end a persons career. If these results are the norm maybe a refinement of the process or further study is needed. To crossover it's use as a detection device for feto-maternal haemorrhage as proof of it's realibilty as a test for athletes is unsound at best. If the test shows the 50-50 chance of a haemorrhage in a mother it is a wonderful tool for doctors to prevent deaths and/or complications in mothers versus the risks of procedures to correct the possible haemorrhage (ie risks vs. gains) but is that same 50-50 chance good enough for testing in athletes. I don't think so. This is all jusst based on information on various ccycling sites and press releases as they come out. |
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24-09.-2004, 01:19 AM
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#161 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 121
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
It all depends on your threshhold. Few tests are perfect. If you increase sensitivity (picking up all true positives) you tend to decrease specificity (exclude all true negatives) and vice versa. In certain clinical settings you will accept a certain % of flase positives so that you don't miss any real cases (false negatives). I would think in testing for blood doping you would err the other way- accept that you are going to miss a few cases but not wrongly incrimminate someone. |
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24-09.-2004, 01:23 AM
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#162 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: London
Posts: 78
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
The fact the speeds are almost the same (slightly faster) during the last 7 years is exactly my point. Given that a major doping problem was acknowledged in 1998 with the Festina affair, are we now to believe that major improvements in training have closed the average speed gap between a doped peloton (possibly) and one that is now perceived to be clean by some members of this forum? |
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24-09.-2004, 01:29 AM
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#163 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 246
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
http://velonews.com/news/fea/6997.0.html
I think that this is good news for Tyler...I wonder why Phonak came out with this information first, before the IOC? |
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24-09.-2004, 01:48 AM
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#164 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Ljubljana, Slovenia
Posts: 1,213
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Re: **** Breaking News: Hamilton Tested Positive? ***
Quote:
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24-09.-2004, 01:51 AM
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#165 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Northern California
Posts: 369
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Press Releases By Phonak And Hamilton Today 9/23/2004
Media Release
Phonak Cycling Team Communication of 23 September 2004 With regard to the Tyler Hamilton blood testing case the Phonak Cycling Team takes the liberty to announce that the blood samples examined in the B-Test under the UCI procedure are positive. The B-Test blood samples taken under IOC however will turn out negative. Since the new method is an effort based on probability and interpretation measurements uncertainties will remain in this examination and procedure in any case. Because neither UCI nor IOC have so far disclosed data and because legal procedures may last for a long time without a clear outcome, the team management has decided to establish a scientific board in order to achieve clarity as to the medical method and reliability of these new blood testing tools. This scientific board will consist of various scientists with out-standing reputation in this field. Those scientists will be teamed up from different sources and will look into the entire method and data and report as to whether the analysis conducted at the lab in Lausanne in connection with the B-testing is reliable. In order that the scientific board can commence its work the entire files have to be released from UCI and/or IOC. This is so far not the case although requested by Tyler Hamilton. Once the data is available the scientific board will come up with its results as soon as possible. For the time being the names of the scientists involved will not be disclosed in order to avoid that they are disturbed in their work or influenced in any way. Once the results are available the press will be informed. The team's goal is, and this is in the exact interest of Tyler Hamilton, that we have clarity in the end. Moreover, if there is a way to improve the new method in order to avoid future uncertainties this will also be a part of the mandate to the scientific board. With the foregoing the team management believes that it can form part of the campaign against blood doping and bring this matter up to a world-wide acceptable level. Up to that point, i.e. the results which derive from said scientific board, communication as to the merits and procedure of the UCI and IOC cases will be reduced to a minimum. It is our all interest to contribute to reliable testing methods and not only to win the case because of legal deficiencies, if any, at the end of UCI and IOC. During this phase Tyler Hamilton is suspended from racing but stays with the team. ARcycling AG Explanation: ARcycling AG, Hombrechtikon, Switzerland, is the owner and operator of the Phonak Cycling Team. -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Media Release Tyler Hamilton Statement by Tyler Hamilton of 23 September 2004 First of all I would like to discuss the recent press releases concerning my suspension from the team. This decision was taken jointly by Andy Rihs in his function as team owner and myself and communicated already during the press conference held on Tuesday evening. I am still a member of the Phonak-Cycling-Team and will continue to participate in the day to day decisions concerning our team. With regard to the B-test from the Olympic Games no official information has been provided to me as of today. However, I am sure that the Gold medal that I worked so hard for will stay in my hands. I guarantee that I represented the United States of America as an honest, clean and proud athlete. As the Olympic Committee did not promptly inform me of the alleged anti-doping violation until one month after the event on August 18, 2004, it was not possible to defend myself before. Regardless of this I will prove my innocence. I will support the scientific board established by Phonak Cycling and myself, which I strongly believe will put light on the questions we have on the reliability of this new test. Hopefully with this scientific team, we can find a fool-proof method to this test in order to the prevent other athletes ending up in the same situation. I believe that this is the only way to bring clarity to this matter. It is necessary that I will be released from the allegations based on a scientifically conducted correction of the testing method. It is of further essence that I can as soon as possible, together with my team, form part of a reinstated reputation with evidence that I have contributed to valid, reliable and watertight measures in the anti-doping campaign. In this sense I fully support this research & development project, and I am confident that its result will bring me back to cycling soon so I can pursue my dream of winning the Tour de France. I very much appreciate the support of my family, my friends, my team and fans. |
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