2005 TdeF route

limerickman

Agreed 15 looks a pretty interesting stage.

If the UCI adopt the same testing as the IOC did at Athens, it will be interesting to see if LA turns up next July.

musette

Jalabert's observation is correct, as reported in Velonews: "Former French star Laurent Jalabert, now a commentator for French TV, said, 'This is a Tour for all-around riders that could suit a man like Vinokourov.'"

Bruyneel: "This parcours is very similar to recent Tours and it’s a very balanced race. As a race, **the 2005 Tour fits Lance well**; but we don’t know it he’s going to race the Tour or not …we haven’t made a decision yet ..."

Role of Mountain Descent

Also, it must be remembered that LA is an outstanding descender of mountains. True, he doesn't always go as quickly as he could. But that's because it wasn't necessary to take risks on prior tours. On this one, I have no doubt that, if LA is in the lead in a mountain stage with a downhill finish, he will be putting in his most rapid descending performance (not that that is too helpful against a peloton descending). But I just note that LA is a much better descender than he has had to show during certain recent Tours.

JU only gapped LA on the descent of Col d'Aspin in 04 because LA was careful, in part because of the rainy conditions. True, JU's descent has really improved over time, but LA is at least as good a descender when it counts as JU.

Chris Carmichael discusses LA's descent capabilities: "Lance Armstrong has always been a very good and aggressive descender, and it's important to understand that this doesn't mean he's reckless or a daredevil. Rather, strong descenders are smart, know their limits, and stay within them (barely).... While many men have built their cycling reputations on their ability to climb mountains, few distinguish themselves with their descending skills. There is a limit to how fast you can safely descend, and groups almost always reform when the road levels out, so phenomenal descending skills won't give you nearly as much advantage as phenomenal climbing power. One man whose descending skills set him apart from the pack is 2002 Giro d'Italia winner, Paulo Salvodelli. "Il Falco" (The Falcon) as he is nicknamed, has been known to wipe out two-minute deficits on steep twisting descents."

http://www.olntv.com/tdf03/carmichael14.html

Then, there is the Beloki situation in 03. "Beloki’s crash (and Armstrong’s save): one of the most amazing moments in the history of cycling, and an image that will make every tour highlight reel ever put together. It points up a facet of bike racing that I think is often overlooked: handling skills. When they began that tricky descent--chasing Vinokourov--**Beloki’s director told him (over the radio) to let Armstrong take the lead, because he was generally acknowledged to be a better, bolder descender.** But for reasons of his own, Beloki forged ahead, on the front, taking chances and pushing the envelope."

The Beloki crash could also suggest Azevedo is a decent descender (??), as well as climber. Azevedo was among the first ONCE teammates to be by Beloki's side after the crash.

http://www.bikecal.com/bill/bill-0803.htm

Role of Team in Controlling Other Riders

This Tour route suggests that all-arounders are useful as Team members. It would be useful to have people who can be both rouleur-types, as it will be necessary to control breaks more (given the more limited opportunities for the leaders to recapture time) even in the early going. However, also you need the same people to be able to form little groups with you on the mountain passes so that you can descend as more than one person, and to permit the strategic opportunities raised by a long break-away involving a race favorite like LA (he would need some team members to be with him, to build momentum and keep the lead during descents). That is another reason LA and JU are best situated. They both have teammates who are pretty well-rounded, esp Azevedo, Popovych and Rubiera ini LA's case and Klodden and Vino in JU's case.

Contrary to popular belief, even though the penultimate stage's being an ITT adds uncertainty for each rider, I think the route favors riders who are well-rounded and who have strong teams. Hmm, that means LA and JU!

musette

Does the diagram for 15 indicate a part of it is in Spain, due to the Espagne designation at the bottom? If that's the case, Mayo et al may be a bit more motivated than usual, esp after the terrible showing for Spanish fans in 04.

Some History on Pla-d'Adet. It was where LA got the yellow jersey in 01.

"I don't think I've ever felt as strong before," declared Lance Armstrong just after he donned the Maillot Jaune in Pla d'Adet, after the brutal Stage 13 finish."
http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/..._stage_13.shtml
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/cycl...-21-stage13.htm

limerickman

Goes in to Spain for a few kilometres.

Mayo !?!?
Well at least there's no cobbles to upset him in '05 !
I see he's disappointed that no one has come looking for him in the transfer market.

musette

I said Mayo would be more motivated. That doesn't mean his motivation is going to lead to anything. Of course LA will win 15.

Salvodelli aka "Il Falco" (obviously, teammate of LA; ex-teammate of JU)

You know what the course means for sure? Salvodelli won't be able to ride for himself as readily in the Giro, because Bruyneel might make him save his energies, relinquish the Giro for the Discovery Team as a real prospect (or use Popovych in Italy, with the hopes Popovych will get grand tour experience). SALVODELLI WILL BE ON THE TdF TEAM FOR DISCOVERY, and off the Giro team (resting up).

limerickman

He might well be more motivated - although we heard the same cry before the
2004 version (that because there were more Pyreenean stages in 2004, Mayo,
Zubeldia & Co, were going to give the fans something to savour).

I hope we see Cunego in the 2005 TDF and Valverde as well.

musette

My goodness, what a great tour it is going to be for Discovery. LA will get Salvodelli as his main domestique during the descents, in an unanticipated benefit from having hired the latter over. This will reduce the risk to LA of going "all out" on descents that lead to the end of mountain stages, if he is trying to retain his lead built up earlier in the stage. Being on the wheel of Salvodelli on a switchback or otherwise tricky mountain descent is about the best place in the world for a team leader.

Domestique assistance will be nice especially if one is attempting a very rapid and therefore riskier descent, as may be appropriate for LA to conserve time gain at the end of certain mountain stages. Role of Salvodelli:

(1) Lead LA down the descent, without being exactly as aggressive as Salvodelli can be when he has had to. Role of choosing the line, gauging where they can go faster and when they shouldn't. Allows LA to focus more, knowing that another is looking out of the two of them and/or they are looking out together (frankly, with Il Falco leading, I doubt one has to really be concerned).

(2) Increase the aerodynamics relative to LA doing this alone. If other Discovery riders can be there (e.g., Azevedo, Rubiera), this little group will become even more aerodynamic. This was the role Landis played for Heras, when Landis was in the breakaway group during 03 Vuelta and waited for Heras so that the two could take back as much time on I Nozal as possible.

http://www.altrec.com/published/cycle/howtos/cornering/

"It was a chilly day high in the Dolomite Mountains of northern Italy during the 2000 Giro d'Italia stage race. Italian rider Paulo Salvodelli arrived at the top of the Passo Sella climb nearly two minutes behind the race leaders. Only 20 kilometers remained before the finish in the village of Selva Val Gardena in the valley far below. "Nicknamed "Il Falco," or "The Falcon," for his incredible descending skills, Salvodelli was about to begin another one of his death-defying drops. If it had been a straight shot down the mountain, he would have had no chance of catching the leaders, but no mountain road comes without switchbacks. Screaming down the twisting, narrow mountain road at speeds approaching 80km/hr., Salvodelli regained with every passing kilometer. He flew through the turns, deftly leaning over thousand-foot drops on one side of the road before banking across each turn at the last instant. Even the following motorcycle was having trouble keeping up. At the bottom, 12 kilometers later, he hooked back up with the leaders."

Stage 11 will be very interesting, I think.

Another point is that Salvodelli's descent capabilities will increase the chances that LA will not be alone when ascending mountains. Various stages have a series of mountains. Even if Salvodelli and other Discovery domestiques get dropped on earlier mountains, Salvodelli has a good chance of descending and getting back into the LA group to be there to accompany LA. What a great acquisition, in light of the Tour route in particular.

Role of TTT

Even if the cap on time lost by other teams is kept for 05, the TTT will unintentionally become more important than in 04. That's because, with fewer mountain finishes and ITTs, there are just fewer opportunities to take large blocks of time. Since the gaps may be smaller, a given maximum gap from the TTT will mean more.

Role of Strategy

The decisions made by a DS will become more crucial, because the teams will need to control breaks more and be more vigilant throughout. Also, the fewer opportunities (at least evident opportunities) for large gains mean that strategy will become even more important. Of course this favors LA.

sportzgurl

I have a question for you as I am pretty clueless about cycling!!

Is this route going to favour anybody or any team in particular? And who is going to be disadvantaged by it? Or what i am really after is, how is this route going to effect Jan Ullrich? I mean if Lance rides (50/50 at this stage) is the route going to favour him over Jan because of their teams? I was just wondering about Jan cos he is my fav and as much as I love Lance I wan't to see Jan win more! So if you tell me it looks good for him I will be able to get excited about the Tour!!

musette

As I discussed, I believe the route, while it introduces greater risk for LA, JU and every other rider (i.e., the amount of time they could lose if any of them had a bad day), is going to favor people who can both time trial and climb (since they will not lose large chunks of time on either that they have fewer opportunities to recoup) and who have strong teams. Those people are JU (whom I want to win too, but not over LA), and LA.

Also, when I say something favors LA, it means it favors his team Discovery, because he is the undisputed leader of the team. The team's only goal for the TdF will be to help him win the TdF.

It's slightly less absolute at T-Mobile, but anything that favors JU generally favors T-Mobile, especially now that Mario Krummer sees what happened to Godefroot when Godefroot critized JU.

keydates

JU needs a team that's more centered around him.

fondriest

JU needs to get off his fat , lazy german ass and prepare properly for the tour if he is to have any chance at all.

__________________
"SMELL MY CHEESE YOU MOTHER!!" Alan Partridge

musette

With all respect, JU and any other rider who is seeking to challenge LA have many things to do. JU must demand more support from his team; Kloden cannot be allowed to have his own aspirations (which he will obviously and will be permitted to have by T-Mobile's Krummer) and Vino must stay dedicated to JU. JU also needs to not have to lose so much weight as quickly as he did in 04 such a short time before the Tour, as it could affect his power. JU must also get better strategic advice; Krummer has been crummy so far, and is unclear how Ludwig will assist Godefroot. Pavenage is a distraction.

Contrast the situation at Discovery. New team members are chosen not only based on their cycling skills, but also on how well they will fit into the team (translated: they must be 100% willing to support LA and not have personal aspirations, during the races in which LA participates). Team members in many cases are kept or hired in part based on how they may help him. Bruyneel is a brilliant strategist, and is aided by a competent Dirk Demol and will be further supported by Sean Yates. LA will be ready physically, motivated.

limerickman

Look at 2004 : Ullrich had a bad first week in the TDF and then started to perform strongly.
Mobile however - and forty shades of Green Goodefroot - allowed Ullrich to become isolated when he struggled in the Pyrenees.
Whatever slight chance JU had against LA, was wiped out by Goodefroot.

Old Forty Shades of Green can point to tactics which allowed Kloden to finish third.
That's fine if this is the extent of ones ambition.
However, it is sufficient to credibly go for top place on the podium.

Kloden, in my view, will never be a top challenger - talented guy, don't get me wrong but he's not got what it takes to be a grand champion.

I say this every year : JU needs to be assured that his team for the TDF is working for him.
Look at the passengers he had with him in 2004 : Nardelo (waster), Salvodelli (invisible), Kessler (ran off the road like a novice), Kloden (was allowed free reign by Goodefroot).
Compare this to LA's team.

JU only received real support from Guerini in the 2004 TDF.
JU needs to be at the top of his game and to have FULL Mobile support if he
has any realistic chance of beating Armstrong.

musette

Stage 15 is also interesting because it includes Col de Portet early on, where Fabio Casartelli's had his accident.