Stage 20 TDF : Saint-Etienne ITT : Spoiler

tinks

^^ LMAO

If it does play out like that I think I'll have to buy the DVD and do the Snoopy dance of joy.

gntlmn

The big race will be between Ullrich and Rasmussen tomorrow. Ullrich will try to bridge the 2:12 gap separating himself and Rasmussen in order to place on the podium in Paris. I'd be very surprised if Jan fails to bridge this gap. It will be Armstrong, Basso and Ullrich in Paris.

SuperTiger18

Chris Carmichael (Lance's coach) writes a column throughout the Tour for www.thepaceline.com and has repeatedly mentioned the final ITT. Prior to the start of the Tour he stated that Lance wanted to win the final time trial of his career and finish with a bang.

Carmichael has since made remarks about Lance's focus on the upcoming ITT and his on-going recovery and preparation for that specific stage. I would expect Chris to know Lance's goals and would fully expect to see Lance Armstrong give the performance of his life on Saturday.

In fact I will say this much....I think Armstrong will put a big chunk of time into the field on Saturday. I would expect him to ride the FASTEST time trial of his life. In my opinion he will leave everything on the course and demolish the spirits of his competitors, leaving no doubt that he is the greatest Tour de France rider of all time.

SuperTiger18

I think it will be very close. Jan will be supremely motivated to ride hard, but Rasmussen will start after Jan and will hear the splits the entire time. I would not be surprised to see Rasmussen on the podium in Paris.

wolfix

rejobako

I would disagree, only because I don't think Armstrong is capable of "demolishing" a guy like Ullrich on this particular time trial. I think Jan is on-form and ready, and I suspect the gap will be close between them.

Second, as I said, even though I agree that Lance would probably love to win the stage as a matter of pride, I don't think he's going to take any unnecessary risks. To "leave everything on the course", he'd have to keep up as much speed on the corners as possible, taking them wide and brushing the barriers, etc. I just don't think he's going to risk a crash/injury when he has the GC all but giftwrapped for him.

From the other perspective, there are some good time trialers, like Jan, who is already going to be motivated to go extra fast to make up time on Rasmussen, who would love nothing more than to win the stage and, in so doing, gain just a little bit of bragging rights vis a vis Armstrong.

All that being said, if Armstrong is as fit as I think he is, he may win it anyway. But given that Jan has so much more to prove to himself and to everyone else, and given that he seems to be in great form this last week, I think tomorrow may just be Ullrich's day.

sonicman

I want Lance to win tomorrow and I expect him to win tomorrow.

He´s going to retire, and while being with the yellow jersey at the Champs Elysees could be enought for his, he´d love to end his career with a stage win.

I don´t think that long climb in the middle of the stage helps Ullrich, in the end I think that might give some podium hopes for Rasmussen

The only guy that could beat him in my opinion would be David Millar, but we all know what he did and what happened after that.

SuperTiger18

I don't think it the course has many unnecessary risk sections to it. Being that it is covers hills and a Cat 3 climb most of the tight turns are on the uphill. The only flat portion of the stage is the final few kilometers and looking at the route map there are no serious turns in the road coming off the Cat 3 climb.

I expect Lance knows the course very well and will know where to push it and where to ease off. Leaving everything on the course doesn't mean being in the red zone the entire 55K, it means not having anything left at the finish.

Check out the course route and the stage profile. It sets up nicely for Lance to really hammer it coming out of the hills.

rejobako

Here, again, I mildly disagree. I think because Ullrich hasn't been able to match the sudden accelerations by Armstrong/Basso in the mountains, some people conclude he's an inferior climber. I would suggest that the fact that this is a time-trial, not a regular stage, actually benefits him. Ullrich is a relentless, steady climber, and the rigors of a solo time trial are perfectly suited to his style. Don't get me wrong -- Lance is a superlative climber and, head to head, Ullrich just can't stay with him. But when they're both alone and working against the clock, Ullrich isn't too far behind. Add to that what I believe to be Ullrich's top form at present, and I think he can make it interesting tomorrow.

(I note that last year, both in the penultimate-day flat time trial and on the ascent to Alpe-D'Huez, Ullrich lost 1:01 to finish second each time. In my opinion, considering all the contingencies and circumstances, I think he has it in him to ride very well tomorrow, and make Lance's finishing sprint awfully exciting. We shall see.)

rejobako

Points well taken, and you may end up being right.

hombredesubaru

Lance will win and win big.

I think in fact he has been saving it all through the mountains for this final TT, that and the fact that as C Carmichael had said that it would take a monumental effort (think Luz Ardiden) to drop Basso in the mountains. So why waste the energy? Save it all for this last one.

His kids are there. He has not won a race all year. At the start of the Tour he said he was flying and in the best form of his life-and proved it in the prologue. Carmichael said on TV this am that Lance was flying.

I would expect Lance wants to win and set the record for the fastest long ITT in the Tour. He has won every long last ITT except 2003 when he sat uo because of the wet and Ullrich's crash.

He will demolish the field including Ullrich.

JRMDC

From Velonews, reporting on stage 19:



"I realize these are my last days. There will be one hour (of racing) tomorrow and maybe four on Sunday. I am not sad yet though," said Armstrong after the stage in Le Puy.

"It is difficult to really enjoy yourself because it is the Tour de France. No one is throwing me a retirement party just yet. Tomorrow I will give it everything I have. It will be a special day."

We will see what "everything I have" means...

Ullefan

Looks like he's given us some indication that he's going to be travelling at 55km or faster, now everyone can just ride that bit faster and maybe he will lose?

peterlip

JU is definitely ready to go. This is from his Tour de France Diary:


Tomorrow's showdown in St. Etienne boils down to two things: podium or nothing! The time trial should suit me. It is tough, but it also includes straight stretches where I can really drive it hard. When faced with Rasmussen, who has never really shined in time trials, that is certainly an advantage to me.

So the chance of a podium place is still very much on the cards! But I also want to give it my all in the pursuit of the stage win


Lifted from: http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tm...6/id=61018.html