Ignore if you are not interested in Israel/Lebanon Ceasfire...

darkboong

Just keeping score... The "provocations" (as the apologists for Israel would call them) so far are :

August 13th
Ceasefire commences.
Two hours later an IDF patrol kills 3 militants (or so they claim)

August 19th
IDF conducts a "commando" raid near Baalbek (60 miles from the Blue Line).
IDF conducts airstrikes in the area.

August 21st
IDF claims that it shot dead 3 suspected Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon.

All sourced from the BBC which in turn sourced them from the Israeli authorities. I have not seen any reports of Hezbollah attacking the IDF or Israel since the ceasefire took hold, if anyone has seen reports, let me know times dates and sources.

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limerickman

The incursion in to the Bekaa Valley by the IDF - under the pretence of trying to prevent arms shipments - was the breaking of the ceasefire.

The problem for the Zionists is that Hezbollah's resistance in Lebanon during the Israeli 34 day invasion, has seriously rattled Israel.

The presumption was that the IDF would easily rout Hezbollah.

Obviously the Zionists have short memories : Hezbollah escorted Israel out of Lebanon following a long protracted engagement which finished in 2000.

The Zionists will try to aggrevate the situation - in order to try to engage Hezbollah.
Hezbollah would be correct to resist for as long as possible.
By staying intact - they have won the battle thus far.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

2FAST4U

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limerickman

Fact is Israel was escorted out of Lebanon in 2000.

In addition, Israel assumed that their latest invasion of Lebanon would have resulted in a "quick victory" against Hezbollah.
Fact is Hezbollah is still intact.

Reminds one of Vietnam.
My friend.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

2FAST4U

Ok...you can think whatever you want...Your fact is misrepresented. I don't think they were looking for quick victory so much as exposing hezbozo's for what they are. Hezbozo is not intact....and if they attempt to launch more of those piss ant missiles, there will be more fighting. Does not remind me of vietnam in the least...I think Iraq would be closer to that example than this latest round with the hezbozo's...

Sorry to say but we must agree to disagree...

BTW aren't you going to follow my expert technical advice?

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[/b]drinking ale from a barrel[/b]

limerickman

Hezbollah is intact.

As regards your technical advise, we discussed this before.
Maybe you can't remember that far back.
Still I'm sure it'll be interesting this time round.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

darkboong

The stated aims (as declared by Olmert) were (roughly in chronological order) :
1) Recover the two soldiers.
2) Prevent Hezbollah firing artillery into Israel (note : This occurred after the IDF had attacked Lebanese civillians some 80 miles away from the border).
3) Destroy Hezbollah.
4) Destroy everything that could remotely be used by Hezbollah, including schools, hospitals, playing fields, apartment blocks, petrol stations, bridges, airports and ports.
5) Destroy UNIFIL observation posts (preferably with UNIFIL dudes inside)
6) Destroy 10 civillian apartment blocks for every rocket fired (Dan Halutz came up with that one).
7) Establish a buffer zone by taking and controling of all Lebanese turf up to the Litani.
8) Plan 7 failed so hand it off to a UN force - but keep on shelling the area anyway.
9) Kill the Hezbollah Leadership while under ceasefire.



The IDF is attacking regardless of the ceasefire, so that condition is clearly irrelevent. So far Hezbollah appear to have been very restrained in the face of repeated provocation, although I don't expect that to last. My best guess is that the next round of fights will be kicked off after massive airstrikes by the IDF. The retaliation will probably take the form of the destroying every last IDF unit on Lebanese turf that can't run away quick enough.

Quite frankly if 60,000 troops can't defeat 3000 irregulars I don't see much hope for the IDF achieving any of the stated goals in Lebanon. The bigger issue for the IDF is tha they've been shown up, they are no longer "invincible". Decades of attacking kids throwing rocks and unarmored men firing small arms with Main Battle Tanks has led to complacancy and this debacle. The only goal the IDF can adequately fulfill is the systematic destruction of every last soft (civillian) target Lebanon, which I am sure they will resume before September is out.

The IDF relied upon Wehrmacht Blitzkreig tactics, using massive airstrikes and MBTs to advance quickly. The problem is that they aren't attacking the Maginot line, they're attacking a bunch of volunteers with RPG-7s. The fact of the matter is that MBT's are only really useful for scaring people, attacking soft-targets (eg: kids throwing rocks or firing small arms) and other MBTs. Tough break that they found out the hard way, let's hope they draw the sane conclusion that they can't win through violence.

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BillM

The insanity is running rampant in this thread.

Lebanon has been bombed back into the dark ages.

Hezbollah...while intact....is in tatters.

Israel is going home to a normal life while "Hezbollah" will be cooking over a campfire and crapping in the woods for years. No power, no water, no electricity, no food, nothing. Yeah....what a victory.....woohoo....let's celebrate.

When you measure victory by simply surviving then you can count every defeated nation in the history of time as "victors".


Hezbollah bit off a lot more than it expected....they never dreamed Israel would retaliate the way they did. I bet they won't be kidnapping any Israeli citizens again in the near future.

If they do...I hope Israel doesn't stop until Lebanon is as flat as a prairie.

darkboong

Well, if that means that you don't endorse further strikes on Israel so be it. OTOH, here in the real world, Hezbollah are still very much alive.



The IDF estimated Hezbollah's fighting strength in Southern Lebanon to be ~3000 volunteers. The IDF have destroyed the homes of ~750,000 civillians, by the IDF's own estimations the people they've fucked over most are civillians. If their goal was to destory Hezbollah they've failed, if their goal was to wipe out all viable habitation south of the Litani river they have succeeded.



They have already taken more IDF soldiers prisoner in Southern Lebanon during the past 30 days.



Why don't you go and tell that to the face of the survivors of Qana ?

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limerickman

Quite.

The Zionists stated that the 34 day war was with Hezbollah - not Lebanon and not with the Lebanese people.

If we take the Zionists statement at face value (personally I would never take any statement from any Zionist at face value) - then the objective of the 34 day war was to rout Hezbollah.
In this objective, Israel failed.

Hezbollah are still intact and are playing a crucial role in the repatriation of people back to South Lebanon and they're providing funds and accomodation for people who have been displaced.

If the Zionist objective was to destroy the infrastructure of south Lebanon, to displace thousands of Lebanese citizens - then the Zionists achieved victory.

So this brings us back to the Zionists stated objective at the outset of the 34 day war.
Either the war was against Hezbollah or it was against the South Lebanese people.
In either case, Hezbollah gained in substantial credibility by withstanding the Zionists and remaining intact - and by assisting the Lebanese citizens in their repatriation.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

BillM

Yeah....you guys are good at spinning.


Israels goal was to create a buffer zone and push Hezbollah back far enough to nearly eliminate the rocket attacks.

They did so.

As for the Lebanese citizens....they allowed Hezbollah to operate freely within their country....and they unfortunately have paid the price....but if you lie down with dogs...then you get fleas.

You can spin this all you want....but if the world had not protested so vehemently then Israel would have and could have destroyed Hezbollah.....the difficulty is that Hezbollah hides behind women, children and aid workers making it very difficult.

Everything that happened lies SQUARELY on the shoulders of Hezbollah...they are responsible for every civilian death imo....if they had not decided to enter Israel, kill 8 Israelis while kidnapping 2 soldiers then this action would not have happened.

Simple.

limerickman

If you look at the chronology of events - you'll see that the world did nothing to prevent Israel invading Lebanon.
So to assert that the world stopped Israel is conjecture.

The fact of the matter is that the Token on her trip to the Middle East never endorsed a ceasefire until it became apparent that Hezbollah were not going to be removed by Zionist/IDF.
In fact the Token repeatedly stated that the USA would allow the IDF time to engage and dismantle Hezbollah's operation in Southern Lebanon.
Those engagements happened and Hezbollah remained in situ.

It is interesting to note the frequency and range of Hezbaollah attacks on Israel increased as the duration of the war extended.
After 21 days of fighting - Hezbollah launched 160 rockets in to Northern Israel.
The rate of increase in the volume of rockets fired shows that IDF offence and their creation of a buffer zone was ineffectual.



Hold on sec.

There were democratic elections in Lebanon in June 2005 - your country cited Lebanon as a haven for democracy within the Middle East, as result of this vote. Your country commended the fact that it was the first election in 29 years in the Lebanon.

The Lebanese people voted for the Hezbollah party in Southern Lebanon.
That's democracy.



Simplistic.
And revisionist.

Israel has been aggitating in that region for quite some time.
You seem to forget that it is Israel which invaded Lebanon on July 12th.

In addition, israeli actions in Gaza were further acts of provocation.
The Israeli's deliberately shelled Gaza beach on June 9th - killing innocent civilians.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

2FAST4U

Nope...you are not stating facts here my friend.

As far as our "discussion" other than you offering your thanks, I do not recall and extended conversation. However, I am curious why you haven't acted on my friendly advice......

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limerickman

Advice can be taken ......or not taken.
Maybe you'll take my advice, this time?


Your memory isn't as good as it used be.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.