Rates cuts are coming! It's June 25, 2003

Hein-Verbruggen

Yawn, a typical Jan Ulrich fan---always a loser, even in unemployment.

I have been very steady with my predictions:

1) all pro cyclist use illegal drugs (it's required)
2) Nike underwrites sporting fraud and abuses Cancer for sneaker marketing
3) Fraud, Hedge Funds/Banks, lack of underwriting rules blew up the credit markets. The commercial paper market is in paralysis and must be joted into life. Financial stocks are in free fall.
4) real estate valuations are all headed downward
5) mortgage forclosures will reach a new record high soon. (already have in the USA)
6) interest rates will decline (ECB will lower rates soon)
7) OPEC oil production will be increased--so as to lower gas prices
8) Disney-ESPN can convince most fools that football is clean and safe
9) MLB uses corked bats as well as steroids
10) the NBA employs steroid circus freaks.

Cranky---you are indeed very cranky.

Crankyfeet

So what market do you want to trade? Put up or shut up. Most of your so-called predictions aren't predictions at all. They are presently happening. Stock Market in free-fall hey? Someone forgot to tell the market. It was up 1.3% today. Foreclosures hitting new highs - no prediction there, already happening. ST Interest rates coming down - no prediction there already happening and expected by the whole investment community. Real Estate valuations coming down - yep that's what's already happening in some states. Oil production increase - yep already announced in Vienna. The market didn't seem to care though - it was already discounted.

How are you going to make any money out of these Wall Street Journal Headlines you spout as your own opinion? Tell me which market you want to take a position in. Cause an already discounted viewpoint is valueless in the market.

Or don't you know how to trade?

And stay on point Heiny Ferbuggerin. Save the "Lance and Nike are too rich for me" drivel for another totally unrelated thread topic.

Hein-Verbruggen

Real estate has far to fall. Nowhere near the bottom yet. Many hedge funds still to blow up too. Countrywide still needs more cash--BOA pants Angelo last week, still they must court Citi, JP-Morgan/Chase and others.

Avoid Pfizer but deal in Zoloft, Prozac, Lithium, steroids and sell them to disturbed consumers.

That is the same as owning a life raft dealership in a flood.

Many shortsighted people, such as yourself, will wait too long, others however, will deal now. And that is the market--not Jan Ulrich fans.

Crankyfeet

Put up or shut up. Tell me which commodity you want to buy or sell today on the Stock or Futures Market. You want to short oil. Just tell me so. You want to short stocks or bonds, just let me know. Countrywide's at $16.88 down from $40 in June. You want to short it from here. Its going bankrupt right? Just let me know.

Otherwise its just waffle.

limerickman

Hein - we have had two meetings of the ECB since the liquidity "crisis" : no movement in interest rates.

I told you earlier - read the August and September statements of the monetary policy committees of the ECB and the Bank of England, instead of waffling Hein.





Ah, the fudge.

Last month you told us that worldwide interest rates were going down.
The BoE and the ECB haven't touched interest rates in their last two monetary policy meetings.
In fact Trichet has said that the ECB will be looking to perhaps increase rates.
before Christmas 2007.

Now you say rates will go up by June 2008.
This is like your "reheats" last month when you tried to tell us about issues already in the public domain.








He hasn't and he won't.





You've been singularly incorrect in this present manifestation and your previous manifestations, Hein.




If I want information - I'll ask you about the 49'ers.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

limerickman

Exactly.
Nothing which he has stated here is new information.




Agreed.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

limerickman

The Fed's is faced with a different set of issues compared to the ECB and BoE, at present.

As I understand it - the Fed is in an invidious position.
The US economy is beset by an increase in mortgage foreclosures.
In addition because the US economy is also dependent on continued consumer spending, it (Fed) feels that it has to drop rates in order to stall foreclosures and to keep consumer spending up.
The Fed has concerns about possible recession, if rates are maintained at a high (relative) level.

In Europe and Britain, economic activity has been expanding over the past 18 - 24 months.
The downside to this expansion is inflation.
The ECB started moving rates up during this period because Germany and France (and the rest of Europe) show serious signs of inflationary pressure.
Ditto Britain.
Inflation is the main concern here in Europe.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Hein-Verbruggen

Europe and Asia live via credit and a healthy credit system. That system died last month. I was paying attention. Europe will trend downward unless and until this crisis is treated with massive steroids (lower rates). DEFLATION and recession are Europe's chief problem as of last August. Look forward, not in a foggy rear view mirror.

Today Ben Bernanke lectured Bundesbank--Ben was reminding Lim that all central bankers must participate in rate reductions. (US dollar needs help)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/

And Lim---I said all central banks will LOWER rates over many months. (one year to two years of rate cuts) That will occure as I wrote and as Jean Claude Trichet indicated in Italy yesterday. Rate hikes are OVER.

By June 2008 rates will be much lower than today and all this a great news for steroid-based economic action. Wall Street will pay big bonuses again.

I am quite correct about the credit crisis we are in. It is historic and ECB cannpt dance out of this mess w/o drastic action, sooner or later.

btw: the Dow up today on little volume. Countrywide fell below the BOA option price of $18 down to $16. The DOW is headed lower until ECB cuts rates.

Just you watch.

ps: I won't give financial advice to people living in a media bubble.

limerickman

Bernie can lecture whomever he wishes to - fact is the ECB maintained rates at the August and Sept meetings.
As did the BoE.

Bernie's lowered his country's rates : he had no choice.





A few weeks ago you said all rates would be dropping NOW.
They haven't.
BoE and ECB have keep rates at the same level 6 weeks after this "crisis" story broke.

Keep fudging.



You're not.




Big deal.

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

limerickman

Wrong and wrong again.

Read what Trichet actually said - instead of waffling.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...F%7D&siteid=rss


LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank, on a day in which it injected $57 billion (42 billion euros) into the banking system, held interest rates steady Thursday, opting to wait for markets to settle down before a further rate tightening.

The ECB, which sets interest rates in the 13 countries that use the euro as their currency, kept rates at 4%, as economists had increasingly expected following a rocky August in debt and equities markets. The decision was unanimous.

Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB's president, said the central bank needs to gather more data before making any decisions, even though there are indications that the fundamentals of the European economy are "strong."
"We have a high level of uncertainty," the central banker said at a press conference.

The European Central Bank had never before held interest rates in the month after Trichet had declared that the ECB was watching monetary developments with "strong vigilance."

The ECB has been gradually raising rates from the level of 2% since December 2005.

But Trichet has always insisted that the central bank never "pre-committed" on interest rates.
And he still maintained a somewhat hawkish posture on Thursday, saying how important it was to anchor inflationary expectations and that rate policy was still "accommodative."
"The dis-anchoring of inflationary expectations would be the worst thing to do in the current situation," he said.

But Trichet didn't repeat the phrase "strong vigilance" as he did in August.
"Not to mention 'strong vigilance' was a bit of a surprise, but as we have learned over the past four weeks, the power of those code words has weakened," said Rainer Guntermann, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort.

In response to spiking overnight and three-month rates that banks lend to each other, the ECB has been pouring billions of euros into the banking system, including Thursday's one-day tender operation. Trichet also announced that it would undertake another longer-duration tender.

Trichet said he was "very proud" of those actions and made pains to differentiate between the money markets in the short term and monetary policy for the longer term.

"The market has to function at whatever rate," Trichet said.
Overnight euro rates at least on Thursday did come down in response to the ECB's actions, though three-month rates weren't moved, according to data from the British Bankers Association.
Dresdner's Guntermann pointed out that whatever Trichet insisted, there clearly was a link between the actions - or else rates would have been hiked on Thursday.

Though he still thinks the ECB will try to raise rates to 4.25% by the end of the year, Guntermann said the "window of opportunity is narrowing" for it to raise rates this year.
At Citigroup, Jose Alzola said with underlying inflation under control and the possibility that market problems persist, the ECB might not have much to do on interest rates.
"The ECB probably will end up keeping official rates at 4% for a prolonged period of time," the economist said

__________________
.."But finally the last thing I’ll say to the people who don’t believe in cycling, the cynics and the sceptics. I'm sorry for you. I’m sorry that you can’t dream big. [I]I'm sorry you don't believe in miracles. You should believe in these athletes, and you should believe in these people. I'll be a fan of the Tour de France for as long as I live. And there are no secrets" - this is a hard sporting event and hard work wins it - Armstrong 2005 TDF
morelike hypocrisy.

Crankyfeet

Name which years barring the 30's in the US when "DEFLATION" was a problem. Show one piece of evidence that the ECB have stated that they are worried about DEFLATION since last August.

I see you have adopted my US currency reference to your "all rates must go down" mantra.

So are the ECB lowering rates to help out the US currency or because they are in a credit mess? Which is it Hein?

Only newspapers quote the DOW. It is nearly meaningless as an index. A handful of stocks where a $100 stock is worth four times as much value as a $25 stock. As if the price value means anything to the weight of a company's affect on the market. Now you are just confirming that you are an outsider.


That's because your media-derived headline regurgitation would be worthless to someone living in a media bubble. They would have already read your predictions in newspapers before you made them yourself.

Crankyfeet

The Peoples Bank of China raised its interest rate yesterday for the fifth consecutive time since March. And the yuan is pegged to the US dollar! Mmmm....

Hein-Verbruggen

That's a 25 basis point rate cut on Tuesday, September 18. Just the start.

I realize how squirrelly you are on clarity.

More rates cuts coming for the next 18 months to two years by ECB too.

The commercial credit crisis is an historic economic threat.

Thanks for reading.

Crankyfeet

I hope they do drop the interest rate Sept. 18. Most people are predicting it. It won't be a surprise. It's what's expected and what's needed. Global interest rates - a different story. Not to mention that the effect on long term interest rates is of much more importance.

Hope you're learning something here Heiny or I'm wasting my time. Though tying you up in this forum does have some benefit to the members in the other forums.