Silence Lotto - might be regretting Juffre and Horner leaving

thunder

who are the support for Evans, can they do the job?

in order of final lieutenant

Popovych
Cioni
Vansummeren
Van Huffel
Brandt
Aerts
Hoste

that is pretty sparse. It starts to look adequate with Horner, and with Juffre. I mean, that would cost them about 300thou Euros max to buy those two guys.

thunder

Jurgen Vandenbroeck probably 10th man, but could come in for
Wim Van Huffel, Brandt or Aerts.

Crankyfeet

But don't you get the impression that Cadel likes to play the lone wolf? I got the impression that Horner was only hanging around on the climbs in case Cadel blew up or something and he could cradle him into the finish or back to the lead pack.

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thunder

no, he would like someone like Heras to lead him out, the final kms, until Evans could use his final reserves in the last km, if he decided it was worth it, to tax himself, or save it for tomorrow.

The reason Horner was at the back of the last ten is, Evans was never gonna give up his spot at 4th wheel or 5th wheel, on the back of Contador, Rass or LL, to Horner, because he did not want Horner's wheel, because Horner would be gone before any of the above.

If the competitors attacked, Horner would be the first one gone, so makes no sense to take Horner's wheel, and have to cross the one bike-length gap or more if they attack. Just stay on your competitors wheel. That is what Evans did.

If Horner was stronger, he could have taken Horner's wheel.

Understood?

Crankyfeet

Yeah... so you just contradicted the title of your thread unless I'm mistaken... . What was the big added value of Horner to Evans?

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thunder

Horner slots in before Popo. Popo is final lieutenant, and Cioni goes back down the rung, perhaps behind Juffre.

I like a team of

Popo
Horner
Juffre
Cioni
Vansummeren
Aerts
Hoste

Evans/Mcewen

always nice to have a few extra guys, one has a bad day, a couple to get bidons on the queen stage etc.

Crankyfeet

Seriously dude. You should be a DS or working for a bike team in some capacity (unless you already do).

BTW - How late is it in Oz??? Or do you live in the US?

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thunder

8am

Crankyfeet

Do you think that Horner's high relative placing in the TdF 2007 GC ranks was just a marketing effort by him to impress other teams and raise his $$value?

Do you think that he compromised his support role at all by trying to finish strongly on stages where he didn't have to last year?

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thunder

it depends, Armstrong arbitraged Spanish riders and Portuguese riders to help the P&L of Tailwind Sports.

He got those Tour domestiques at knock down prices from the Spanish peloton. He did pay over the mark for Heras, I think Marc Gorski paid about 2 million per year US dollars, for Heras, and Stapelton and Armstrong were pissed at that in the round up.

So, if Horner is Spanish, his price is low. If he is a Frenchman, 25 yo, and rides 14th but as a domestique, he probably gets a minimum of 500 thousand Euro. I know he was not even offered 200 thou Euro. So, that puts it in perspective. In Spain, perhaps he might get 80-100 Euro. Not much.

Depends on so many factors. Only about 10-12 guys will ride for GC at the Tour. The guys who will not finish in the top 10, ride as stage hunters. So, it skews things, a finish between 10-20. You might get 15 minutes on a break in a flat transition stage. That has little bearing on your GC ride, and does not tax your legs so much for GC mountain climbing stages.

So 14th, that could easily be 20th, but if he was not a domstique, it could easily be 8th? Who knows, it is random theory.

Horner was worth 200 grand Euro. He could take someone to the last 5 kms of the Queen stage in his best form. Pay him what he is worth, dont screw him over.

oely

Evans whinges about all sorts of things but hes within his rights as a team leader to complain about Lotto's treatment of "his" domestiques.

These days i rank Horner as good or better help than Cioni.

thunder

definitely much better than Cioni.

But if Cioni gets to ride the Tour without riding a Giro first, he might be there on the last climb for the bottom few kms. He wont be there in the last 10-5km, but he might be able to be there at 10km to go, with a final bidon.

Smilf

On the final climb of a day, no horner isn't of too much use. On the climbs before that he would be of a bit more use.

But where he would really come in handy is if Cadel actually took the yellow jersey at any point in the race and had to control the race. Without some good teammates the team gets ridden into the ground.

thunder

Smilf, someone gotta slot in after Popo.

Horner cannot do more than last year, which was good, but stuff all contribution towards winning and defending the jersey if you are the last man.

He needs to be second last man.

Then Cioni and Vansummeren can slot in, back down the list.

Aerts finished top 20 in the Tour once, certainly, if the entire peloton is clean, it is indicative he can climb, he won Flech Wallonne in 2001. So he could pull his finger out and find some form.

With Horner and Juffre, they could defend. Without them, they will struggle. Christophe Brandt better come back in his best form, after the horrific injury of late 06.

If Van Huffel recaptures his Giro 05 form, he might go ok.

And Jurgen Vandenbroeck is about age to be blooded.

Matt Lloyd is an outside chance.

You have about 11-12 in the outer squad. With Horner and Juffre one would be comfortable. As it is, I would be nervous in yellow knowing the team perhaps would falter.