There's a first time for everything

Bro Deal

Evans attacks and wins.

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news...cle_181372.html

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"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

TheDarkLord

Interesting to see Unibet's odds for TdF:

Unibet.com's current odds for victory in the 2008 Tour de France
Cadel Evans 3.00
Denis Menchov 7.00
Alejandro Valverde 8.00
Carlos Sastre 9.00
Damiano Cunego 17.00
Michael Rogers 18.00
Andy Schleck 20.00
Oscar Pereiro 25.00
Yaroslav Popovych 30.00
Thomas Dekker 30.00
Jose Angel Gomez Marchante 30.00
Christophe Moreau 30.00

thunder

he has attacked in Liege in 2004, I think you forget. I think an attack on St Nicholas in Liege speaks to his ability.

That broke the field, but Vino and Voigt had the gap already.

I think he finished 5th behind Boogy and Bettini, but he made the race.

And he attacked on about stage 15 in the Tour in 04. But that was when the GC actors allowed him to attack.

Then he attacked on about stage 8 this year with Contador, on the downhill mtn finish stage Soler won.


I agree he follows wheels. But if he follows wheels because he does not have the legs, must be asked first. And everyone saw how hot Rass was.

He came second in the first tt, and second in the last tt, where Levi got his bus gas and blood transfusion.

Lets talk facts, I dont like Evans, think he is a whinger, but he is a very talented rider, and I dont think he has one of the eggregious doping programs like Disco/Rasmussen.

I may be wrong on that however.

confusedfan

Stage 16 in the 2005 Tour - in 2004 he was with T-mob and they didn't pick him for the Tour team ...

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thunder

change the 04's to 05's with Lotto.

padawan

I'd put Andy Schleck up a bit and Oscar Pereiro down a bit. Sorry but Oscar should never have won a tour (2nd or 1st - take your pick depending on how you feel about Flandis). The only thing more outrageous than Floyd Landis recovery of over 8 minutes is Oscar Pereiro hanging in with the big guns on those last few climbs and then pulling out the time trial of his career. Sorry, I rant.

Good on Evans for the win. I would not be sorry to see him win the Tdf this year. I can think of lots of Pros I would rather not see on the podium.

Bro Deal

I would give better odds for Menchov. Moreau's odds are too good.

In fact I think all the odds are farked up. I would tighten everything up. Evans is surely the favorite, but there are fewer ITT kilometers this year. There are a lot of riders who have a decent shot at winning, but the odds don't reflect that.

__________________
"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

Crankyfeet

IMO the dark horses on that list are Rogers and Cunego. Both really untrialled in a full focussed effort in the TdF.

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Bro Deal

I would say Rogers odds should be worse than Cunego. Rogers has never shown he can consistently climb with the big boys. He seems fragile, sort of the opposite of Evans, who just plods along and never really melts down but never shows much inspired racing either.

Cuengo has won a GT, but that was a long time ago. I think Cunego was seriously juiced when he won the Giro and has now cut back. He's a step below where he used to be. I still think he has a decent shot at the podium if he truly peaks for the Tour and does not get distracted by the Giro.

__________________
"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

Crankyfeet

You can't really judge him (Rogers) on last year's race. That accident was just bad luck. The guy can TT with the best (World Championship gold?) and when he went down he was climbing at the front. I don't know enough about the guy as a climber though, and my experience watching pro cyclists pales next to the Bros, lims, and thunders of this forum (to mention just three guys here out of a bunch of 50+ who supercede my experience.... )

I do think that a team leader though should be given a lot more edge than a support guy. What happened last year with Disco and Rabo was quite rare, was it not (the changing of the team leader mid-race)? How does a reasonably probable scenario pan out where Andy Schleck suddenly comes into contention if Sastre is the Queen Bee?

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Runitout

Bro, I'd agree with that about both Rogers and Cunego - and remember that Cunego was given a handy escape in the Giro that netted him lots of time. That's why Simoni was so dark - he gave cheap time to his teammate and had it used against him.

Rogers has never been able to hold it with the very top riders, but if they drop down to 400W, I think he will be in the mix. Depends on how well prepared they are this year.

Thunder - I recall another few times Evans attacked - for one, Lombardia 2004. IIRC, he went hard with a few K to go, but was chased back by Basso and Cunego. He wanted to go again with a couple of km to go but T-Mobile ordered him to lead it all out for Nardello - so he sat it out at the front... and Nardello dropped off the back.

He also attacked in the Tassie Tour in 1998 and 1999 - won each time with a go up Mt Wellington. Beat Nathan O'Neill in 99, (and maybe in the prologue too).

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And saying so to some
Means nothing; others it leaves
Nothing to be said.

Bro Deal

Rogers can (or used to be able to) time trial with the best at a single day time trial event. In GTs he has not been so good. I don't think he recovers well. Maybe he's relatively clean.

Rogers strikes me as a rider who can do half a GT well before fading in the latter half. I have a hard time seeing him winning.

We'll have to get Thunder's opinion. He's da man.

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"You are like the wind and I like the lion. You form the tempest. The sand stings my eyes and the ground is parched. I roar in defiance but you do not hear. But between us there is a difference. I, like the lion, must remain in my place. While you like the wind will never know yours." -- Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, Lord of the Riff, Sultan to the Berbers, Last of the Barbary Pirates

Crankyfeet

That's what Levi used to be like at Gerolsteiner, before he moved to Disco and learned the technique of fast cadence and met a nicer doctor.

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Cobblestones

Good for Cadel,

Cheers mate