2008 Tour de France Stage 17 - Wednesday, July 23: Embrun - L'Alpe-d'Huez, 210.5 km

Powerful Pete

If all is as it should be Kirchen should be minutes behind at the end of the stage. With Cunego, in the second or third mini group if he is doing very well that particular day.

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From what I've seen so far, it should be but the attacks must come BEFORE the Alpe otherwise its Menchov's, I can't see Evans winning now.

Anticyclone

Depends on the previous day - if Cunego does poorly on Tuesday then he may be able to attack early on this day and try to stay away - pretty much what he did in 2006 when he came second.

Anticyclone

I think there is likely to be a battle raging between the main contenders. CSC may try and put people ahead but then Lotto may try to as well. If they can put someone up there who can ride fast between the Croix de Fer and the Alpe then he may have a chance of limiting his losses. Given that Garmin-Chiptole and Rabobank may also be thinking that a man there would be useful then it could be a very tactical stage. The win could go to someone who is able to follow the right attacks and not have to put in too much work. Valverde seemed to be going well on sunday - if he is able to maintain that form then he could be the one to take the stage.

Crankyfeet

But how much time are they going to get on the last part of Croix de Fer? There's 40 km (mostly descent) between the peak of C de F and the base of the Alpe d'Huez. If they were able to get even a few minutes... that wouldn't be that hard to bridge in the next 40km, would it?

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Anticyclone

Depends how many people are away and how many people are chasing. I must say that i dont like the thought of Frank Schleck doing a daredevil descent to try and stay away though.

TheDarkLord

Also depends on the weather and how technical the descent is.

TheDarkLord

Kirchen has performed better than Cunego so far. If previous stages are a guide, I expect both to lose a few minutes to the others.

stilesiii

Is it possible that they let Valverde go, or is he too much of a threat.

If he tries to go balls out, I think the Maillot Jaunne has to let him go.

He looked good Sunday, he may be in a position to get himself back into this thing either Tuesday or Wednesday.

Wouldn't that make for some drama.

jhuskey

This stage and the Tuesdays stage are set for the guys with the big engines that can come out day after day and still grind up the climb.
I don't expect to see any long blistering uphill sprints just a bunch of guys trying to not go out the back of the group and be dropped.
This stage may be not define this years winner but it should certainly indicate who won't be.

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Cobblestones

There's 5 guys who could conceivably win in Paris. So far, I would say Evans has still the best chances. He should ride defensively, which should fit him well and then save himself for Saturday. Menchov lost time on the decent today. He has to make time on Evans tomorrow (~2 min) to survive Saturday. Kohl will also need to make at least 2 min on Evans. If these two go together, they could put sufficient time into Evans. Then we have Frank and Sastre. Although Sastre rode a better 1st TT than Kohl, since he's about 1/2 a min behind Evans, he'd need to get about 3 min on Evans tomorrow. Frank's 1st TT was the worst of the 5 top riders.

Seems to me that CSC not only has to put time into Evans, but also into Menchov and Kohl (at least a minute). IMHO they have to decide who's going to sacrifice himself for the other. Look at how much help Andy has been once he stopped being a contender. Sastre seems slightly weaker than Frank.

Best case scenario for Saturday would be (gaps on Alpe d'Huez)
1) a CSC rider (Frank, possibly Sastre)
2) 1-2 min down, Kohl+Menchov
3) ~3 min down, Evans
This would make for a very interesting final ITT and possibly even some fireworks during the transitional stages.

Ullefan

The biggest question for CSC is who they see as their main threat?

Could F.Schleck gain 2+ mins on Evans on Alpe d'huez? Evans is not a
super climber and he will lose time, but its a gamble if they leave it to the
final climb and Evans only loses ~1min, even 1.5 mins should be enough of a buffer for Evans come the final TT. Then again, I can't see them trying to drop Evans on the Croix de Fer, you have to remember F.Schleck is not a proven tour rider, he too may blow if they ride too hard too early. I see CSC riding conservatively/tempo until they come to d'huez, but they risk Evans just holding on. Menchov has lost the status as an immediate threat to CSC now.

Kohl is a dark horse.

I can't see how CSC won't want to control the race until the final climb

Cobblestones

Even if you take Evans out of the equation, Kohl did a better 1st TT than Frank. Menchov did better than both. Without Evans, Menchov would be the favorite right now to win in Paris with Kohl maybe on second. CSC needs to put time into ALL of them. Otherwise they might not even podium in Paris. It would be Frank and Carlos on 4th and 5th.

Ullefan

Fair enough. When Menchov was only 30 something seconds back, my feeling was CSC would try something on the penultimate climb, but at over 1 min back, maybe they'd put their eggs in one basket and leave it till the final climb, of course they still have to gain time on Menchov/Evans. Maybe they might try to blow out Kohl out the back before d'huez?

Happiest of the contenders? Evans - he only needs to hang in there which he seems to do well with.