Lance won't win #5 this year

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 18:12:23 +0000, David Patnaude wrote:

> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then crush
> the field again in the time trial.

You got that right for sure.

Which stage will be the ~Alamo Stage~ do you think?

isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in
that time trial. hence ullrich will need to do more than just staying close in the mountains. now is
he capable of doing this on his own without the aid of having the aid of the kind of climbers that
lance has surounded himself with. "David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then crush
> the field again in the time trial.

"dwjones" <[email protected]> wrote in news:[email protected]:

> isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in
> that time trial. hence ullrich will need to do more than just staying close in the mountains. now
> is he capable of doing this on his own without the aid of having the aid of the kind of climbers
> that lance has surounded himself with. "David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in
> message news:[email protected]...
>> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
>> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then
>> crush the field again in the time trial.
>
>

only the US version of letour.fr is showing stage 19 as a TTT. It is an individual TT. I think Lance
needs to make a statement tomorrow or he will not survive the attacks in the Pyrennes. He has not
made any statment yet and the other teams are seeing him as weak. He has said in the past that he
thinks the competitor worthy of winning the yellow should also win the time trials to show that they
are the strongest rider. We'll see.

DP

"dwjones" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> isn't the final time trial a team time trial?

why do we have to keep having this discussion?

"David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> "dwjones" <[email protected]> wrote in news:[email protected]:
>
> > isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's
> > in that time trial. hence ullrich will need to do more than just staying close in the mountains.
> > now is he capable of doing this on his own without the aid of having the aid of the kind of
> > climbers that lance has surounded himself with. "David Patnaude" <[email protected]>
> > wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> >> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll
> >> lose the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and
> >> then crush the field again in the time trial.
> >
> >
>
> only the US version of letour.fr is showing stage 19 as a TTT. It is an individual TT. I think
> Lance needs to make a statement tomorrow or he will not survive the attacks in the Pyrennes. He
> has not made any statment yet

Sure he has. He said, "I am not nearly as strong as before and I will be very lucky if I can pull
together a win this year". Like all champions, Lance spoke with his legs.

> and the other teams are seeing him as weak. He has said in the past that
he
> thinks the competitor worthy of winning the yellow should also win the
time
> trials to show that they are the strongest rider. We'll see.
>
> DP

I vaguely remember the same comments about Santiago Botero from last year's tour.

Does anybody remember what happened with Santiago Botero?

"David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then crush
> the field again in the time trial.

Botero won the ITT "Corey Green" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
news:[email protected]...
> I vaguely remember the same comments about Santiago Botero from last
year's
> tour.
>
> Does anybody remember what happened with Santiago Botero?
>
>
> "David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in
the
> > mountains, he'll lose the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just
needs
> > to stay close in the mountains and then crush the field again in the
time
> > trial.

David Patnaude <[email protected]> wrote in news:[email protected]:

> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then crush
> the field again in the time trial.

Jan is not the climber he was in 96-97 and will be fortunate to limit his losses in the pyreenes to
3-4 minutes. He lost 1.24 to Lance on Alpe d´Huez and Lance was not even at his best that day,
riding with a rubbing brake for most of the stage.

Yes, Lance gave up more time to Ullrich than he wanted. Yes, Lance got beat again in the first time
trial of the Tour. Yes, Lance beat every other competitor. No, Lance hasn't made a single attack
yet. Yes, Lance is saying the same stuff he has said every year about not feeling this, and having
this concern him, and that Ullrich is his primary competitor.

I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference is between Lance
and Ullrich.

Including today Jan and Lance have competed against each other four times in ITT's in the TdF.

1999 - No Jan..

2000 - Only 1 ITT. Lance beat Jan by 25 seconds. Lance beats Jan by an overall 6'02". That makes 5'
37" gained by Lance in the TTT and mountains.

2001 - ITT#1 - Lance wins by 1 minute. ITT #2 - Lance wins by 1'39" Lance beats Jan by an overall
6'44". That makes 4'05" gained by Lance in the TTT and mountains.

2002 - No Jan.

2003 - ITT #1 - Jan wins by 1'36"

So let's suppose that Lance loses another 1'30" on the last time trial of the tour. That makes three
minutes lost in ITT events. If we take the smallest amount that Lance gained in the mountains and
TTT of 4'05" means that he should still win by a minute over Jan. Lance has already shown that his
team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and took advantage of that already.

So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion that it is all over for Lance.
Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the only real change I see this year is that Jan has put
forth some spectacular ITT's.

"David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then crush
> the field again in the time trial.

Anyone still jumping on that Iban Mayo band wagon?

"David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then crush
> the field again in the time trial.

So last year is similar to this year ---- so far.

I remember hearing a lot of people saying Botero would climb with Lance in the mountains. Anyone
remember what happened to Botero in the mountains after the first time trial?

"goulot" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> Botero won the ITT "Corey Green" <[email protected]> a écrit dans le message de
> news:[email protected]...
> > I vaguely remember the same comments about Santiago Botero from last
> year's
> > tour.
> >
> > Does anybody remember what happened with Santiago Botero?
> >
> >
> > "David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> > news:[email protected]...
> > > Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in
> the
> > > mountains, he'll lose the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just
> needs
> > > to stay close in the mountains and then crush the field again in the
> time
> > > trial.
> >
>

"Corey Green" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> I vaguely remember the same comments about Santiago Botero from last
year's
> tour.
>
> Does anybody remember what happened with Santiago Botero?

Sorry Charlie. Ullrich is not the same rider as Botero. Botero has NEVER even finshed ON the podium
while Ullrich has never finished off the podium.

>
>
> "David Patnaude" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in
the
> > mountains, he'll lose the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just
needs
> > to stay close in the mountains and then crush the field again in the
time
> > trial.

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 20:39:26 GMT, "Corey Green" <[email protected]> wrote:

>Yes, Lance gave up more time to Ullrich than he wanted. Yes, Lance got beat again in the first time
>trial of the Tour. Yes, Lance beat every other competitor. No, Lance hasn't made a single attack
>yet. Yes, Lance is saying the same stuff he has said every year about not feeling this, and having
>this concern him, and that Ullrich is his primary competitor.
>
>I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference is between Lance
>and Ullrich.
>
>Including today Jan and Lance have competed against each other four times in ITT's in the TdF.
>
>1999 - No Jan..
>
>2000 - Only 1 ITT. Lance beat Jan by 25 seconds. Lance beats Jan by an overall 6'02". That makes 5'
>37" gained by Lance in the TTT and mountains.
>
>2001 - ITT#1 - Lance wins by 1 minute. ITT #2 - Lance wins by 1'39" Lance beats Jan by an overall
>6'44". That makes 4'05" gained by Lance in the TTT and mountains.
>
>2002 - No Jan.
>
>2003 - ITT #1 - Jan wins by 1'36"
>
>So let's suppose that Lance loses another 1'30" on the last time trial of the tour. That makes
>three minutes lost in ITT events. If we take the smallest amount that Lance gained in the
>mountains and TTT of 4'05" means that he should still win by a minute over Jan. Lance has already
>shown that his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and took advantage
>of that already.
>
>So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion that it is all over for
>Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the only real change I see this year is that Jan
>has put forth some spectacular ITT's.

He has lost less in the first mountain stages, he has lost less in the TTT and he's in better shape
than at any time since 1997. Go figure ...

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 20:30:52 GMT, jhx99 <[email protected]> wrote:

>David Patnaude <[email protected]> wrote in news:[email protected]:
>
>> Unless Lance really does something amazing during the next few days in the mountains, he'll lose
>> the race in the final time trial. Ullrich just needs to stay close in the mountains and then
>> crush the field again in the time trial.
>
>Jan is not the climber he was in 96-97 and will be fortunate to limit his losses in the pyreenes to
>3-4 minutes. He lost 1.24 to Lance on Alpe d´Huez

... which is less than he lost two years ago, so will just wait and see.

"Gerrit Stolte" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 20:39:26 GMT, "Corey Green" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >Yes, Lance gave up more time to Ullrich than he wanted. Yes, Lance got beat again in the first
> >time trial of the Tour. Yes, Lance beat every other competitor. No, Lance hasn't made a single
> >attack yet. Yes, Lance is saying the same stuff he has said every year about not
feeling
> >this, and having this concern him, and that Ullrich is his primary competitor.
> >
> >I don't think people are looking hard enough to see what the difference
is
> >between Lance and Ullrich.
> >
> >Including today Jan and Lance have competed against each other four times
in
> >ITT's in the TdF.
> >
> >1999 - No Jan..
> >
> >2000 - Only 1 ITT. Lance beat Jan by 25 seconds. Lance beats Jan by an overall 6'02". That makes
> >5' 37" gained
by
> >Lance in the TTT and mountains.
> >
> >2001 - ITT#1 - Lance wins by 1 minute. ITT #2 - Lance wins by 1'39" Lance beats Jan by an overall
> >6'44". That makes 4'05" gained
by
> >Lance in the TTT and mountains.
> >
> >2002 - No Jan.
> >
> >2003 - ITT #1 - Jan wins by 1'36"
> >
> >So let's suppose that Lance loses another 1'30" on the last time trial of the tour. That makes
> >three minutes lost in ITT events. If we take the smallest amount that Lance gained in the
> >mountains and TTT of 4'05" means that he should still win by a minute over Jan. Lance has
> >already shown
that
> >his team can dust Jan and Bianchi in the mountains when they need to and took advantage of that
> >already.
> >
> >So I don't really understand how people are jumping to the conclusion
that
> >it is all over for Lance. Sure there isn't much margin for error, but the only real change I see
> >this year is that Jan has put forth some
spectacular
> >ITT's.
>
> He has lost less in the first mountain stages, he has lost less in the TTT and he's in better
> shape than at any time since 1997. Go figure ...
>

Agreed - but he has to limit his losses in four consecutive mountain stages to about a minute or
less. If he is more than 1'30" behind going into the final time trial it isn't going to be as simple
as everyone is making it out to be.

On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones" <[email protected]> wrote:

>isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in
>that time trial.

Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless!

"Keith" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in
> >that time trial.
>
> Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless!

I don't know about him, but I said it *never* happens and someone researched it and came up
with 1979.

1981 was the last time there were two TTT's in the same Tour. Raleigh won both the 40km stage 1b and
the 77km stage 4.

Dan

http://www.angelfire.com/realm/cvccbikers/tour/top_ten.html

Keith wrote:
> On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>>isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see ullrich's team matching lance's in
>>that time trial.
>
>
> Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless!

i am not cluesless i read that there are 2 team time trials (with the second one taking place on the
day before they enter paris) in the english version of the offical tour de france website "Nick
Burns" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
>
> "Keith" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> > On Fri, 18 Jul 2003 19:20:21 GMT, "dwjones" <[email protected]> wrote:
> >
> > >isn't the final time trial a team time trial and i can not see
ullrich's
> > >team matching lance's in that time trial.
> >
> > Are you serious, when was the last time you saw two TTT's in the TdF, you're clueless!
>
> I don't know about him, but I said it *never* happens and someone
researched
> it and came up with 1979.