Dumb and Dumber



longbottom

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Jun 14, 2006
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First of all: Congratulations to Landis. He showed heart and moral and did a great race, which (I think) will pave his way to the yellow jersey in Paris, since Sastre and Pereiro are simply not in his league in TT and Klöden is too far away. (Though you never know with this tour).

However, that does not excuse the horrid tactics used by the other teams. If any of them (besides CdE, who did what they could) had done anything to follow Landis instead of letting him gain 9 minutes, he would not have been in the race for the Posium anymore. Landis what strong, but what made him a serious contender again, was the complete inability of the other teams and their chiefs.

Phonak, T-Mobile, CSC, Rabobank and Davitamon at least already behaved very foolishly, when they let Pereiro gain half an hour last week, (And Klöden probably lost the podium place on this stage). But this really was the icing on the cake. CdE at least tried. They simply weren't strong enough, but they tried. Klöden wasn't in a very good shape today, even before the last climb, and mostly at the end of the group. Therefore I will give T-Mobile the benefit of a doubt and assume, that they didn't made any pace on the earlier climbs, because they knew Klöden had problems to follow and wanted to minimize the damage. But what CSC did, was so incredibily dumb, that they totally deserve to lose the Tour just for this. Sastre was the overall best rider of this Tour (and in fact the only one, who didn't have a weak day). He could have been a clear overall leader by now and on his way to win the Tour. But instead CSC created their own "enemies", in letting Pereiro (on Sunday) and Landis away, making the distance Sastre already pulled between himself and them absolutely worthless. Therefore the strongest rider might very well not win this Tour, and I certainly will not cheer him on anyway. (Go, Landis, Go. At least he had the balls to do anything).

Bjarne Riis was taught, that it was obviously much easier in the previous years, where he and Basso simply decided to not attack Armstrong and simply concentrate on T-Mobile and Ullrich for the second place. Now, that they actually had to use some tactics, they failed utterly.
 
Interesting and insightful observations. I'd quibble with some of them, though. Sastre may indeed be the one rider who hasn't had a "bad" day, but he's leaked a bit on several key stages. I'm not sure I'd call him the strongest rider, merely the most consistent. Letting Pereiro go on Sunday may indeed have been "foolish" by some team's objectives, but remember, before his "bonk" yesterday, Landis had reclaimed the yellow jersey and there was no reason to think he wasn't going to be able to match Pereiro yesterday. The case can be made that Landis's careful and judicious expenditures of energy may have paid dividends today, because he obviously had a lot saved up.

As for CSC, I take it you are suggesting they made a mistake not going after Landis today. From what I've read, they may not have had a choice. Their man was fairly used up after gaining as much time as possible yesterday, and several riders have been quoted as saying Landis's burst was so decisive, no one had the legs to try to stay with him. The goal was to maximize the strength in numbers to pull him back when he slowed down, but Floyd didn't perform according to script.
 
You could tell from the post-Stage interviews Bjarne was not a happy Mister (60%).
 
Well, of course I have the advance of hindsight. :) Pereiro lost half an hour in the first mountain stage, and it therefore may be understandable that he was underestimated. But still, he finished Top 10 last year and to let him this much away was a game with the fire, and obviously several riders (most notably Klöden and the TMO Team, who probably lost the Podium Place in this stage) burned themselves. And it's really not that I expected them to catch Pereiro or Landis. That wa snot necessary. What I found foolish was, that they let them that much away. Okay, Phonak obviously wanted to lose the yellow jersey last Sunday, but couldn't the others have done a bit more? Keep pereiro on a distance of 20 minutes (or even 23 or 24!) and Landis today on maybe three or four minutes, and there would have been no problem. But to let them this much away is really unfathomable for me.

I agree, however, that Sastre being the most consistent rider is probably the better word. Still, this consistancy could have made him won the tour, if CSC hadn't made the other contenders strong again.
 
rejobako said:
As for CSC, I take it you are suggesting they made a mistake not going after Landis today. From what I've read, they may not have had a choice. Their man was fairly used up after gaining as much time as possible yesterday, and several riders have been quoted as saying Landis's burst was so decisive, no one had the legs to try to stay with him. The goal was to maximize the strength in numbers to pull him back when he slowed down, but Floyd didn't perform according to script.
I think that they did have the legs to go after him in the beginning. What they lacked was the insight. The completely underestimated Landis and to be honest so did everybody else. It was a miscalculation on their part but one that you anyone could do given what happened yesterday. Rides like this happen once in 10 years or so and for sure nothing like that has happened since 99...
 
I certainly think that any of the other teams could have "invested" a bit of effort to pull back Pereiro a few minutes, with the gain being leaving Landis in yellow and Phonak another day to get even more tired. Had there been one main threat to Landis at that time, I think it would have happened. Since there were so many teams that would benefit from such an effort, I wonder if none of them wanted to step up and do the work that would benefit so many others besides themselves.

longbottom said:
What I found foolish was, that they let them that much away. Okay, Phonak obviously wanted to lose the yellow jersey last Sunday, but couldn't the others have done a bit more? Keep pereiro on a distance of 20 minutes (or even 23 or 24!) and Landis today on maybe three or four minutes, and there would have been no problem. But to let them this much away is really unfathomable for me.
 
DV1976 said:
I think that they did have the legs to go after him in the beginning. What they lacked was the insight. The completely underestimated Landis and to be honest so did everybody else. It was a miscalculation on their part but one that you anyone could do given what happened yesterday. Rides like this happen once in 10 years or so and for sure nothing like that has happened since 99...
I agree, a reasonable expectation that went awry, not an error. The wrong tactic, ex post, but OK ex ante.
 
longbottom said:
Sastre was the overall best rider of this Tour (and in fact the only one, who didn't have a weak day). Therefore the strongest rider might very well not win this Tour, and I certainly will not cheer him on anyway. (Go, Landis, Go. At least he had the balls to do anything).

Long, you are WRONG. How can you say Sastre is the strongest man? He only placed 18th in the first ITT. We have to look at everything here to make that argument. And the ITT is key.

Floyd had a rough day, but then today, battled back and dominated. Yesterday his rivals worked their asses off and so did Landis (he bonked, but still had to work hard). Then today Landis work hard ALL DAY.

Landis is the strongest rider.


As for the other teams, they def. blew it. But, it is hard to gauge when someone is out of the top 10 with that time difference. I still wouldn't have let that happen, but I am not a DS.
 
I really disagree with you longbottom. Firstly, *everyone* concidered Landis out before this stage. I saw matched bets for odds 200 on him winning the tour before this stage, so it makes total sense to be watching each other. Landis' could do what he did for 2 reasons. 1) He was strong. 2) There were 3 people contending for the win, all with approximately equal strength/chance to win it. This is a huge advantage for Landis, because the first team who chooses to spend their energy will almost certainly loose the tour to either of the two other teams who are freewheeling. The situation would have been totally different if there was only one contender for the win. In that case, Landis wouldn't have had a chance.

As for the team strength:
- Phonak probably made the biggest mistake with Pereiro. But then again, the team itself (ex captain) have proven to be relatively weak. They were saving themselves for other more likely opponents.

- T-Mob clearly has the strongest team but a rather weak leader. This stage showed that even with about as much help to Klöden as he could possibly expect, he is still not fast enough. I wonder what would have happened to Klöden on the last climb if he had not had his team mates.

- CSC. Concidering that they are riding for their nr 3 guy, with half a team, I think CSC has greatly overperformed compared to everyones expectations at the start of the tour. I mean, what excactly is it they could have done? They pretty much just have Voigt and Schleck to pull and thats excatly what they did. But these guys are worn down to the bone. How many had Sastre down for the podium again?

- Rabo. Menchov is just not strong enough.
 
JensCph said:
I really disagree with you longbottom. Firstly, *everyone* concidered Landis out before this stage. I saw matched bets for odds 200 on him winning the tour before this stage, so it makes total sense to be watching each other. Landis' could do what he did for 2 reasons. 1) He was strong. 2) There were 3 people contending for the win, all with approximately equal strength/chance to win it. This is a huge advantage for Landis, because the first team who chooses to spend their energy will almost certainly loose the tour to either of the two other teams who are freewheeling. The situation would have been totally different if there was only one contender for the win. In that case, Landis wouldn't have had a chance.

As for the team strength:
- Phonak probably made the biggest mistake with Pereiro. But then again, the team itself (ex captain) have proven to be relatively weak. They were saving themselves for other more likely opponents.

- T-Mob clearly has the strongest team but a rather weak leader. This stage showed that even with about as much help to Klöden as he could possibly expect, he is still not fast enough. I wonder what would have happened to Klöden on the last climb if he had not had his team mates.

- CSC. Concidering that they are riding for their nr 3 guy, with half a team, I think CSC has greatly overperformed compared to everyones expectations at the start of the tour. I mean, what excactly is it they could have done? They pretty much just have Voigt and Schleck to pull and thats excatly what they did. But these guys are worn down to the bone. How many had Sastre down for the podium again?

- Rabo. Menchov is just not strong enough.
Well said!!

AG2r could have sacrified Moreau to help Desser??
 
acpinto said:
Well said!!

AG2r could have sacrified Moreau to help Desser??
Tough call - help Dessel make it to the podium, or, let Moreau go for what could have been a stage victory were Landis to fade (as Leipheimer did during a somewhat similar effort a day or two ago), which was a reasonable possibility.
 
I certainly agree that everyone ruled Landis out as the Tour winner after yesterday. I did as well. But that's not a reason to let him away that much. If the other teams had made some pace, he still would have been out.

I also partly disagree with you about Klöden. He may have been not as strong today, but almost everybody (except Sastre) had at least one bad day and Klöden was extremely strong yesterday and the day before. If we want to judge each rider by just one stage, we could judge Landis by yesterday's and say "that he is just not strong enough". Which of course isn't even wrong. Normally you can't win a grand tour with such a stage like Landis had yesterday. (See Ullrich 1998, where he, like Landis this year, was probably the best rider but had one awful day. And, interestingly, Ullrich, too, attacked one day later. The difference was, that Pantani was clever enough not to let Ullrich away by such a distance, while the riders and teams today completely underestimated Landis' strength.) And while Menchov might not be that strong either, I think one could argue that he at least felt strong, considering that he attacked on the last climb, even if it was unsuccessfull in the end, since he fell back even behind Pereiro and Klöden in the end, (partly because Boogerd didn't wait for him).

I also disagree that CSC is riding with their third best rider. I always considered Sastre a good deal stronger than Julich, who wasn't really convincing ever since his third place in 1998. Admittingly Julich's crash was a loss for the team in the mountains, that's without question. But just look with how many team members CSC still was in this group. If one or two of them had been sent to assist Perreiro's team, it wouldn't have destroyed the team. Like I said, nobody expected them to catch Landis. All they had to do was making sure he didn't gain too much time, which, despite of Landis' strength should have been possible, considering that Landis was the only one making pace in the front group for nearly 200 kilometres, while there could have been five or six riders making pace in the peloton, if each team had sent one or two members.
 
But what teams should have done and could have done doesn't count in the end. They're either there or they aren't, and today they nearly sleepwalked through the stage. So what if the allegedly strongest rider isn't in a good spot? At this late stage, teams have to push the strongest rider of the day to the front if for no other reason to remain competitive and interesting to sponsors. Hell, they should have done that from Stage 1.

Why they let Floyd "The Barber" Landis scalp them like he did today I don't know. But betting that he would melt down again is just plain stupid.

"There's nothing more dangerous than a man with nothing to lose." -- Dead Can Dance
 
You would think CSC and TM would have learned from the Perreiro 30 minute escape that brought him to yellow the first time. This was big strategic blunder by Riis that probably cost Sastre a better chance at yellow.

Consider this too:

-- Everybody knows Floyd is a very strong ITTist among those GC contenders remaining. Even though he had suffered the Stage 16 collapse, he would have tomorrow to recover from it after today. Floyd will most probably beat Sastre in a long ITT like the one on Saturday.

-- There were a lot of TMers around, from the written reports (haven't seen it yet). They could have sacrificed some oft hem to keep Landis' lead more in check earlier on.

-- Floyd already said after yesterday's stage that it was not his hip. So yesterday's problems wouldn't necessarily carry on today. Apart from yesterday, Floyd had shown himself to be strong on all other stages of the Tour this year.
 
musette said:
-- There were a lot of TMers around, from the written reports (haven't seen it yet). They could have sacrificed some oft hem to keep Landis' lead more in check earlier on.
In fact, all of them were still in the group, except Sinkewitz, who was with Landis. When I watched the stage I couldn't understand them either, now I can a bit better, since Klöden hadn't his best day and road at the end of the group basically from the second climb today onwards. What could have been seen as tactic wasn't and it was only because of his teammates, who were still there on the last climb, that he didn't lose a lot of time. They brought him back to the Pereiro group several times. Particularly Sinkewitz, who later waited, was amazing. Therefore they couldn't ride faster on the climbs at this point, since their captain was in trouble. It is CSC whose tactic still is a riddle for me, particularly since Sastre was very strong today. He managed to blow up the group on the last hill without much effort.
 
I must say, they let Landis back in this one. Although judging by the way everyone else rode the Joux Plane... I think only Sastre had the legs. I think Riis' tactic was to have Sastre save himself for the final climb and take yellow from Pereiro... but unfortunately Landis had other ideas. I don't think CSC could have played it out any other way. Perhaps they could have chased sooner and reeled Landis back a little more.

If I were Riis, I'd pull a 2004 Paris-Nice and send everyone off the front on a TTT style break and hope it works. I don't think they have anything to lose by doing that. If it fails, Sastre may be too spent for the ITT and Landis rides away with yellow... or CSC rips the legs off everyone in the peloton and levels the field a little more on saturday. They effectively take a little bit of Landis' strength away... or it succeeds and rips the legs off everyone for a huge time gain for Sastre who rides a half decent TT on saturday and wins the Tour.

No matter what happens... CSC goes down in history as the team that drove the peloton crazy win or lose.
 
Yes I have to agree with LB who made some good arguments.


Bottom line is that by not working together, reacting in time, or whatever you want to call it is they handed Floyd the tour. Surely a very good argument for having reacted. Look they knew they needed to keep a cushion of a minute and a half between their team leader and Landis by Saturday. When his break reached 6 minutes, surely it was time to say enough is enough.

Other arguments against are the fact that the chasing teams were tired. But....Landis stronger than 8-10 men, indcluding the tours best climbers, working together?!! That is strange.
 
It seems that T-Mobile has drawn some consequences. The "Bild am Sonntag" (Bild on Sunday) reports, that they have fired Olaf Ludwig. "Bild", however, is the biggest German tabloid and far from being a reliable source. However, someone whom I trust and who does have some insider informations, told me that it is probably the truth and that both Ludwig's and Mario Kummer's contracts probably won't be renewed, both because of differences with the riders and "unfortunate" tactical decisions.
 
Was Ludwig making the relevant decisions, or the DSs? Maybe it was worse for Ludwig that Sastre crumbled in the last ITT. The sponsor might then argue that, if Perriero and Landis each had not gotten their respective longest breakaways,the winner could (not "would", but "could") well have been Klodie!

Meanwhile, Godefroot heads Astana next year.

This highlights Bruneel's contributions to LA's victories.
 
Peirero was not a mistake, unlike the 20 minute stage victory of a few years ago. He was an unkown quantity. Landis' effort was superhuman. Blame the other teams for not attacking? With whom? All they had this year was the challengers.

As an immigrant to an EU land from the US, am always proud when the United States achieves recognition for something other than starting and/or losing wars. 8 victories in a row.

I assume that within a few days, the french press will start accusing Landis of taking performance enhancing drugs to ease his hip pain.

John
Copenhagen