RTL: What will be the gap between first and second?



T

tholub

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In the poll on 'the speed which will win RTL'
(http://www.unicyclist.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70118), there was
little consensus. The largest cluster of answers was around 24/25 kph,
but a good number of folks think it will be significantly faster, and at
least a few think it will be significantly slower than that. RTL is a
brand new uni racing format and it will be interesting to see how it
plays out; we obviously have a lot to learn.

The next question that we don't know the answer to is, what will be the
gap between the top teams? In a bike race of this length on this sort
of terrain, we would expect very little gap at the top; the Tour of
California, which is hillier than RTL, has been won by less than a
minute each time it's been run.

There are some reasons to believe that RTL will have a bigger gap:
unicycles don't get nearly as much advantage from pack riding as bikes,
and the RTL riders are more unequal in strength than a pack of pro bike
racers. Conversely, there are reasons to believe that RTL will have a
small gap: chief among those is that it's simply not possible to go
very fast on a unicycle, so any speed differential should be small
relative to bike racing.

So, what do you think? Will it be a nail-biter down to the finish, or
will one team leave everyone else in the dust?


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I think there may be a few teams that have 3 very good riders, who can
get quite similar times, but below that level, every team will have at
least one slower rider, which will make a big difference timewise.

So if I have to guess I'd say two or three teams up at the top fighting
it out till the finish, then a big gap before the rest come in.

Joe


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This is still a little pointless, but probably less so than predicting
the average speed when we can't predict the weather. I think there will
either be one team that crushes everyone else (don't know which), or
that the finish will be within 3-5 minutes.


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johnfoss wrote:
> This is still a little pointless...



Who cares how pointless it is? It's sport. There are entire
industries devoted to pointless discussions about sports.


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joemarshall wrote:
> I think there may be a few teams that have 3 very good riders, who can
> get quite similar times, but below that level, every team will have at
> least one slower rider, which will make a big difference timewise.
>
> So if I have to guess I'd say two or three teams up at the top fighting
> it out till the finish, then a big gap before the rest come in.
>
> Joe



If there are a few top teams with equally strong riders then it is
possible they will ride as a pack and then the final gap could be very
small. Alternatively one team will break away and thrash everybody.

As to whether one slower rider in a team significantly damages the
average, that depends on their respective mileage. If riders have equal
saddle time a slower rider will have less effect than equal mileage.
Personally I'm training/planning for equal mileage even though I know
I'm the weakest rider in the team.

Keith


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johnfoss wrote:
> This is still a little pointless, but probably less so than predicting
> the average speed when we can't predict the weather. I think there will
> either be one team that crushes everyone else (don't know which), or
> that the finish will be within 3-5 minutes.



John, of course it's pointless, but all the pre-race predictions and
commentary is part of the fun. Like talking about a football match and
trying to size up how the teams will do relative to each other. Or
making your Tour de France predictions for the year.

I think there will be three very close teams, which will be well ahead
of the next 5 or 6 teams (which will be pretty close together),
followed by the tail enders.

But if one of those three teams make a mistake, or one team manages to
get away on a stage, then we could well have one team that completely
destroys all the other teams.


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So it looks like I'm the outlier on this poll; I chose 45-60 minutes.

My thinking is based on a number of timed rides we've done with other
RTL teams of various strengths. In December, Totally Doable seemed
pretty evenly matched with Yellow Line Fever; we traded back and forth
for the first 20 or 30 miles before TD finally dropped them. Over 75
miles, we wound up finishing 7 minutes ahead. In 20km a time trial we
ran this weekend, the gap between first and second was 2:20; the gap
between second and third was over a minute. Our Mount Diablo hill
climbs usually have at least 5 minutes between first and second.

I think in unicycling, some people are just faster. There are people
who I know I know I have no chance of catching, and people who I can
drop at any time. Even in the group of folks who are more closely
matched to my strength, when we do timed rides together, there are
pretty significant gaps.

So I'm thinking that there is likely to be a team who is a little
faster than everyone else, and I think that team is likely to be faster
every day. 10 minutes over the course of 200km is a difference of just
3 seconds per km; that's a 0.01 km/hr difference in average speed. I
can't imagine that pack riding will be beneficial enough to keep the
top two teams within 0.01 km/hr of each other. Especially because it's
a relay; any packs which form will be transient, and how will you ever
catch the guy who's just a little faster, once you've lost contact with
him?

There are complicating factors; a major mechanical problem or crash
will easily cost a team 5-10 minutes. If that happens to the team in
front, maybe the finish will be closer, but I'm expecting that time
gaps will be large enough that the major positions will be pretty much
decided after the time trial and crit on day 3. (And the crit will
only matter if there's a major wreck).


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I can imagine two teams from the start being head to head the whole way.
Where it becomes, not just racing RTL, but a personal race between the
two teams, and they are going to be so close to each other the whole
race, and it will only be seconds apart at the finish.


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Yes I understand the pointlessness. Also since such a race has never
been tried, it'll be interesting to see if anyone "figures out the
right formula." I have to go back in there with Tom on a bigger gap,
unless drafting is a major factor in the race, which is possible. Even
then, a gap of under 10 minutes will be pretty amazing. Stage finishers
may come in together, but holding such a small gap over 800k will be
pretty amazing.


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John Foss
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