Cars & China--God Help Us



B

B. Lafferty

Guest
From today's NY Time:

June 7, 2004
G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By
KEITH BRADSHER

EIJING, June 7 - Brushing aside slowing growth in car sales
and broader concerns about the Chinese economy, General
Motors executives announced here today that their company
and its local joint venture partners would spend more than
$3 billion by 2007 to expand operations in China.

The heavy investment, to build new factories, expand
existing ones and greatly increase G. M.'s engineering and
design activities, is the latest and largest in a series
of big investments by the world's leading automakers, all
of which are racing to profit from the world's fastest-
growing economy.

Volkswagen, Toyota, Nissan and DaimlerChrysler are all
engaged in big expansion projects here. So are their joint-
venture partners, notably the Shanghai Automotive Industrial
Corporation, First Auto Works and the Dongfeng Motor
Corporation.

The ambitious plans underline the extent to which some of
the world's largest companies continue to place big bets
here even as Beijing officials try to slow a galloping
economy in response to rising inflation.

A publication controlled by the central bank warned today of
a possible need to raise interest rates if inflation
continues to rise. Three government agencies jointly
announced restrictions today on the ability of foreign banks
to bring money into China, as a way to discourage capital
inflows that have fed growth in the money supply and
inflation.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently began
urging banks to be more cautious in lending to car buyers.
And a slew of government agencies are seeking to slow real
estate speculation, the source of many fortunes that are now
being spent partly on new cars.

After growth approached 10 percent in the first quarter, the
government has been trying to slow it to a still brisk and
possibly more sustainable annual pace of 7 percent.

Phil Murtaugh, the chairman and chief executive of G. M.
China Group, said that G. M.'s sales in May were still up
a healthy 20 percent in China from a year earlier,
although after soaring at an annual pace of 80 percent
earlier this year. China has so few cars relative to its
population that even if the economy does slow, G. M. will
still be able to sell a lot of cars here in the years
ahead, Mr. Murtaugh said.

"Let's assume there's a dip - well, there are 8 cars per
1,000 people" of driving age, he said.

H. M.'s announcement of expansion plans came two days
before the Beijing auto show opens on Wednesday, and
mark an acceleration by the company of already ambitious
growth plans.

The company said last autumn that it would increase its
annual production capacity to 865,000 cars, minivans and
pickups by 2007 from 530,000 now.

Ha. Murtaugh said today that the company's new target was to
have an annual capacity of 1.3 million vehicles in 2007.
G. M. will also expand its design and engineering center
in Shanghai so that by 2010, the operations here will be
able to produce entirely new models, as G. M. already
does in the United States and in Germany.

Even if the economy does slow somewhat in the short run, he
said, "It's only a matter of time before that 1.3 million
won't be enough."

Hb. Murtaugh insisted that anything less than brisk
expansion now would be a mistake. "For the people doing
that, I believe there's a high risk of danger, of the
margins not being there when they get there," he said,
in a thinly veiled jab at the Ford Motor Company, which
has been more cautious in China.

The more than $3 billion needed for these activities, plus a
leap in auto financing in China, will come entirely from
cash generated by the joint ventures, Mr. Murtaugh said.
While G. M. does not publicly break down its profits by
country, financial analysts say that the Chinese operations
are highly profitable because G. M. was early in entering
the market and has been benefited from high, although
declining, trade barriers that have limited imports.

I. M. has paid some dividends from its operations here to
the parent company in the United States, but has mostly
reinvested them in further expansion here.

Michael Dunne, the president of Automotive Resources Asia
Ltd., a consulting firm based in Shanghai and Bangkok, said
that in growing from less than 1 percent of the Chinese car
market to 11.5 percent now, G. M. had repeatedly bet on
further growth when other automakers had been more
pessimistic.

"They've gotten it right every step so far - their market
share is up, their profits are up," he said. "The one
question is how hard the government will weigh down on
growth - if they really come down on loans, that will hurt.`

Regulators have been worried that banks are lending
recklessly during the current boom, and have tried to
restrain them for fear that they will otherwise add to the
banks' formidable collections of nonperforming loans.

Christian Weidemann, G. M.'s director of financial
services in China, said that the company was close to
winning permission from regulators to begin offering its
own loans to dealers and car buyers through the General
Motors Acceptances Corporation, much as it does in the
United States.

Ia. Weidemann estimated that the buyers of only 18.5 percent
of the cars sold in China last year took out loans, with
the rest paying in cash. That is far below the 60 to 85
percent of buyers who use loans or leases to acquire
vehicles in developed countries, suggesting considerable
room for growth, he said.

Ib. Dunne estimated that the proportion of cars being
financed with loans in China had dropped to 10 percent
in recent weeks because of the government's regulatory
crackdown.

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company | Home | Privacy
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B. Lafferty wrote:
> From today's NY Time:
>
> June 7, 2004
> G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By KEITH
> BRADSHER
>

If we could only legislate that the automotive industry
would have to pay for one square meter of cycling road per
every car they sell, then we could build a complete network
of racingcircuits all over the world. I'm talking 30 - 100
km two lane cyclinghighways every place we wanna race ;)

--
Perre

You have to be smarter than a robot to reply.
 
"B. Lafferty" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:iF%[email protected]...
> From today's NY Time:

There has been talk for years about overhauling the old
railroad grade that runs along the Merced river to Yosemite.
The plan included a bike path along side the new rail grade
that would take tourists up to Yosemite and cut back on cars
and buses, curtailing smog, which has become worse in
California parks in recent years. There has been some
investors and the plans have been thrown around numerous
times but no action yet, if ever. That would be great ride
as I have done the old trail many times on my MB. Thing is
with bikes here is the mindset isn't like the Netherlands
where you can strap just about anything on a bike, including
groceries stacked on your handlebars. People seem to think
if you are doing chores hauling stuff around on your bike
that you are too poor to own a car, like some kind of
lowlife, bad mindset. People are embarrassed to be seen
using their bikes for everyday tasks like going to the post
office. Americans are too busy showing off their SUV's. A
car is a status symbol, and the Chinese are getting a clue
about that and following suit. It won't be long before the
Chinese will get the same mindset and be embarrassed to ride
their bike as well for errands and such. Too bad, I used to
take groceries home on my bikes sometimes, no big deal, but
to show my point, a car load of teens drove by and told me
to buy a car like I was too poor. Typical reaction, but
little did they know that I have 4 cars, all running good
and a truck. Got 4 bikes though. The more bike paths and
folks out riding in America then the more of such minsets
will disappear.
 
Per Elmsäter wrote:

> B. Lafferty wrote:
>
>>From today's NY Time:
>>
>>June 7, 2004
>>G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By KEITH
>> BRADSHER
>>
>
>
> If we could only legislate that the automotive industry
> would have to pay for one square meter of cycling road
> per every car they sell, then we could build a complete
> network of racingcircuits all over the world. I'm
> talking 30 - 100 km two lane cyclinghighways every place
> we wanna race ;)
>

And local governments being what they are, they'd notice
these happily accomodate cars.
 
Richard Adams wrote:
> Per Elmsäter wrote:
>
>> B. Lafferty wrote:
>>
>>> From today's NY Time:
>>>
>>> June 7, 2004
>>> G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By
>>> KEITH BRADSHER
>>>
>>
>>
>> If we could only legislate that the automotive industry
>> would have to pay for one square meter of cycling road
>> per every car they sell, then we could build a complete
>> network of racingcircuits all over the world. I'm talking
>> 30 - 100 km two lane cyclinghighways every place we wanna
>> race ;)
>>
>
> And local governments being what they are, they'd notice
> these happily accomodate cars.

Don't crush my dreams before they even take off ;( I could
already picture myself managing one of these circuits after
retirement. Everyday I'd ride a couple of laps around the
100 km course. Stopping here and there sweeping some sand
off in a curve. Shooting some gossip with the caféowners
enroute. Ohh yeaahh. If I'd wasted to much time talking
somewhere I'd just hitch on to the next peloton passing by.

--
Perre

You have to be smarter than a robot to reply.
 
Per Elmsäter wrote:
> Richard Adams wrote:
>
>>Per Elmsäter wrote:
>>
>>
>>>B. Lafferty wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>>From today's NY Time:
>>>>
>>>>June 7, 2004
>>>>G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By
>>>> KEITH BRADSHER
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>If we could only legislate that the automotive industry
>>>would have to pay for one square meter of cycling road
>>>per every car they sell, then we could build a complete
>>>network of racingcircuits all over the world. I'm talking
>>>30 - 100 km two lane cyclinghighways every place we wanna
>>>race ;)
>>>
>>
>>And local governments being what they are, they'd notice
>>these happily accomodate cars.
>
>
> Don't crush my dreams before they even take off ;( I could
> already picture myself managing one of these circuits
> after retirement. Everyday I'd ride a couple of laps
> around the 100 km course. Stopping here and there sweeping
> some sand off in a curve. Shooting some gossip with the
> caféowners enroute. Ohh yeaahh. If I'd wasted to much time
> talking somewhere I'd just hitch on to the next peloton
> passing by.

Sorry. Many of us here in the USA have watched millions in
Tobacco Suit money (money tobacco companies had to pay for
liability of their product) squandered, so we're used to it.
Money which could be used to promote healty exercise with
rail-trails, etc. seems to go down some rabbit hole or be
given back in tax cuts.*

* Tax cuts are allegedly used to give back some money to
spur the economy or return money that the government
doesn't need, but it's essentially a vote buying scam.
 
"Richard Adams" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Per Elmsäter wrote:
> > Richard Adams wrote:
> >
> >>Per Elmsäter wrote:
> >>
> >>
> >>>B. Lafferty wrote:
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>From today's NY Time:
> >>>>
> >>>>June 7, 2004
> >>>>G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By
> >>>> KEITH BRADSHER
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>If we could only legislate that the automotive industry
> >>>would have to pay for one square meter of cycling road
> >>>per every car they sell, then we could build a complete
> >>>network of racingcircuits all over the world. I'm
> >>>talking 30 - 100 km two lane cyclinghighways every
> >>>place we wanna race ;)
> >>>
> >>
> >>And local governments being what they are, they'd notice
> >>these happily accomodate cars.
> >
> >
> > Don't crush my dreams before they even take off ;( I
> > could already picture myself managing one of these
> > circuits after retirement. Everyday I'd ride a couple of
> > laps around the 100 km course. Stopping here and there
> > sweeping some sand off in a curve. Shooting some gossip
> > with the caféowners enroute. Ohh yeaahh. If I'd wasted
> > to much time talking somewhere I'd just hitch on to the
next
> > peloton passing by.
>
> Sorry. Many of us here in the USA have watched millions in
> Tobacco Suit money (money tobacco companies had to pay for
> liability of their product) squandered, so we're used to
> it. Money which could be used to promote healty exercise
> with rail-trails, etc. seems to go down some rabbit hole
> or be given back in tax cuts.*
>
> * Tax cuts are allegedly used to give back some money to
> spur the economy or return money that the government
> doesn't need, but it's essentially a vote buying scam.
>

So I assume you paid at the higher rate each time. A tax
cut allows a person to keep more of the money one earns.
You seem to believe that all income belongs to the
government and that we should be thrilled with what
government gives us.

As for a vote buying scam--sign me up. I want politicians to
cut taxes.
 
Sam wrote:

> "Richard Adams" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>
>>Per Elmsäter wrote:
>>
>>>Richard Adams wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>>Per Elmsäter wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>B. Lafferty wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>>From today's NY Time:
>>>>>
>>>>>>June 7, 2004
>>>>>>G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By
>>>>>> KEITH BRADSHER
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>If we could only legislate that the automotive industry
>>>>>would have to pay for one square meter of cycling road
>>>>>per every car they sell, then we could build a complete
>>>>>network of racingcircuits all over the world. I'm
>>>>>talking 30 - 100 km two lane cyclinghighways every
>>>>>place we wanna race ;)
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>And local governments being what they are, they'd notice
>>>>these happily accomodate cars.
>>>
>>>
>>>Don't crush my dreams before they even take off ;( I
>>>could already picture myself managing one of these
>>>circuits after retirement. Everyday I'd ride a couple of
>>>laps around the 100 km course. Stopping here and there
>>>sweeping some sand off in a curve. Shooting some gossip
>>>with the caféowners enroute. Ohh yeaahh. If I'd wasted to
>>>much time talking somewhere I'd just hitch on to the
>
> next
>
>>>peloton passing by.
>>
>>Sorry. Many of us here in the USA have watched millions in
>>Tobacco Suit money (money tobacco companies had to pay for
>>liability of their product) squandered, so we're used to
>>it. Money which could be used to promote healty exercise
>>with rail-trails, etc. seems to go down some rabbit hole
>>or be given back in tax cuts.*
>>
>>* Tax cuts are allegedly used to give back some money to
>> spur the economy or return money that the government
>> doesn't need, but it's essentially a vote buying scam.
>>
>
>
> So I assume you paid at the higher rate each time. A tax
> cut allows a person to keep more of the money one earns.
> You seem to believe that all income belongs to the
> government and that we should be thrilled with what
> government gives us.
>
> As for a vote buying scam--sign me up. I want politicians
> to cut taxes.

Macro Econ 101: The less revenue the Govt has for it's
bloated budget the more it has to borrow, the more it has to
borrow the more it prints, the more money in the money
supply the less it's worth. Control government spending 1st
then adjust taxes to a realistic level.

Even the president's own party were accused of discretionary
spending "like drunken sailors."
 
"Richard Adams" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Sam wrote:
>
> > "Richard Adams" <[email protected]> wrote in
> > message news:[email protected]...
> >
> >>Per Elmsäter wrote:
> >>
> >>>Richard Adams wrote:
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>>Per Elmsäter wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>>B. Lafferty wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>From today's NY Time:
> >>>>>
> >>>>>>June 7, 2004
> >>>>>>G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By
> >>>>>> KEITH BRADSHER
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>If we could only legislate that the automotive
> >>>>>industry would have to pay for one square meter of
> >>>>>cycling road per every car they sell, then we could
> >>>>>build a complete network of racingcircuits all over
> >>>>>the world. I'm talking 30 - 100 km two lane
> >>>>>cyclinghighways every place we wanna race ;)
> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>And local governments being what they are, they'd
> >>>>notice these happily accomodate cars.
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>Don't crush my dreams before they even take off ;( I
> >>>could already picture myself managing one of these
> >>>circuits after retirement. Everyday I'd ride a couple
> >>>of laps around the 100 km
course.
> >>>Stopping here and there sweeping some sand off in a
> >>>curve. Shooting
some
> >>>gossip with the caféowners enroute. Ohh yeaahh. If I'd
> >>>wasted to much time talking somewhere I'd just hitch on
> >>>to the
> >
> > next
> >
> >>>peloton passing by.
> >>
> >>Sorry. Many of us here in the USA have watched millions
> >>in Tobacco Suit money (money tobacco companies had to
> >>pay for liability of their product) squandered, so we're
> >>used to it. Money which could be used to promote healty
> >>exercise with rail-trails, etc. seems to go down some
> >>rabbit hole or be given back in tax cuts.*
> >>
> >>* Tax cuts are allegedly used to give back some money to
> >> spur the economy or return money that the government
> >> doesn't need, but it's essentially a vote buying scam.
> >>
> >
> >
> > So I assume you paid at the higher rate each time. A tax
> > cut allows a person to keep more of the money one earns.
> > You seem to believe that
all
> > income belongs to the government and that we should be
> > thrilled with
what
> > government gives us.
> >
> > As for a vote buying scam--sign me up. I want
> > politicians to cut taxes.
>
> Macro Econ 101: The less revenue the Govt has for it's
> bloated budget the more it has to borrow, the more it has
> to borrow the more it prints, the more money in the money
> supply the less it's worth. Control government spending
> 1st then adjust taxes to a realistic level.
>
> Even the president's own party were accused of
> discretionary spending "like drunken sailors."

I think discretionary spending was something like 8 or 9
percent under Reagan, 1 percent under Clinton, and somewhere
like 14 percent or higher under Bush Jr., the highest ever.

Well, I was somewhat close.

http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=139
 
On 07 Jun 2004 20:30:56 EDT, Richard Adams <[email protected]>
wrote:

>Sorry. Many of us here in the USA have watched millions in
>Tobacco Suit money (money tobacco companies had to pay for
>liability of their product) squandered, so we're used to
>it. Money which could be used to promote healty exercise
>with rail-trails, etc. seems to go down some rabbit hole or
>be given back in tax cuts.*

What suit did the federal government win and get tobacco
money? The state's got the money and most of them needed it
to plug lost revenue. I would guess that when the tobacco
money wasn't spent for related programs, it was used to keep
state tax rates from going higher.

Curtis L. Russell Odenton, MD (USA) Just someone on
two wheels...
 
Curtis L. Russell wrote:

> On 07 Jun 2004 20:30:56 EDT, Richard Adams
> <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>>Sorry. Many of us here in the USA have watched millions in
>>Tobacco Suit money (money tobacco companies had to pay for
>>liability of their product) squandered, so we're used to
>>it. Money which could be used to promote healty exercise
>>with rail-trails, etc. seems to go down some rabbit hole
>>or be given back in tax cuts.*
>
>
> What suit did the federal government win and get tobacco
> money? The state's got the money and most of them needed
> it to plug lost revenue. I would guess that when the
> tobacco money wasn't spent for related programs, it was
> used to keep state tax rates from going higher.

Which is really the problem. The money should have been used
by the states to battle smoking, pay for health care of
those affected, promote a healthy lifestyle. As politicians
are wont to do, they spend it on what would give them the
most political capital. IIRC the citizens of Michigan (where
I lived until 1997) had a referendum to force the state to
fund schools at a nominal level without taking the lottery
proceeds into account. Up to that time the state govt simply
took out of education what the lottery put in, so it never
enhanced the budget the way the people were led to believe
when they approved the lottery in the first place.
 
Sierraman wrote:
> "Richard Adams" <[email protected]> wrote
>>
>> Even the president's own party were accused of
>> discretionary spending "like drunken sailors."
>
> I think discretionary spending was something like 8 or 9
> percent under Reagan, 1 percent under Clinton, and
> somewhere like 14 percent or higher under Bush Jr., the
> highest ever.
>
> Well, I was somewhat close.
>
> http://www.factcheck.org/article.aspx?docID=139

The components of discretionary spending: http://anonymous.-
coward.free.fr/temp/spending_components.png
 
"Sierraman" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> "B. Lafferty" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:iF-
> %[email protected]...
> > From today's NY Time:
>
> There has been talk for years about overhauling the old
> railroad grade
that
> runs along the Merced river to Yosemite. The plan included
> a bike path
along
> side the new rail grade that would take tourists up to
> Yosemite and cut
back
> on cars and buses, curtailing smog, which has become worse
> in California parks in recent years. There has been some
> investors and the plans have
been
> thrown around numerous times but no action yet, if ever.
> That would be
great
> ride as I have done the old trail many times on my MB.
> Thing is with bikes here is the mindset isn't like the
> Netherlands where you can strap just about anything on a
> bike, including groceries stacked on your handlebars.
> People seem to think if you are doing chores hauling stuff
> around on your bike that you are too poor to own a car,
> like some kind of lowlife, bad mindset. People are
> embarrassed to be seen using their bikes for everyday
> tasks like going to the post office. Americans are too
> busy showing off their SUV's.

That is why a few leaders need to just do it anyway (whether
you whine about it or not) and demonstrate that it can be
"cool" as well as smart. I have people ask me questions all
the time (that indicate admiration) when shopping for
groceries with my race kit on.

A car is a status symbol, and the Chinese are getting a clue
> about that and following suit. It won't be long before the
> Chinese will
get
> the same mindset and be embarrassed to ride their bike as
> well for errands and such. Too bad, I used to take
> groceries home on my bikes sometimes, no big deal, but to
> show my point, a car load of teens drove by and told me
to
> buy a car like I was too poor.

And what was your reaction to these teens? Why is this
past tense? Why would you even care what a "carload of
teens" thinks?

Typical reaction, but little did they know
> that I have 4 cars, all running good and a truck. Got 4
> bikes though. The more bike paths and folks out riding in
> America then the more of such minsets will disappear.

No, it will take people doing it with pride rather than an
apologetic attitude.
 
"Per Elmsäter" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> B. Lafferty wrote:
> > From today's NY Time:
> >
> > June 7, 2004
> > G.M. to Spend Over $3 Billion to Expand in China By
> > KEITH BRADSHER
> >
>
> If we could only legislate that the automotive industry
> would have to pay for one square meter of cycling road per
> every car they sell, then we
could
> build a complete network of racingcircuits all over the
> world. I'm talking 30 - 100 km two lane cyclinghighways
> every place we wanna race ;)

Yeah, like any of that money would actually be used for its
intended purpose. Besides, the car maker would just pass the
cost onto the consumer so really it's the consumer getting
his with another tax.

Dave
 
On Tue, 8 Jun 2004 20:12:42 +0200, Robert Chung wrote:
> In the U.S. a billion is 10^9. Still, a billion here, a
> billion there...

I knew that, but didn't even realize; my concern was over
the increase, and indeed the equal amounts.
 
Bob Schwartz wrote:
> Pistof <[email protected]> wrote:
>> Concerning higher taxes vs. lower taxes: maybe there's a
>> happy medium to be found. Mostly, though, governments
>> need to learn to be more efficient and spend their
>> "income" more wisely.
>
> This will never happen in a government that encourages
> bribery through its system of campaign financing.

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/vote-roi.png
 
Ewoud Dronkert wrote:

> On Tue, 8 Jun 2004 20:12:42 +0200, Robert Chung wrote:
>
>>In the U.S. a billion is 10^9. Still, a billion here, a
>>billion there...
>
>
> I knew that, but didn't even realize; my concern was over
> the increase, and indeed the equal amounts.

Can someone come up with a two sentence description of
that chart:

a) Describing the general pattern of what it shows
b) Indicating where a "preferred" position wouuld be.

Also would be useful if someone could draw up one with
"Componentry" along the bottom axis and "frame" on the Y-
axis. (Scale still in billions).
 
Stewart Fleming wrote:
>
> Can someone come up with a two sentence description of
> that chart:
>
> a) Describing the general pattern of what it shows
> b) Indicating where a "preferred" position wouuld be.
>
> Also would be useful if someone could draw up one with
> "Componentry" along the bottom axis and "frame" on the Y-
> axis. (Scale still in billions).

The underlying data are here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb-
/budget/fy2005/sheets/hist08z7.xls
 

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