Tour '04...showcase of speed?

jim gravity

Things are looking good for the flat stages this year. Peta, Boonen
(who doesn't think Petacchi poses a problem for him to win 2-3 stages
and the green), McEwen, Cooke, and the aging superstars, Zabel and
Cipo. All these teams together provide a lot of horsepower and
motivation for bunch finishes.

This could be the fastest TdF ever (until the AAA-unlimited-fuel-class
professional league is created).

Robert Chung

jim gravity wrote:
>
> This could be the fastest TdF ever

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf.png

2004 TdF is 3395 km.

jim gravity

Thanks, I was looking for that.



--

Glenn Cooper

This is a really interesting plot. I notice, though, that there is a
pretty good correlation of Tour length with date--more recent Tours
have been shorter--as well as the clear correlation of average speed
with length. So it's hard to be sure whether racers can average a
higher speed when the race is shorter (which seems plausible), or
whether racers have gotten faster over the years because of better
training/equipment/nutrition/whatever.

Glenn


"Robert Chung" <me2@privacy.net> wrote in message news:<2gpja9F5gimnU1@uni-berlin.de>...
> jim gravity wrote:
> >
> > This could be the fastest TdF ever
>
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf.png
>
> 2004 TdF is 3395 km.

Dan Connelly

Glenn Cooper wrote:
> This is a really interesting plot. I notice, though, that there is a
> pretty good correlation of Tour length with date--more recent Tours
> have been shorter--as well as the clear correlation of average speed
> with length. So it's hard to be sure whether racers can average a
> higher speed when the race is shorter (which seems plausible), or
> whether racers have gotten faster over the years because of better
> training/equipment/nutrition/whatever.
>
> Glenn
>

It's straightforward enough to do a bivariate regression to separate the two.
Barring that, eyeball it -- take vertical slices of the plot, and
you'll observe a clear date dependence.

Dan

Tom Kunich

"Robert Chung" <me2@privacy.net> wrote in message
news:2gpja9F5gimnU1@uni-berlin.de...
> jim gravity wrote:
> >
> > This could be the fastest TdF ever
>
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf.png
>
> 2004 TdF is 3395 km.

What's the correlation with the multiple road improvements over the last 40
years? The top half of many of those climbs were broken up or even gravel up
until the early 70's and some of them into the 90's if memory serves. Bad
asphalt makes a pretty dramatic difference versus good asphalt in average
speed. So does the increasing general fitness of the peloton which allows
more breakaways. And that changes the tactics to generate still more early
breakaways that tend to hold the speeds higher.

Hinault could do long breakaways but who has been able to do that since
then? Chiapucci when no one believed he had a chance and so didn't pursue
with any seriousness?

Robert Chung

Dan Connelly wrote:
> Glenn Cooper wrote:
>> This is a really interesting plot. I notice, though, that there is a
>> pretty good correlation of Tour length with date--more recent Tours
>> have been shorter--as well as the clear correlation of average speed
>> with length. So it's hard to be sure whether racers can average a
>> higher speed when the race is shorter (which seems plausible), or
>> whether racers have gotten faster over the years because of better
>> training/equipment/nutrition/whatever.
>>
>> Glenn
>>
>
> It's straightforward enough to do a bivariate regression to separate
> the two.

Distance and year are highly collinear.
http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf.csv

Scatterplot matrix:
http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf2.png

Dan Connelly

Dan Connelly wrote:
> Glenn Cooper wrote:
>
>> This is a really interesting plot. I notice, though, that there is a
>> pretty good correlation of Tour length with date--more recent Tours
>> have been shorter--as well as the clear correlation of average speed
>> with length. So it's hard to be sure whether racers can average a
>> higher speed when the race is shorter (which seems plausible), or
>> whether racers have gotten faster over the years because of better
>> training/equipment/nutrition/whatever.
>>
>> Glenn
>>
>
> It's straightforward enough to do a bivariate regression to separate the
> two.
> Barring that, eyeball it -- take vertical slices of the plot, and
> you'll observe a clear date dependence.
>
> Dan
>


Well, I don't have a proper multivariate regression code, but I did
my best with Open Office calc.... (the gnumeric solver wouldn't work
for me). Maybe I'll try Excel when I'm on widoze.

But the model seems to be close to :

speed = s0 + a (y - d)
s0 = 36.05 kph
y == (year - 1970) / (10 years)
d == (distance - 4000 km) / 1000 km
a = 0.926 kph

Dan

jim gravity

> It's straightforward enough to do a bivariate regression to separate
> the two. Barring that, eyeball it -- take vertical slices of the
> plot, and you'll observe a clear date dependence.

It gets fuzzy around 4200-4500km though.

So, 1999 was the last time Cipolini rode the tour...it was a pretty fast
year, given it's length.

And the protour is starting next year. I figure that is going to slow
things down.



--

Clovis Lark

Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote:
> "Robert Chung" <me2@privacy.net> wrote in message
> news:2gpja9F5gimnU1@uni-berlin.de...
>> jim gravity wrote:
>> >
>> > This could be the fastest TdF ever
>>
>> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf.png
>>
>> 2004 TdF is 3395 km.

> What's the correlation with the multiple road improvements over the last 40
> years? The top half of many of those climbs were broken up or even gravel up
> until the early 70's and some of them into the 90's if memory serves. Bad
> asphalt makes a pretty dramatic difference versus good asphalt in average
> speed. So does the increasing general fitness of the peloton which allows
> more breakaways. And that changes the tactics to generate still more early
> breakaways that tend to hold the speeds higher.

> Hinault could do long breakaways but who has been able to do that since
> then?

Thierry Marie, didn't he solo into Brittany (or was it Brittney, naw that
wuz the guy frum the Bayou) for Castorama in the late 80's? Something
like 100+kms? Fignon had another in his last daze.

Chiapucci when no one believed he had a chance and so didn't pursue
> with any seriousness?

Tom Kunich

"Clovis Lark" <clark@steel.ucs.indiana.edu> wrote in message
news:c8b6ou$n2k$4@hood.uits.indiana.edu...
> Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > "Robert Chung" <me2@privacy.net> wrote in message
> > news:2gpja9F5gimnU1@uni-berlin.de...
> >> jim gravity wrote:
> >> >
> >> > This could be the fastest TdF ever
> >>
> >> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf.png
> >>
> >> 2004 TdF is 3395 km.
>
> > What's the correlation with the multiple road improvements over the last
40
> > years? The top half of many of those climbs were broken up or even
gravel up
> > until the early 70's and some of them into the 90's if memory serves.
Bad
> > asphalt makes a pretty dramatic difference versus good asphalt in
average
> > speed. So does the increasing general fitness of the peloton which
allows
> > more breakaways. And that changes the tactics to generate still more
early
> > breakaways that tend to hold the speeds higher.
>
> > Hinault could do long breakaways but who has been able to do that since
> > then?
>
> Thierry Marie, didn't he solo into Brittany (or was it Brittney, naw that
> wuz the guy frum the Bayou) for Castorama in the late 80's? Something
> like 100+kms? Fignon had another in his last daze.

Nah, I'm talking about a contender. Fignon would NEVER have been allowed on
a long leash when he was a team leader. He was absolutely great. Too bad his
ego was so fragile. Fignon had a superb 1989 - easily the best ridre of that
year for my money - but lost the Tour by 8 seconds and the World's by a bike
length and never could do much after that.

Clovis Lark

Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote:
> "Clovis Lark" <clark@steel.ucs.indiana.edu> wrote in message
> news:c8b6ou$n2k$4@hood.uits.indiana.edu...
>> Tom Kunich <cyclintom@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> > "Robert Chung" <me2@privacy.net> wrote in message
>> > news:2gpja9F5gimnU1@uni-berlin.de...
>> >> jim gravity wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> > This could be the fastest TdF ever
>> >>
>> >> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/temp/tdf.png
>> >>
>> >> 2004 TdF is 3395 km.
>>
>> > What's the correlation with the multiple road improvements over the last
> 40
>> > years? The top half of many of those climbs were broken up or even
> gravel up
>> > until the early 70's and some of them into the 90's if memory serves.
> Bad
>> > asphalt makes a pretty dramatic difference versus good asphalt in
> average
>> > speed. So does the increasing general fitness of the peloton which
> allows
>> > more breakaways. And that changes the tactics to generate still more
> early
>> > breakaways that tend to hold the speeds higher.
>>
>> > Hinault could do long breakaways but who has been able to do that since
>> > then?
>>
>> Thierry Marie, didn't he solo into Brittany (or was it Brittney, naw that
>> wuz the guy frum the Bayou) for Castorama in the late 80's? Something
>> like 100+kms? Fignon had another in his last daze.

> Nah, I'm talking about a contender. Fignon would NEVER have been allowed on
> a long leash when he was a team leader. He was absolutely great. Too bad his
> ego was so fragile. Fignon had a superb 1989 - easily the best ridre of that
> year for my money - but lost the Tour by 8 seconds and the World's by a bike
> length and never could do much after that.

nothing to do with that partial dislocation of the hip in the Giro 90?
Naw...