Sunday: does the Boss stamp his foot on the neck of this Tour?

rejobako

Anyone want to lay a friendly bet for tomorrow's stage winner? I'll take Armstrong, you can have the field.

Here's why I think tomorrow is set up for an Armstrong win:

1) To put it in a coarse American vernacular: T-Mobile shot their wad today. Vino was gallant; Kloden tenacious, Ullrich relentless, but in the end I don't think any of them made Armstrong work any harder than themselves.

2) The ease with which T-Mobile dispatched the rest of the Disco team was a serious embarrassment to Bruyneel's boys. That being said, they were blown off the back so early and definitively, I suspect Bruyneel soon told the rest of them to just take it easy and rest up for tomorrow's hellish stage. Rubiera/Salvoldelli/Azevedo finished comfortably together some 20 minutes back, so they should be relatively fresh in comparison to T-Mobile's big 3, each of which suffered mightily today. (As an aside, I note with some interest that Popo continued to ride hard, and now has a lead of over 2 minutes for the white jersey competition -- I suspect he's a little ambivalent right now, knowing that his role is to ride for Lance, but hoping he doesn't get sacrificed early tomorrow so he can perhaps stay at the top of the youth classification.)

3) For all of his "boring" success, Armstrong has nonetheless had a flair for the dramatic over the years; he likes to stamp his authority on the race on the first real mountain stage: he accomplished that last weekend. I suspect he'd like to finish as the stage winner of the most difficult day of his last Tour de France. Today seemed to soften up the "usual suspects", so if a breakaway of any sort is going to succeed tomorrow, it will probably be driven by someone far down in the GC, and thus someone who might conceivably be reeled in as the day progresses.

The frustrating thing for T-Mobile right now must be that they accomplished exactly what they wanted to do: isolate Lance early and attack him repeatedly. Vino did it twice, Basso tried it, even Ullrich seemed to try a desperate lunge with about 3K remaining, and yet Armstrong easily outdistanced Basso for the 2nd place bonus.

Like many, I've been hoping for a close GC this year, and although the gap remains less than 2 minutes to second place, Armstrong seems as dominant as ever. Does anyone have any hope remaining that Armstrong is vulnerable, unless he bonks or is snagged by another shopping bag? (In retrospect, the latter incident just made him angry, as I recall.)

My prediction for tomorrow is: Armstrong in a solo finish, with today's 2nd and 3rd place riders exchanging spots: Ullrich and Basso

Tonto

Not being smart-assed, but when did LA last make solo run to the finish in a big stage? Had a quick look at his stage wins last year and he finished with a group of others in each....I can't remember back before that at the moment...

I think LA will win the stage, but in a sprint, pipping Basso, Rasmussen and Ullrich.

MJtje

Last time was 2003 Luz ardiden.......still, although he lost explosiveness which is due to his age, he is as consistent as ever!

I also think he wants to win.......but the reason is for casartelli and his family who will be there! And he wants 1 more mountaintop finish before he retires..........
Doing it is another thing.......

rejobako

Not a smart-assed comment at all, but a valid response. I agree that Lance's explosiveness has been a bit muted over the past few years. The only reason I think tomorrow may be different is that all of the competitors who would be the likely candidates to stay with him were taxed heavily today, while, paradoxically, his own team was able to stay relatively relaxed. If he gets the support from the team tomorrow, I really think he's going to try to distance himself from everyone.

So far, the class of the chasing competition appears to be Basso (again, no offense to Rasmussen, but he faltered a bit today and wouldn't be in this position but for the field allowing him the breakaway last Sunday). Last year, Lance simply could not shake Basso off of his wheel, while at the end of today's stage, Lance seemed to have the extra freshness at the end. Basso didn't look completely gassed, but it also seemed he knew there was no way he could stay with Armstrong to go for the 2nd place bonus.

I'm not suggesting Lance is going to try to go off on his own on an all-day breakaway to cement his legacy -- but I do think that, as a result of today's developments, the situation looks good for him to be alone in front on the last kilometer of the last climb.

framsey

I agree with your observation regarding Disco quickly realizing that the T-Mobile attack would be self-limiting.

I heard a LA interview on eurosport (via the web - great for us Yanks) where he told of a spectator running up to him and shouting 'you are alone', at which time he looked around and laughed to himself because they were all alone. After Vino cracked, Jan was alone, as was everyone else I believe.

But praise to Jan, Vino, and Basso for attacking and making it a race.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

rejobako

Well said. They ultimately weren't up to cracking Armstrong, but the sight of T-Mobile out front galvanizing themselves for a desperate push was the first time I've been compelled to sit on the edge of my seat since day 1, when Armstrong was overtaking Jan on the ITT. I appreciate their effort (Basso included).

Tonto

Good call....I had thought of LA going on a long solo effort and couldn't see it happening. A vicious spurt that leaves everyone behind with 1 or 2 km's to go is pretty likely. We'll see. I just hope that Basso and Ullrich have something left tomorrow to make it as exciting as it was today.

davidbod

Interesting discussion. I think he will be looking for the win due to the Fabio Casartelli reason as well. It was 10 years since his death yesterday. It would certainly be a fitting way to end his last mountain top finish.

framsey

I agree. Considering:

- his last tour
- his last mountain top finish
- rest day to follow
- the race route and 10 years since a defining event of his life (Casartelli's death).
- his stated desire to win a road stage in this Tour

we could see a real LA show tomorrow. I, for one, am hoping for it.

But, given that everyone will be attacking him, it will be exciting.

sonicman

Also in was there that in 2001 he took the yellow jersey after beating Ullrich by a minute. The climb is good for him, not that long but pretty steep.

Powerful Pete

Brain tells me Armstrong, but my heart tells me that I have to bet on Basso. I do not think that Jan will do better than Basso.

And if all goes well, Basso will toast Rasmussen and be in second spot by the end of the day today.

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