Gas prices knock bicycle sales, repairs into higher gear

Ted

"Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business — if you run a
bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
old two-wheelers — or buying new ones — to cope with rising fuel
prices, bicycle dealers say..."

Associated Press article: http://xrl.us/BikeShops

Dane Buson

In rec.bicycles.misc Ted <nobody@pseudo.borked.net> wrote:
> "Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business ? if you run a
> bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
> old two-wheelers ? or buying new ones ? to cope with rising fuel
> prices, bicycle dealers say..."
>
> Associated Press article: http://xrl.us/BikeShops

It reminds an awful lot of the articles we've seen at the beginning of
summer the last two years. Bog knows I've seen an increase in bike
commuters the last two summers [1]. I expect lots more this year,
especially as we get closer to STP time [2].

It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? What would
people do at $6? At $8 a gallon?

[1] Even more than usual.
[2] Seattle To Portland - the big distance ride in the region.

--
Dane Buson - sigdane@unixbigots.org
"If ignorance is bliss, you must be orgasmic."

joseph.santaniello@gmail.com

On May 12, 7:39*pm, Dane Buson <d...@unseen.edu> wrote:
> In rec.bicycles.misc Ted <nob...@pseudo.borked.net> wrote:
>
> > "Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business ? if you run a
> > bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
> > old two-wheelers ? or buying new ones ? to cope with rising fuel
> > prices, bicycle dealers say..."
>
> > Associated Press article:http://xrl.us/BikeShops
>
> It reminds an awful lot of the articles we've seen at the beginning of
> summer the last two years. *Bog knows I've seen an increase in bike
> commuters the last two summers [1]. *I expect lots more this year,
> especially as we get closer to STP time [2].
>
> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? *What would
> people do at $6? *At $8 a gallon?
>
> [1] Even more than usual.
> [2] Seattle To Portland - the big distance ride in the region.
>

Gas is over $10 per gallon here in Norway. I don't have the reference
handy, but recently I read that bikes account for less than 2% of
commuters in Oslo, and the numbers were on the way down. If it is only
2% in Oslo, I'm sure it's way less elsewhere here.

Gas prices alone are not that important for bike adoption, IMO.

Joseph

Mike Jacoubowsky

> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? What would
> people do at $6? At $8 a gallon?

I think it will take $6/gallon to make a real difference, because we'll then
be seeing $100 fill-ups. That's something that will cause people to step
back and wonder if it's really worth it, or if they need to drive less.
Perhaps a lot less. And buy smaller cars. But getting people onto bikes
isn't a done deal just because gas prices go high. This remains a
car-centric culture. In the long run, yes, we'll see fundamental change. Not
just increases in numbers use mass transit, but actually demanding more &
better mass transit, and wondering why it doesn't go where they need to. And
some of those people will realize that a bike, either by itself or combined
with bike-friendly transit, *does* go where you need to go.

But it won't happen overnight.

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
www.ChainReaction.com
Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA


"Dane Buson" <dane@unseen.edu> wrote in message
newsvbmf5-734.ln1@curare.zuvembi.homelinux.org...
> In rec.bicycles.misc Ted <nobody@pseudo.borked.net> wrote:
>> "Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business ? if you run a
>> bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
>> old two-wheelers ? or buying new ones ? to cope with rising fuel
>> prices, bicycle dealers say..."
>>
>> Associated Press article: http://xrl.us/BikeShops
>
> It reminds an awful lot of the articles we've seen at the beginning of
> summer the last two years. Bog knows I've seen an increase in bike
> commuters the last two summers [1]. I expect lots more this year,
> especially as we get closer to STP time [2].
>
> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? What would
> people do at $6? At $8 a gallon?
>
> [1] Even more than usual.
> [2] Seattle To Portland - the big distance ride in the region.
>
> --
> Dane Buson - sigdane@unixbigots.org
> "If ignorance is bliss, you must be orgasmic."

joseph.santaniello@gmail.com

On May 12, 11:22*pm, "Mike Jacoubowsky" <Mi...@ChainReaction.com>
wrote:
> > It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
> > cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? *What would
> > people do at $6? *At $8 a gallon?
>
> I think it will take $6/gallon to make a real difference, because we'll then
> be seeing $100 fill-ups. That's something that will cause people to step
> back and wonder if it's really worth it, or if they need to drive less.
> Perhaps a lot less. And buy smaller cars. But getting people onto bikes
> isn't a done deal just because gas prices go high. This remains a
> car-centric culture. In the long run, yes, we'll see fundamental change. Not
> just increases in numbers use mass transit, but actually demanding more &
> better mass transit, and wondering why it doesn't go where they need to. And
> some of those people will realize that a bike, either by itself or combined
> with bike-friendly transit, *does* go where you need to go.
>
> But it won't happen overnight.
>
> --Mike Jacoubowsky
> Chain Reaction Bicycleswww.ChainReaction.com
> Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA
>
> "Dane Buson" <d...@unseen.edu> wrote in message
>
> newsvbmf5-734.ln1@curare.zuvembi.homelinux.org...
>
> > In rec.bicycles.misc Ted <nob...@pseudo.borked.net> wrote:
> >> "Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business ? if you run a
> >> bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
> >> old two-wheelers ? or buying new ones ? to cope with rising fuel
> >> prices, bicycle dealers say..."
>
> >> Associated Press article:http://xrl.us/BikeShops
>
> > It reminds an awful lot of the articles we've seen at the beginning of
> > summer the last two years. *Bog knows I've seen an increase in bike
> > commuters the last two summers [1]. *I expect lots more this year,
> > especially as we get closer to STP time [2].
>
> > It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
> > cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? *What would
> > people do at $6? *At $8 a gallon?
>
> > [1] Even more than usual.
> > [2] Seattle To Portland - the big distance ride in the region.
>
> > --
> > Dane Buson - sigd...@unixbigots.org
> > "If ignorance is bliss, you must be orgasmic."

People look at the total cost of running a car. They will piss and
moan about expensive gas, but they will end up just buying cheaper
used cars. Instead of a typical family having 2 new medium/large cars,
they will get one new one, and one junker. the junker might not use
less gas, but it will be cheaper in th elong run.

Joseph

Dane Buson

In rec.bicycles.misc joseph.santaniello@gmail.com <joseph.santaniello@gmail.com> wrote:
> On May 12, 7:39*pm, Dane Buson <d...@unseen.edu> wrote:
>>
>> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
>> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? *What would
>> people do at $6? *At $8 a gallon?
>
> Gas is over $10 per gallon here in Norway. I don't have the reference
> handy, but recently I read that bikes account for less than 2% of
> commuters in Oslo, and the numbers were on the way down. If it is only
> 2% in Oslo, I'm sure it's way less elsewhere here.
>
> Gas prices alone are not that important for bike adoption, IMO.

But don't you have real public transit there? Most of the US
is...challenged in terms of our public transit setup. Do you know what
the relative percentage is that take the train/bus/walk vs. driving?

--
Dane Buson - sigdane@unixbigots.org
"Special cocktails for the ladies with nuts."
-Sign in a Tokyo bar

George

Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
>> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
>> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? What would
>> people do at $6? At $8 a gallon?
>
> I think it will take $6/gallon to make a real difference, because we'll then
> be seeing $100 fill-ups.

We are already there. A typical fluffed up fashion statement truck like
a ford exhibition has a 28 gallon tank.



That's something that will cause people to step
> back and wonder if it's really worth it, or if they need to drive less.
> Perhaps a lot less. And buy smaller cars. But getting people onto bikes
> isn't a done deal just because gas prices go high. This remains a
> car-centric culture. In the long run, yes, we'll see fundamental change. Not
> just increases in numbers use mass transit, but actually demanding more &
> better mass transit, and wondering why it doesn't go where they need to. And
> some of those people will realize that a bike, either by itself or combined
> with bike-friendly transit, *does* go where you need to go.
>
> But it won't happen overnight.
>
> --Mike Jacoubowsky
> Chain Reaction Bicycles
> www.ChainReaction.com
> Redwood City & Los Altos, CA USA
>
>
> "Dane Buson" <dane@unseen.edu> wrote in message
> newsvbmf5-734.ln1@curare.zuvembi.homelinux.org...
>> In rec.bicycles.misc Ted <nobody@pseudo.borked.net> wrote:
>>> "Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business ? if you run a
>>> bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
>>> old two-wheelers ? or buying new ones ? to cope with rising fuel
>>> prices, bicycle dealers say..."
>>>
>>> Associated Press article: http://xrl.us/BikeShops
>> It reminds an awful lot of the articles we've seen at the beginning of
>> summer the last two years. Bog knows I've seen an increase in bike
>> commuters the last two summers [1]. I expect lots more this year,
>> especially as we get closer to STP time [2].
>>
>> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
>> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? What would
>> people do at $6? At $8 a gallon?
>>
>> [1] Even more than usual.
>> [2] Seattle To Portland - the big distance ride in the region.
>>
>> --
>> Dane Buson - sigdane@unixbigots.org
>> "If ignorance is bliss, you must be orgasmic."
>
>

max

In article <857e2165db39cfbcc79dcb334f77decf@pseudo.borked.net>,
Ted <nobody@pseudo.borked.net> wrote:

> "Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business — if you run a
> bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
> old two-wheelers — or buying new ones — to cope with rising fuel
> prices, bicycle dealers say..."
>
> Associated Press article: http://xrl.us/BikeShops

i'm not seeing a significant amount of traffic on the Fox River Trail
yet, and my workplace bike-to-work website trending seems unrelated to
gas prices, although i've seen a _few_ more bikes on site. I would
opine that $4/gallon isn't a big* motivator yet.

Given the canonical suburbs/commute-distances, at least in west
surburban chicagoland, i'm not entirely convinced we'll see much
commuter biking, unless it is first preceded by an inter/intra-suburban
migration.

The routes just aren't here for more than fairly short commutes unless
your endpoints are proximal to the few rails-to-trails bicycle
superhighways.

*Big... There's two kinds of big. there's population-doubling big
(wow! there's 4X as many bicycle commuters!) (translation: instead of
two there's 8... woo. hoo.).

And then there's percentages of the gross population big (up from 2%
last year, 8% of the Kane County commuters rode their bikes today) (not
true, but it would be a big number).

I think any changes in cycle commuting numbers occurring right now are
occurring in the "five times a *verrry*smmmall* number" regime. I think
that the %daily-commuter numbers is still fairly constant. Say up
from1.3% to 1.5% (numbers kinda made up).

that's what i thimk.

..max

--
This signature can be appended to your outgoing mesages. Many people include in
their signatures contact information, and perhaps a joke or quotation.

max

In article <857e2165db39cfbcc79dcb334f77decf@pseudo.borked.net>,
Ted <nobody@pseudo.borked.net> wrote:

> "Four-dollar-a-gallon gas is good for business — if you run a
> bike shop. Commuters around the country are dusting off their
> old two-wheelers — or buying new ones — to cope with rising fuel
> prices, bicycle dealers say..."
>
> Associated Press article: http://xrl.us/BikeShops

another thought...

A great many of our bike paths <cough, MUPs> are Rail-To-Trail
conversions. I'm thinking that i remember that RTTs can be reverted to
rail fairly -- very -- easily, from a legal standpoint. Feckless
NIMBYism not factored in, of course.

I'm thinkin that the law of unintended consequences might just find us
watching (for example) our beloved Illinois Prairie Path, Fox River
Trail and Great Western trail and Virgil Gilman trail disappear under
the ballast of a light rail line in oh... twenty years or less.

I'm just sayin.

--
This signature can be appended to your outgoing mesages. Many people include in
their signatures contact information, and perhaps a joke or quotation.

joseph.santaniello@gmail.com

On May 13, 1:02*am, Dane Buson <d...@unseen.edu> wrote:
> In rec.bicycles.misc joseph.santanie...@gmail.com <joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > On May 12, 7:39*pm, Dane Buson <d...@unseen.edu> wrote:
>
> >> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
> >> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? *What would
> >> people do at $6? *At $8 a gallon?
>
> > Gas is over $10 per gallon here in Norway. I don't have the reference
> > handy, but recently I read that bikes account for less than 2% of
> > commuters in Oslo, and the numbers were on the way down. If it is only
> > 2% in Oslo, I'm sure it's way less elsewhere here.
>
> > Gas prices alone are not that important for bike adoption, IMO.
>
> But don't you have real public transit there? *Most of the US
> is...challenged in terms of our public transit setup. *Do you know what
> the relative percentage is that take the train/bus/walk vs. driving?
>

I've only used public transport in a handful of US cities, all of
which were much larger than Oslo (New York, Boston, Chicago, LA, SF, a
few others) and light-years better. Since Oslo has only 500,000 people
or so, it's not really a good comparison. Compared to a city of
500,000 in the US it might be pretty good. I don't recall the commuter
break-down. I'll tyr to find it. The important thing for bike usage is
distances needed to be travelled and what sort of destinations. If a
super-market is a long haul, only hard-core types will ride bikes
there. If it is to pop down to a baker for some fresh bread 3 blocks
away, you'll get more takers.

Joseph

Stephen Harding

Dane Buson wrote:

> But don't you have real public transit there? Most of the US
> is...challenged in terms of our public transit setup. Do you know what
> the relative percentage is that take the train/bus/walk vs. driving?

Just read a NYT (or perhaps MSNBC) article about this in the US.

Public transit use is up about 5% in the larger cities with
well developed transit systems (Boston, NYC, SF) and a little
less so with less developed or newer public transit like Houston.
Southern cities, with more car-centric attitudes have lower
increases than northern or western cities.

It's been up about that much over the first three months of this
year during a time when the economy is on the down side and
public transit use typically falls a couple percent (according
to Boston and NYC transit authority stats).

So there's definitely a tick upward in public transit as a result
of higher fuel prices.

I'm seeing *many* more bicyclists now on road and path locally as
well. Can't say the regional buses look that much fuller though,
but I'm glad to have all the extra company pedaling to and from
work these days.

I think it's great!


SMH

Stephen Harding

George wrote:
> Mike Jacoubowsky wrote:
>
>>> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
>>> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? What would
>>> people do at $6? At $8 a gallon?
>>
>>
>> I think it will take $6/gallon to make a real difference, because
>> we'll then be seeing $100 fill-ups.
>
>
> We are already there. A typical fluffed up fashion statement truck like
> a ford exhibition has a 28 gallon tank.

My Dodge pickup has 35 gallon tank and I've had the infamous
$100 fillup for a time now if I let the tank run dry as I was
once prone to do.

Because the pumps around here have limits of $75 for credit
cards, and only $50 for ATM cards, I now fill up at a bit under
1/2 tank.

But with the help of my bike, that would last me three weeks
(at 16 mpg).


SMH

Stephen Harding

max wrote:

> I'm thinkin that the law of unintended consequences might just find us
> watching (for example) our beloved Illinois Prairie Path, Fox River
> Trail and Great Western trail and Virgil Gilman trail disappear under
> the ballast of a light rail line in oh... twenty years or less.
>
> I'm just sayin.

But technically, that's what the proclaimed purpose of "rail banking"
as promoted by Rails-to-Trails groups. Save these rights of way for
future use when maglev of whatever reoccupies them. In the meantime,
they become public recreational facilities.

Personally, I don't think they'll ever get converted back. We'll be
driving around in our personal hydrogen powered vehicles before we
have to choose re-creating a passenger rail network.


SMH

Red Cloud

On May 13, 12:01 am, "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
<joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On May 13, 1:02 am, Dane Buson <d...@unseen.edu> wrote:
>
>
>
> > In rec.bicycles.misc joseph.santanie...@gmail.com <joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > On May 12, 7:39 pm, Dane Buson <d...@unseen.edu> wrote:
>
> > >> It does make me wonder, if a small bump in price to $4 is enough to
> > >> cause changes, how much would a real price spike change? What would
> > >> people do at $6? At $8 a gallon?
>
> > > Gas is over $10 per gallon here in Norway. I don't have the reference
> > > handy, but recently I read that bikes account for less than 2% of
> > > commuters in Oslo, and the numbers were on the way down. If it is only
> > > 2% in Oslo, I'm sure it's way less elsewhere here.
>
> > > Gas prices alone are not that important for bike adoption, IMO.
>
> > But don't you have real public transit there? Most of the US
> > is...challenged in terms of our public transit setup. Do you know what
> > the relative percentage is that take the train/bus/walk vs. driving?
>
> I've only used public transport in a handful of US cities, all of
> which were much larger than Oslo (New York, Boston, Chicago, LA, SF, a
> few others) and light-years better. Since Oslo has only 500,000 people
> or so, it's not really a good comparison. Compared to a city of
> 500,000 in the US it might be pretty good. I don't recall the commuter
> break-down. I'll tyr to find it. The important thing for bike usage is
> distances needed to be travelled and what sort of destinations. If a
> super-market is a long haul, only hard-core types will ride bikes
> there. If it is to pop down to a baker for some fresh bread 3 blocks
> away, you'll get more takers.
>
> Joseph


Norway is a big open country. It is not like little flat country like
Dutch. Not only that Norway is too mountainous not good for bike
ride.