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13-12.-2003, 02:30 PM
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#1 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: northern wisconsin
Posts: 39
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lance armstrong
I thingk lance will win next year
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14-12.-2003, 05:30 PM
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#2 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Posts: 1,672
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Re: lance armstrong
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It might help if you say what you expect Lance to win, and if you say everything, don't forget there are lotteries out there too. I'm guessing you mean a bike race because that's been his game for quite a while now, but he does play golf too. I'm pretty sure I know what you're talking about, but I think you ought to spell it out for us.  |
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15-12.-2003, 01:14 PM
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#3 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: northern wisconsin
Posts: 39
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Re: Re: lance armstrong
I'm talking about next years TDF
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15-12.-2003, 05:49 PM
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#4 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Anchorage, Alaska, USA
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Re: Re: Re: lance armstrong
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OK. Consider also that he wants to win the time trial at the Olympics next summer, but first he has to qualify. He got a bronze last olympics in that event behind Ekimov and Ullrich. |
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27-12.-2003, 03:07 PM
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#5 |
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Member
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 74
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there is a poll about this in the other racing forum
__________________
-Brent |
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09-01.-2004, 02:40 PM
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#6 |
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Junior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 8
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I can't even imagine a podium without Lance and Jan next year.
A Beloki-style incident aside, this is all but a guarantee. My hope for Lance is to finally take Liege or the Amstel Gold. Liege makes more sense now that it sits in the appropriate spot on the calendar for his yearly preparation. He has earned a 2nd place finish in both races (Boogerd did the "dirty" on him in Amstel 1999 by sitting on for last kilometre) and, though it is hard to be such a marked man and win a Classic, I think he is capable of, and deserves, a win. |
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15-01.-2004, 09:13 PM
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#7 |
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Member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico
Posts: 84
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There are a couple of external factors which could dramatically lower Lance's prospects for the Tour:
1. He seems to have finally entered a post cancer survival mode--he's largely returned to the personality he had before cancer, meaning less intense, less focused. 2. He's less hungry. He has little to prove at this point, and tons of other interesting things to be doing. He recently announced that he would rather spend Spring in Texas with his kids then win a sixth Tour. Doesn't sound like the old Lance, does it? 3. He doesn't have his personal support network--he just went through a divorce. Sheryl Crow, his new girlfriend, is definitely NOT the retiring, selfless companion that his wife had always been to him. 4. He's skipping much of his Spring racing schedule in Europe in favor of training in Texas. All of these things are negatives as far as winning a sixth Tour goes. |
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22-01.-2004, 10:57 AM
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#8 |
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Community Team
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: at the bar
Posts: 12,487
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It's a very interesting question that you pose.
My head says that he is the favourite to win. My heart dearly wishes that he's beaten. I'm not a psychologist but from what I know of Armstrong, I believe that he will be super motivated to win the 2004 TDF. Given the fact that he has solely concentrated each season since 1998, upon winning this event every year to the exclusion of every other race each season, I would think that if he failed to win it in 2004, this would be a calmity for him. The reason why I think this is because he (Armstrong) seems to equate winning solely the TDF each year, as being a successful season. Armstrong, I believe, considers if he wins his sixth successive TDF, that this will accord him the respect that he feels he deserves. If he doesn't win in 2004, this would be most certainly a calmity for him because, even with his narrow focus each year on the TDF since 1998, it will validate the greatness of the other Big 4. The other Big 4 as well as winning 5 T'sDF, had the ability to win other races in the seasons when the won their T'sDF. Therefore, i believe that he will be supermotivated to win in 2004. |
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25-01.-2004, 10:11 AM
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#9 | |
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Registered User
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Location: Arizona (USA)
Posts: 1,141
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Quote:
Sounds very similar to what I read but that's not quite what he said. He said that April was too early to be training hard in the mountains anyway and he could imagine going 2 months without seeing his kids. He addressed the change in his training regimen by saying, "If it costs me the Tour, then I lose." I don't interpret that to mean that he'd rather spend time with his kids than win. To me he's saying that he thinks training in the U.S. at that point in the season should still allow him to be fit for the Tour but if the change in training has adverse affects, he's willing to accept that. |
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31-01.-2004, 08:28 PM
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#10 | |
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Member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico
Posts: 84
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Quote:
You're probably right on the exact wording of these quotes. I think I saw these references on Reuters Sports, which almost certainly would have picked them up third hand. Nevertheless, there are other indicators that Lance's opportunity cost for past levels of focus and training may be higher this year, and his resulting motivation somewhat less. |
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14-02.-2004, 07:40 AM
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#11 | |
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Junior Member
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2
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Re: lance armstrong
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First of all, I don't think he needs to spell it out at all. Lance plays golf very poorly, he couldn't be refering to that. He also waterskis, but I haven't seen him in any x-game promos. Heck, except for the TDF, he apparently doesn't even intend to do much cycling. I prefer to pull for a bike racer who actually races and hope this cherry-picking doesn't become too much of a trend. If Ulrich were to race one race a year, he'd kill Armstrong on any course. In 2004, Ulrich is just better, simple as that. He's younger, stronger, more talented, and has a better team. I used to drink cappucino with Lance in '91-'92 when I first moved to Austin. I always thought he was a great guy even before cancer. But he's old. In 1999-2001 Lance got stronger every year. In 2001 the only person who could beat Lance wore a cape. 2002-2003 he has gotten progressively weaker every year. Meanwhile Ulrich is set for a career year. He never intended to do that well in the TDF last year. It was '04 he'd had circled on his calendar all along. LOOK OUT!!! |
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19-02.-2004, 07:16 AM
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#12 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Posts: 1,672
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Re: Re: lance armstrong
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Then again, Jan might be worse if he only did one race a year. Some riders need competition to hone that fine edge they don't get with training. Lance seems to be able to do it on his own during training. That doesn't mean others would be capable of such internal motivation. |
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19-02.-2004, 07:24 AM
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#13 | |
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
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Re: Re: lance armstrong
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I agree that Ullrich is the man to beat this year. And he may not be beatable. I kind of wonder whether Ullrich would have had a better showing in the more current Tours if he had not come on so strong when he was young in 1997. Look how long he has taken to be considered the Tour favorite. From weight problems to recreational drug problems to knee problems, and finally he is at the top of his game again. I think there is a point to be made about being more conservative with your talents in your early 20's to prepare for late 20's consistency. At least Jan has shown the perseverance of a true champion. He's still in the game. I hope all these contenders: Ullrich, Armstrong, Beloki, Hamilton, Heras are at top form for the TdF. It will be an exciting tour. |
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19-02.-2004, 07:39 AM
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#14 | |
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Community Team
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: at the bar
Posts: 12,487
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Re: Re: Re: lance armstrong
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The obverse side of this arguement is that the really genuine contenders show their mettle in their early 20's : Here are some facts : Hianult and Merckx won their first TDF at the age of 23. Fignon won his first TDF at 24. Coppi won his first Giro at 21 years of age. Anquetil won his first TDF at 23. Bartali won his first Giro at 22. Ullrich won his first TDF at 23. BigMig was slightly older when he won his first TDF at 26. Armstrong was older still whn he won his first TDF at 28. |
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19-02.-2004, 10:55 AM
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#15 |
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Arizona (USA)
Posts: 1,141
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I have to chuckle at all the comments about Ullrich being the man to beat and being better than Armstrong.
Armstrong had difficulty last year mostly because Armstrong was weak, not because Ullrich was so strong. Several riders were giving Armstrong trouble, not just Ullrich. Ullrich may indeed do well in 2004. How well he does remains to be seen. Of course, the same can be said of Armstrong. For those who don't seem to notice, Armstrong has beaten Ullrich every time they've raced together in the Tour de France since 2000. People who like Ullrich seem to be pretty handy at forgetting that. Finally, Armstrong has acknowledged the fact that he doesn't compete in a lot of races the way the other 5-time winners did. He's also made the prediction that this will be the continuing trend for consistent winners of the Tour de France due to increased pressures to win, the constant "raising of the bar" in terms of what it takes to win, etc. Time will tell whether he is wrong or right. In the mean time, he's winning the Tour de France because that's what he's setting out to do. How many other races he does or does not compete in is his choice and, in my opinion, takes nothing away from his Tour de France wins. |
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