Ullrich 25 seconds back

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by Michael, Jul 4, 2004.

  1. Michael

    Michael Guest

    That's not the way he wants to start this race.

    Mike
     
    Tags:


  2. Daremo

    Daremo Guest

    First stage ......... gimme a break ..........

    He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
    with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

    People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
    realistic about things.

    OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.

    But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
    with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.



    --
     
  3. Michael

    Michael Guest

    "Daremo" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
    news:HU_Fc.3136$J31.3134@fe43.usenetserver.com...
    > First stage ......... gimme a break ..........
    >
    > He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
    > with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.


    It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about where he's going to
    pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few more seconds in
    the TTT.

    The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not how Ullrich wanted
    to start.

    M.
     
  4. Michael wrote:

    > That's not the way he wants to start this race.
    >
    > Mike
    >
    >


    not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
    where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
    allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
    wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
    it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.
     
  5. Daremo wrote:

    > First stage ......... gimme a break ..........
    >
    > He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
    > with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.
    >
    > People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
    > realistic about things.
    >
    > OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.
    >
    > But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
    > with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.



    As I've said before, that's time Jan has to make up. He'd be much
    better off if it were 2 or 3 seconds. This cushion is like money in the
    bank to Lance, as last year there was a crash that held him up and
    something like that happening again would be harrowing if he didn't have
    that time. It's nice to have, it's a drag if you have to make it up and
    then pile more time into your opponenet, where you'd like to be more even.
     
  6. curt

    curt Guest

    "Daremo" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
    news:HU_Fc.3136$J31.3134@fe43.usenetserver.com...
    > First stage ......... gimme a break ..........
    >
    > He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
    > with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.
    >
    > People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
    > realistic about things.
    >
    > OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.
    >
    > But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
    > with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.


    Agreed. How silly to say that this is a big deal for Jan. It is nothing and
    the race is young to say the least.

    Curt
     
  7. > not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
    > where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
    > allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
    > wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
    > it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.


    Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was there; we had a
    dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They were most
    definitely not comfortable with what had gone on; in hindsight they regarded
    it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that sometimes, not too
    often but sometimes, the jersey makes the man. I believe there was some
    (although slight) fear that Simon might ride better than he was capable of;
    O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if I recall
    correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it appears that we
    (spectators/those who don't know any better) were more concerned about
    O'Grady, because he was someone we knew something about.

    Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.

    --Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
    www.ChainReactionBicycles.com
     
  8. psycholist

    psycholist Guest

    "Mike Jacoubowsky" <mikej1@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
    news:_E%Fc.6370$hZ.4413@newssvr25.news.prodigy.com...
    > > not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
    > > where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
    > > allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
    > > wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
    > > it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

    >
    > Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was there; we had

    a
    > dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They were most
    > definitely not comfortable with what had gone on; in hindsight they

    regarded
    > it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that sometimes, not too
    > often but sometimes, the jersey makes the man. I believe there was some
    > (although slight) fear that Simon might ride better than he was capable

    of;
    > O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if I recall
    > correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it appears that we
    > (spectators/those who don't know any better) were more concerned about
    > O'Grady, because he was someone we knew something about.
    >
    > Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.
    >
    > --Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
    > www.ChainReactionBicycles.com
    >


    You didn't mention the late Kivelev. Wasn't he in that huge break and
    wasn't he the last one to yield his advantage? I'm asking 'cuz I don't
    exactly recall. I seem to recall him being a threat well into the race ...
    longer even than Simon.

    Bob C.
     
  9. fstrnu

    fstrnu Guest

    You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan. He
    will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
    draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all
    over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.

    "Richard Adams" <ackthpt@concentric.net> wrote in message
    news:cc9u7s$sur@dispatch.concentric.net...
    > Michael wrote:
    >
    > > That's not the way he wants to start this race.
    > >
    > > Mike
    > >
    > >

    >
    > not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
    > where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
    > allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
    > wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
    > it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.
    >
    >
     
  10. Chris

    Chris Guest

    "Michael" <mdw3@nospam.cornell.edu> wrote in message
    news:_Z_Fc.18783$Ss4.12766@twister.rdc-kc.rr.com...
    >
    > "Daremo" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
    > news:HU_Fc.3136$J31.3134@fe43.usenetserver.com...
    > > First stage ......... gimme a break ..........
    > >
    > > He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
    > > with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

    >
    > It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about where he's going

    to
    > pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few more seconds in
    > the TTT.
    >
    > The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not how Ullrich

    wanted
    > to start.
    >
    > M.


    Actually, it is precisely how he wants to start. I am sure he wishes Lance
    approached it the same way...Jan claims he put safety at the top of his
    priority list. Ullrich has not had a lot of bad falls in his career but he
    did lose plenty of racing after at least one tumble and this boy knows what
    he is doing considering his record here at the Tour, having never finished
    lower than second. Another point is that he often lost to riders he beat in
    the prolog so he knows precisely how important it is or isn't.
     
  11. Chris

    Chris Guest

    "fstrnu" <fstrnu@punk.com> wrote in message
    news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...
    > You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan. He
    > will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
    > draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all
    > over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.


    LOL. Look at how many times Ullrich has been beaten (by one place on GC!!!)
    by riders he beat in the prolog. Maybe he considers it a jinx to beat a
    favored rider. In 1998 when Ullrich was defending his '97 win he was beaten
    by Pantani, who was 181st out of 189 riders and 48 seconds back after the
    prolog. Ullrich was 6th in the prolog that year and beat everyone in the
    race but Pantani.

    The prolog is an early indicator of form. Most agree that this Tour will be
    won by the contender who hits form in the third week. Both LA and Jan had
    said that they wanted to arrive at this year's Tour a little under their
    peak. It looks like Jan did just that and got through the prolog as he
    expected.
     
  12. AMG

    AMG Guest

    On Sun, 04 Jul 2004 18:00:23 -0400, Richard Adams wrote:

    > Daremo wrote:
    >
    >> First stage ......... gimme a break ..........
    >>
    >> He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time trial,
    >> with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.
    >>
    >> People trying to make a huge deal out of the prologue, need to get
    >> realistic about things.
    >>
    >> OK, if he loses the whole GC by 16 seconds, then it would be important.
    >>
    >> But my prediction is, whomever wins this whole shabang is going to do it
    >> with a 3-5 minute blowout of the opponents, not seconds like last year.

    >
    >
    > As I've said before, that's time Jan has to make up. He'd be much
    > better off if it were 2 or 3 seconds. This cushion is like money in the
    > bank to Lance, as last year there was a crash that held him up and
    > something like that happening again would be harrowing if he didn't have
    > that time. It's nice to have, it's a drag if you have to make it up and
    > then pile more time into your opponenet, where you'd like to be more even.


    Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin from last year, and
    IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both LA and Jan pretend otherwise, and, as
    Lance is fond of saying, "anything can happen..." But I'm sure he is happy
    to have banked the time. Plus, putting 15 s into Ullrich (and more into
    the other contenders) is bound to have a demoralizing effect, even if
    slight; this will counteract to some degree the blood-in-the-water
    feeding tendencies that LA's seemingly weak performance last year might
    have encouraged... Psychological warfare.

    --AMG
     
  13. fstrnu

    fstrnu Guest

    Agreed. Jan knows exactly how to make 2nd! ROFL...

    "Chris" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    news:40e88e53$0$55697$812600b3@news.nntpaccess.com...
    >
    > "Michael" <mdw3@nospam.cornell.edu> wrote in message
    > news:_Z_Fc.18783$Ss4.12766@twister.rdc-kc.rr.com...
    > >
    > > "Daremo" <usenet-forum@cyclingforums.com> wrote in message
    > > news:HU_Fc.3136$J31.3134@fe43.usenetserver.com...
    > > > First stage ......... gimme a break ..........
    > > >
    > > > He's only 16 back of Armstrong based on a whopping 3.8 mile time

    trial,
    > > > with light mist in certain areas and some sharp turns.

    > >
    > > It's early, yes, but now he has to start thinking about where he's going

    > to
    > > pick that back up because he knows he may lose a few more seconds in
    > > the TTT.
    > >
    > > The race isn't over, obviously, but as I said, this is not how Ullrich

    > wanted
    > > to start.
    > >
    > > M.

    >
    > Actually, it is precisely how he wants to start. I am sure he wishes Lance
    > approached it the same way...Jan claims he put safety at the top of his
    > priority list. Ullrich has not had a lot of bad falls in his career but he
    > did lose plenty of racing after at least one tumble and this boy knows

    what
    > he is doing considering his record here at the Tour, having never finished
    > lower than second. Another point is that he often lost to riders he beat

    in
    > the prolog so he knows precisely how important it is or isn't.
    >
    >
    >
    >
     
  14. fstrnu

    fstrnu Guest

    Agreed. If anything, Jan can prove that he knows how to lose. You can't
    predict Lance's future based on Jan's past. If anything, this supports that
    he's washed up. It's over. Don't murder the messenger. I'm happy he won,
    but would have preferred at least some thrill beforehand. Bummed out, for
    sure...

    "Chris" <chrismcreynolds@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    news:40e897b4$0$59993$812600b3@news.nntpaccess.com...
    >
    > "fstrnu" <fstrnu@punk.com> wrote in message
    > news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...
    > > You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan.

    He
    > > will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
    > > draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's

    all
    > > over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.

    >
    > LOL. Look at how many times Ullrich has been beaten (by one place on

    GC!!!)
    > by riders he beat in the prolog. Maybe he considers it a jinx to beat a
    > favored rider. In 1998 when Ullrich was defending his '97 win he was

    beaten
    > by Pantani, who was 181st out of 189 riders and 48 seconds back after the
    > prolog. Ullrich was 6th in the prolog that year and beat everyone in the
    > race but Pantani.
    >
    > The prolog is an early indicator of form. Most agree that this Tour will

    be
    > won by the contender who hits form in the third week. Both LA and Jan had
    > said that they wanted to arrive at this year's Tour a little under their
    > peak. It looks like Jan did just that and got through the prolog as he
    > expected.
    >
    >
    >
    >
     
  15. > Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin from last year, and
    > IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both LA and Jan pretend otherwise, and, as
    > Lance is fond of saying, "anything can happen..."


    I have no doubt that Lance sees "15 seconds" as something more than
    symbolic. We've even seen him contest a few sprints lately... there may be
    times those finishing bonuses could be a very handy thing to have.

    --Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
    www.ChainReactionBicycles.com
     
  16. Michael

    Michael Guest

    "Mike Jacoubowsky" <mikej1@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
    news:r53Gc.6653$zE2.1958@newssvr25.news.prodigy.com...
    > > Fifteen seconds is one quarter of the winning margin from last year, and
    > > IMHO, is not to be sneered at. Both LA and Jan pretend otherwise, and, as
    > > Lance is fond of saying, "anything can happen..."

    >
    > I have no doubt that Lance sees "15 seconds" as something more than
    > symbolic. We've even seen him contest a few sprints lately... there may be
    > times those finishing bonuses could be a very handy thing to have.
    >
    > --Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
    > www.ChainReactionBicycles.com


    That's right. It's early and it's 25 seconds. But Ullrich is going to have to wonder
    about how this race is going to shape up.

    Where else can he make it up? Historically, the only place he has beaten
    Armstrong is in the TTs, and only once. Last year, in the second TT, he
    took a minute from Armstrong, but not in the final TT, and not in this
    Prologue TT. He'll look to have a little better luck in a longer TT.

    Team TT? No chance. He'll lose a little time.

    The mountain stages? Of course, some time, Armstrong is going to crack
    in the mountains. It may happen this year, but his training shows that is
    highly unlikely. He's in terrific shape and has enormous confidence. Ullrich
    has no history of leaving Armstrong behind in the mountains.

    Yes, it's way early, but for Ullrich, 25 seconds looms large.

    Mike
     
  17. Dave H

    Dave H Guest

    "Michael" <mdw3@nospam.cornell.edu> wrote in message
    news:Ux_Fc.18630$Ss4.4924@twister.rdc-kc.rr.com...
    > That's not the way he wants to start this race.
    >
    > Mike



    how the hell do you know how he wants to race?
    Dave
     
  18. Dave H

    Dave H Guest

    "fstrnu" <fstrnu@punk.com> wrote in message
    news:_%%Fc.23271$a24.22076@attbi_s03...
    > You guys are all missing the boat. Those seconds put pressure on Jan. He
    > will have to make a move and Armstrong can just recline on his bike and
    > draft all the way up the climbs. Short of a crash by Armstrong, it's all
    > over now. Sucks that it's over so soon.


    dude, go smoke some more crack
    Dave
     
  19. psycholist wrote:
    > "Mike Jacoubowsky" <mikej1@ix.netcom.com> wrote in message
    > news:_E%Fc.6370$hZ.4413@newssvr25.news.prodigy.com...
    >
    >>>not 25 down from his main competition, however. What year was it, 2001?
    >>>where several riders had a 35 minute gap on the peleton and were just
    >>>allowed to get away? Resulted in Stuart O'Grady, then Francios Simon
    >>>wearing the Maillot Jaune for quite a while, until Lance finally ripped
    >>>it off Francois' tired ol' body in the Pyrenees.

    >>
    >>Yes, 2001. That will not be allowed to happen again. I was there; we had

    >
    > a
    >
    >>dinner that night with one of the team support guys. They were most
    >>definitely not comfortable with what had gone on; in hindsight they

    >
    > regarded
    >
    >>it as a serious tactical error. The problem is that sometimes, not too
    >>often but sometimes, the jersey makes the man. I believe there was some
    >>(although slight) fear that Simon might ride better than he was capable

    >
    > of;
    >
    >>O'Grady wasn't considered such a big issue by the team, if I recall
    >>correctly. However, in looking at my notes, it appears that we
    >>(spectators/those who don't know any better) were more concerned about
    >>O'Grady, because he was someone we knew something about.
    >>
    >>Seems so long ago, and yet it really wasn't. Just 4 years.
    >>
    >>--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles
    >>www.ChainReactionBicycles.com
    >>

    >
    >
    > You didn't mention the late Kivelev. Wasn't he in that huge break and
    > wasn't he the last one to yield his advantage? I'm asking 'cuz I don't
    > exactly recall. I seem to recall him being a threat well into the race ...
    > longer even than Simon.
    >
    > Bob C.
    >
    >


    Kivilev finished with a good placing, but it wasn't he who relieved
    Simon of the Maillot Jaune. Dangerous to let a ringer go like that,
    however.
     
  20. Pistof

    Pistof Guest

    If you know so much, why don't you call the poor inexperienced Ullrich up
    and give him some tips?

    Jan is doing just dandy.

    "Michael" <mdw3@nospam.cornell.edu> wrote in message
    news:Ux_Fc.18630$Ss4.4924@twister.rdc-kc.rr.com...
    > That's not the way he wants to start this race.
    >
    > Mike
    >
    >
     
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