Originally posted by DiabloScott
Why don't you get some evidence then? Look up the average speed of flat stages then and now, and the average speed of mountain stages then and now. It wouldn't be perfect evidence but it would be better than just thinking about it. I think maybe you're afraid of real evidence. The profile differences you mention actually bolster my theory because the flat stages would be much faster and the mountain stages would only be a little bit faster.
2003 TDF contained more mountain stages than the 1989 TDF.
The profile of the climbs in the 1989 were shoter and less difficult than the 2003.
(2003 version contained the Tourmalet for example).
I have no data on the flat stages as of now.
But let me see can I generate some data for same.
Then why don't you respond to it? The average speed of EVERY SINGLE RIDER has gone up by essentially the same amount. How can you possibly twist this statistic into saying that only Armstrong is cheating?
The question/thought that I posed didn't concern the peleton in general.
I specified Armstrong's metamorphisis from one day rider (1992-1996) to stage race winner (1998-present).
The assertion that whole peleton is therefore 3.1 kilometres faster than the 1989 peleton is a general observation on your part.
It doesn't explain away Armstrong's transformation between 1996-1998 from one day specialist (and I have to say here that I have never questioned his ability as a cyclist - I do question his ability to dominate stage racing since 1998).
I've been watching this sport for many years as well. One thing I've learned: it's PELOTON - one "e" two "o"s - it means platoon in French.
As a teenager, Armstrong scored the highest VO2 max anyone had ever seen and even before his first year as a pro he was identified as someone with supreme athletic ability.
Armstrong may well have a had highest VO2 max ever seen.
If he had this great engine in 1991/1992 when he was a neopro,
how come he never won any of the great stage races up to '96?
The fact that he had this capacity (if indeed he did have this capacity), would suggest that he should have been more successful in stage races than he was between 1992-1996
(OK he did win the Tour DuPont but forgive me here but the Tour DuPont is some way short of a Paris Nice or Tour of Lombardy : never mind a TDF).
Armstrong won a Tour stage and the rainbow jersey before his cancer, that's nothing to you?
Yes, these were great victories but like I stated early these are one days races and stage race race vitories such as the Maillot Jeune in the TDF.
Also I re-iterate here, I never questioned Armstrong's cycling ability, as a one day winner.
What I question is how a one day cyclist, became, after a life threatening illness, a totally dominant TDF cyclist.
That's the issue, for me.
Jalabert made the switch from sprinter to GC rider - not quite as dramatic of a change but the same kind of transformation.
Jalabert is an interesting example.
Laurent turned pro in 1989 and I agree he was initally a sprinter.
However in 1992, he won the gree points jersey in the TDF.
In three years, he delivered on his potential.
From sprint specialist (your view) to GC candidate shows demonstrable progression.
His success from 1992 onwards was a progression.
Laurent went on to win great stage races throughout his career
(look at his record in 1995 alone).
Laurent's pedigree was never, ever in question.
Compare and contrast this to Lance Armstrong : at best he was a very good one day cyclist.
Between 1992-1996, there is no indication of progression to substantiate what we have seen from him since 1998.
No, you want to believe that he's cheating and you're turning a blind eye to the real evidence: hundreds of controls all passed while others fail.
I can only say once again that I do want to believe because Arnmstrong's story is great - it gives hope to people with terminal illness.
It also gives our sport a great profile.
What I am afraid of is that if his record is due to something other than hardwork, ability, self sacrfice, that this would be a tragedy.
I care deeply about our sport : I want it and it competitors to be beyond any inference or possible blemish from the use of performance enhancing drugs.
Armstrong is the current flag bearer of our sport and too many doubts have been expressed by the media about his performances.
In trying to be objective, I have sought to look at the empirical evidence to back up what we've seen since 1998 from Armstrong.
Sadly the evidence is lacking - and on that basis-only, do I question what we've seen since 1998.
I sincerely hope that I am wrong and that indeed, Armtrong's
record since 1998 is due to hardwork, ability, self sacrfice.